LIVE: The Trade That Could Define 2026 (How to Take Advantage)

All right, all right. Welcome in. Welcome in.

We are about to get into it today. We're going to review what's happened over the past week.

We're going to talk about the AI tech sell off. We're going to talk about what's been going on with precious metals.

We're going to talk about bitcoin and whether or not we're in a bear market and whether or not this bounce is actually going to be sustained or if we're going to continue to see declines in the market.

We're going to dive into the charts and look at some economic data as well. And we'll even do a little bit of a review on some of the comments that Scott Besant has made over in Washington.

And then we'll talk about the biggest trade of 2026 and what I think will be the defining thing to look at.

So welcome in, everybody. Let me know if y' all can hear me in the chat down below.

And I'm just gonna go ahead and start diving into some news as we prepare for the main conversation of the day.

So give me just a second here. I'm gonna pull up some news.

It's been a very wild week, so this will be fun to look at.

So

just yesterday we had the president of the United States come out and make a statement talking about how he is expecting the dow

to reach 100,000 by the end of his term

and to remember that he was right about everything.

And what he says at the end of this is that he hopes that the United States Supreme Court is watching.

And now the relevance

of this statement in particular

is that the Supreme Court has to make a decision on whether or not his tariffs are going to be considered constitutional or legal.

And if not, right then a lot of the plans that the entire administration has could easily get thrown off.

And in that case, right, Dow, the Dow Jones being at 100,000 is probably not super likely. And so just for

some

reference of 100,000,

the Dow Jones is currently at 50,000. Right. So he's saying that the stock market, the Dow Jones is going to double okay.

By the end of his term. Now one of the things here to also chat about on this is first off, we can see that the Dow Jones closed at an all time high on Friday.

All right. And this is something worth looking at versus we had this huge sell off in the Nasdaq right throughout the week due to earnings releases.

We're going to dive into that a lot further today. But we can see that the end of the week had A huge surge.

Right.

Kind of a similar scenario for when you're looking at Bitcoin. Right. Bitcoin dumped, Massively massive dump.

And then had a nice little bit of recovery and potentially going to continue hybrid. We'll talk a little bit more about that as we go on.

But let me just continue to go through some of the most recent news.

Let people come in. Welcome in, everybody. Welcome in.

So China has expanded their crypto crackdown to stable coins and asset tokenization. So essentially, China is concerned about the fact that if stable coins and decentralized technologies such as blockchain and so on become

utilized throughout their country, well, they're going to lose control over their monetary policy. Okay.

And that's something that they don't want. So stablecoins are digital money and they're issued by private entities.

Right. And most of them are foreign entities. Most of the money that's in

these Chinese cryptos is not, excuse me, most stable coins are being issued from United States issuers.

Right. So they're trying to keep the US from being able to actually have influence over their monetary system.

Right. We've talked about this on the channel. It's really important to China to maintain control over their monetary system and stable coins and real world assets and all of that does not work well with that thinking.

So just something that I wanted to touch on,

another thing that is in the crypto arena that you might want to be aware of, is that the White House is going to host its second meeting on stablecoin yield this upcoming week on Tuesday.

Shout out to Eleanor Tourette. She is an incredible reporter. She came out of cnbc, I believe, and now is doing her thing.

So she's got huge roots in the White house and in D.C. and she's letting us know that there was an initial meeting last week, but there's going to be a second gathering about this issue of stablecoin

yields next week as well. So we'll keep an eye on that to see what exactly we can expect. Now, we also have had

the SEC chair, Paul Atkins, talk about the fact that he wants to make IPOs great again. He wants to bring IPOs back to the United States.

And this is going to be a massive thing to watch this year because we've got a lot of private companies that are looking at going public.

And it's, it's really,

if, if we do see IPOs make a big comeback this year, that's going to contribute probably to a massive amount of obviously, capital raising.

Right. That's going to take place but then also huge opportunities for just. You don't raise money in an economy that's not doing well.

You don't raise money in an economic and investment environment that's not doing well. So if we get the Fed to lower rates and we get a bunch of companies ipoing in the next year or two, we can see the stock market do absolutely crazy numbers.

Let's hear what Paul Atkins had to say about this here. About half, we're now about half or so of the number of public companies that were

listed 30 years ago, about 40% down. So that is also concerning because that's much more concentration in our markets.

And some of that is the Magnificent Seven, which you've heard about. And they make up a larger percent of at least the indices

S&P 500 and whatnot, but still a larger percent of our marketplace. So we need desperately to, I think, to boost this population of public companies.

And it's declined over the years because you have bankruptcies and you have mergers and acquisitions and that sort of thing.

But like with any population, unless you have newbies coming in

to replace the ones that go away, then the population will decline. So that's what we're facing now. And so we need to make, like I said, cool to be an IPO again, to be a public company again and make IPOs great again.

And so the thing about what's happened over the past few years here with the previous administration is that a lot of public raising as well as mergers and acquisitions were not occurring.

Right. So you had less and less people going public. You had less and less companies doing mergers. You had Lina Khan and the FTC

basically preventing a lot of M and A transactions from happening. And essentially, I mean, there's always things to consider as far as M and A in today's world, especially where we have these large giant tech companies that kind of already control and own everything.

So you're trying to. So what the FTC was trying to do is prevent there from being these massive monopolies and preventing there from being these companies that are just the absolute juggernauts of industry

having complete monopolies and pricing power over the population, but at the same time trying to encourage growth within the economy.

And when you're not allowed to make these transactions of any sort or even to pursue them because you know that they're not going to go, well, it can pin.

It can pinned up a lot of investment money that would be moving around, and it keeps it kind of held back.

So I'm not saying there's an easy answer to which one of those approaches can be more helpful. To just let everybody buy whoever they want or to always completely make it to where buying anything is extremely difficult.

There's not really an easy answer to that. There's always a balance to that. But that's one side of things is the M and A side.

And then there's also these IPOs. And a lot of money also has been being raised in private markets. There hasn't even been a need so much for companies to come out and raise money from the public because all of these private investors have all of the money that they need.

So we've seen companies now like SpaceX, right, reaching, I think it's like a trillion dollar market cap without even having to go public.

And like that's, that's, that's insanity. So the problem with that is that the average American doesn't necessarily get the opportunity to participate in the wealth generation that's happening behind the scenes.

And so we want to find ways to allow other people, the average American, to participate in this wealth generation that's happening.

So I'll move on from that and we'll talk a little bit more about some of the things that Paul Atkins, the chairman of the SEC, has also said about crypto and what's coming next for market structure.

Genius act was great. It focused on, on stablecoins and put them squarely in the banking sector. So my good friend and controller of the currency, Jonathan Gould, is working diligently on

coming up with that regulatory framework for stablecoins with respect to other sorts of things. I gave a speech a few months ago delineating

what we are going to be working on and coming out with here shortly is a taxonomy so called as to, you know, what are digital commodities versus tokenized security so we can give clarity to the marketplace as to what it is.

And as Chairman Selig was talking about, and the regulation through enforcement that has so long bedeviled this whole area of financial services, even predating the whole crypto world and going back, you know, decades, as we about talked between, you know, what's in the CFTC realm, what's in the SEC's realm.

So there are digital commodities and digital tools and digital collectibles that, you know, we have described and we'll be outlining in regulation.

And then we have tokenized securities. Yes. So the genius.

So volume there was a little bit low for everyone that's trickling in. We're just taking a second to go over some of the news.

So that you guys can come in and then we'll start to dive a little bit deeper into

what could be the biggest opportunity of 2026 and really this tech sell off in the AI bubble and everything that's happening around that.

So stick with me here. We also had some really important economic data coming out over the past week also.

Welcome to Joshua Pullen to becoming a channel member. Thank you, Joshua Pullen. We appreciate you.

You're asking me about the files, guys, I'm really not going to talk about the files. I'm just going to be honest with you.

That's something that I haven't spent a whole lot of time on and it's just something that I.

We'll try to avoid as far as getting into politics on this channel. So ISM Manufacturing PMI came out this week and

this was a very interesting thing to see. So we had the ISM manufacturing PMI actually tick up. Okay.

For the first time that we've seen meaningfully in a couple of years. Right. The last time we meaningfully had a positive ISM for the manufacturing sector was back in 2022.

And what this is, is really just a read on. Well, let's, let's tell you what exactly it says. So

this is a leading indicator of economic health and businesses are reacting to this based upon what they believe about marketing, excuse me, about market conditions.

And this is a survey of 300 purchasing managers and asked respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories.

Now there's two different major ISM PMIs to look at. One of them is the manufacturing PMI and the other one is the services pmi.

Now this week we got both of them and the services, right? Services make up a large portion of the US economy.

Okay? More and more of the US economy is going towards services versus towards the manufacturing sector.

And now the US is trying to remedy that. They're trying to bring things back to being more about manufacturing.

But because manufacturing is so rooted into the fundamental level of the economy and what actual atoms are moving around within the economy, it can be a gauge on how the business cycle is actually doing.

And Raoul Pal, someone who talks about this quite often has very much so linked this ISM manufacturing index to, to what the potential is for crypto.

