Everything is ABOUT to *SNAP* || THIS WARNING IS *RARE*

hey everyone me Kevin here something big

is about to happen and there's some data

that you need to know about that gives

us heads up on what it is now let's

first talk about why something big might

be happening first of all we are at

insane levels of uncertainty in the

market right now we have the potential

for a Counter Strike by Israel against

Iran we believe that Israel is going to

strike Iran's new nuclear facilities to

which of course Joe Biden says no no no

no please measured response how about

sanctions how about anything but more

conflict before the election I'm already

known for

warmongering so obviously politics is

playing a little bit of a role here but

the Biden Administration has made it

clear they do not want Israel to heavily

Counterstrike Iran ideally no counter-

strike at all like let's let's can we

let bygones be byon probably not it's

the Middle East after all on top of that

you've got the Port strike now the Biden

Administration here is also like hey uh

can you just pay the workers more money

come on we we we don't want to strike on

our hands and uh we need the union votes

so these things create alone substantial

uncertainty in markets but they're

obviously not the only things that we're

facing the issue is that a Counter

Strike by uh Israel in the Middle East

likely had has the odds of raising oil

prices even more we've already seen oil

prices rise as much as 5% yesterday

today oil prices were up as much as 4%

but as soon as Biden started encouraging

a chill out we actually saw oil prices

retrace back but the concern with higher

oil prices is of course higher inflation

now we'll talk about my opinions on this

inflation issue in a moment but that's

the concern oil prices transport prices

go up uh and therefore costs of goods

sold go up and companies have to pass on

the cost to somebody and it could be the

consumer but it's not just that because

components of producer prices do also

show up in the fed's preferred inflation

gauge the personal consumption

expenditures gauge which takes from both

CPI and

PPI okay great so yes oil and gas prices

even though they're part of the non-core

numbers can affect Downstream inflation

it's not good

obviously having a Port strike is

another thing that may increase

inflation for shipping rates though in a

weird way it actually might lower oil

prices because if you have ships sitting

anchored without using fuel they're just

waiting to get unloaded then you're not

creating necessarily energy inflation

but you are likely creating supply chain

snarls and those supply chain snarls

could lead to you guess it inflation now

now the real question that everybody has

on their minds is okay we we know about

these two uncertainties and so the real

question comes down to how long now

what's fascinating about how long is

what it actually leads to how long is

the fact that this already has been

known by Industries as both of these

frankly being a problem since well uh

frankly the Red Sea and the houthis and

Israel and has been a problem since

October of last year uh Red Sea issues

we've already known you got to start

ordering earlier but the board strike

issue really became an issue when the

long shoreman's Association went cold

turkey back in June after rejecting the

first offer and of course we had some

recent late night negotiations before

the expiration of the contract that

didn't work out long shoremen uh I

believe are now maybe down at 66% down

from their mid 70s who knows and The

Maritime Association or whatever they're

somewhere at 50% so we're getting there

in terms of uh wage gains uh over you

know a 5-year contract but we're not

there yet so we've we've known about

this since last year so this is a less

of a problem this right here we've known

about since June now what's interesting

is June is frankly if you look at the

data June was probably the slow lowest

portion of our

economy this is when uh in June and July

we really started seeing restaurants get

hit we started seeing earnings at

consumer good companies get hit and it

ended up leading to one of the lowest

labor reports in August which just left

the market kind of looking a little

poopy doopy wasn't good now

interestingly since then we've actually

been climbing back from the

bottom well maybe see the September

readings that we've gotten for things

like the job openings and labor turnover

survey the ADP report the jobs report

will probably get Friday some of the

information that we've gotten in terms

of uh ISM reports PMI reports outside of

manufacturing we've actually seen some

good things we've seen lower

inflationary prices on certain uh uh you

know items like a report this morning

pric is paid weigh in the toilet in the

manufacturing business but we're seeing

real slowdown in manufacturing not so

great but Services picking up a little

bit retail sales picking up a little bit

GDP picking up a little bit it's almost

like some things feel like they're

starting to pick up again a little bit

but is that pickup fugazi fugazi now why

would I say that pickup is fugazi fugazi

well it's possible that because we knew

this problem was happening this Port

strike was coming as of June that we

started placing more orders for whatever

hiring temporary staff for the holiday

season getting our goods and services in

place before the holiday season when do

you do that well probably the end of Q3

is a great time to maybe start getting

your shipments situated so there is a

belief that potentially some of this

recent bounce that we've seen may be in

anticipation of the Port

strike and so this then has created a

very fascinating dynamic in markets

right now since the Federal Reserve gave

us a surprise 50 basis point cut on the

same day just 17 years later as the 2007

50 basis point cut which of course led

to the stock market rallying for 6 weeks

and then crashing 52% over the next year

what we've actually seen is something

very very

strange we have seen 10year treasury

yields go up which is very odd because

you start this cutting cycle you've

actually seen the 10e treasury go from

about

3.62 all the way up to about

3.8 now you might not think that's a big

deal but what it actually does is it

tightens Financial conditions more and

so a lot of folks they look at this and

say okay well you know this is probably

because a lot of bond Traders had a lot

of profits here so they took profits

that's true it's also potentially

because the Port strike actually

happened and we have this inflationary

fear because of the Middle East these

are all things that could drive up

inflation expectations oh and GOI what

do you think is happening right now ah

inflation

expectations bottomed in September and

they've started ticking up again read

you the exact number right now so you

could have a little bit of Relativity in

terms of where we sit but that's not the

only thing we've got to talk about here

because this is there's there's some

important stuff coming up here 2.21 is

where we sit right now if you go to

September 10th oh it's my dad's birthday

you were at 2.03 on the 10-year Break

Even leading into the FED meeting uh and

that is down from uh the top over in

April of 22 so

42222 I'll put I should really just call

that 420 but it was 42022 uh and over

here at this state you were sitting at

about a three handle on inflation break

events usually you want inflation break

events to frankly be like right just

above 2% mostly because uh usually with

inflation Break Even slightly above 2%

you end up averaging 2% the consumer

goods economy and goods and services

make up about you know the consumer

makes up about 70% of the economy blah

blah blah blah blah this is why they

want wage gains to be a little bit above

the rate of inflation as well that's all

normal okay so inflation expectations

have gone up interesting okay so what

has happened though with

bonds and what are volatility is telling

us right now and what does that mean in

terms of what's going to happen next

well something that I shouted out to

course members today which is very

similar to what I did with Tesla

although I don't know what's going to

happen now the last time I shouted out a

historic volatility chart was right

before Tesla went from 175 to 250 we

looked at a chart we go oh my gosh this

has only happened four times over the

last 10 years pay attention to this and

uh sure enough within the next four

weeks Tesla was at 2 it was crazy uh

absolutely remarkable you can actually

still go back and watch that course

member live stream I called it one of

the most important course member live

streams ever the day I posted it uh and

remember you can always get lifetime

access for those course member live

streams by going to meetkevin.com we

have a coupon expiring this Friday uh

any course by the way gets access to the

course member lives but what are we

seeing right now well if you look at

something like a ticker uh

TLT and you pull up the historic

volatility chart for it or even the

10-day volatility chart for it you're

going to find something very interesting

you're going to find that volatility

right now on the 20-year Bond uh has not

sat this low since October of 23 maybe

September of

23

uh April I want to say

0424 April to May it was in that range

like towards the end of April uh and

right now

today so this is based on 10day historic

volatility we have not seen which the

chart us usually looks something like

[Music]

