25-Day WARNING: This has NOT Happened since The Great Depression.

here's the reality we have 25 days to

avert economic catastrophe catastrophe

is what will happen Tucker Carlson warns

we have just 25 days left Jim Cramer's

tweets of death a strike again and yikes

the mainstream media is once again

peddling fear uncertainty and doubt that

the global Elite seems to be sending you

messages to continue to be fearful to

continue to move to cash because how

dare you start acquiring assets and

trying to build your wealth you need

more fear and now we've found an element

of fear that hasn't happened since the

Great Depression and guess what if the

media has it their way you'll run to

your friends and family and warn them

about this chart and what just happened

which hasn't happened in the last 90

years of course my goal is to give you

perspective on everything that is useful

to your money now and that includes what

the heck happened to Tucker Carlson's

25-day warning well talk about Jim

Cramer's tweet of death in First

Republic Bank oh my Lord then we're

going to talk about this depression

issue we'll also talk about what

generation of investors were the

greatest paper handers in a study

conducted will also look at a critical

data set that you should be prepared for

Thursday and Friday two critical data

sets and we'll uncover not only the

answers to this but as a thank you for

liking the video and hopefully

subscribing if I've earned it I will

show you a picture of Kathy Wood

replying to me first Jim on March 10th

Jim tweeted First Republic is new Focus

very good bank

well you know what that means not Jim

Cramer loaded up the shorts as soon as

Jim Cramer tweeted that first Republic

is a very good bank and sure enough the

stock fell from approximately ninety

dollars per share all the way down to

under 13 per share when Jim Cramer

tweeted

the First Republic torture will continue

at its regularly scheduled 9 30 a.m and

then of course as if On Queue First

Republic Bank started Rising again only

to fall another 50 percent yesterday now

down to even lower than where Jim Cramer

warned about the dangers coming can

First Republic Bank is now sitting at

just about seven dollars per share and a

lot of folks are worried that this

company which just lost about 40 percent

of its deposits and has 10 times more

debts than it has deposits

is next to go bankrupt that is leading

First Republic Bank to consider a 100

billion dollar asset sale so that way

they could sell off notes and securities

problem is now they have to be marked to

market right nobody's going to pay

market value for old loans that are

worth less now because rates have gone

up and they're probably gonna have to

take some big L's but it'll actually

raise cash which would be useful for

potentially saving the bank but right

now things aren't looking good and if

you just bet on the opposite of what Jim

Cramer does well

you'll be part of the inverse Kramer

Club we're having a field day

now we've got to talk about Tucker

Carlson in the 25-day warning which

there are plenty of memes circulating

that on Friday Jim Cramer said Tucker

Carlson is great and has a great show

and sure enough on Monday Tucker Carlson

was fired but that was just a joke

that didn't actually happen however what

is this 25-day warning and then what is

the depression issue and then who's the

biggest generation of abrahamas what did

Kathy would say

let's continue after the 25 Day Warning

here's the reality we have 25 days to

avert economic catastrophe catastrophe

is what will happen if we run out of

diesel fuel ah yes remember the 25 Day

warning this is from the diesel crisis

and I'm bringing this up because well

first of all what did I say about the

diesel crisis yes prices might go up a

little bit but is this really a big deal

and are we going to run out of diesel

well we actually run out probably not

well that's what happened as usual

things just weren't as bad as feared and

I have to tell you this is the story of

life when I find that I'm going on a

vacation for example I always find that

life always follows you your vacation

will never be as great as you expect

well maybe sometimes it exceeds

expectations but oftentimes things don't

go perfectly as planned right just like

life two steps forward one step back and

just like the fears that we have usually

don't end up being as bad as we expect

no don't get me wrong I've got a lot of

fears as well I had had fears when I was

a child and I lost my childhood home or

when my parents were going through

divorce and I had to live in a motel for

months I was fearful of them or I've

been fearful of my Adult Career but I'll

tell you the diesel crisis and maybe

some of the other things that we're

going to address

sometimes just don't turn out as bad as

fear think about the diesel crisis

everybody was worried the world was

going to run out of diesel because we

weren't going to have enough diesel to

warm the countries in Europe and we're

gonna run out of diesel which is so

important for Trucking in America and

the world was going to come to a higher

stop and we were going to be in a Great

Depression

well as Elon Musk says fate loves irony

and what ended up happening uh literally

the opposite we are literally in a

situation now where diesel is down 50

percent from last year's record even

though gasoline is trending up a little

bit it's Fallen a lot as well but diesel

is plummeting one of the reasons is

according to JB Hunt a transporter we

are in a quote Freight recession the

winter was a lot warmer even and which

is weird because California had record

snowfall because they had a lot of rain

but that didn't necessarily make the

winter warmer or colder in Europe we had

a warm winter overall we had a

relatively warm winter now you got

Californians freaking out because we're

about to get a heat wave and that's

going to melt so much snow so rapidly

California is going to have again too

much water it's always too much or too

little in California but focusing on

this diesel issue look OPEC plus just

massively cut crude oil production and

usually that sends oil up gas up and

Diesel usually and it did when they

first announced their Cuts yet what's

happening now well unsurprisingly oil

and Brent are uh that is WTI the Western

blend and Brent the international blend

are basically back to where the levels

