Why I Sold Stocks & Crypto | A $20,000,000 Market Bet.

this is a video you're going to want to

watch in its entirety or else you'll end

up like the karen whiners who

misrepresent my actions or what i

believe is going on in the market now

you have to know these two things though

in order to keep going the two things

you have to know is that you're always

going to get radical transparency from

me on this channel as to what i believe

is going on in the market i will tell

you everything about what i believe is

going on in the market if i'm shorting

the market i will tell you that i can't

make a video every time i fart and buy

or trade a stock i do that in the stocks

and psychology of money course down

below and links you know that but

otherwise my overall moves in the market

you know everything that i'm doing you

know when i open a short you know when i

close a short you know what i'm making a

bet on the market or i'm not making a

bet on the market and number two if i

say i'm going to do something i'm going

to do it so for example if i say i'm

going to huddle amc for a year i am

going to do that i'm not going to just

say it and then a month later change my

sentiment and sell it and just not tell

you about it never bring it up again

that happens that's not me though now

something that i do may not align with

your strategy it may not align with your

hopes and desires but ultimately hope is

not a strategy the truth a plan and

conviction is what creates the strategy

and that's what you're going to get in

this video now let's get into this video

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let's get started the onsen the onset

rather of world war one sparked a boom

for farming now why are we talking about

world war one because we're going to

find similarities

commodity prices skyrocketed the price

of wheat hogs milk and corn

doubled more than doubled leading to

rampant agricultural inflation thanks to

substantial shortages

expecting the boom to continue farmers

took on massive amounts of debt to

expand their operations the average

price of land thanks to all this new

debt doubled in america

so massive inflation led to a massive

real estate boom commodity prices more

than doubling which ultimately led to a

massive production boom and the short

term was great high prices high profits

however just like all pain comes to an

end euphoria also comes to an end we

ended up over producing leading to an

oversupply of agricultural resources

guess what happened next since farmers

were now under heavy debt burdens for

expanding their businesses at the top of

the business cycle they had to drop

their prices to stay competitive to sell

any of their products and ultimately to

service their debts as a result

agricultural prices plummeted and within

10 years 60 out of every 1 000 farmers

went bankrupt that was just the start of

the pain though because that's only six

percent

but

the climax came with the great

depression and it took another 10 years

for the agricultural economy to fully

recover from its pain the great

depression is often marked by black

tuesday which was october 29 1929 but

what we generally don't talk about is

what led up to black tuesday the stock

market experienced something that it

hadn't been used to

it was speculation by hobbyists on

stocks trading stocks became a hobby

individuals began buying stocks solely

in anticipation that price would go up

these were individuals who didn't know

anything about fundamental analysis or

understanding the true present value of

a business fundamentals went out the

winding which i hate to say sounds

really familiar

but what's worse number two

people took on massive margin debt even

though only three percent of individuals

invested in stocks in 1929 one-third of

all wealth in america was concentrated

in the top one-half of one percent and a

lot of this was propped up by debt

financed with cheap rates

and a blowing up stock market

but when stocks began losing value in

1929 especially around the time of black

tuesday and fundamentals finally

returned to the question potentially

even less so because people are now

fearful of the markets what came next a

true trickle down economics consumers

became fearful and stopped spending they

started hoarding cash businesses became

fearful they stopped hiring stopped

investing and stopped spending as much

of course things don't go to zero capex

plummeted this along with high debt and

an overproduction of supply in many

industries even beyond agriculture led

to a massive nasty crash that took

america five years to recover from it

wasn't by the dip and were good in five

weeks it wasn't by the dip and were good

in five months it was five

years see this sort of insane

speculation has happened as well in 2000

with the internet bubble somebody who

bought in 2000

needed to wait about 14 years just to

break even on prices they paid that

means they had to ride through the 2008

recession

just to end up getting to the other side

of the 2008 recession to break even on a

purchase they made in 2

000. that's 14 years of a zero percent

return on average unfortunately i can't

