WORST Data since 2008 *JUST OUT*

We just got some bad news on the

economy. And this is really annoying

because it feels like one day we get

good news, then the next day we get bad

news, then we get good news, then we get

bad news. And that's actually

reminiscent of an economy that is in

transition. The question is, are we at

2007 levels or 2011 levels of transition

where we're just sort of like, oh man,

that was a crazy recession we went

through in 2011, right? maybe again in

22 uh until they change the definition.

Or are we about to go into the pooper

dupers? Challenger job cuts report that

just came out this morning indicates

that layoffs for October were the

highest since 2003. We need to talk

about that, but we also need to talk

about a hidden detail that nobody's

going to talk about because it's buried

in the report and it's actually

potentially more critical. But let's

look at the headlines first. So

October's pace of job cutting was much

higher than average for October. It's

really odd to see these kind of large

cuts going into the holiday season. Now,

of course, Amazon defends this, for

example, with their layoffs of 14,000,

which are part of this, obviously, I at

least presume, uh, by saying, "Oh, well,

you know, this was just sort of like the

corporate layer. We're not hire, you

know, we're not firing people that we

need in like the seasonal retail

division. We still want to sell to

consumers, which I, you know, still

think is a little questionable. Why not

then wait till like January or February?

But whatever. Job cuts surpass 1 million

for the year, highest total since 2003.

Mind you, we also have the worst October

uh not only since 2003, but what you're

about to see is the worst since 2008. So

again, I'm kind of like uh uh total job

cuts for the year are at a million and

October's pace of job cutting was much

higher than average for the month. Some

companies are saying they're correcting

after the hiring boom after the

pandemic. But this also comes as AI

adoption and softer consumer spending

and corporate spending as well as

increased costs are leading to belt

tightening. And I actually like the jade

here because I I kind of think this

whole like, oh, we just hired too much

after the pandemic is a nice excuse

that's relatable because people are

like, yeah, it was like there were a lot

of companies were hiring because it was

hard to find employees. But let's be

real, when you've got increases in cost

from inflation and you've got tariffs,

somebody's going to take it in the

margin. And usually it's the

corporations that go, "Crap, we can only

take so much." much. I mean, if you look

at the ISM and PMI reports yesterday, uh

what you end up finding is the companies

are saying like, yeah, you know, costs

are still going up. McDonald's is like

costs are still going up, but we can't

pass them on to the consumer because

people aren't paying. There's no PPE.

There's no price.

>> So, this is normal. We expected this to

happen. Cava, Chipotle, they're all

getting wrecked. Malls, I mean, these

are consumer-based. McDonald's is

complaining about it. Uh McDonald's is

trying to pitch you a 99 cent coffee

every day to to compete against

Starbucks. Starbucks is selling off

their businesses in China because their

China bet failed. And this mall I went

to yesterday, I love this kind of

research, by the way. I went to this

mall yesterday. It's called the Thousand

Oaks Mall. And what was remarkable is

the business just sold to another

company. And I looked at the earnings

call for the company that originally

owned it, which is ticker symbol MAC, a

Maul Ree. And I'm like, how come this

Mully is saying in their earnings call

that they are 94% occupied when I'm

like, bro, I'm walking through this, I'm

like, that's vacant, that's vacant,

that's vacant. Yeah, we got an

entertainment, you know, thing that they

kind of threw in here, which doesn't

look anywhere as nice or cool as a uh

Dave and Busters, and it's dead. In

fairness, it's a Wednesday evening, but

you kind of go through some of this

other stuff, you're like, "Oh my gosh,

that store is vacant right there." You

walk down, it's like vacancy, vacancy,

vacancy, vacancy, and you're just like,

"Bro, what's going on?" I mean, it's no

surprise malls are dead. Amazonification

or whatever. But I'm like, "Hey, on your

earnings report," this was another angle

from upstairs. On your earnings report,

Mac, you guys are like, "Oh, yeah, we're

94% occupied." And I'm going through and

I'm like, "No, you're not." you know,

and I'm like, I don't know, may maybe

maybe the average everywhere else is

that you're 100% occupied everywhere

else. So, I go through the earnings call

and it turns out this business is

actually selling off their assets with

the lowest vacancy. So, this particular

mall was included in their earnings call

as, oh yeah, we're really grateful we're

uh disposing of the following assets.

And they go on to list a bunch of malls

throughout the country. And I'm like,

wow, that's how you guys are doing it.

you guys are paying off debt by dumping

your crappy malls and letting other

people try to pick them up and flip

them. And now I'm looking at the people

who are trying to flip it, who've owned

it for, you know, a few months now. And

I'm like, well,

this ain't going well. You know, you may

have you may have thought you were

getting a good deal. You may have just

bought the bag. But point is like there

is true weakness in the consumer. And

this is why everybody talks about the

K-shaped recovery, right? And the

question is like where does this put us

in the cycle? And this is the part that

makes me nervous because look at this.

This is the part that doesn't get the

headlines. Y'all know AMD just reported

earnings and right after earnings, the

stock was down like 4.7% in the after

hours. It was nuts. Now, so far in the

overnight, it's recovering and hopefully

it continues to recover tomorrow. But

the question is, is it a good buy at

these prices? And this is where what I

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what I love. Number one, I'm going to

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Nvidia gets like 88% from data centers.

So I want to see that data center

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you use my code meet Kevin. This is the

part that doesn't get the headlines

right here. Not only did individual

companies announce large layoffs in

October, but a higher number of

companies announced job cut plans. This

is actually a red flag that is not going

to get the headlines. Job cut plans are

basically like, hey, yeah, like we

haven't announced uh the job cuts yet,

the layoffs, but we're going to. And

Challenger tracks this as well and they

found that there were nearly 450 job cut

plans at companies. That's up from 400

in September and it is the next highest

level since March which saw 350

individual job cut plans. The total for

the month was was the highest you know

since 2003 which is more than 20 years.