this you know usually you get stuff like

that we have not seen what is that I see

something uh White right there I want to

get rid of it can anybody help me spot

what that is before we talk about what's

going on over here nobody knows what

that is oh is it this yeah oh oh it's

the light we found it we have finally

found it there we go sorry little things

like that bother me still see it a

little bit oh well what does this

mean well it means that usually when

Bond volatility Falls this low we don't

stay

there that in my opinion is a sign that

something is about to happen but first

of all what happened at these two

points okay well what happened at these

two points was very

interesting October 23 can anybody

remember what happened with Bonds in

October of

23 you should know

this there's this person

called

Bill

Amman he's a hedge fund

dude

and let's just say he likes to talk his

book let's just say during covid during

the crisis he went on TV with some

delicious out ofthe money puts on the

stock market presumably and uh turned a

few million dollar wager into a few

billion dollars because right after he

goes on CNBC he goes we need to we need

to shut everything down for 30 days to

stop the spread like literally shut

everything down the people on CNBC were

speechless freaking Market tanks the

entire

week then you get October of

2023 ah what happened in October of 2023

folks it was The Great Bond short yes

the bill Amman Bond short if you

remember the 10-year treasury yield

literally ran up from about

4.3% on the

10-year and Bill lman screaming going

we're facing stagflation this is really

bad everything's going to hell this is

horrible oh my gosh there's so much

inflation they're never going to get it

down what happens he goes 10year yields

are going to blow past

5% and it's like out of a movie my

friends treasury yields on the 10 go

literally to about

4.99 maybe

4.95 I don't even know if that looks

like a 99 you there we go that's cut off

a little bit there

4.99 and he literally post

covered now in case isn't clear what

that means it means he went

short

here and when your short bonds and

yields go up you make money right

because the bond is losing value so the

yield goes

up and as soon as it gets to 4.99 it

doesn't even go through five even though

he's like it's going to blow past five

the sucker covers and he goes you

know at this point the um the value is

just too good to be true on the treasur

Bond you know what

[Laughter]

Legend H so what promptly happened after

that yields

[Laughter]