help but find some massive similarities

to these prior markets to today we have

massive chip and shipping induced

inflation accelerated by complications

arising out of societies dealing with

covet in a different way or different

ways look at china versus the united

states misinformation around masks and

preventing covet but also complete

distrust in the fact that vaccines could

be something that could help us

and so far they're not doing a good job

while some agricultural commodities are

spiking now commodities related to chips

and metals and shipping have skyrocketed

and businesses are expanding their

productive capacities with more and more

cheap money but that cheap money is

coming to an end right now what we're

seeing is prices and wage prices

increasing and becoming so common in

companies like chipotle where they

openly brag in their earnings call about

how they can charge customers more money

despite their input costs not actually

rising and then other companies who do

have input costs rising or bragging

about how much as a percentage they can

pass along to the consumers this is

called pricing power phenomenon that

occurs when individuals have higher bank

balances and the psychological mindset

that prices and price increases are the

norm

this is inflation see inflation isn't

just prices going up it isn't just the

expansion of the money supply it's the

psychological belief that it is okay to

pay more money and as we do prices or

companies take advantage of us as a

result of these pricing powers the

federal reserve now describes uh quote

excessive valuations in the housing

market and stock market and that's led

by the fact that sellers are essentially

the price makers companies uh whether

they're sellers or companies are able to

set prices and people are paying them

now the federal reserve is starting to

try to rein in the madness by first

increasing rates when the federal funds

rate increases it can have the effect of

raising other interest rates whether

that's margin interest rates

or just straight-up lending rates

when rates rise borrowers tend to reduce

the amount of borrowing they do this

makes sense consumers borrow less money

because it's more expensive to borrow

margin debt or take out personal loans

or home equity lines of credit interest

rates go up

when rates go up businesses suffer from

the same aspect but businesses also have

the second factor that if consumers are

borrowing less then demand might decline

so businesses especially tend to borrow

less money when rates rise

this has the effect again of consumers

reducing demand as financing costs

increase but businesses reduce

investment as demand declines this is

kind of like and it's much more

complicated than this but if you think

of an analogy it's kind of like the

federal reserve taking the foot off of

the gas on a car that's driving way too

fast on the highway 100 miles an hour or

120 miles an hour let's just say and

then slightly tapping on the brakes to

get the car back to 80 miles an hour the

car is still going fast we're not in

this slow down phase where we're on the

highway in stop and go traffic that

would be very bad if we slowed down that

much but we're trying to get from 100 to

120 on this nitrous that somebody poured

in the gas tank

back down to a normal speed for the

highways between 65 and 80. see we were

just driving too fast unfortunately

driving a car is relatively easy driving

a global economy is next to impossible

and that's what the supposed a political

body which means not political body of

the federal reserve is tasked with they

pretty much lead the global economy even

though they're just supposed to lead the

american economy since we are the

largest economy by twofold twice the

economy economic size and right of china

we lead the global economy so we're told

to expect prices to fall when production

meets demand which is a known risk that

if demand plummets too rapidly then we

could end up in a deflationary spiral

and ultimately a recession right of

course if we don't tap the brakes that

is the fed doesn't tap the brakes we

might end up losing control and ending

up in a hyper inflationary crash and so

this is where the federal reserve is

really tasked with dealing with two

extremes i think the easiest way to

picture this is a large balance beam

about eight feet tall and all of us in

america are standing under this balance

beam on top of the balance beam is a

massive sheet of plywood and there are

two weights on either side and if this

balance beam breaks and this plywood

comes down we're all getting hurt

or crushed in the markets

and see the federal reserve is is the

one standing in the middle trying to

balance uh this balancing beam on on a

little pyramid and on each side of the

plywood

is one the risk of a deflationary spiral

slowing the market down too much to

where we end up with a deflationary

spiral we're spending slow so much that

we end up in a recession because what is

a recession it's two quarters of a gdp

decline in a row okay well if consumers

stop spending so much that gdp turns

negative even slightly negative for two

quarters you're in a recession you're at

