mark this date!

hey everyone we kevin here so we finally

have a time frame for when we might hear

that jerome powell is getting replaced

from joe biden this is very big this is

very important and we have a time frame

for this now this is going to be

important for the stock market and

potentially real estate as well i'm

going to give a few updates first though

on some updates regarding and what's

happening in the marketplace and the

economy uh and then move into the

federal reserve so first walmart was

really a bellwether here and walmart i

don't think people were expecting

walmart to beat as well as they did with

high profit margins despite inflation

certainly margin pressures but still

sales doing really well retail sales up

this week industrial production up this

week rents housing confidence ev all the

indicators of growth in our economy are

actually booming right now i shouldn't

maybe say all indicators but a lot of

the indicators that we got this week

aside from the inflation numbers that we

got last week very very strong and sure

while we're seeing issues with inflation

and supply chain crises walmart's a

really good tell and they're seeing

supply chain issues and shipping issues

and constraints begin to ease we also

had an executive a former executive from

macy's mentioned that even though a lot

of individuals

pre-purchased a lot of things that they

were expecting to get shipped for the

holidays there are now expectations that

consumers might have spent money once in

september and october in preparation for

the holidays but now might be tempted to

spend again in november and december

because overall household wealth and

household savings are at elevated levels

and people are willing to spend people

feel good especially with the stock

market soaring which it's been doing

like crazy right now people feel even

richer and more likely to spend in my

opinion this is the perfect time to kind

of look inward and go how can i start

raising cash how can i spend less money

how can i be prepared for the next dip

opportunity because i personally don't

like chasing the market when it's going

up i spent six months buying the dip

during the crisis we had earlier in the

year but i have to say

in terms of the indicators that we've

gotten so far this week uh industrial

production retail sales consumer

confidence consumer spending the

earnings reports that we're seeing yeah

we're seeing lingering effects and in

some cases large effects of inflation

and supply chain issues but they're

really starting to get put by the

wayside and really the stock market is

starting to represent a more efficient

future for companies look at end phase

end phase going from 145 to 250 this is

one of my largest holdings that's nuts

it's insane but it's potentially because

people were bagging on end phase because

of supply chain issues now we're

starting to see them ease so the stocks

run it makes a lot of sense an end phase

very very high margin business now it's

got a nice multiple attached to it but

boy oh boy this is a profitable and sexy

energy play as well love end phase but

anyway uh it's worth noting that and

this hasn't happened yet but a lot of

economists are expecting that we might

actually be bumping q4 uh gdp figures uh

and estimates and and that these bumps

could actually further support the stock

market rallying uh so and we're seeing a

lot of euphoria right now which you

always want to have a little grain of

salt when you get a lot of euphoria uh

because uh that sort of euphoria can

definitely u-turn very quickly upon bad

news for example janet yellen today

mentioned that we are going to run out

of money between december 3rd and

december 15th if congress doesn't

essentially pass the debt ceiling again

and deal with the budget deficit again

uh so you've got two things expiring

again the debt ceiling's going to get

hit and we're uh going to end up

dealing with a government shutdown again

at the beginning of december if we don't

get another bill passed through congress

and now of course congress specifically

the house of representatives are

planning on passing a new well they

build back better plan they're still

working on the framework of this though

which is crazy because they've been

working on the framework for this on

this forever and they don't have that

much time left before in december we've

got 11 days until black friday which

remember that's when the courses linked

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posting different feedbacks so check