Right? So

just something that we want to look at here. I'll maybe look up really quickly. Ram

manufacturing. Oops.

So you guys can see what I'm talking about. He basically

has said that the four year cycle isn't much of a real thing. And what really is going on is that the ISM

manufacturing index has almost always been in high correlation with the price of bitcoin.

Hey, Street Guru 6240, I really appreciate you there. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

So just something to take a look at, right, is could this actually be a sign that things could be getting a little bit better for crypto in the near future, moving forward?

So something to keep an eye on now. All right, guys, I think we've got a nice amount of people in the room, so we can start to get a little bit deeper into this.

And we're just doing a quick overview of what happened in the economy over the last week as well. So I said manufacturing ticked up.

We've had the jolts, job openings

lower than expected. Okay. So we've had less job openings in the economy than we had ever expected.

All right. And

that they're not ever expected, but that we expected for this time around.

And with that, people are concerned that the labor market might not be as strong as

predicted. And when you really look at the trend here, right, the amount of job openings that are coming out every month is going down precipitously.

Honestly. Now, these aren't levels that are lower than the levels that we've necessarily seen in the past, but there is a downward trend that we have to keep an eye on.

And this most recent mission is very dramatic compared to some of the other ones that we've seen so far.

Now, technically, right, we're in a regime right now where good news, excuse me, bad news is kind of good news, and good news can kind of be bad news.

The reason that bad news, like the fact that job openings are going down is potentially good news for the markets is because that means that the Federal Reserve has more of an opportunity to be able to cut rates without having to think about other things.

Now, that brings us into the next point here, which is that we have the truflation index coming in a little bit lower as we continue to try to monitor the situation outside of simply looking at the government data.

So truflation, the US CPI inflation that this company, private company, is measuring, they use their own metrics.

They look at this stuff daily. Most of it is coming from retailers and so on, like Amazon. Now, this isn't the bible to look at when it comes to economic data, but it is something worth keeping an eye on.

And so the Truflation US CPI index has been at 0.86%. Okay. Which is down even further. All right? And he said they said that this was driven mainly by rented dwellings.

So the rent prices are apparently coming down in some parts of the economy. And this is a part of what we're looking at in the economy.

So if you have

a weaker labor market and you have lower inflation, then it's very easy to ease monetary conditions, to increase investment in the economy without having any issues.

You need to get more investment happening to get more jobs in place. And you can afford a little bit of inflation because in reality, the numbers of real inflation are a little bit lower than what the CPI and the government might be telling us now.

Once again, this is just truflation's measure of the cpi. They have their own ways of looking at that and you can continue to study that on your own time as well.

Now, we had Scott Bessant in the White house or in D.C. throughout the week and he was on Capitol Hill specifically dealing with Congress and he had to provide some testimony.

Now, we had some very exciting moments from that. A lot of fun, a lot of hoopla. But there was also this moment here that I think is worth listening to because we had Senator Warren talking to Scott Bessant about what's happening in the economy regarding inflation and affordability.

And also she brings up the incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh and what could be happening with that as well.

So, yep, thanks everybody. Coming in. We're going to continue to kind of just talk about what happened over this past week.

And then we're going to talk about the tech sell off, what's going on with precious metals, bitcoin, what we think is coming next.

And then we'll continue to dive deeper into the charts and what's actually going on there. And then we'll talk about the biggest trade opportunity of 2026.

So let's hear what went on here. So for a solid year while he ran for president, Donald Trump promised pretty much every day that he was going to lower costs on day one, on day one, if he was elected.

Those were his words, not mine. So, Secretary Bessie, you are one of the president's top economic advisers.

Let's just start with a little truth telling about the Trump economy. One year in, affordability is the top concern for Americans across the country.

Donald Trump has called affordability, I want to get this right, a hoax. He's called it a scam. He's called it a con job.

You're the Secretary of Treasury, you know the numbers. Is affordability a hoax, a scam or a con job?

Senator? It may be a bit nuanced for You. But what President Trump is referring to is the media saying that the affordability crisis was generated by this administration when it was you and President Biden who destroyed the buying power of the American people.

So there is an affordability crisis and you were front and center in it. So let me make sure that I understand.

Donald Trump is not saying that affordability, what's happening to families right now, is a hoax. He is saying the trying to lay the blame at this administration rather than the Biden Warren economy is a hoax.

Okay, so it all happened before he got it. And everything that's happened since then, nothing is a hoax.

21.5% cumulative inflation. Let me just ask about what's happened in the one year that Donald Trump has been president.

Last week, President Trump said, quote, we have the groceries going down. Did grocery Prices drop in 2025?

Numerous prices have did grocery prices drop in 2025? Numerous grocery prices have gone down. I'm sorry, I don't know if you can't hear me.

Did grocery prices drop in 2025? Numerous grocery prices have gone down.

So basically they go on back and forth about this for quite some time and eventually she ends up asking him about the incoming Fed chair and whether or not

Trump may be able to sue him or whatever. And essentially what we're trying to outline here is that

Kevin Wash coming in to the Fed right now is going to have, in my eyes, a very easy shot at being able to lower rates.

Okay. I don't think there's going to be much of an issue right. When we've got prices, potentially the real inflation metrics coming down, and a weaker labor market, it's not going to be that hard for Kevin Warren to lower rates.

Everyone keeps on calling him hawkish. And I just, I understand that there's assets on the Fed's balance sheet that need to come down.

But there's also the fact that there's a lot of room here to lower interest rates. So if they're lowering interest rates and they can spur investment into the economy, then them trying to get tightening, potentially through getting assets off of the Fed's balance sheet, it could potentially balance itself out.

And more importantly, what Kevin Wash has talked about is he wants to make sure that the gains that are coming into the economy are actually going toward the Main street and to the average everyday person.

So we'll see how all of this actually plays out. Now, someone has been in the chat talking about what's the biggest trade of 2026.

Now, you need this context, okay, to understand what is going on? So

first off, let's talk about what happened with tech this week. We had a huge sell off in the middle of the week because of Claude Code essentially announcing this.

They've released this new version of Claude code and in this a bunch of companies were essentially being threatened around whether or not this Claude Code update would, or Claude Anthropic's update in general would actually replace a lot of software companies is basically what was going on.

So let's hear a little bit of what the news was saying about this and we're going to break down what's really going on.

We're going to talk about why this is super important to understand what the biggest trade opportunity of 2026 actually is.

So here what they have to say here.

Dollars wiped out from big tech market caps in just the last week as those four large hyperscalers announced they expect to spend more than $600 billion in capex this year.

Our dear DeBosa has more on that in today's tech check. Happy Friday, Dean. Hey, happy Friday morning, Carl.

So this really gets a contradiction right now at the heart of the AI trade, software stocks, they're in free fall.

And the logic here is that while I work so well, it's going to keep these companies alive. Yet the other side of this is, is the mega caps they're building for exactly that.

Spending hundreds of billions of dollars to make AI that is powerful and yet they're getting punished too.

So you gotta wonder which is it AI that is so good it destroys SaaS but the companies building it are wasting their money.

Both of these things, they can't be true. Meta might be the best example of this contradiction. It is spending more on AI as a percentage of revenue.

50 cents on every dollar is going back into infrastructure. Amazon's ratio is half of that with an actual very large cloud business.

Yet it's the one selling off. Yes, Meta's top line growth, it has accelerated. But capex to revenue is growing faster than that.

And its operating margins, they fell from 48 to 41 year over year. Free cash flow fell 15% last year.

And given what they're planning to spend this year, it could get cut in half or much worse. Now I spoke to someone who sits right in the middle of all of this, Vercelsio Guillermo Roche, who built on top of OpenAI and Anthropic.

He said that one person billion dollar company is well within sight. So the market may be selling the old winners and the big spenders, but leaving room for a Whole new set of companies it hasn't yet priced in.

Guys, we may be about to find out how this all gets resolved. OpenAI is preparing for what could be a trillion dollar IPO anthropic, reportedly in early talks as well.

To go public with when they file, they will have to open the books fully. Revenue margins, burn rate, all of it.

And then the market won't have to guess whether the trade makes sense. It'll actually have the hard numbers.

And that'll be really interesting, guys. Meantime, a lot of desks today talking about Amazon, you know, asking why open down 9 when NWC is growing at the fastest in 3 years.

Backlog growing faster than revenue in 78.

It's exactly this contradiction. Why are we punishing the companies that are making AI more powerful?

And we see the flip side, which is, you know, can disrupt software, the software trade. And so this is where it doesn't make sense.

Why is nothing working right now? And it may be something as simple as macro is more important right now.

It may just be that there's just so much uncertainty. I mean, look at the next few weeks and months. We're going to get more model releases.

This is going to change. So perhaps the market is kind of just waiting and seeing because the headlines in AI, the progress is coming so incredibly quickly.

It's really hard to tell what's going to be disrupted and what is going to survive.

So this week, huge drop off. Amazon was pretty much the major, major loser this week. Meanwhile, they were actually beating, okay, they beat their revenue estimates, their earnings per share was down by like one penny and investors sold the stock off by somewhere around 8%.

