Nvidia is Flipping | Nvidia Earnings Breakdown.

all right let's talk about Nvidia look

the expectations for NVIDIA here were

basically

unbeatable the expectations were some of

the most insane that I have ever seen so

going into Nvidia earnings is just

really important for you to know what Mr

Market actually thought take a look at

this x poost I made at my account at

real me Kevin Nvidia guided $28 billion

of Revenue and everyone is expecting a

14% overg guu beat per Goldman and that

would lead to a

15% stock move a

28% beat would keep this company break

even and you can actually see that a

little bit more in detail right here in

terms of guidance and expectations for

their beat so you really needed to beat

by

28% just to break even on this puppy uh

well good news their numbers came in at

$35.1 billion over 28 which was what

they originally guided which is actually

a beat of

25.3% so they got pretty close to these

crazy lofty expectations but if you're

wondering why a company could make that

much money and yet still somehow be

somewhat flat after beating by that much

it's because markets were expecting it

markets were demanding it I think I

should say is the better way to to go

about it the expectations are insane

and they are kind of insane going

forward as well one of the ways that you

could really visualize how kooky some of

these numbers are is just by lining up

the expectations of Prior quarters uh

and then how much Nvidia actually ended

up beating by in those quarters uh so an

easy way to do that is just look at

their press release from the last few

quarters and I already did that work for

you you can see that right here in Q4

which they're about two quars ahead with

their fiscal calendar here so Q4 is

technically like calendar Q2 for us but

uh they had a $22 billion of Revenue and

guided for 24 they ended up guiding a 9%

beat but they ended up coming in with 26

so they have a history of beating their

expectations here or their guidance then

they guided for 28 which was a guide of

7.7% of of you know a beat so they they

went from Guiding 9% beat to guiding a

7.7% beat now they beat by

25% which is really really good but

they're only guiding by 6.8% for the

next quarter and this is where a lot of

folks are sort of scratching their head

going oh no you know have we sort of

peaked out on on growth and of course

this has always been a concern with

Nvidia that at some point when Facebook

Google Microsoft Amazon and X you know L

mus X and Tesla stop buying Nvidia chips

and they're built out who is going to

buy the next chips and one of the things

that led to some additional nervousness

was that Jensen started talking up those

other opportunities which made people

start thinking uhoh is the peak in of

some of that growth take a look at this

when you jump

into here you could see Jensen he talks

about this in the earnings call as well

he really gets into focusing on

Industrial

Robotics and one of the things I've been

talking about over the past uh couple

weeks now is they've been talking about

how robots are going to be the next

phase of the recession that is when

companies end up laying people off in

the next recession they're more likely

to hire robots than people for certain

tasks more so than ever before because

robots are not an EPS expense robots are

an asset that you then depreciate so you

actually have a lower expense which is

good for your earnings so from a tax

point of view buying a robot is a way

better idea than buying basically human

labor back which is really bad for the

next recession it will extend the next

recession and worsen it but it'll make

it pretty good for robots and I think

one of the reasons Jensen is talking

robots is because yes robots are the

next phase and they're really the next

phase of growth for uh chips right

trying to not just train now llms which

are basically becoming a commodity I

mean China's got really good llms now as

well uh but what happens is you've got

to move to the next phase of growth

which could be okay how do we train

robots to basically get to llm Quality

in terms of their Vision their ability

to walk around and move and do things

that's maybe the next growth and so this

is then where the questions come okay

but is that growth going to be with

Nvidia or are people going to make their

own chips by just calling up tsmc

directly and so because of that

uncertainty there's a little bit of an

asterisk that once we move away from

Blackwell we don't know if Nvidia is

that next big thing that is going to

keep doing robots for us I personally

think a lot of the public companies that

that are available to invest in now are

exceptionally expensive for investing in

robotics that's why right now we're

going through due diligence on a robotic

startup as well as some other uh nuclear

Robotics and space related compan

companies that we want to potentially

invest in uh as a venture capital style

investment so I'm thinking about making

an investment uh into what we're doing

due diligence on and we might be able to

open that up to about 99 other people

not our rules it's it's an SEC rule we

might be able to open up that to to 99

other people so make sure to subscribe

and stay tuned for that we'll have like

a little application or something if we

do that uh and then you could join us

but uh this is really interesting

because when you think about robotic

startups

we might be pretty early on that phase

so when Jensen was asked about okay well

well what about Blackwell because that's

where the money is now honey when is

Blackwell going to sell more Blackwell

than you know when's the viia going to

sell more Blackwell than uh we're going

to sell Grace Hoppers and uh Jensen

punted on that question and basically

just talked about how Blackwell

production is in Full Steam and how

wonderful everything is with Blackwell

how it's such great Hardware uh and then