were before the OPEC production cut and

Diesel is plummeting why is that

happening well a lot of folks are

worried about the FED cooling the

economy so much so that manufacturing

activity is Contracting and slowing down

isms and s p surveys are just not

looking that great warehouses are

generally overstocked from the pandemic

and we've had massive plummets in

Imports just look at UPS they had their

first Revenue dip since 2009 this week

and their stock fell about 10 percent

companies have also been less accurate

in predicting their Freight needs which

is a sign that companies that were

saying hey yeah we should have some good

Freight orders coming you're going

just kidding we don't need those raid

orders anymore and what is that doing

well it's screwing the truckers my heart

goes out to the truckers that's actually

a hard ass job and you're alone a lot my

heart goes out to you and now what do we

hear well you've got Bob Costello of the

American Trucking Association he's a

chief Economist there he says the

trucking companies are seeing their

fleets in the size of around two to

three hundred trucks failing at a rate

of one per week one trucking company

going Banker per week

this is also bad for trucking companies

and individuals not just like a JB Hunt

but also people making bets on this

Trucking transformation with companies

like Nikola or Hylian so beware

okay but what about this Great

Depression thing and I do want to also

just quickly mention hey this is this

was not to bag on Tucker and I'm not a

Tucker apologist by any means okay I'll

call out Tucker uh but you know I I I

don't think people should be fired so

we'll see what happens with that but I

want to be clear regarding Tucker it's

not just Tucker who was talking about

this diesel crisis everybody talked

about the diesel crisis it was trending

for a very long time it's just useful

for you to see how things weren't as bad

as feared and that's going to be quite

useful when we Analyze This Great

Depression fear-mongering that's

circulating on the internet right now

it's going viral on Twitter it's going

viral on YouTube we just have to be

honest about it as a quick side note

solely because it's funny did you know

that Tucker Carlson and Don Lemon hired

the same attorney to defend them that's

true Brian Friedman a famous Hollywood

lawyer who's negotiated multi-million

dollar settlements for people like well

actually he's still working on

negotiating Chris Cuomo's he's looking

for 125 million dollar wrongful

termination payout but also secured

payouts for Megan Kelly Julia Roberts

Mariah Carey Seth Rogen Quentin

Tarantino he's worked for all these

folks even Chris Harrison from The

Bachelor and Michael Jackson's estate

okay sorry tangent but what about the

Great Depression

yes okay so what's happening well I'm

gonna try to make this as simple as

possible because it can get complicated

but I trust that you are with me in

wanting to get to the bottom of this so

what's happening is everybody's freaking

out about the money supply expansion

having turned negative and people call

this a massive economic warning they say

the money supply hasn't contracted in 90

years in fact other periods that the

money supply has contracted Nick I'm

borrowing your chart dude I appreciate

you I respect your opinion I think

you're wrong about this one but that's

okay we could still have coffee or beer

together I don't know maybe not be we'll

figure it out we can still hang out okay

I still respect you man but Nick here on

Twitter says the money supply is

contracted

in the Great Depression 1929 the

depression of 1921 the Panic of 1893 and

the 1870s banking crisis and in other

words

Nick says what amazes me is that nobody

is paying attention to this and now we

are about to see a massive amount of

economic pain because the only time this

happens is during periods of massive

economic campaign

well what the hell is actually happening

here well to some extent Nick could be

correct maybe this is going to cause a

massive economic depression however

there are some reasonable explanations

for why this is happening the first is

something known as a return to Trend

okay here is the money supply expansion

remember the global lead central banks

they're always printing money to make

your cash worth less I'm not defending

the government I'm not an apologist for

the government they are making your cash

worth less so they have to pay you less

money and so your wages are worth less

this is why real income is basically

negative for every income bracket

it's part of the game it's how debt gets

paid off easier and how capitalists make

more money but guess what

when you understand the game you invest

in things like stocks and real estate

and businesses and then you learn to

play the game and then you also get

wealthy that's my goal that's my goal of

what to teach you on this channel it's

very important but if we have a return

to Trend that means we're either above

or below Trend right well are we above

or below it let's look at the chart oh

we are well above a 2020 or sorry I

should say a 2000 to 2019-ish level of

Trent and so we're turning to Trend

means of course the number is going to

go negative so number one return to

Trend that's a normalization number two

base effects the chart that Nick showed

you and other folks are showing you on

the internet is a percent change chart

of course when the Federal Reserve is

printing 80 billion dollars per month

when inflation is six to seven percent

like they did in March of

2022 which is insane that they were

printing money as little as 13 months

ago well what happens when you stop and

all of a sudden you print just one less

dollar or you take one dollar out of

circulation

surprise surprise of course you're gonna

go negative

duh that's how the math works we have

not expanded the money supply this

rapidly uh hint ever

think about that we have never expanded

the money supply as rapidly as we did

during covet in fact take a look at this

chart here and what I want you to see is

that the blue line that goes up and down

it's pretty volatile the blue line that

goes up generally goes up and down

around a trend and so when you see

between 1965 and 1985 it goes up around

a trend you get a down there around the

1990s and then you get the slight

increase from 2000 to 2020 end of 2019.