So the reason that this is so important to really try to get a grip on is because everyone is focused on whether or not AI is in a bubble, right?

Is AI in a massive bubble right now? And the truth is, is there's two incredible arguments to be made on whether or not AI is in the bubble.

And what's happened here, right, is companies saying these companies are investing too much money into capex.

They are Capex capital expenditures. These companies are taking their money and they're going and they're investing into physical things, right?

Things that can help them to grow their companies, their infrastructure chips as well as data centers, right?

Is really what's happening here specifically with these AI companies. So the, the headline was that this was all about Claude code, but that update that came out really I don't think was the actual answer to what happened.

I think a lot of what this is, is about the fact that these companies are going to be spending more and more on building out these data centers and people are questioning whether or not they're actually going to be able to earn a return off of that.

Now

something to support some of the fear around

these AI models and Claude being able to take away a lot of jobs, for instance, and also to replace software companies.

Goldman Sachs this week did say that they're going to be using Anthropic Squad to automate accounting compliance roles.

Now we've seen a nice amount of layoffs across all of these companies as well. Amazon also announced layoffs of about.

What was it?

Amazon also announced like 13,000 or 16,000 job cuts that they. 16,000 job cuts.

It was confirmed after an accidental email a week ago. And then in October last year, they also announced around 13,000 layoffs.

So you have

these companies that are laying people off. And essentially we talked about this in the video that came out today.

What's really happening here is that AI isn't necessarily right now contributing to more revenues, but instead it's compressing the cost, it's bringing the cost of everything down.

And so with that people are questioning is there actually going to be growth that is coming out of these companies that's worth paying all of these incredible multiples that, that investors are paying for these companies?

Now there have been some really interesting articles that have been put out. I shared some of this inside the, the members channels where we talked a little bit more.

We go in depth about this. So what was this? I go through this entire presentation Inside the members a16z, one of the most

prolific investors in AI and software period, Mark Andreessen and Jeff Horowitz I believe is his name.

They even pointed out in here that approximately 2/3 of private AI revenue is being generated by A16Z backed companies.

Now the reason we want to listen to what they have to say is because they are the deepest in this game in the private markets.

And they have a lot of information and data that we don't necessarily have access to. But they even did a little bit of research on what's happening in the public markets.

And right now the AI winners are winning very big. They say AI stocks account for around 78% of the S&P 500's return.

And that's going back to November 2022. Now

there is a heavy concentration. Okay, what they point out in all of this is that there's a heavy concentration

in the fact that the largest companies are the ones that are actually doing the best. Okay? So you're not getting away with

investing in smaller companies in order to actually take advantage of this AI boom. The largest companies are getting all of the gains.

And I break that down further once again inside of the member section. But there's. There's two things to really talk about here, about what happened this week.

Is software actually going to kill. Is AI actually going to kill software? Or as Steven Sinofsky has said, is AI actually going to lead to even more software?

And so

Stephen Sinofsky, okay, was someone who worked with Microsoft in the earlier days. So he's an American investor, businessman, software engineer, best known for his time at Microsoft Windows division president.

And he basically was around during building out the Microsoft Office suite and as well as the Surface tablet.

So he wrote this article for a 16z where he talks about basically how when we look through the past,

when we see these types of revolutions, you don't necessarily see things going away just because of the new update in technology, but instead, what you might actually see is an acceleration

in how much software is actually being able to be created because of AI. So this idea that AI is just going to kill software and is something that might be a little bit misguided.

But now there is someone else who I saw a really cool article from, talking about how this actually could lead to the death, the death of software.

And this is by Doug

o', Laughlin, okay? And so he's written about this quite a bit. And his. Basically his take is that there's a major compression that's coming into the multiples for these software companies, and, and there's going to be a new model for software based upon all of this.

Now, the thing that I wanted to point out today, right, the reason that I really wanted to come together, I'm not going to go too deep into all of that, but I just want you guys to see that there's two different sides to that debate.

The major thing that I saw that I thought was worth sharing was how this could actually lead to a totally different type of an opportunity than anyone is technically looking at.

I talked about this a little bit in the video today, and I talked about this a little bit on Twitter.

There's a guy named Mark Stein who put out an article in September 20, 2025, and he outlines why Exxon might be the next Nvidia.

Now, what he argues throughout all of this article is that when you look back through the past,

the companies that went crazy, for instance, in the 1968-1981 era, were energy,

industrial and builders,

okay? The real economy, he says, while growth stocks died.

Now

he also makes the idea that gold has already been leading, right? And the signal that paper assets are, is okay.

So the fact that gold has been going crazy

and hard assets are already winning, right? This is kind of a sign that this is the world that we're moving into.

So let's look at Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin got absolutely smashed over the past week. And let's zoom back out as well and look at gold really quickly.

Right? So he wrote this in September, okay, so this was back here, right? But gold was already going extremely well.

Okay. For the past couple of years, gold has been taken off. Same thing for silver, right?

Same thing for silver. Silver started to finally catch up to gold back here in the second half of 2025 and has made this huge jump up.

And what he's saying is that this is a sign of the fact that real world economy, right, is where the everything is headed.

This is just a front running, right, of what is going to be happening in the overall economy. When we look at what is AI, what are all these AI companies investing their money into?

They're investing their money into data centers, they're investing their money into chips.

They're going to have to have a hold of real materials, okay, in order to actually build all of this stuff out.

So when we go deeper into this article, we'll look at why he says growth is dead. So we talked about this earlier.

Tech is deflationary by nature. Software margins approach 100%. Prices collapse towards zero.

Automation eliminates labor. We are seeing that with Amazon, right? Tons and tons of jobs being eliminated from all of these tech companies.

Efficiency gains, me doing more with less. And so AI makes everything faster, cheaper, more efficient, which is he says is the opposite of growth.

But markets are pricing all of these magnificent seven companies for huge growth. But the entire purpose of AI is to reduce costs and compress margins.

So where is the GDP growth in that? He says that it's not coming. Tech creates value through deflation, not through expansion.

And governments are desperate for growth. So we've seen this, right? We've seen the Inflation Reduction act, the CHIPS Act, Project Genesis, Project Stargate, all of these different things that the US government alone has been doing to increase investment into AI.

We have projections of trillions of doll that's going to be invested into AI. But what that means right now is into data centers.

What that means right now is into things that are going to require energy, manufacturing commodities.

There are massive shortages of energy. Okay? In order for this AI reality to take place. And so let's see here.

I'm just make sure I'm checking all the comments. And so he points this out. He says, hey, there's a global energy crisis and US Shale is in the, in the spotlight.

So Saudi Arabia has no incentive to raise output. So there's an important thing to understand about the oil markets, right?

There is this large organization, it is technically a cartel and it's called the OPEC or the Oil producing,

what is it? Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Okay. And basically the number one

contributor to OPEC is Saudi Arabia. So he's talking about how Saudi Arabia has no incentive to raise their output.

They need $96 oil to balance their budget according to IMF 2024 estimates. So the way that

the oil markets essentially work is that you've got the OPEC and they come together to say how much oil production they're going to output because there's only a few different countries that really are producing.

All of the

OPEC comes together and they say, hey, everybody, come together. We're only going to produce this much oil, okay?

Nobody produce any more oil than this because if you do, then the prices are going to go down lower. Right?

The more supply with the same demand, it's going to lower the price. But they can also reduce how much output?

Right? If they're reducing how much output, then as they do that, then the price of oil can go up. And if we're paying close attention, we've seen just a little bit of a rise in the price of oil over the past few weeks.

Nothing major just yet. Nothing major, but with all of the geopolitical tensions going on, it is worth paying attention to.

We do have to keep our eyes on what's going on with oil because usually you get massive spikes when you have these geopolitical risks.

Now

he goes on to say in this article,

this was back in September, right? So we were still looking at $57 oil at that time. He said with WTI currently at $57 and trending lower, the Saudi Arabia Kingdom is managing production for higher prices and not flooding the market.

He said that OPEC discipline is holding because every member needs revenue. Swing production to suppress prices is over.

So swing production means the swing member, the members that have the ability to basically determine what's going to happen next.

Right? Because of they have like Saudi Arabia has insane amounts of oil, right? So they can essentially increase production or lower their production and have huge influences on the market.

But what he's saying is that Saudi Arabia has no incentive to,

to increase production because they need a higher price for oil. All right, and so, and then he goes on to also say that global energy investment has been starved for 15 years.

All of the ESG mandates, the energy transition narratives and political pressure has killed capital deployment into energy.

And yes, I saw someone pointing out about Venezuela. Right. I definitely think there's things worth paying attention to when it comes to Venezuela now.

Right, because why did the US do that? Part of it could be that we know that moving forward energy is going to be the massive answer to what is happening.

So he talks about the perfect storm that's been created. Wind, solar, scaling up, nuclear, building out, some magical breakthroughs happening there.

But it didn't happen, right? You've got a physics issue, he says, not an engineering challenge. You can't run a grid on weather dependent power without massive battery storage.

And the economics don't work at scale. He said Germany tried, Germany failed. Nuclear, right? Everyone has destroyed on its own.