gets into talking about how there are

thousands of AI startups coming and

they're going to increase demand and

people are like come on man it's not the

thousands of AI startups that are going

to spend money on these $30,000 chips

that have onear reviews on amaz oh wait

sorry that uh one star review on Amazon

uh is only because uh the price here is

$288,000 for an h100 which is about

$6,000 lower than what they were a while

ago I'm seeing this on other websites as

well not just Amazon there's only one

available but if you go to the review

that actually is a a GPU this expensive

should run crisis but it

doesn't oh that's a pretty big burn on

crisis uh obviously a joke of a review

but this idea that there are going to be

thousands of AI startups coming what

you're really doing is you're Shifting

the the desire for demand from massive

companies with endless cash like Mark

Zuck and and you know goog and and

you're saying yes all the broke startups

they will have demand for

Blackwell no they probably won't so it's

possible this AI enthusiasm in Nvidia

might start shifting more towards what

we've seen with paler style companies

and therefore those service companies

that are actually implementing real AI

growth look for example at snowflake

snowflakes up about 20% in the

pre-market because they beat guide by

amily 2% but people are like just they

it's like looking for they're like a

shark in water looking for growth and

they're

like two two 2% growth yes and jump run

on over you know over to uh snowflake uh

now don't get me wrong Nvidia is still

growing and that's the crazy thing like

they're still guiding 6.8% of growth for

the next

quarter but the market is so baking in

that this growth is going to keep going

and going and going that any slight hint

of a Slowdown is what keeps a lid on the

stock price consider this for a moment

you've got uh let's see here where was

it you've got uh guidance on margin

margin guide at 73 to

73.5% that's down from about those mid

70s and they're talking about how

Blackwell is costing a little bit more

to kind of get to Market and therefore

margin's going to get hit a little bit

and so now people are starting to

question the price ing power of the

company wait what you can't raise the

price and offset the slightly higher

cost of bringing black weld to Market is

it because of the overheating issues to

which of course Jensen as expected

shouts out his Partners In this case

though he didn't just shout out super

micro computer he literally shouted

out SK HX Verve Micron spill amcore kyc

foxcon super micro Lenovo gu

Dell he basically shouted out everyone

so so no no specific pump thereof is

brothers so to speak but uh look you you

can't you can't blame this company they

have an amazing product they make an

insane amount of money uh and the the

actual balance sheet is phenomenal $38

billion of cash 7 and a half of of

inventory yes accounts receivable so a

lot of people are bagging on this

accounts receivables roughly not quite

doubled but almost doubled here which

does make you wonder like are your

customers

paying you know they don't show down

doubtful accounts here but you know

we've got current liabilities that are

half of what their cash position is so I

really don't think we have a balance

sheet issue here and the cash flow from

operating activities is just insane

$17.6

billion they're throwing into plant

property and Equipment basically nothing

less than a billion dollars because

frankly they they just design the chips

they don't manufacture the chips right

this is a big deal because it does mean

that other companies can manufacture the

chips too like apple you know hey we're

not going to use your chips we're going

to design our own with tsmc or Tesla hey

thanks Nidia we used you for a while now

we're going to make our own this this is

very common the big boys eventually do

that you know tensor core processors are

available at Google they have their own

you've got uh Amazon has its own chips I

mean you get it it's not to say that

Blackwell is bad it's not to say that

Nvidia is bad it's just to say that

honestly Mr Market is loony with its

expectations and unfortunately that's uh

just going to make it harder to kind of

hit those those High thresholds if the

uh actual growth continues at Nvidia

though a realistic price to earnings

growth ratio puts this stock at closer

to $200 the issue is you really have to

sustain that growth and as soon as there

are growth concerns or pricing power

concerns which we're seeing here with

margin or punting the question about

when Blackwell is going to outsell h100s

and this talk about shifting to Robotics

and this talk about shifting to

thousands of other AI startups all of

those four things together put a little

bit of a

[Music]

h I hear the melody in what you're

singing and it's not what I

like Mr Market is kind of cooky Okay so

there you go fantastic company Market

expectations are ridiculous and

ludicrous uh but

honestly what can you do it is what it

is and in the meantime markets will be

euphoric about software plays and

obviously micro strategy but hey there

are winners there are losers and then

there's black coffee enjoy oh by the way

if you want my Alpha report every

morning make sure you go to

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I'll give you some guides on where I

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more information on Catalyst to pay

attention to for the day or going

forward just a really easy kind of cheat

sheet for your day obviously can't

guarantee that everything's going to be

perfect but I'm just going to guarantee

you that I will give you my best effort

thank you so much and we'll see you in

the next one goodbye and good luck why

not advertise these things that you told

us here I feel like nobody else knows

about this well a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take