Worst Data JUST Out in 12 Years | 60% Chance of Recession

well some of the data we got this

morning just isn't great in this video

we're going to go through the Richmond

fed data we're going to go through the

consumer confidence data and we're going

to go through some CFO data a lot of

this some of the worst we've seen in the

last 12 years keep in mind a lot of

these start compounding and they

actually worsen each other and volatile

up rallies in the stock market are often

faded in recessionary environment we'll

see if that happens today this morning

at a price target of 494 on the qes

we're basically right there right now so

we still have that bullish momentum

moving talked about that with everybody

who's part of the meetkevin membership

which you get pretty inexpensively over

at meetkevin.com but let's focus right

now first on some of these surveys some

of them the worst in the last 12 years

because they could signal some pain

coming ahead first of all about 60% of

CFOs according to CNBC are now expecting

a recession

but the headline is actually less

interesting than when you get to the key

components of the

article they indicate that between q1

and Q4 of last year we've actually seen

about a 10% decline in the level of

capital expense uh expenses or Capital

Investments companies expect to make

this is interesting because what about

all those companies saying oh we're

going to invest so much money into the

United States my unpopular opinion is

that a lot of these companies are saying

they're going to make these Investments

over the next four to 5 years but

they'll probably skew when they do that

to maybe 2 years from now to sort of

that latter 2-year period that way they

can get through the uncertainty of the

first period where we sit now on well

are we going to go into a recession or

not this at the same time as this

comment right here CFOs actually expect

treasury bond yields to remain expensive

or high between 4 to 5% well this

increases your cost to borrow for

Capital expenses in the first place see

in my opinion one of the best times to

actually invest in you know building out

factories is if there's a recession

there's a panic and rates go to zero

well now you can borrow very

inexpensively for your Capital

expenditures you could still have been

honest in what you declared you were

going to do but at these yields it seems

like you have potential more negative

weight ahead of you now we've got

multiple other surveys to hit this

morning but Bloomberg intelligence this

morning had a great P where what they

argued is that as bond yields stay high

you might actually find more pressure on

top of the stock market this is not

uncommon in fact what you usually end up

finding is the higher rates stay for

very long periods of time the more

uncertainty you get especially amongst

Russell 2000 companies about how long

they can really survive through some of

the pain and I think that's where you're

starting to see some rolling over in the

consumer confidence uh surveys really

starting to freak out businesses even

more I mean consider this for a moment

the consumer confidence index uh fell to

fell quite a bit the present conditions

uh component of it only fell about 3.6

points not that big of a deal however

future

expectations fell to their lowest level

in 12 years and well below the threshold

of 80 that usually signals a recession

ahead well that's not great now what is

interesting is if you go lower into the

actual report there's some talk about

the stock market that I want to point

out ah right here in November we had

about 57% of people expecting the stock

market to continue to go up in the year

ahead that is now down to only

37.4% of folks which is very interesting

because usually the opposite happens you

end up having

uh uh you know this enthusiasm over

stock and when everybody is enthusiastic

that's your contrarian signal to get out

and you know markets obviously topped uh

you soon after this November 2024 survey

in about the beginning of January now of

course we could always end up going to

alltime new Highs but take a look at

this confidence here because it's

seeming less confident especially

amongst those who have actually been

through recessions before people 55 and

older and those between 35 and 55 though

to a lesser extent became significantly

less confident those who

were less concerned about the future

were those under 35 and those households

earning more than

$125,000 per year the problem though

with this expectation signal is that

often times the Soft Data can end up

rolling over into the hard data that's

why when you look over here at this CFO

report that CFOs suggesting hey you know

we might end up wanting to spend a

little bit less money on our Capital

expenditures because of that consumer

confidence this these together are the

leading

indicators of poopy doopy coming which

isn't great and when you look at you

know this is the conference board this

is a CFO survey from CNBC when you look

at the University of Michigan report

which on the St Louis Fred website has

not updated yet to its nastier

preliminary data but the preliminary

data came in at about 64

which would be around November of 2023

levels kind of there where my uh it's

hard for you to see there uh this is

going to drop about mid-range into this

white box over here so you're going to

get a nice little drop if the final