There was a big incident that happened back in the day and people freaked out about it. And because of that, nuclear is bad and no more nuclear.

He said one disaster and we threw out the cleanest baseload power that we had. The uranium supply chain collapsed, Mining investment evaporated, enrichment capacity was mothballed.

Now AI data centers need massive power and everyone suddenly wants nuclear again. Except the supply chain is broken.

It'll take a decade minimum to rebuild. And this is so important to understand about the nuclear problem right now, because China on the other hand, has been very much so ahead of this and they have been building out, right, their nuclear power for years.

Okay, but the United States can't just flip a switch and all of a sudden build a bunch of nuclear power plants.

It's just something that doesn't happen that fast. So the major point that this guy is making here is that when you really look at what's happening,

the only real answer to fill the gap between where the energy demand is about to be and where we're at now is going to be

the old classic energy sources such as oil. Okay, so once again he says gold is leading because it always leads to transition from paper assets to hard assets.

It's not predicting inflation is confirming the regime change. Hard assets are the only answer when growth is dying and governments are printing money to force activity in the real economy.

Now this part right here was one of my favorite pieces. He says when growth exists, then markets use price to earnings multiples.

Earnings growth justifies higher valuations. But when growth Dies markets shift to asset based valuations.

What do you own? What can't be replicated, what is scarce. He says how Exxon was valued on nat net asset value during the 1970s.

Reserves in the ground, infrastructure that you couldn't rebuild. Refining capacity that took decades to construct.

Then came the shareholder value era. And everything then became about quarterly earnings and price to earnings ratios.

But in a zero growth commodity scarce hard asset regime, net asset value comes back. And Exxon's reserves aren't just barrels of oils of oil.

It's also 40 plus years of production from assets that can't be duplicated. The infrastructure is sunk capital already paid for.

The refining integration captures margins that nobody else can access.

So he talks about why Exxon specifically. Basically because they have a huge grip over the entire oil industry.

Now when we look at Exxon on the charts, we can see that Exxon has been performing very well since he's made these statements.

Okay, now this was back in September that he was saying this. The price was $114 at the time. You've got pretty much a 50% gain since then.

So trying to chase Exxon right now might not be the exact answer. But there are other ways to look at what's happening in the energy market and how you might be able to participate in this as well.

So there's two major things that we're basically saying are the, the major opportunity for. Okay, not showing the charts.

There's two major opportunities.

Let me go back and show you Exxon because I wasn't showing it. Sorry. Exxon right here. $148 back here in September it was 112ish dollars right here in this range.

Bang. Huge, huge gain since then. And this is only with a minor rise in the price of oil. Okay, so something is going on here where there's demand imbalances, right?

For what's happening with oil and oil company profits and the assets that they have on their balance sheet.

Now,

two major things when it comes to this AI infrastructure build out that people are sleeping on. One is energy.

We've said that over and over again. The other is the materials. And we've seen in the United States that the United States has actually gone out and started to invest in materials companies.

One of them being Materials Materials, MP Materials Corporation. Okay, we know that the US Government is now a stakeholder in this company.

There were people talking about this before the US actually announced their stake in this company. So when you go back and you look at back here in 2025, May $20.

The price of this went up to over $100. Okay. Now, point being, this stock is now moving sideways and it can roll over.

It can definitely go lower. But there's going to be some things to look at when it comes to

these materials companies. Right. We saw Project Vault get announced also a couple of weeks ago or about a week ago.

Now, the US Is going to need to get its hands on

critical minerals and materials, and it needs to do it within the United States. Okay. So we're looking at these types of companies that are within the US

as to how to potentially take advantage of this opportunity here regarding how the US Knows that it needs to get its hands on materials.

China,

we've talked about, has a huge grip on the refining capacity

of precious materials. Now, Chamath Palapitiya made a statement on all in at the beginning of the year, what he thinks is going to be the most important trade of 2026.

And let's hear what he had to say about that. I will pick copper. Okay. Copper. We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need, again, in the Trump Doctrine view of the world, that is no longer as multilateral as it was, and we need to have unilateral national security.

And if you look through that lens, the asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is copper. And the reason is that it is, at least as it stands today, the most useful, cheap, amenable conductive material that we have.

That material manifests in everything from our data centers to our chips to our weapon systems. It's just everywhere, everywhere, everywhere.

And right now, Jason, we are on a path by 2040 where we will be short about 70% of the global supply at current course and speed.

And so I will pick copper.

Now,

what has copper done since he made that statement?

It's kind of hanging out. This is at the very beginning, yet he said that. So it did initially have a huge push, and now it's pulling back a little bit.

And we're seeing this major pullback in all of precious metals as well as these materials such as copper.

Now,

the truth is, everyone freaked out last week about gold having this retracement, okay? So we got huge 8%, 10% plus retracement in the price of gold, which is 20% pullback in the price of gold.

Pretty much similar thing for silver, except it was even more dramatic. But as I said during that time,

that is a massive reaction. Okay. That when you see prices come down like that and everyone's talking about, oh, buy silver, buy gold.

All up here everyone's talking about buying gold, buying silver, but down here everyone's afraid. But we're going through what we can call potentially a secular time.

There's three major time frames to look at. When you're making decisions as an investor. You have the secular meaning what's happening over a decade, two decades, three decades.

You have the cyclical, which are things that are happening over the next four or so years for two to four years at a time.

And then you have the tactical moves that you want to make which are things that you're going to do based on maybe what's happening on the daily or what's happening over the next three months, quarters, things of that nature, right?

So when you take these three different time frames and you look at what's happening in the economy right now, when we are looking at what's happening with AI, that is going to be a secular trend.

There is no going backwards from what's happening. It's only going to get more and more exponentially important what's happening with AI.

But the major thing that's needed for AI to get to that potential are going to be physical materials.

Gold, silver and the industrial use cases that they have. As well as

building out things using copper, we also have, obviously we need to build out the data centers themselves.

We also need the energy capacity. Where gold and silver come in is that it is a part of both of those things.

It's not just a part of in being in the chips and being a highly conductive material, but it's also in the energy build out as well.

These materials are necessary from that industrial capacity as well.

So my point really being here is that when I look at what's happening here, there's, there's a value chain to look at.

And we've talked about this in the past as well. But you've got the things that are in the ground, right, that you need to be able to make this happen.

You have taking those materials out of the ground, refining those materials, okay. And then what are you doing with those materials?

You're going then, and then you're using them in manufacturing. Okay? So there's the raw materials and the mining and then you have the manufacturing and then you have from there specifically building out these huge factories, right?

So you've got the. What are we building the factories to do? Well, some of these factories are building chips, okay?

So that's the next thing up on the value chain. And then what do you have? You have models being built on top of these data centers where all we have data centers where all of these chips are going and then being hosted.

And then you have models being built on top of these data centers. And then you have all of the software applications that are being used on top of these data centers and these models that have been used with all of this compute infrastructure that's now in place.

And so, as the everyday investor who's not necessarily deeply in the weeds of what is going to happen next with AI, instead of trying to pick winners regarding which companies are going to be the most profitable throughout all of this,

it might make more sense to be more invested on the infrastructure and the materials themselves that will be used.

Because we know, right, that that is where things are going. So

everyone's going to have their own things that they think are the most important throughout all of this.

It could be, hey, I'm looking at the most asymmetric opportunity and I know that copper, like Chamath is saying, is not necessarily being paid enough attention to and that there's massive shortages in that market in particular, for some people, you just see that silver likes to move a lot more aggressively to the downside and the upside.

And so you're okay with the amount of volatility that you might need to endure in order to get the gains that you might see from an asset like silver.

Some people are like, actually the only real money is gold. Gold is God's money. So I don't even care about the industrial use cases.

That's amazing that it's there as well. But I actually only care about the fact that gold is money and that is potentially where the world is also going to come back to as far as the monetary standards, Right.

We're also seeing monetary shifts around gold and potentially countries moving back to gold standards.

And so that might be the way that you're looking at this trade being the trade of 2026, but all around the board, one of the things that I always want to try to impart as well is instead of trying to pick winners, how can we move down as far as to the base layer of the value chain as we can to just capture the opportunity from what it is from the base layer, so that once again, let the VCs, let a 16Z go out and pick which model is going to be the most important model?

Right. But when it comes to making bets around energy, there's ETFs, right? So one of the most

interesting or most utilized Highest assets under management ETFs is one called XLE in the energy space.

XLE not only does it track a basket of energy stocks, but it also pays dividends. Okay, so when we're looking at, and this is not an endorsement and none of this is investment advice, please do not take investment advice from a random guy inside the house talking to a wall.

Shout out to my commenter that gave me that one. But when it comes to making investment decisions, it's not about picking the winner.

Okay? That's how you get caught up. We're looking at the themes. What are the general directions in which the markets are moving and how can we participate in that.

Now, I'm going to

present one more article that I saw around this and then I'm going to step back and I'm going to let you guys talk to me in the chat and ask questions there and we can continue the conversation in general there.

I'll also look a little bit at some of these charts because there's a lot of stuff also going on there that I realize we should probably talk about as well.