that is very normal and because again

the global lead is printing money to

make your money worth less we know that

that is normal again not justifying it

that's just what happens

what is it actually mean like when does

the expanding money supply create

inflation well if you look at 2000 to

2019 the money supply as long as it

expands at a relatively Trend level Hint

it does not create inflation you driving

at 50 miles per hour and running the

money printer at the same rate of speed

does not create inflation

even though people say when you print

money you create inflation that is not

what happened between 2000 and 2019 yes

we had like 1.5 inflation that's nominal

that's not right away inflation right

what does create inflation well using

the car analogy when you step on the gas

and all of a sudden you're going 130

miles an hour because you're driving

from Tesla Model S plat on the freeway

and you're trying to get away from a

stalker well now you're going to create

some problems and the economy that

problem is inflation if you slam on the

brakes and the rate of change is rapid

you could also expect rapid disinflation

okay so now go back to this chart what I

noticed is I identified three periods of

time with an orange arrow where the

money supply expanded rapidly out of a

recession now out of a recession is

important because if it's expanding in a

recession you don't necessarily have

inflation because the economy is

Contracting but out of a recession you

had an expansion in 1972 1976 and 2021

and what happened with an average lag of

16 months thereafter

well you guessed it you had rapid

inflation which you could see here based

on the red chart 23 months later after

the 72 74 era in fact I put a little

chart over here uh 23 months after the

money printing downtrend begins in 1973

you have in an inflation Peak uh 23

months later after the money printing

downtrend begins in 1977 it takes 38

months for you to actually hit Peak

inflation

uh and then in February of 2021 it took

about 16 months for us to hit Peak

inflation assuming that we've already

hit Peak inflation now generally Peak

inflation matched a recession that's

scary because after you hit Peak

inflation you actually were in a

recession people realized after the fact

oh damn when we hit Peak inflation we

were in a recession oh crap well wait a

second what did we actually have in the

second quarter of 2022 when we hit Peak

inflation

negative GDP we were technically in a

recession when we hit Peak inflation oh

my God look at that now does that

necessarily mean we have a Great

Depression ahead of us

well the one scenario where the answer

is possibly would be 1982 but notice the

money supply didn't really rapidly

expand in 1982 it did a little bit after

the recession printing out of the

recession but what you had was a

de-anchoring of inflation expectations

and this is where I can warn you about

what's happening tomorrow but let me

first just give you a quick summary so

we can put this money supply issue to

bed okay so quick summary on money

supply

normalization return to Trend makes

sense base effects makes sense that

we're going negative

and number two what you want to look at

for the math nerds okay that's why I'm

going to keep this really really short

number three now I'm going to keep this

really really short and put it in sort

of little summary segment here

you need to see a rapid expansion of the

money supply

at a rate of growth that is higher than

Trent

outside of a recession

and then you get massive inflation in

other words it's the first derivative it

is the acceleration the rate of change

of the rate of change right when you do

that you can see that the positive rate

of change

or the acceleration of money printing in

other words when you speed up how

quickly you're printing money that tends

to lead to inflation with a lag of about

an average of about 17 18 months that's

exactly what we saw this time

so this is completely normal for three

reasons it's normal it would be expected

in fact if you just went back two years

ago

fed should have seen this coming why

didn't they because the FED doesn't

actually pay attention to the money

supply as a tool for measuring inflation

they prefer the CP light I mean the CPI

report

well I technically they prefer the pce

but who cares same crap okay so what do

we want to pay attention to tomorrow who

is the biggest paper hander what

happened with Kathy Wood come on man

Kevin you're leaving us hanging here

first tomorrow we are going to get GDP

numbers now this is important because

the GDP numbers are going to be

indicative of do we think we might be

trending towards a recession we are

going to get a quarter over quarter GDP

growth number and then that is going to

be multiplied by four to get an

annualized GDP number please don't use

exponents I'm not doing a math lesson it

is a simple multiplication number don't

over complicate it if we get a 0.5

the survey says which is what the survey

says we should look at an annualized GDP

of two percent

the prior read was 2.6 if we get a big

Miss on GDP the stock market's gonna

lose their poopy doopies and they're

gonna have diarrhea because they're

gonna be worried that we're going into a

recession

if the number comes in hot means higher

for longer from the Fed so as usual

maybe you want something close to

estimate

or a little bit soft but not Mega soft

you get a big mess it's gonna be a

problem next inflation expectations you

don't want another Paul volcker of 1982.