went so people are like oh Bill Amman

can't move the market line up his tweets

yes he can the market ain't as big as

you think kind of scary to think about

it that way people like oh my God the

shorts are manipulating the market maret

it doesn't take a lot of money to

manipulate the markets I don't think so

I've gotten a little jaded forgive me uh

maybe I'm becoming too in tune with uh

what you know market dynamics look like

but I've gotten a little jaded so uh yes

Bill AC can move the market so think

about that for a moment holy crap wait

so that's when bond market volatility

was at its

lowest

yeah cuz it basically just was going up

in a straight line and it didn't have a

lot of movement and then kind of just

slowly went down in a straight line and

see volatility doesn't come from that

that is not volatile because if you take

the first derivative of this you have a

flat

line now

how does this look for

volatility take the derivative of that

it's going to be a whole lot noisier

than straight up or straight

down so why do I bring that up well

because the second time we had such a

low in bond volatility was in April of

2024 well wait Billman didn't do

anything in

April no what happened in April 24 think

about it for a moment what happened in

April of

2024 that was unique that would make

bond

volatility be so

low well I mean it means they were going

in One Direction yes bond yields were

going up why were they going up oh my

God we had a full quarter of high

inflation January February March

second

wave yeah everybody was worried about oh

my gosh we've now had a full quarter of

higher inflation January February March

you know January they're like ah one

month doesn't make a trend February ah

two months doesn't make a trend three

months oh okay that's a

trend Market actually fell in April too

the stock market on this whole second

wave of inflation fear

so okay this is really interesting so in

other words when bond yields went

straight up thanks to Bill acman when

bond yields went straight up thanks to

fears of a second wave of inflation bond

market volatility was at record lows

because the yields were just every

day it's like a roller coaster you know

the chain link or

whatever so where do we sit today

right

there bond yields have been

basically straight up since jpow day on

September 17th so it's been about two

weeks straight

up now we have started to see a little

bit of aop but that might be because of

yesterday we saw you know Bond deals

fell because of the on or whatever it's

pretty minor had a little bit of a tick

up there and that's the 10day average is

the moving average that you like to use

other if you go by like the 3-day or 5

day it's ridiculous use the 10day

historic volatility and I think it gives

you plenty of a heads up so my argument

here is I don't know what in the H

double hockey sticks is about to happen

but the bond market tells me something

is about to

snap okay now I don't know if that's up

down we're going to speculate that about

that but something's about to

snap now uh I want I do want to talk

about what my opinion is regarding this

but I do just want to quickly shout out

uh that I am surprised how many people

when they get on a phone with my company

stock hack or like dude we had no idea

you could help us with our you know

advising on our trusts our retirement

our real estate our home our Le leases

our tenants our crypto uh our you know

uh businesses business Consulting

whatever and and I think honestly I've

made a mistake I think I have pitched

stock hack as a financial advisor

service and people just think oh okay

you're some dude who's trying to beat

the market no we're literally more like

a life coach or or a uh you know a

wealth coach is probably a better word

because you know I'm a licensed real

estate broker run a real estate broker

uh we we know how to do wedge deals we

we could take somebody with a net worth

we believe uh of you know 100K or 50k or

40K or whatever and if we can help them

buy a really good wedge deal which there

are plenty of that's how house hack was

able to turn 50 into $60 million in like

one year of operating which is crazy uh

well gee

then maybe maybe that is a we got to

figure out a better way to pitch that so

anyway let me know what you think about

that but stock hack.com if you want

learn more about that book an intro call

it's free but uh we can do a lot for for

every person that's called us I've look

at these scenarios every single day and

I'm like okay yeah I've got endless

things that I could help you with

because it all comes back to me anyway

all right so that brings us back to the

right side of the

board which is how long okay look if the

Port strike resolves itself tomorrow and

Israel does not attack Iran or there's a

lot of time between the attacks

all right cool maybe markets can just