But October itself had the highest total

single month in the fourth quarter. So

this is specifically referring to the

fourth quarter since 2008.

So think about this alignment here.

Okay. Worst total job cuts for October

since 2003.

That's this chart right here. Okay. Ding

number one. Ding number two. worst

fourth quarter since 2008.

And remember, we had even worse

unemployment in 2009 after Lehman

Brothers collapsed, which is concerning.

Uh, and then see, they even say here

over the last decades, companies have

shied away from announcing layoffs in

the fourth quarter. So, it's surprising

to see so many in October. But it's not

just surprising to see so many in

October. It's also surprising to see now

the highest level of announcement plans

since basically liberation day tariff

panic and we're talking about a lot more

450 companies to announce layoffs is a

28% increase in layoffs to come since

March. So these numbers are bad.

technology 33,000. Retail, you know,

retail, not a surprise that you're not

seeing as many job cuts here yet. 2,400

down a little bit from the prior month.

So far, though, we're still high on

retail layoffs for the total for the

year. Uh services sector didn't see that

many in October. It's actually

warehousing that really drove a lot of

numbers in October which suggests quote

an ongoing overcapacity and

automationdriven restructuring. Okay, so

I'm going to give you a play but at this

point I think this play is getting a

little expensive but I think robotics

okay we've been talking about this in

the course member livereams. Symbotic we

know this is a play we've been playing

since 20 bucks. It's absolutely been

killing it. $4. This is forklift

robotics for factories like actual

warehouse automation. There are other

opportunities that you can get into in

robotics but look at that robotics

supply chain. Uh Pterodine is an example

of a company uh and there are plenty of

other companies uh that are involved in

robotics. But look at that robotic

supply chain. Talk to your AI about the

robotic supply chain. Uh it's it's

really impressive I think what

opportunities are out there. Uh and and

then you know the cues were absolutely

phenomenal yesterday. We did have a

little bit of a sell down into the

close, but I have to say it was crazy

crazy that we went from 618 to within 40

cents of my price target intraday

yesterday, which is exactly what we

called in the alpha report yesterday,

which was remarkable. If you haven't

joined that yet, go check that out over

at me.com. But, you know, how do we

reconcile this with what Nick T tells

us? Because this is obviously very

frustrating. And the ADP report, well,

the ADP report was good, right? Yes, it

was an above break even ADP report. But

then again, break evens should be

including government employment and we

don't have the numbers for government

employment because the Bureau of Labor

Statistics is shut. So, are we getting

potentially a poor sample of the labor

market? Yeah. Now, I'm not trying to

cast shade on the ADP report. I think

it's one of the best sets of data that

we have right now. At least it gives us

some direction. But Nick Tampers

some of the enthusiasm around the ADP

report by using the three-month average

with the 42,000 jobs growth in October

followed by two months of negative. The

3month average private sector payroll

growth would have been negative if it

weren't for the report that we got this

week from ADP. This is of course where

some people say, "Oh, well, you know,

this is obviously, you know, Donald

Trump's influence. There's some, you

know, something shady going on here with

the numbers." Who knows? I mean, like,

you know what's sus is that the Federal

Reserve was getting the weekly payrolls

data and then all of a sudden Waller

talks about how we get this weekly

payrolls data that says things are a

little soft. And all of a sudden, and we

don't know this, but we think they may

have gotten a phone call from the Trump

administration going, "Why the hell are

you putting out information that says

the economy is doing bad?" Then all of a

sudden, they come out and go, "You know

what? We're going to stop giving that

data to the Fed." Two weeks later

they're like, "You know what? We're just

going to give that data to everybody."

And then all of a sudden, it's magically

good.

Like, I'm not trying to be jaded on the

data, but I do like and appreciate that

Nick T is giving us a three-month moving

average. And I think this this is a

reiteration. It's this is like and I

think this is just the easiest way to

reconcile it. If you go to meet me

Kevin.com, I have a bare bull scale. And

I think that this this is a nice way to

just sort of see like listen, you know,

if you're there 10 all in on margin,

everything's fine. Like there's no risk,

right? Uh one, you're bearish. Sell

everything. We're kind of mid-range

here. And the rationale is earnings are

good except for that lower consumer uh

discretionary and and you know foodbased

side of the economy which is

unfortunate. A lot of people are

suffering things are expensive. Uh on

the flip side earnings at corporations

are fantastic but at some point the

consumer's pain shows up in corporate

earnings. Of course, for now, we've got

AI propping us up, but now you've got

Open AI pseudo requesting a bailout from

the Trump administration. And I'm like,

what the hell is going on? So, it's

weird, man, that I will say we are in a

bizarro environment. And so, it's not a

surprise we're getting this noisiness.

And I think for now until this is why I

say it over and over and over again.

Okay, the government reopening is going

to be the next negative catalyst.

Between now and then I'm more bullish

catalyst, but once the government

reopens, I'm negative on reopening. Why?

Why would I be negative on reopening?

That's when we actually get that VLS

data and it might actually show us that

hey we thought we were at 40K for

private but if we now get two or three

months worth of jobs data all in sort of

one cluster it's going to be like merry

Christmas we're trending below break

even and if we're negative on that for a

new 3 months

it's not good you know so so the trend

is at the moment worsening

we'll see how markets react to it today.

Thank you so much for watching. I'm

going to go on vacation now.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.