we've talked about this plenty of times

before but tomorrow you're not only

going to get the pce release for the

Federal Reserve but you will also be

getting those University of Michigan one

year inflation expectations which did

de-anchor that comes out on Friday

that's going to be very important now

what other news do we have

well first I'd like to say which

generation

is the biggest paper hander

well congratulations

Millennials are the biggest paper

handers not only are millennials the

biggest paper handers but they are the

perfect example of apparently the group

of individuals who have to learn this

lesson on screen now that investors pay

a steep price for missing the best days

of O'Reilly here's the performance of

ten thousand dollars invested into the S

P 500 over 20 years ending 2022 and if

you were fully invested

that ten thousand dollars turned into

about sixty five thousand dollars if you

missed the ten best days you had half as

much money miss the 20 best days

eighteen thousand dollars Thirty best

days eleven thousand dollars you get the

idea and you start going negative

you be careful I was one thing I've

learned massive patience over this last

cycle and it's not just timing the

market once it's getting back in oh boy

and I hate to say it but I'm your poster

boy of a millennial

so next I think they're going to start

doing surveys of flip-floppers the good

news is I'm heavily invested I am very

very excited about our economy what's to

come in the future and I'm a big

believer in the sort of elongated Nike

Swoosh over this next decade I believe

wholeheartedly that in 2030 we're gonna

look back and go damn those were some

really good deals glad I bought

no guarantees now what else we have to

talk about let's talk about Kathy Wood

all right so Kathy what

indicated that she was concerned that 3M

you know the industrial manufacturer the

one that used to make a lot of masks and

stuff the industrial manufacturer

provided a negative growth uh to their

revenues and Kathy Wood argues that she

is or looking at

3M can usually be an indicator that the

economy is going into recession and Elon

Musk replied to Kathy Wood and suggested

are they simply looking at old data or

are they ignoring the bad data that they

have Kathy Wood replied and said they're

ignoring the bad data and this is a big

problem that when 3M comes in with such

negative numbers it's a bad Omen for the

economy So I responded and said hey

Kathy Wood how would you say Nestle

works that's a Swiss company in a uh

leading indicator scenario versus 3M

their quarter One Price growth below

spooked me a bit this morning and I'm in

Camp disinflation but remember I don't

just tell you what reiterates my thesis

I'm gonna go oh crap when I see

something okay I did not like that

McDonald's has massive PP in their

franchises again they raise prices on

their franchises franchisees yeah the

people running the franchises uh and

McDonald's has pricing power over those

franchises they expanded revenues at

like 10 and they grew their margins

that's great but they don't on the food

side they actually had negative pricing

power on the actual restaurants that

they operate but anyway back to Nestle

here

so my initial thought was this

represents likely volatile food

categories but then again if they're

able to raise prices because food prices

are going up why are milk prices down

nine percent and other food prices down

and so Kathy would replied she quote

tweeted replied me and I felt uttered

anyway so Kathy Wood replied and said

look at the volume declines the consumer

is railing against higher prices I have

never seen declines of this magnitude in

unit volumes of Staples in short

this is a short-sighted strategy to

bolster margins and it will backfire to

the benefit of generics and store brands

okay a lot to unpack there because it

was actually a phenomenal observation So

I responded great point I Revisited the

table and focused focused on this

specific number that is known as real

internal growth look at that chart on

screen here this paints a different

picture it actually real internal growth

is basically saying hey how much when we

take out inflation did our sales

actually go up and in many categories

they're actually negative rather than

positive

so now all of a sudden I write here in

other words even though the company

feels like they won because their

pricing was slightly greater than their

volume decline temporarily rewarding