a technical recession the same would be

true on the opposite end if we don't

control prices and prices continue to

explode the way they have been

and we end up with hyperinflation that

leads the federal reserve to have to

raise rates so substantially that then

we crush demand through high interest

rates where borrowing becomes almost

impossible because rates are so high

demand gets crushed and we go into

recession right both of these options

are bad i like to call them the two

extremes

and so what we're really all hoping for

right now

is we're all standing under this

balancing beam looking at jerome powell

and the finesseness of the federal

reserve to keep this balancing beam in

order unfortunately market psychology

has changed and we've lost some respect

for jerome powell's ability to keep this

balancing beam afloat see after joe

biden's meetings with jerome powell

whether it was for jerome powell keeping

his jobs or not his job or not jerome

powell changed his mindset after his

meetings with drum powell and became

much more hawkish on controlling the

economy hawkishness that could

potentially benefit joe biden blaming

politics though here doesn't really

matter it doesn't really matter what

changed in jerome paul's world what

matters most is that markets have to

some degree lost faith in jerome

powell's ability to protect us and this

could be because of his u-turn on

transitory it could be because of a

sudden u-turn after meeting with joe

biden which implies that there's more

politics here at play than uh the

reality of wanting to provide factual

information but again it doesn't really

matter what matters most it doesn't

matter why people have lost faith what

matters is that people have lost some

degree of faith

and this loss of faith has led to the

rampant fear-building speculation

that will likely dampen any semblance of

good news that this market expects and

has been the reason every day it seems

like on certain stocks we're hitting

all-time new lows

and we're at least 52-week new lows

and it feels like any rally that we have

is really convictionless

let me give you an example jerome powell

has made it clear that he does not

expect to raise rates until the taper is

complete however now because market

participants uh do not believe jerome

powell as much they are speculating that

jerome powell is going to rug pull us on

january 25th which is just in a few days

with a surprise rate hike

previously the first rate hike from the

federal reserve was expected on march

16th which speaking of march 16th jerome

powell and the federal reserve and their

summary of economic projections project

a 25 basis point increase

that's a quarter of one percent

unfortunately now again because market

participants don't really believe the

fed they're speculating that the fed may

raise rates by 50 basis points which is

twice as much on march 16th

again doubting the federal reserve which

frankly is understandable

but hey things are different now right i

mean we've started to get some positive

catalysts right i mean like services and

manufacturing pmi showed some hope on

inflation that we should be optimistic

on inflation inflecting down right and i

mean j-power wouldn't want to crash the

market right

that may be true but folks one of the

most important things to consider is the

psychology in investing and this is what

i talk about in my course on stocks on

the psychology of money where i walk you

through tactics for different markets i

don't stick my head in the sand and

maintain the same tactic over and over

when markets change i provide you

rationale for that change and i provide

actions that could help protect our

portfolios in those times no guarantees

of course

but here's the thing stock valuations

are built on three things and we're

going to talk about is this time really

different stock valuations are built on

three things number one is fundamentals

number two is technical trends and

number three is momentum you can kind of

layer these together

and layer three momentum can vary

substantially based on individual

sentiments and individuals fears so for

example if

the valuation of a stock is the sum of

these three different levels and then

when you add up this sort of piece of

paper here you get the valuation of

stock uh and let's say the valuation is

right here it's x at the top which means

we've gone through the fundamental layer

the technical layer and the momentum

layer then what happens when momentum

potentially turns negative and we

potentially see stocks trading below

their fundamental fair value well those

are really good by the dip opportunities

right but the point is that momentum

alone could end up dragging all of these

substantially negative and momentum is

driven by

fear people's belief in the market

okay well let's now compare to a time

when we had a shift of psychology

similar to what we're seeing right now

now we're seeing a shift in psychology

in how much we believe the federal

reserve well in 1987 we also had a shift

in psychology folks trusted the fed less

and as a result became fearful in fact

consider this in a well popularized on