So I saw this article from the Motley Fool. Listen, guys, this is what they see. And I'm just sharing this with you so you guys can see and get some more.

How would I say that

Perspective, right? So they say three infrastructure stocks that are set to win from the $500 billion capex in AI this year.

So they said that Eaton makes electrical equipment for data centers. Texas Instruments makes chips that support data centers.

And Brookfield Renewable produces CLE energy to power new data centers.

So Eaton is an industrial company that makes electrical products. The core of the business is centered around the control of power from light switches in your house to the transformers used by utilities.

And data centers are increasingly important customer category. The company backlog is at a record level as of 2026, up 34% from 2024.

So

we can see here that this company starting to make some waves. Right. And in general has had an upward trajectory.

So these are just things, right, that I'm just going to quickly look at. Right. So that we can see. How do we look at trying to define an opportunity in these markets?

We saw that Exxon is already way, way out. Right. Texas Instruments also just made a new all time high last week.

Look at Brookfield Renewable.

Okay, coming down a little bit.

Okay. Moving very sideways. I don't like the way that that looks at all. So point being,

you can always look at these individual stocks as ways to take advantage of what's happening. In the markets.

But then you can also come back to these thematic ETFs. Okay, so with all of that said, let's talk a little bit more, zoom out a little bit on what's happening in some of these more higher level things happening.

So

one of the reasons why stocks have probably been moving sideways for quite some time here has to do with some of the liquidity coming out of the system.

We've had the treasury general account essentially moving higher since. What's that? Since July 2025.

So the U.S. treasury is in a way taking liquidity out of the markets through the treasury general account.

And because of that, right, you're seeing stocks move pretty sideways. That's. It's part of that for sure.

And so you're seeing the amount of reserves that banks have in their accounts moving down.

That's liquidity coming out of the system. So a little bit of a push back up, but then it re continues back lower.

And we'll talk more about some of that stuff. I mean, I go over this in depth inside some of the members only videos, but we'll continue to break some of this stuff down as we go as well.

But the most important thing that I saw that I do want to fully break down with you right now is what's been happening with the bank of America High yield index adjusted

options, adjusted spreads. And so what's happening right here

is that essentially.

High yield spreads are the difference between

how much investors are demanding

for lending money to corporations versus US Treasuries. And we're seeing that spread go higher. And what that means is that the higher the spreads between the bond for the U.S.

excuse me, the bond for a corporate bond versus a U.S. treasury, the higher that level then investors are demanding more yield premium to hold riskier debt versus Treasuries, which signals increased credit risk or stress in financial markets.

Lower values would signal

tighter spreads and that investors are more comfortable taking on risk. Okay. Which is often seen in easier financial conditions or in strong risk appetite.

So the fact that we've seen this bank of America high

credit yields going up

is showing that there's some

lack of desire to take risk in markets. Okay. And it's something that usually doesn't move all that much.

But right now it's starting to pick up a little bit. Nothing massive, but we can see that it's starting to pick up a little bit.

And I think that that's worth paying attention to.

Now. What else did I want to cover with you guys real quick?

That's pretty much the Main stuff, guys. So the biggest trade opportunity of 2026,

looking at materials. Okay. Materials

and energy.

Okay. It's already starting to take off. It's already starting to take off.

The biggest opportunity to invest in energy was by far back here in 2021 or 2020. Everybody got super scared.

Not even that, but there was just a huge lack of demand. Right. For oil and energy.

So with all that said,

I'm opening up the chat.

So talk to me, guys. What is going on? What are your thoughts on what we just went over today? What are you expecting moving forward?

What did you think of that?

And

let me know

if you guys want me to do this weekly, because if so, then

I'll do it.

All right, so in the chat, ask some questions. Yep. Ben. What's up, Ben? Ben said everyone smash that like button, right?

Meow.

Appreciate you guys for being here.

And

Keith, did you change your YouTube name? I was subscribed to Keith and for some reason didn't get any notifications.

Just had to resubscribe. No, I didn't change anything.

Weekly's good. Cool.

Yeah. If you guys smash that like button, then I'll be able to do this weekly.

Appreciate you guys. Yeah. And by the way, if you didn't know,

I also go live every Tuesday and Thursday

on my live show that I do with Ben Levitt, who's been in the chat. And the show's called Memes and Markets.

And you can find the link to Memes and Markets at the link in the description down below.

So definitely come over here and subscribe to Memes and Markets. We go live every Tuesday and Thursday.

We've had some incredible guests on. Last week we had on ABS from. Good evening, Crypto. Okay. I know you guys know abs.

We've had on the president of the Midnight Foundation. Okay. Over in the Cardano ecosystem, Fami. We had Clive Thompson on

a week ago as well.

Okay. We talked about the currency reset and the future of gold and silver. We've had Cal Chassis on.

We've had some really cool people on, and we're going to continue to have some insane guests. In fact, I guess I'll let you guys know.

Should I drop it, Ben? Should I let them know who's coming on next week?

It's definitely someone that you all watch. And if you guys want to see us in conversation, come over here and subscribe to Memes and Markets.

We go up every Tuesday and Thursday, 12pm Eastern.

Show with ABS was great. Awesome.

Yeah, I guess that's one thing I also haven't Talked about enough is bitcoin.

So one thing about bitcoin right now, guys, I'm just going to go ahead and be honest. Bitcoin

has retraced very, very massively already. And in my eyes,

because it has so quickly. Well, first off, it never went that high, right? We never had insane gains.

And so because we never had insane gains, we also might not need to have insane lows. Okay? So now that retracement that we've gone through here,

a 52% retracement from the highs, I don't know that we need to go too much further than that. Now what I will say is that there's a massive level sitting right here at 49, 000, that if I were a market maker, I would want to get all that liquidity, I'd want to buy all of those willing orders right there.

49,000. I mean, it's just, it's too clean, it's too easy, not gonna lie.

But

anything too far past that level is obviously just gonna be

rather dramatic.

What I will say. So like let's, let's look at this, right, so 2021

to the lows of

2022 was a 78% retracement.

78% retracement would put us all the way down to 26,000 this time.

Let's look at the retracement from 2017 to the 2019 lows.

There's an 84% retracement.

So what we might see is that you have diminishing gains, diminishing returns, but you also might have diminishing retracements.

Okay, so 84% pullback, 8, 78% pullback. Maybe you only get like a

62% pullback and come down here and take out that level at 49,000 and then continue on your merry way.

So what I will say is that there's no reason to think that structurally we're not going to continue to go lower.

Okay, I'm not gonna say that. I'm not gonna say that. There's definitely still room to continue lower,

but going too much further than that 40, 50,000

level, I think. I mean, obviously all of these times right now are the times where you can get the most asymmetric opportunities.

Thoughts on a five month GLD call option says DC Mista. Well, appreciate you for the super chat. Let me say,

you know, you pay massive premiums when you go out into the future on

your options, right? And

trying to look out five months into the future. The problem with that is that,

so you have what are called leaps, right?

Long term equity anticipation securities are options contracts with expiration dates extending beyond one year, often up to three years.

So you're talking about not a leap because you're talking about a five month gold call option. What I've realized in my experience, when it comes to the commodities market in particular especially,

Time frames that are less than a year

are really short.

It's a really, really short timeline. It might not sound like it, it might not feel like it, but that five months will go by so fast and you'll be like, oof,

I'm totally right about this,

but I didn't give myself enough time to be right.

So that's just something to definitely be careful about.

Patty Generation said top five stocks you watch daily and are invested in.

If you want me to be honest,

I don't really invest in a lot of individual stocks. Okay.

I really stick to just putting down into the NASDAQ

S&P 500.

And I chill.

Now what I will say

is that my favorite

individual stock.

You're getting this for $2. By the way, my favorite individual stock

is Google.

I just, I really do truly believe that Google

is going to be the company that continues to dominate when it comes to AI.

And I'm definitely partial because I am a huge part of the YouTube economy and I have always been a huge YouTube user and a part of the YouTube economy.

I mean, geez, from the lows of last year, they're at 145. They've doubled since then.

So the problem that always happens is that you've got these companies that are just extremely extended and you know, trying to make entries in them now is probably not the easiest way of going about it.

But.

You know, this is why I also just really like the nasdaq, because what's the NASDAQ gonna do?

There's gonna be times we have pullbacks. But if you believe in American innovation and also in the fact that we have political reasons that people want the stock market to go up, it gets really easy to just kind of

not have the stress of trying to be right about a particular stock and just

go with the NASDAQ.

Let's see, we've got

Alabama Houseboy 3613.

Who do you see as being better in the future, nuclear or solar?

You know, I really, first off, thank you for the super chat.

I would say personally

that

I don't know enough about solar. I don't, I don't know enough about solar.

And because of that Alone,

I would lean more toward the nuclear

space because from what I do understand, it talked about that a little bit in the article that we went over, there is

a physics problem when it comes to solar and

batteries. Right. And trying to conserve and store and transport energy in the solar realm. And.

You know, the thing that everyone will say though, is that you're going to need a mix of all of these different types of energy for things to work out in the future.