keep cranking up honestly at this point

the jobs report for Friday is probably

already priced in we've probably already

priced in the assumption that at this

point we're just we're just not going to

have a bad jobs report on Friday and

that's likely because the ADP report

came in strong and the jolts report came

in strong and so both of those together

are probably suggestive enough for

markets to assume okay the jobs report's

probably going to be good Friday so

honestly for me to suggest that

unemployment claims as a catalyst

tomorrow it's not it's the market might

move off of it you might be able to

trade off it but it's stupid uh or to

suggest that jobs on Fridays are really

going to be a big Catalyst

now and I said this a few days ago like

the market will try to trade off this

stuff but the real

catalyst is going to come down to

earnings and this is where we have to

ask ourselves are earnings coming in bad

at certain companies because they suck

or is it macro like are iPhone

deliveries expected to be down because

they suck or is it macro are restaurants

performing poorly because they got

greedy and raised prices too much or is

it

macro I don't know but what I do know is

that we have earnings coming up between

about October 11th

and then we'll have CPI right after that

but October 11th to roughly the end of

October beginning of November of course

then you got the election everything you

have a lot of crazy

catalysts so not only do you have

earrings but you have the

election uh and then right after the

election you have the FED meeting and

then you have jobs

too and CPI in

there so you've got this insan menu of

catalysts here and it's entirely

possible that all of these things go

great inflation comes in low uh

everybody on average raises their

earnings Guidance the Port strike

resolves itself Iran resolves itself the

election fud goes away and the fed's

happy because GDP is looking

good well you don't have to be a bear

then probably that low in volatility on

bonds it would be odd but that low in

volatility on bonds might mean that bond

prices are just going to do that

Flatline for a bit uh I don't think so

because the chart would suggest that

you're about to have a big move in bonds

given the prior two lows I think bond

yields are for some reason about to

plummet because of the two prior

historical times we've seen this

I don't know what the catalyst is going

to be for it I'm just looking at this

chart going this is odd something is

about to happen I don't think it is

going to be an inflationary Catalyst I

actually think there's a chance that you

could do the following and and maybe

this is what the bond market sees coming

I don't know maybe the Port strike gets

solved uh or sorry uh the Iranian strike

gets solved and they figure something

out I don't know maybe the United States

gives Israel some money or something

maybe the United States gives the

Maritime Association some money to stien

these union workers now the union

workers are happy and The Maritime

Association is happy and nobody knows

but we just ran the money printer some

more do solve this political problem

cool I actually wouldn't be surprised

that both of those things are already in

the

works that then kills the uncertainty of

how long which then kills the inflation

concerns of both of these issues which

drives yields down but what else can

happen is even with stable jobs you

still have massive election

uncertainty I wouldn't be surprised you

get low inflation and I do think you're

going to get downward revisions on

earnings because even though companies

say they're starting to see green shoots

this next quarter of guidance that

companies are starting to to give just

seems to be negative across the board

then again maybe those are just again

crappy consumer companies like Nike

maybe they're just dead in the water

guiding Revenue down 8 to 10% next

quarter maybe Apple's phone just sucks

and that's why deliveries are expected

to be substantially lower and they're

already cancelling some manufacturing

part orders because they don't need to

make as many

phones same thing goes for various other

companies and obviously we'll study the

earnings as they come

out but whatever it is my opinion and I

just want to be clear about this is I

think that yields are about to plummet

they could plummet because these issues

get resolved they could plummet because

CPI comes in low they could plummet

because earnings come in Weak they could

also plummet because there's some kind

of shock they could also plummet because

the market decides to sell right before

the election

but when this plummet happens if this

thesis is

correct when that plummet occurs and

when these

uncertainties

Peak I want to leave you with a word I

have not used in a while and I want you

to see it I want you to hear it from me

first

[Music]

good luck everyone