youtube 1987 news report the news anchor

says quote investors previously saw the

economy with a glass half full now they

see it with a glass half empty

the same is happening in 2022. seventy

percent of individuals are unhappy with

the state of our economy and believe

that inflation is out of control and

likely to stay out of control for some

time

in addition in that same 1987 report we

were told that there were quote renewed

fears of inflation with a decline in the

dollar

we also had rising interest rates and a

huge budget and foreign trade deficits

to deal with

and we were then described as a nation

quote living beyond its means

well folks what do we have today so far

in 2022 the dollar is declined we have

massive inflation we have fears that

inflation is going to continue we have

fears that interest rates are going to

go up and we have substantial trade

deficits especially with china and it's

fears that drive the market

not generally actual catalysts now

actual catalysts can put fears to rest

consider in the 2020 election the stock

market sold off substantially prior to

the election because there was fear that

the transition of power would be a

disaster in america it wasn't until a

few days after the election that the

market rallied and took off

and we also got approval on vaccines but

the market started recovering before

vaccine approval came and that's because

the fear catalyst of the election went

away

but for the two three weeks before the

actual election day we had a lot of pain

in the stock market

the 1987 news report showed us the same

kind of psychology at play

we saw this happen in 2018 as well in

2018 the housing market fell 12 in one

month

in may to june when interest rates

jumped one percent in four weeks

well in the last four weeks housing

interest rates for the 30-year fixed

rate mortgage are up 0.6

60 of the way to one percent folks

history does not necessarily repeat

itself but it can often

rhyme and the biggest issue we have now

is sentiment trending

down you could be the best fundamental

analysis in the world but if you're

buying zoom

when you're not realizing that the

market has changed its sentiment away

from zoom i don't care how good of a

company zoom is markets go down and take

zoom down with it substantially

so where do we stand today well drone

pal's meeting on the 25th of january

three days before my birthday is when

the federal reserve is expected to by

some raise hikes and if the federal

reserve does raise hikes on the 25th it

will come as a shock

and a u-turn to what the federal reserve

said i would expect indices to follow

4-5

but i don't actually believe the federal

reserve is going to rug pull us

this means the next catalyst will be q4

earnings massive tech companies

reporting and here's what happens with

earnings everyone is excited about

amazing q4 earnings but i think

individuals and investors and

institutions are forgetting to some

degree that nobody cares about q4

earnings they could be great you know

what everybody really cares about

guidance

q one guidance that's what stocks trade

off

what's happening right now

apple tomtom google mobility data down

substantially because of omicron

business is closing

because they don't have enough staff

adele canceling her concert four hours

before it's supposed to begin because

she can't get enough employees to

actually show up for work because of

omicron is everybody's calling out sick

do we actually think that q1 forecasts

are going to be good in the midst of of

omicron i hope so i really hope so but

here's the reality

if forecasts are bad

stocks will fall

if earnings beat and forecasts are good

despite omicron guess what signal that

sends to the person holding up the board

the federal reserve what signal does it

send to the fed well if earnings beat

heavily and forecast beat heavily during

omicron

it gives the fed more reason to raise

rates and that is going to increase

fears not for jan 25th but for march

16th so in other words good news is bad

news

bad news is bad news if earnings miss

the stock market punishes companies just

look at peloton or netflix

even though peloton had some potential

misinformation we don't really have to

go deep on peloton right now

it's not q4 earnings that matter it's

the q1 forecast and it even if they're

positive it's just going to increase

fears about what the federal reserve is

going to do to react the federal reserve

watches earnings they watch what ceos

say because it is the best measure we

have of what's happening in the economy

is what people are actually doing with

their money

now banks have recognized that consumer

saving rates are back to pre-pandemic

levels it's not ideal people saving less

money means that potentially they have

less discretionary money to spend banks

also do not expect consumer bank

accounts to increase in size this year

now even though existing bank account

sizes are larger than what they were in

2019 again banks are not expecting those

consumer accounts to increase

and the savings rate is down to what it

used to be

not anymore the large savings rate that

we had during the year of 2020.