that out

but anyway uh folks the stock market is

rallying right now in confidence and uh

we're worried that there are things that

could derail it's like the debt ceiling

and the budget deficit these

negotiations although we probably won't

see those pressures until we actually

get into december maybe after the

thanksgiving and black friday holiday

and then we'll kind of also be nervous

about okay how good were sales and right

now we're expecting those sales to be

really really good now we could end up

seeing a buy the rumor sell the news

where people are buying the rumor on

sales being really good and we end up

having a sell-off after the black friday

and cyber monday holiday or cyber monday

week however

but

i think probably the big thing if

anything that is going to shake up the

market a little bit over the next four

days is

the potential announcement as to whether

or not drone power will be replaced or

not now if you look at predict it we've

got leo brainard having about a 35

chance of replacing jerome powell if you

look at uh betfair they have another

website on the betting odds her odds of

actually replacing drill power fell

substantially today but these websites

you can't really put a lot of money into

them uh they're they're smaller so some

some individuals say like ah you know

okay you get smaller bets in here that

kind of prevents certain whales from

coming in and making big bets or

outsized bets but overall it seems like

the market's pricing in a less than 50

percent chance that we're going to have

lyle brainard as a chairwoman of the

federal reserve uh and the market has i

think started rallying a little bit

since we first heard that jerome powell

could get replaced a few days well

probably last week

or roughly last week and the reason

we've seen a little bit of a rally from

what it was initially a little bit of a

panic the market turned right at the

beginning of last week because of

concern over jerome powell getting

replaced because of the uncertainty of

okay well what if we get somebody else

and and what if they start raising rates

and what if you know basically they end

the taper faster and they raise rates i

mean think about somebody like bullard

bullard's a hawk he wants to end the

taper in q1 and start raising rates in

q1 of 2022 to rein in inflation now i

did a full thesis yesterday on the

implosion of the federal reserve i

highly recommend you watch it because i

show two scenarios one scenario where

the federal reserve is entirely wrong

and they have to panic react and the

recession that could create and another

scenario where the federal reserve is

right

you should watch those so you can watch

for the signals that show you which path

we're on very very good video just type

into youtube meet kevin implosion of the

federal reserve but uh we now have a

time frame for when we're expecting to

hear whether or not a drone power is

going to get replaced and according to

joe biden an answer is expected within

the next four days which means by friday

we are expecting an answer on whether or

not jerome powell will be replaced now

the good news is the current expected

alternate to uh jerome powell would be

lyle brainerd brainerd if she ends up

getting the nomination

surprisingly the market is kind of okay

with it

so far we've got uh bloomberg analysts

we've got economists we've got barons a

lot of folks saying that lyle brainard

is is essentially just like jerome

powell we're not expecting much of a

difference at all and really we

shouldn't expect much of a market hit if

anything she might even be slightly more

dovish than jerome powell which means

more cheap money for longer she also

believes in the strength of the economy

but doesn't quite believe that we're at

full employment yet and believes that we

still need to be supportive of the

economy because the last thing we want

to do is end up taking away support and

then all of a sudden when temporary

inflation goes away their version of

temporary inflation this is their

version okay if their version of

temporary inflation goes away because

supply chain constraints evaporate which

we've kind of already started seeing

happen started happen still problems but

started happening with walmart and other

companies then then then then the last

thing the fed wants to do is pull the

rug out on a market that's in an economy

that's actually weakening because prices

are starting to go down we're starting

to see the potential for deflation right

so uh they don't want that to happen

so deflation deflation gets bad because

then you get deflationary spirals where

basically people stop spending money

because they're they're worried that

well why would i spend money now it's

like the opposite of what happens with

inflation right if you're worried about

deflation then you're thinking well

prices are going to be less in the

future so i'll just save my money and

not spend well if you don't spend the

velocity of money falls and economic

growth our economic engine falls

substantially every dollar you don't

spend is five dollars that aren't

circulating around in the economy which

is bad

the government and the federal reserve

want people spending money this is why

we started this video out with yay

consumers are spending now i don't think

it's a good idea to spend that much

money but hey

i'm not in control of all consumers so

they want to spend money like crazy hey

go for it whatever so we should know

within the next four days

uh keep in mind again uh if you have

inflation you also tend to see people

per moving up their purchases which is

kind of what the executive uh the former

executive for macy's was saying on cnbc

earlier today he's suggesting that hey

look you know people expect inflation so

they buy stuff earlier because they

think prices are going to be higher in

the future and then that future point

comes around and they say like well i've

already bought so i don't need to buy

again that's what they say but the

reality is they end up spending twice

they buy both times which is uh kind of

crazy but also really good for stocks

and uh and people buying stuff so uh

overall this is very bullish i'm not

nervous about the federal reserve pick

anymore uh and this is mostly because of

the research that i put together in

yesterday's video uh but also now this

time frame i'm not very worried about it

i actually think once this announcement

comes it'll kind of be a sigh of relief

like from the markets and if anything we

could actually push higher i think

probably the biggest negative catalyst

would be

terrible misses for uh black friday and

cyber monday sales that that would be

very bad we tend to get that data very

quickly and then some form of a

congressional disaster at the beginning

of disaster beginning of december

because of uh the

debt ceiling and uh budget crisis and

potentially a government shutdown those

periods of uncertainties are great times

to buy the dip it's it's like it always

gets solved it's so stupid and even if

it doesn't just buy the div it's like oh

best time to buy so i'd rather wait for

that and kind of hope for a little bit

of panic so that way i can uh by the dip

because right now this very little dip

with the exception of certain companies

that have just unfortunately uh been

been casted aside as as not very sexy in

the market and and i think this really

has to do with what a thesis that i came

up with

a few days ago and this is just a total

thesis this does not mean it's right at

all but the thesis i came up with is the

concentration of stocks and the thesis

kind is easily more easily visually

represented and this is in my opinion

what the stock market looked like in uh

2010 maybe when i started investing and

in 2010 you you had sort of very very

dispersed investments uh but because of

social media i feel like you're getting

and this sort of momentum movement

you're getting a lot more of a

concentrated market and i think that's

why you get these incredible moves of

traders blowing up and and

ridiculously moving valuations for

companies like

lucid and rivian when they should by no

means be that high that they're that

high because they're going up and when

stocks are going up obviously people can

buy more which is

very stupid because uh it ultimately

means you're increasing your risk right

the the the higher you go the harder you

fall right the more you go up the more

potential energy you have to crash which

turns into kinetic as you start

deflecting down we see that all the time

with momentum movers so just be very

very careful uh concentrating and buying

as things are running running running

this is why i like buying the dip

finding support levels and buying safely

and if you want more of my kind of

insights and thoughts and theses do

check out the stocks and psychology

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black friday and folks we'll see in the

next one thanks so much for watching

this video and we'll see you goodbye

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