I think that when it comes to nuclear, you know

it's going to take time.

Right. Once again, it's going to take time. So if you're, if you're betting on nuclear, then. We talked about this with abs when it comes to xrp, right.

There's two different things to think about. There's the speculative nature of what's happening and then there's the actual utility of the things.

And so with nuclear, there might be opportunities to catch a speculative wave before it actually becomes seriously relevant and utilized in a big part of the infrastructure that we use for United States energy.

So that is something. That's what I would say to all of that. I think it could be a much

longer time frame for nuclear, but you could have speculative runs in between it all. Once again, this is why I always come back to guess who's going to win no matter what

this energy etf.

Okay. And when you really look at it compared to where

Exxon Mobil is right now, which ExxonMobil does make up a big portion of the XLE, to be clear, it's not too far extended compared to where we were back in 2014.

And it's actually really wild to see this as well. Like

we're moving into

a different

kind of realm here. And crossed central. I'll give you another shout out. He said short abundance, long scarcity.

And I do think that that could be a big trend that happens over the next 10, 20 plus years. Is we're looking at the need for physical materials and energy being more critical and important than just the software itself.

Someone said nuclear's only downside is the fact that there has been no negative outlook on just the idea of it for decades.

Oh, no. That there has been negative outlook on just the idea of it for decades, but the promise of it is unparalleled.

Yeah, like, and there could be asymmetry in that once again, especially when we're looking at

the speculative side of it. Right. There's this asymmetry around the fact that everyone has hated nuclear for so long or been afraid of nuclear for so long.

But it might be the necessary evil or it's not necessarily evil at all, but it might be necessary for this future of energy.

And so if there's this deprecated perception yet a high demand and need for it, then that could be a massive asymmetric opportunity as well.

So

Napsters said nuclear power will be superior until we have efficient way to store energy, right? Yep.

Yep. White in Vermont said. Keith, thanks for your time and videos. Thank you for coming by. I appreciate it.

Is it possible fully banning cash any top that your opinion

to fully abandon cash in any of top five economies? I'm not sure I fully understand that question, but I do think that, I mean cash has already been abandoned

in most economies. People are trying to get

away from Patty generation. Thank you for the super chat again. I seriously do appreciate that. What's your number one source on YouTube?

Highly recommended. Must watch. Well, number one, I'm gonna be honest with you.

Memes and markets. All right, but

outside of memes and markets from being super serious,

you know, look, I'll give you guys my breakdown. I. I love All In. I haven't even gotten to watch all in this week.

It came out a few hours last night. I love All In. Now they've gotten super political and it sucks, okay, because you don't need that.

But they literally are political because David Sachs is in the White House now. So All In. Fantastic.

If you guys want a real gym, I mean if you guys are real gym, this is stuff that usually only the members are getting.

I'll give you a real gym. This guy named Chim Carson,

He has a channel called Kai Media, but he mostly goes on other people's podcasts. So if you really want to hear from him, you should do that and also follow him on Twitter.

But he is a great thinker and as well as a great practitioner in the markets. He manages a fund and he.

His specialty is in the options market and people who are especially

generating income from options markets. You kind of have to have an incredibly strong grip on market mechanics if you're doing it legitimately.

So

somebody saying, what's up, Kevin? What's that about?

They're saying, meet Kevin. Was me Kevin in the building? I don't think so.

Okay, so let's see. Thoughts on quantum computing in relation to AI and crypto. Okay, thank you for the super chat, DW99.

Okay, so

reply to this and tell me on. Reply to your comment and see if because are you talking about quantum computing as an investment or just quantum computing?

The concept we talked a little bit about it as far as the concept and its impact that it can have on AI.

What I will say is, I mean, excuse me. On crypto. On crypto, quantum computing will

force crypto to continue to iterate on top of itself. There's plenty of

quantum resistant technologies that already exist. Resistant, mind you.

But what would have to happen is that bitcoin would have to upgrade itself to be quantum resistant. And apparently there are still some wallets that might not really be fully resistant.

Even if they did do that. I don't know exactly how that works. But you'd have to fork the network.

And I mean, bitcoin has gone through a fork in the past, if not multiple at least one fork. And so it's something that happens

because of that. You know, the current bitcoin is not the real bitcoin, but it's still

what it is, right? Let's be honest. It's. It's still what everyone has agreed on

as using.

So let's see.

Oh, people are just saying they watch me. Kevin.

Yeah, he's. He's cool.

Top places to get information from. I mean guys, I just get information from the sources. Right? Like, let me.

So I. I'll go to forksfactory.com. i'll go to Fred.

Okay. Fred. They have all their economic data in here.

Okay.

The bea.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis. No, not bearable. Guy.

That's hilarious.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BLS

and I usually use Forex factory as the place where all of that data is just being aggregated. Right. So

that's how we do that.

Okay, somebody. Welcome. Welcome. Kreger 2399

as a macro analyst on the channel. As a channel member. Very much appreciated. Welcome in. Is $200 silver possible with more use in robots?

I'm just gonna be honest with you, Red Star. Thank you for the super chat.

I am not going to be surprised.

Now

this is. This is crazy, right? What we've already seen here has been absolutely nuts for silver. You're gonna have to cool off.

But if we go out

into the Future, man, is $77 an ounce silver gonna be

expensive?

I don't think so, man.

What do I mean? Bitcoin isn't the real bitcoin. Yeah, it's a good question. So when you fork the network.

So there's, there's bitcoin gold, bitcoin cash, there's bitcoin satoshi's vision. There's all these different bitcoins because there have been forks in the network.

Now I Believe

so because of that. Right. You had the OG bitcoin but then you had a fork in the chain. Okay. Somebody was like, ah, we don't believe in this version of it anymore.

We're going to create our own version of it. And people went on to use some. Some people are using that version.

Right. Bitcoin cash or bitcoin Satoshi's vision or whatever. And so there's been a time from what I understand where there was a fork in the network that actually ended up being the adopted version.

Right. So the OG bitcoin is actually still out there doing its own thing. I don't know how I think this is bitcoin satoshi's vision.

I don't even know actually. And. But the forks of bitcoin instead

are what's being used. So hopefully that kind of made sense. And I'm not like a bitcoin historian. I'm sure there's some inaccuracies in something that I just said, but that's the idea of a fork and that's kind of what

I'm talking about.

Do I dabble in shorting and longing positions?

Yes, but very short term. Right. I only am very scalpy in the futures markets. I'm thinking about doing a whole channel to talk about just my trading stuff.

I've actually already created it, but

going to tell the members only about that first.

Let's see.

Thoughts on Microsoft and Amazon? Yeah, I mean look.

Oh that's crazy.

Yeah. These big sell offs, I think they, they might be warranted to some degree.

But guys, it's always the same thing over and over again. It's like if you want access, if you want exposure to these types of companies, there's no better time to try to find exposure to these companies because they're up only stock.

So when you get these dips, when you get these 30 dips

on straight, fear.

Not. Financial advice

see.

Quantum as technology in terms of AI possibly making current infrastructure redundant or even irrelevant as there would be less need for non quantum based silicon chips that currently dominate.

Oof.

Yeah,

I don't know

enough about that. I really don't.

I really, I genuinely just don't. I'm just gonna be honest with you. Rick Hall, $2 no question. Very highly appreciated.

Thank you guys for the super chats. I really really really do appreciate it.

226 said. Are you aware of the private credit crisis coming around in Q3? I have heard about this. I have heard about the private credit crisis and apparently how these companies are basically Doing circular investing in themselves and re.

Re upping into themselves raising new money to pay off old investors. Right. Something that I did hear about.

Yeah. So let me see if I can find one of the articles that I was seeing about this.

Yeah, I think it's interesting.

It is something worth paying attention to. I can't believe nothing is pulling up about that. That's kind of crazy.

I know

that there's been some pretty significant pieces put out about this.

Yeah. So I don't know a whole lot about that credit crisis in the private credit markets, but I will break down what that is for people who are

maybe a little bit unfamiliar.

And

so private credit is an arm of private equity in a sense. Right. So

private markets have a lot of funds. Okay. So there's private equity funds, there's private credit funds, there's venture capital funds, there's hedge funds.

And so all of that in a sense really is private equity. But you don't call it that. You call private equity, only private equity.

When they're investing into companies, technically, but like

it's kind of the same thing. They're all just raising money from investors in their funds. These are all institutional investors or accredited investors at the minimum, larger minimum check sizes, usually like 10,000 is the absolute minimum that you're ever going to be able to put into a private fund.

Depends. Obviously there's stuff that's created just for other people to be able to get in, but

some of these other, like private credit funds are taking even way, way, way bigger check sizes. Okay.

Now this is somebody if you guys want to know,

if you guys want to know who to listen to this guy, one of the top dogs in the private credit space,

Howard Marks. Okay? Howard Marks. He's the co chairman of Oak Tree Capital Management, one of the largest private credit investors ever.

He has a book, his multiple books, masking the market cycle, the most important thing.

And he writes memos, okay, every quarter at the minimum, I believe. And his memos are absolutely fantastic.