this

all together leads to a decline in

spending power i expect that some of

this will potentially be evidenced in q1

forecasts

but don't just take the this opinion for

it take a look at how home loans

searches for home loans have behaved in

the past five years they hit the lowest

bottom in q4 that they had in the past

five years but it's not just home loans

it was also auto loans take a look at

auto loans now we know there are less

auto loans available and and seasonally

there could be an issue here

but the housing market while it feels

like they're short inventory we're

actually still selling more homes it's

just homes are coming in the market and

selling very quickly so to see this this

double correlation here between

lows that we haven't seen seasonally

over the last five years something to

pay attention to who knows again

hopefully we get really positive q1

expectations for tech companies and

other companies

but anyway

margin debt in our country hit a high of

935 billion dollars in october remember

we talked about in 1929 massive debts

fortunately margin debt has fallen

margin debt has fallen two percent in

november and about one percent in

december but if we compare margin debt

to january of 2020 right before the

pandemic we're actually 66

more in margin now than we were then

that means in just 23 months margin debt

exploded 349 billion dollars almost all

of that was added

since the summer of 2020. and now since

many stocks are revisiting

where they were selling in the summer of

2020 individuals who borrowed to invest

in stocks at those levels could

potentially start seeing their principal

get eradicated and when people's

principle starts getting eradicated

people really start getting nervous

remember principle is what you

contributed to the market your gains

getting better eradicated or less

painful than seeing your actual

hard-earned money get eradicated the

same is true of cryptocurrencies

most people began purchasing

cryptocurrencies at the beginning of

2021.