report comes in the way it did earlier

in the prelim you can actually notice

that you you can get rapid declines in

sentiment at various times in the

economy and they don't necessarily have

to turn into a recession but usually

when sentiment declines below a certain

threshold you know in the case of this

chart over here that would be below the

70 level uh so so this sort of Gray Line

where my mouse is that's often

associated with a recession the

exception over here of 2011 going into

the Euros sovereign debt crisis and sort

of this fear of double dip recession uh

but you ended up getting uh that low

reading in 2022 this is again where

people are like n Kevin this is just the

continuation of the recession we've

already been in but watch if this ends

up rolling over tomorrow we'll get some

consumer durable reports as well that

said let's go over into our next survey

here which is the um uh Richmond fed

index uh that also indicates that

manufacturing activity slowed this

morning wasn't too much to get out of

this beyond that manufacturing activity

did slow which is somewhat in contrast

to some of the more positive data that

we got yesterday but we also this

morning had the Philly Services report

that came out so you're getting a lot of

these reports now over and over again

where it's it's kind of hard to say oh

everything's great because everything's

not necessarily great you are getting

pain now maybe that's a buying

opportunity maybe all these surveys will

flipflop and everything will turn

positive again uh but what we want to

pay attention to is what we got right

here non- manufacturing activity in the

region continues to decline now this is

in the Philadelphia region so it's

localized but the index for General

activity new orders sales and revenues

remain negative with the two further

comp former former uh two declining

further uh with firms reporting a

decrease in full-time employment and

decrease in part-time employment but

look at the rapidity of that drop over

here on the right this is why I think

it's really critical that we start kind

of getting over this tariff hump here

because we are at this position where

we're kind of messing with the economy

at a time where it probably shouldn't be

messed with now the stock market doesn't

always reflect what's going on in the

underlying economy but a lot of these

leading surveys could compound into some

real poopy doopy uh now uh what I would

pay attention to or some of the data

sets coming out future here I'm going to

go through some of them just so you have

them you can write these down on uh you

know your calendar or your you know

sticky note on your desk whatever is

good for you but what you're going to

want to watch for is uh the durable good

orders we get tomorrow at 5:30 a.m.

California time durable good orders and

durable X transportations durable good

orders overall are expected to be netive

- 1% and X Transportation so removing

Autos they're actually expected to be

+2% I want to see if we actually get

that plus. 2% because if we get negative

and negative not going to be great same

thing is true for Capital good orders

you know are we still going to see this

AI data set build out continuing you

know this morning we had a report that

the chairman of Alibaba suggested that

data centers are being overbuilt and

we're we're not matching the building

we're doing with consumer demand for

artificial intelligence that yes AI is

great but we're way overbuilding it this

is somebody in the industry essentially

calling a bubble these are warning signs

because when you have companies saying

hey we're overbuilding with ooh things

are uncertain consumers are uncertain

and maybe we should wait and delay our

investments that's when everybody starts

panicking and together you actually

self- fulfill the recession so these are

red flags that we want to pay attention

to uh another thing obviously I mean

initial claims is such a lagging

indicator I don't really care about that

one on Thursday wholesale inventories

retail inventories we're expecting rises

in inventories just to sort of pre-stock

before tariffs not uncommon uh and then

we have pce coming out on Friday along

with the final read for March of that

University of uh Michigan sentiment

survey it's actually expected to come in

at

57.9 which is even lower than you saw on

that 64 chart from the prelim read so

you could get a you could get a real you

know oopsy doopsy slip there on that

chart when it updates on the St Louis

Fred website on Wednesday we'll also get

the Atlanta fed real GDP that should

update to remove sort of the gold

Imports uh level so we should see that

go back to about point my guess would be

somewhere around 04 well that's what

their guess was was 04 but my guess is

probably somewhere around like 0 4 to8

somewhere in that

range and then on April 1st we'll be

getting our jolts reads Dallas

manufacturing activity ISM Manufacturing

and prices paids uh the beginning of

April data will be very interesting to

see what kind of movement we got in

March especially with that April 2nd

deadline looming so anyway this gives

you a little bit of a look into some of

the surveys and and movements that are

going on this morning really appreciate

you being here and folks we'll see you

in the next one goodbye and good luck

why not advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take