And he's written these memos throughout history. And if you just go and you just read through some of his most famous memos or just read through his memos, you will learn so much about investing

that it will blow your mind. And in fact, I think he does these every month. Okay. 35 years of memos with Howard Marks every month.

If you go through and you read all of his memos, you will become the most sophisticated

investor ever.

So anyways, just wanted to kind of break down a little bit of private market. So. Okay, I didn't private credit.

So instead of

these companies, these funds raising money from people to go out and buy equity in companies, they go out and they lend money to companies, okay?

So they stay on the debt side of the capital stack versus the equity side of the capital stack. So when an investment goes wrong, they don't lose everything.

Technically, there's going to be assets that they've underwritten that they can get back as collateral when they do that.

And in fact, the way that these private credit companies, and particularly Howard Marks have come up so major is by investing into distressed assets.

And so companies that are not doing very well, that are on the brink of a bankruptcy coming in, getting them at super cheap prices and then either flipping the company around or divesting of all of that company's assets and getting a profit off of that.

Cool. Oh my goodness, you guys, thank you for the super chats.

It really does make it way easier for me to answer questions that way because there's a lot of time we could spend doing anything.

And so I appreciate even the efficiency of you guys doing the super chats. I really appreciate it. Can I show my website that I've been building?

Well, I mean, you can, I guess put it in the comments of your own super chat and people will see it. That's what I would do if I were you,

Mr. Silver Chain Gang.

This

discreet playboss. I see your name all the time. I have no idea how to pronounce that. Do you think we'll ever get meaningful reforms at the BLS for reporting?

I mean, to be fair,

I think,

I think right now, right during this current administration would be the one time when that is very likely to happen.

Okay, he's already fired, right? The, the BLS commissioner. So this is the time if we were ever to get those types of reforms, it would happen in this next three to four year period.

Rick hall said you have 5k to invest right now. Where do you invest?

It's actually kind of interesting because you guys think that I'm just sitting here talking,

but I'm really not.

None of this is investment advice. Please do not take investment advice from anybody who's sitting inside their house talking to a wall.

I love what's happening with energy, so that's what I'll say.

Let's see.

Yeah. Thank you guys for the super chats. I really, really, really, really, really, really do appreciate it.

And I'm excited to

run this back next weekend as well.

You and dababy cousins or brothers. I've actually, I've gotten That one quite a bit. Especially back in the day when I didn't have hair.

Chris jensen said, y' all think bls needs.

Bls rules need reform.

Let me say real quick,

The cpi, right, is the major thing that people want to see changed,

is the answer to that. Because.

A lot of it is made up. A lot of the weighting of it is housing. But the way that they measure housing is by surveying people on how they would, like, rent out their own home

kind of a thing. And it's just like, that's not a very

fair way of trying to measure it. And. And you've got all these other

private companies that are doing

measurements that might be more accurate. Someone said Chevron. Chevron,

yeah. So once again, when you look at xle, it holds all of that stuff, guys.

That's what I like about xle. And it pays dividends, which most of these oil companies also pay dividends.

So you also have Chevron, right? Not as far off. As far as. Not as far off.

Extended.

There's something about Exxon in particular, though, guys. The way that it has moved since Those lows of 2020 is hard to compete with.

They typically tend to lead the way.

Like, look at bp, on the other hand, like, you. You.

Okay,

Mr. Talking to a wall.

Was I a?

Mateo said, Were you a. I don't know if I can say that. When you were younger,

Mateo. I don't think that I would have considered myself that.

I appreciate the question.

Down burst with $2.49 in euros. If you invested in the S and P, what other country index?

Oof. I'm not sure that I understand the question fully.

If you invest in the S and P, what other country index?

If you want to follow up,

that could be super helpful.

So.

Wow, look at that.

In the. In the United King in Europe, you guys have a couple of key indices. You have the footsie from the United Kingdom and then you have the DAX

out of Germany.

And

I don't know that I would invest outside the U.S. but that's just because it's something that I don't pay enough attention to, to where I would ever feel comfortable trying to invest outside of the United States.

Yeah, I mean, I would do whatever I could to try to get my hands on exposure to US equities is something that I just.

Personally, maybe I'm jaded because I grew up here, but that's just kind of something that

I would keep.

I would try my best to get access to US equities exposure.

Okay, let's see

if you don't like North Northrop and Grummel or Lockheed? Which Warstock is better? Thanks for being a decent human being.

Well, Alabama Houseboy 3 613, I appreciate your

super chat. We haven't talked about this at all today,

but if you want to invest in the war stocks, there's one that's trading at a little bit of a discount at the moment,

co founded by a guy named Peter Thiel

and Joe Lonsdale,

and

It's down about 37% from its highs. And let me tell you, people

back here, back up here, when it was $127, people were going crazy for the stock back in February 2025.

So

are you going crazy for it now? That's down 37%.

And you know, you might not consider this a war stock, but I 100% do.

It'd be cool if I could be a contrarian and saying that, but I'm sure everyone agrees that Palantir is a war stock.

Lockheed Martin, look at that one.

Wow. Yep. No games being played there. You have Boeing.

Oof. Out of there as well. Yeah, I see.

So

there are defense etfs as well.

Jeez.

Wow. Straight up.

Straight up. So anyways, hopefully that answered your question.

Silver Changang said every blockchain will become its own S&P 500H. Interesting statement.

I would say that blockchains, Right. What I would want to have is the S&P 500 of blockchain.

Because

the reality is that all blockchains aren't going to win. All blockchains aren't going to be utilized.

Right? And so with that being the case, I want to own

really not even just blockchain tokens, but distributed ledger technologies

that allow for me to capture

more than just

the upside of one particular blockchain.

Right? So as an example,

what are the different types of things that you need for a blockchain to be successful or for, excuse me, for all of distributed ledger technology to be successful, there are different components.

You might need a blockchain to settle your transactions. You might need multiple different blockchains to coordinate a transaction.

You might need data,

okay, from the outside world to be used inside the blockchain world on any different blockchain that you might be using.

And so if I can find the things that are going to be needed to make distributed ledger technology successful and not just a particular blockchain, or if I can play in the realm of where things are going to interoperate with one another,

then that's kind of how I would want to position myself in the space of distributed ledger technology or crypto.

Now, first time, catch me live. Well, welcome in. I definitely really enjoy these. So we will definitely do another one this,

this upcoming weekend.

See,

You guys are funny.

Okay, what is bny melons tokenization in Q2 mean for us? So

BNY, I don't know. I keep on seeing you say that. I don't know that we're talking about the same thing.

Yeah, BNY tokenization, which. BNY tokenization. I know they had their tokenized deposits. I think maybe you might be referring to the DTCC

tokenizing transactions in H2, which would be Q3, technically.

And that's going to mean what it means, brother. We talked about it quite a bit

and I do a full members video about that as well.

Patch of seahawks.

I have not been following at all. So I have no take on that. I have no

horse in that race.

Yeah, the dtcc. I talked about it in the park with a stick. Yeah,

yeah. I mean, well, in that video, towards the end, I very well outlined the things that I think are going to stand to benefit the most from that.

And I think that it could mean that

we're seeing the beginning, right, of the tokenization of everything in a very serious manner. The DTCC tokenizing securities guys is not like.

Like this, this stuff is actually happening.

And I'm glad that that video got attention because,

like,

you know, a lot of us have been talking about this stuff for years, right? And now that the DTCC is legitimately tokenizing securities transactions, the dtcc,

not the nyse, not the New York Stock Exchange, not the comex, not the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, about the actual depository trust and clear incorporation tokenizing transactions is happening this year.

That's. That's wild.

So

we'll see, we'll see what happens from there, right? And we'll see if that is a successful thing and they continue to tokenize more and more.

Mateo, I appreciate you, man. He said, I'm a young trader. Thanks for all your work, bro. I appreciate it.

I appreciate it. Yeah, I'm super excited to potentially

move into some of that kind of stuff as well. Some of you guys already know that I'm a,

I guess a disciple of the inner circle trader. I don't know if that's the right word I want to use, but I follow his work

and I'm going to put out a channel where I talk more about some of that stuff and the things that I've learned and the lessons that I'm learning through all of that.

Because

that's actually kind of where I wanted to start all of this from. I wanted to. The inner operator, that name was to me all about trying to talk about what it takes to be a successful trader and the

control, and not just control, but understanding of yourself to be able to be successful in markets.

And,

and it just kind of just turned into all of this stuff where we talk much more about the macro than anything else.

But I'm like, well, I do still care about

the trading stuff and it's a lot of fun and it's a lot of learning of yourself and all of that. So I'm gonna go in on some of that stuff as well because it's just such a liberating thing to be able to,

You know,

profit from markets, to be honest.

So

Silver Chang gang said

they're taking blockchain freedom by tokenizing

in a way that is correct. I mean, there's a lot of guys. Oh, man.

Yeah. Like my personal take on a lot of this stuff is that like blockchain and distributed ledger technology is not going to be a super.