well if we fall below those prices we

could see the same sort of fear now

this means all of this together

the eyes and attention on jerome powell

on january 25th and march 16th are gonna

be huge so where's some good news

because so far this is all painful i

mean so far it sounds like the

manifestation of our future is either

more stock market declines or

convictionless rallies that ultimately

end up selling off which is kind of

what's been happening institutions seem

to be selling off stocks at the last two

to four hours of the trading day every

single day potentially taking advantage

of by the dipping retail investors and

offloading their bags onto them but what

do we think in terms of positive

catalyst there has to be some positive

news right yeah i personally think the

earliest positive catalyst that we could

get would be cpi data cpi data comes out

on february 10th for january and on

march 10th for february now this is not

a guarantee but if we finally see an

inflection point down in cpi it could

cool the federal reserve and since

everybody's got their eyes on the

federal reserve maybe markets could

finally start rotating to the upside so

february 10th and march 10th are going

to be important days now i don't know

that uh february 10th will be early

enough for us to see any kind of

inflection so it's more likely going to

be march 10th that we see an inflection

point down inflation though that might

not even happen

the next catalyst after that uh you know

if the fed does try to assuage markets

and settle markets down because cpi is

going down and they end up being less

aggressive the next catalyst after that

would be the market seeing rate

increases and then realizing that okay

rate increases are not that bad

but what i i want you to consider is

what history told us about when markets

reacted in the micro in the short term

to actions from the federal reserve

consider this and this is why those fed

dates are so important on december 19th

2018 the market fell substantially when

the federal reserve raised rates two and

a half percent or two two and a half

percent

but the market bottomed two days later

so the fed raised rates and the market

hit bottom two days later

and the rally of 2019 began

this could have been because the federal

reserve reduced their outlook for more

rate hikes at the end of 2018 the fed

reduced their expectations for rate

hikes to two hikes from three hikes for

2019 and the market traded that

positively within two

days

s p and nasdaq had sold off 20

and the bottom of the market came when

the biggest fear date which in my

opinion is now either march 25th or

sorry january 25th or march 16th came

and went

consider march of 2020. the market

bottomed on march 23rd which was

literally the day the federal reserve

announced unlimited bond buying

basically unlimited quantities of

of

lending and spending programs to make

sure that businesses and companies would

stay afloat the market rotated up on

these views it did stumble for about 10

days after this we hit a second bottom

on april 3rd it was higher than march

23rd but the market really started

taking off so it took about 10 days of

shock and the market took off when the

federal reserve acted

the irony here is these programs were

barely used they were a mere indication

that the federal reserve was willing to

stop at nothing to bail out the market

it was unlimited bailout money now get

this in october of 2008 tarp was passed

a 700 billion bailout program but the

market kept falling

it kept falling until q1 of 2009. what

happened in q1 of 2009 in fact

specifically in february of 2009 ah

the fed announced liquidity in february

of 2009 with the following quote the fed

is prepared to undertake a substantial

expansion of the term asset-backed

securities loan facility aka telf and

the expansion could increase the size of

talf as much as one trillion dollars and

could broaden eligible collateral to

encompass other types of entities

how crazy is that congress announces a

massive bailout in october of 2008 but

the market keeps dropping it's when the

fed finally comes out with a larger

bailout in february of the market

bottoms these were the bernanke days but

folks nothing has changed the fed suite

talking us with money or lowering

aggressiveness to move this market is

what moves the market

still don't believe me how about this

when did the s p 500 bottom after the

2000.com crash

it was q2 of 2003.

guess what else happened then the fed

finally got rates down to one percent

they made their final decrease of rates

to one percent in q1 uh in q2 of 2003.