shareholders consumers are reducing

volume and if competitors reduce volume

uh or reduce price that is if other

competitors are like oh our volumes are

going down let's reduce price to compete

like store brands and generics Nestle

will be forced to lower their prices or

end up suffering from a loss of market

share now I don't think this is like a

Smoking Gun that says oh my gosh short

this company but I do think

it is an indicator that maybe once again

when we first look at data that says oh

all the headlines Financial Times or

whatever Nestle is Raising prices they

have all this pricing power we actually

look at the details it's like well their

volumes are going negative in a lot of

categories and it's maybe a red flag

that we could see some temporary

leftover inflation but we're still

mostly on the trend of disinflation now

this is bullish right well

not according to the Wall Street Journal

see apparently quants are out of buying

power

170 billion dollars of global shares

have been loaded up in the last 30 days

the highest level since early 2022 and

now

positioning is near a peak and

unfortunately quants may become sellers

if we continue to downtrend yikes so are

we in a slowing economy well certainly

if you look at Google we are in a

slowing economy not only did a Google

and Google did decently they beat on EPS

now some of that was due to some fancy

accounting tricks we're talking about

that in the course member live stream uh

as well as Microsoft we're going through

their earnings in detail but what's

something that's very important when you

look at the Google earnings report and

I'm not trying to be a Google bear here

I love Google I use Google Cloud I have

friends that work at Google I actually

think they're a phenomenal company the

problem is

68.6 percent of their revenue comes from

Simply Google search

and Google Network Google network is

falling eight percent Google search is

only rising two percent and I don't

think that Google is taking Ai and how

it's going to disrupt search as

seriously as Microsoft is Microsoft

actually rallied because they're talking

about multi-billions of dollars of

opportunity if they get AI right they

are being serious about AI they are

being smart I think Google needs to get

serious serious because 68.6 of their

revenue is on the line so buckle up my

friends we are going to go through a

transition

and no I don't mean a Bud Light style

transition I just mean things are going

to change now do I really think that we

need to be extremely fearful and and if

you find this inspiring I really

encourage you to share this video like

the video subscribe let me know what you

think in the comments down below I'm

I've been reading the comments I really

appreciate your support

this fear

is it founded well things just aren't

actually that bad in my opinion in terms

of broad economic data could it turn bad

of course things could get a lot worse

maybe we're looking at information that

is is you know lagging and and maybe

maybe things are worse than they appear

but there's one thing that I can tell

you whether things are worse than they

appear or better than they appear as

long as you're alive knock on wood

you're healthy and you can invest in

yourself to make yourself more

productive whether you take courses to

educate yourself you read books you try

to be a little bit more efficient every

single day when you travel you pack your

bag a little bit better so that you

don't keep missing stuff when you go

travel I do the same thing too I'm

trying to get better every single time I

do something and that's important you

know people make fun of me sometimes

they're like oh Kevin's changing his

mind again yeah I changed my mind when

there is a better tool when there's

something that provides better value to

the customer better value to my team

better value to myself my family I will

always change my mind and you should too

and I will always promise to do the same

thing with the companies that I operate

for example my real estate startup house

hack I will guarantee you one thing

I will always flip-flop to what I think

is the most profitable strategy and that

is exactly what shareholders hire

Executives to do and this is why I think

Google needs to quickly flip-flop

anyway thank you so much for watching

this please stay strong Be Inspired

invest in yourself and you'll get ahead

of all of the drama thanks so much and

we'll see you soon bye