It's not going to be a super liberating thing. Okay, it might be liberating in terms of the money that you're able to make from all of this, but we're moving into a world where,

You know, look, it's, it's, it's not going to be what we have now. Right. Things are going to be a lot more,

a lot more closely tracked, a lot more closely monitored and all the things that come with that will be things that we'll have to consider and continue to navigate.

So I'm going to come back to you, Petty Generation, and thank you for the super chat. Downburst1 said money down 20% against the euro.

Oh, the dollar vers down 20% versus the euro. Future thoughts? Yes, let's talk about that really quickly.

And Petty Petty generation, I will come back to you and I appreciate your super chat.

So, yes, so the Dixie is down, right. A little bit and then we. We're talking about the euro. Okay. I'm gonna be honest with you,

Downburst. I personally

and I outline the stuff in my weekly previews inside of the members only stuff. So if you do want to keep up with things like this, as I'm going about it, I'm not going to be surprised by the dollar continuing to lose value this year.

Okay, so hopefully that answered your question. Now, Petty generation,

let me answer your question and I'm going to also

set this up while I'm here. So Petty Generation has asked, how can I have a private chat with you? I wanted to ask about your findings from the top 100 tokenizations you were looking at.

You mentioned something about it in the members only video. I also joined the Patreon.

Okay,

so

I'm not really

offering that

inside of.

I have a community

where we have been live for almost six months now.

And I'm not accepting people into that at the moment.

But one of the things that I'm willing to do

is I will set up a consultation.

And I had this available in the past, but I just took it off because I just didn't like

having people able to access that like that.

But what I'll do

is I will

re implement this

and if you guys want to book a consultation,

then I will do consultations with you guys.

So shoot me a DM on Instagram and let me know that you are you and then I'll get you the link to that

and I'll. I'll take a few consultations. I'm not really

looking to

do that at scale, but if you're serious about chatting, then I don't mind

doing that.

Welcome, John

Bagley, to the conscious contributors of the members.

Yep,

yep,

yep.

Awesome, guys. Well, it seems that

we've got 982 people still in here, so super, super grateful for that. Hit that like button if you haven't already.

I have a feeling that there's a lot of people who have not hit that like button. In fact, I know that you haven't hit that like button and honestly I'm a little bit offended.

Hit that like button.

And also,

if you haven't already,

you gotta subscribe to my live show that I do with Ben Levitt. It's called Memes and Marcus. We go live every Tuesday and Thursday at 12pm Eastern.

And if you are enjoying this, and there's 900 people in here that I imagine are enjoying this, you gotta go subscribe to Memes of Marcus.

You're going to love it. We have some crazy guests coming on Ben, if you're around. I don't know if I can drop the guests that we have or not.

I'll pull it up on the screen so you guys can see who's coming on next week. Guys,

we've got the man himself

coming on on Tuesday at 12pm Eastern on memes and Market. So you got to subscribe. And what I highly recommend is that you also turn on the notifications bell because you're only going to be notified when we go live.

Okay, so you're not going to get spammed with notifications. Only when we go live do you get any notifications.

So turn on the notification bell when you come over here and subscribe.

Somebody said to Patty Generation bro, go to Chad GPT and as the top stable coins. Yeah, I think you're missing the plot, but that's okay.

Welcome Chris Jensen to the Conscious contributors.

Very, very, very much so appreciated for you guys that are sending super chats that are joining the channel memberships.

And when you guys come in and you ask questions, I will do my best to actually

answer these questions that you have either in the form of members only videos for the macro analyst tier members or I'll try to comment back to you as well.

The Zaya said, bro, I don't trust that guy.

Well, it'll be cool because we're gonna have a conversation with him and if you come over and you come and join us live, we'll be able to talk about all of the things that you guys think.

Exactly. So Joe B. Said, better hit him with the hard real question and exactly. We will, we'll will have a real conversation.

That's the value of what we're doing at Memes and Markets. We're not like, we're not coming to this industry trying to suck up to anybody.

Right. Like we're really legitimately here to ask the questions that we want to know the answers to and that everybody wants to know the answers to.

And that's kind of the goal of this whole format.

So

Memes and Markets link didn't work. Interesting.

Well, type it in Memes and Markets and find us because I promise you

it's worth typing it in.

Yep, yep, yep.

Well, that's awesome. Juro Setjuro. Juro. This is a good live stream. I learned so much from you every time I tune in.

Hope you're feeling better. Thank you. Yeah, guys, I've been

not doing that great.

It's ridiculous. It's me trying to

do a lot and

I gotta do my best to get myself together and do this properly so that I'm not

sacrificing my health. Real Sosa Roblox said. Keith, what's your academic professional background? Sorry, if you already made a video on this.

I probably will make a full video on this just for people that are actually interested because I don't know, it does come up sometimes.

No

degree in economics or finance or anything like that.

I do have a bachelor's degree in communications, particularly in advertising.

I should make a full video on This I spent time.

As a licensed investment broker.

Slight very small stint as a financial advisor. Realized that that industry was not exactly what I wanted to do.

Real estate

as well. Very short stint

and professional stuff. In crypto. I was working in communications in crypto and then as an advisor at the Security Token Group.

We're helping companies tokenize securities

and so anyways there's.

I'll do a full video on it.

J Bud I learned so much from this channel. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you guys for being here.

Very much appreciated everybody. What are your thoughts on mining stocks? NYC Z A C I don't know how to play you.

I feel like there actually is something being said in that name but I don't know what it is. NYC Playa

or Playa. It could be Playa.

Mining stock Rule. Rick Rule. He sold his silver and he bought mining stocks. I thought that was a very cool one.

You got to think about it, right? Silver's extended mining stocks generate profits. Revenues. Silver and gold do not necessarily.

So there's always an option of if you want exposure to the metals markets or the energy markets, do you want access to just the asset itself, Right.

Are you just buying crude oil contracts or are you buying Exxon who's producing profits and has assets on hand that they can use to continue to refine and create profits as well.

So I think mining stocks are an interesting thing. I think if you're going to do mining stocks probably look for, I mean I don't think any of them would not pay dividends, right?

I'm sure they all pay dividends.

So that's the cool thing about, about a precious metals mining stock is that the thing about dividend paying stocks is that a lot of your profits are back into

paying dividends. Right. Instead of into the balance sheets of the company and the cash of the company improving.

But when it comes to a precious metals miner, there's a little bit of a different thing to think about.

Because you've got a precious metal that's also on the balance sheet as well. So the precious metal continues to go up and the profits that you're able to generate from continuing to mining this precious metal is going up as well.

Then the dividend is really not necessarily offsetting your ability to keep continue to get gains in the value of the balance sheet of the.

Of the price of the stock as well. So that's another thing. I guess. I don't know. I'm not an expert when it comes to that kind of a thing.

But just logically that's Kind of what's on my mind.

Yeah, thank you for that, NYC player. Okay, cool. Petty Generation. I appreciate you for sending the dm.

I will go ahead and check it out.

Bingo. Playa it is, yo. Well that didn't help because it's either player or playa. It's spelled the same way,

But I'm gonna imagine you're saying player.

I try not to do specific projects, guys.

Fit for fools. I actually am curious as to what you really mean by that.

I don't really know what you're saying there. What did I do? What did I do, bro?

School is about networking, not degrees. I have an econ degree and he's far more knowledgeable than I am.

Tone World well, I didn't see the second part of your statement, but the first part about school is about networking and not degrees.

Totally agreed about that. That's going to be the most important thing that you get from going to universities.

Taxi Wave yo fam. I'm currently studying the cfa. Did I take it? No, I have not taken it, but

kudos to you for doing that. That's going to be awesome.

Okay, I like this one. JJ Braham's Keith Always wanted to ask watching your videos, why would the government use already pre established coins, XRP et cetera and not their own creation with banks?

So there's two different questions I think being asked there. Because the government itself doesn't necessarily need to use any of this stuff, right?

It should be done with the private sector.

The private sector should be continuing to release these innovations. But the real question I think you're asking is, well at least me, the question that I see asked often is why would a bank not just use their own solutions versus using Ripple XRP solution?

Well, part of this is that you would have to think about the fact that

you have a game theory thing going on. Because if JP Morgan has their own thing

then why would

Goldman Sachs use it,

right? And so you just continue to create more silos.

So now that doesn't necessarily solve the equation or answer why you have to use some other solution, but when you at least have now a third party, that can be the solution that they're all using it, that they can all plug into with their own solutions.

Now you can have the re entrance of interoperability across all of these different systems which otherwise would not communicate with one another.

That's one part of it,

but I think I'll kind of leave it there.

Brittany said, can't wait to see the ICT concepts you use. I'm excited about that channel because I really, really love that stuff.

I really do. It's awesome. It's so much fun.

It's such a personal internal journey.

And

I enjoy it more than this stuff because this stuff is.

This stuff can get kind of dark. Oh.

And. And that stuff is not like that.

I gotta replace my camera battery. Give me just a.

All right. Well, in general, guys, I appreciate you all spending the time here.

And, yeah, definitely, at the very minimum, go and check out memes and markets.

You guys can catch me live there much more often. And

until next time,

peace and love to you guys. I will see you very soon. Peace.