and because the economy was still

sluggish personal spending was down in

the fourth quarter from the federal

reserve's january meeting of 2003 trade

deficit was widening blah blah blah the

federal reserve reduced rates became

less aggressive and what happened the

market rotated up

so the reality here is folks no matter

what happens in our market over the next

60 days

everybody is looking at the fed

everybody is looking at what the fed is

doing with this big bouncing beam as

such i'm making an extended outsized bet

that january 25th and march 16th are

going to be critical catalyst days for

our market and we're going to hit peak

fear before those dates it's possible

that we're hitting peak fear now but i

don't believe that we're necessarily

hitting peak fear now because

everybody's going to be paying attention

to march 16th january 25th is kind of

expected to be a nothing burger but who

knows maybe powell will give us some

indications for march 16th which is why

january 25th is so important now i also

believe that markets are relatively

quick to respond to bad news from the

fed and slow to respond sometimes taking

two to ten days to respond to good news

from the fed well in my opinion we have

three courses forward and we'll talk

about my bad i believe we are

teetering between two dangerous paths of

recession and one neutral path i really

do believe that that neutral path

path has has a likelihood of happening

that we're not necessarily going to go

into that uh hyper inflationary style

recession or that deflationary style

recession this this kind of just like a

quick little sketch picture of what i'm

talking about i wrote myself kind of a

little bit there that i'm hoping we're

going to have the chill normalized fed

and disinflation disinflation means

inflation going down

not necessarily going negative right

disinflation is is what we're looking

for we're hoping for that inflection

point down right and so in my opinion i

think there are three paths for

individuals portfolios

number one for most passive investors

into index funds in my opinion the best

answer here is probably and not

financial advice for any of this

obviously but huddle and just buy the

dip dollar cost average your income cut

spending increase your contribution to

the market again dollar cost average and

now could potentially be a time to do

that a second path could be selling uh

to uh go to cash as a hedge so there's

path two a sell and go to cash as a

hedge path two b could be huddle but by

weekly puts as a way to hedge path two

is all about hedging over path two c you

could sell just enough to eliminate your

margin and then path three is do nothing

so you have these three overall paths

one just dca keep buying the dab path

two is hedge and path three is do

nothing path two is more of a traitor

mentality right

and quite frankly sometimes doing

nothing is best which is path three

sometimes continuing to dollar cost

average is also bad best it's the

passive way to invest the easiest thing

to do i think it's the wisest thing to

do now in this pa case though i

personally have

chosen to trade

uh these market catalysts now i could be

entirely wrong i hope i am i hope we're

at peak fear and we've hit the bottom of

the market and uh you know we rally like

crazy i i don't really think markets can

rally on anything other than january

25th and march 16th going substantially

better than we believe as i've described

how the market tends to historically

react now i've sold 99.15 of my stocks

and my entire crypto portfolio

of the cash that i have right now i am

5.56

short the market so of the cash i have

i'm 5.5 percent short at the market with

a put option on the market uh and it's a

short-term one so i want to be

completely transparent this means i have

no margin i have nearly 20 million

dollars in cash and about 1 million in a

short position now i expect to trade

back entirely into the market within 60

days this is extremely risky and has

exposed me to substantial capital gains

but after buying each dip of march of

2020 i've been extremely consistent

extremely consistent i mean i you know

people people like to say oh kevin

hasn't been consistent that's not

actually true if we go back to march of

2020 kevin's been on this path buy the

dip buy the day buy the dip

always buy the dip right

now kevin is changing directions so it's

fair to say yeah that is a change of

direction and this change of direction

came suddenly uh it actually came

thursday night after i uh throughout the

night did a substantial amount of

of additional research on top of all of

the years of research i already have

into this economy and when i combined

new information

with all of my old experiences and all

of my old research understanding this

market on a day-to-day basis i am

worried that

we're really just at the lifeboat stage

of the titanic so it's kind of like the

titanic hit the iceberg maybe we hit the

iceberg in december it's like ah crap

the fed's actually going to respond to

inflation

but

we're now just getting on the lifeboats

we're not at the sinking phase yet and

we're certainly not at the rescue phase

yet that's just my belief and so i'm

making an outsized bet on this i believe

this creates an opportunity for me to

lower my risk and exposure to the market

and to time a better result now this

could be very stupid because again we

know that time in the market beats

timing the market

we know that it's much safer to dca but

when you're exposed 100

to higher valuation tech companies

you might consider

taking a more protective approach

especially if you're also exposed to

margin and especially if you have other

cash needs coming up

but the most important bottom line out

of all of this is i expect more fear to

get priced into this market between

january 25th and march 16th and so i

plan to re-enter the market very

suddenly i'm going to very suddenly buy

right back in with a balance of

short-term call options and share

purchases all of which will be available

to members of the stocks and psychology

money course so i will be spending

money on put contracts over the next few

weeks and i will be spending money

buying back into this market over the

next 60 days i'm taking the entire

portfolio and i'm trading it which is

extremely risky and i don't advise

anybody to do it but if you want to know

every single fart that i make with that

20 million dollars

use that link down below and join the

stocks and psychology of money course so

that you could see

how and why i'm reallocating and that

way i can really use my portfolio to

leverage what i believe will happen in

the market however it's really

important to follow the checklist and

understand what the market needs to rise

number one

the fed fear needs to end i don't

believe this is likely until march 16th

cpi data needs to indicate an inflection

down we have not seen this yet this is

unlikely until march 10th number three

strong earnings are unlikely to convince

institutions to go long because

institutions represent client money and

as long as clients are fearful about the

federal reserve and uncertain about the

federal reserve markets hate uncertainty

i don't believe that institutions can

buy the dip until the fear catalysts go

away otherwise they'll likely lose

substantial clients and hedge funds do

not want to lose clients if you had a

bunch of clients and 100 million dollars

under management do you want to invest

when your clients are saying hey if

you're not protecting us right now we're

out and we're taking our money out

it's important to consider that that's

why we're seeing shorts so high that's

why we're seeing so much selling

so again markets and institutions need

to feel like the fed's fund rate

increasing

uh well first of all fear reduces at the

fed but then also the markets need to

realize that the fed funds rate

increasing is actually not that big of a

deal it's usually the fear that leads up

to it that's the bigger deal

so once these things clear then i

believe we have the conditions for a

proper economic recovery not a fake out

convictionless rally because sadly right

now markets regularly sell off in the

second half of the day implying

institutional outflows and trades or

traders taking advantage of the buy the

dip crowd now to be extremely clear this

is a massive trade and highly risky this

is not financial advice i will be back

in the market very soon but i'm waiting

for the proper catalyst to return and if

you're not actively engaged with the

market on a regular basis like i am

literally all day every day eight hours

a day

passive investing is probably best if

you're more of an active trader

buckle up ultimately though the choice

is yours thanks so much for watching

check out the programs on building your

wealth link down below with a massive

coupon expiration on january 28th

especially since our path course comes

out at the end of this month that's

super exciting and check out stream yard

via the link down below thanks so much

bye