omg this report

coupon code is expiring Friday but GDP

data is coming out oh yes two percent

versus the 1.4 let's go American economy

again let's go that could end up pushing

uh some fed pressure again there to

continue uh you know with those hikes

but let's go JDP annualized quarter over

quarter coming in hot baby hot hot at uh

two percent expectation was 1.4 personal

consumption B 4.2 expected 3.8 GDP price

it is let's go it comes in week 4.1

versus

4.2 let's go core pce comes in Weak also

4.9 expectation was five this is great

because now you've got a hot GDP and

even weaker GDP price data that's

awesome

that's really really good that's

absolutely fantastic let's see uh what

what I love this guy let's see what he

has to say about it I want his reaction

one is not the lowest though 3.9 was the

lowest after the nine percent read which

was the highest in 81. that was in Q2 of

22. so progress being made but obviously

slow progress if you look at the core

personal consumption expenditure quarter

over quarter that's 4.9 percent that's

one tenth less than the five percent we

were expecting and how does that pan up

to history well second quarter of 21 not

22 is a high water mark that was at six

percent the highest since 83 the lowest

it's been was the fourth quarter last

year at 4.4 and now 4.9 percent so we

see that this is also very sticky as a

matter of fact we've had several numbers

he's such a bear he's such a bear oh it

comes in soft oh but it's still sticky

the survey was for it to be sticky oh uh

jobless claims just came in uh 239 for

oh my gosh these are good numbers too

what the heck it's so good 239 for

initial jobless claims the expectation

was 265. that's a big Miss uh stable on

the revisions and then for continuing

claims a miss again

1.742 we were expecting 1.765 it was a

23 000 miss this is amazing

so you mean to tell me this is supposed

to be bearish like listen Okay people

are so worried about recession and

earnings recession and you're getting

him in here and be like book inflation's

still sticky suck it if GDP is doing

great inflation is trending down we're

potentially not going to see a recession

knock on wood uh we're not seeing this

unemployment surge this economy is just

barreling through uh and and forward and

so okay inflation's gonna take some time

to get down what did j-pow tell us he

literally told us our expectation is

inflation doesn't return to two percent

until 2025.

bro straight up said it's gonna take two

years to get inflation down from today

which means like three years total three

and a quarter years total to get

inflation back down that's crazy

and what we're worried about another 25

or 50 basis points of hikes

you know there was a fantastic piece I

read the other day I can't remember who

put it together I don't think it was

Goldman

uh I can't remember who it was but

anyway it was a fantastic piece they

talked about uh here I'm gonna draw it

for you I don't know if you know what

this is if you're a math person you know

what this is ready for this that's what

they talked about

what does that mean you should be

screaming that at the top of your lungs

right now Kevin that is a triangle

no it's actually Delta so Delta is the

change and what's the Delta of rates

that we've had over the last year

500 basis points what's the Delta the

change of rates that we're expecting

over uh the next six months like

50 bips

almost worst case like really

really over the last year we had 500

bips of of rate hikes

and now people are bitching about but

what if the FED does another 25 or 50

bro look at the Delta it's literally one

tenth as painful as what you had in the

2022 year

one tenth as bad

it was actually a great piece I I wish I

remembered where I found it but it was a

really great argument it's like how

could you be bearish about raid ice who

cares it's just a slightly bit higher

yes yes there are still bearish

arguments Kevin what about the lag

defects okay what about

um you know the potential earnings

recession well we

unfortunately data is just not lining up

with that idea but we'll see maybe Q2

earnings will suck and you know what if

you're worried about Q2 earnings sucking

go buy yourself some Hedges I mean look

at how low volatility is right now uh

here look at the vix

look at the chart of the vix it

literally broke my downtrend it's so low

I have to go out to the week chart

because it's such it's been such a such

weak paper hands over here look at that

there's my downtrend that I had

it broke that so now I'm gonna have to

draw a new trend because there's no

volatility

it's just been straight up basically

I guess you could call it a channel to

some extent uh but it's it's kissing the

bottom this is crazy I mean really this

should be starting to convert converge

down over here better off probably using

a moving average uh but the point is

this is not this is not a market that

seems horribly uh scary in terms of uh

volatility so go ahead buy your puts and

buy your Hedges uh and in low Vol

environments it's probably not great to

sell options but it depends on the

individual security you're trying to

hedge because they'll all have their own

volatilities especially going into

earnings

but uh point is this is fantastic I mean

this is almost as good as the delicious

juicy lectures that are coming out for

free over the weekend for existing

course members with that awesome coupon

expiration tomorrow at uh at uh 11 59 PM

next coupon will expire it's gonna be a

big one uh for a moment there where

you're thinking about doing four phases

of price increase we're getting rid of

all that basically that was just an

excuse for me to give the lectures up

slower and I'm like no I got real work

to do we got a lot of work to do we're

getting these lectures up this weekend

and uh so we're just gonna raise the

price uh in total large price increase

tomorrow night

so anyway put put the pieces of the

puzzle together here on if the

unemployment data isn't coming in as bad

as expected and the GDP data is coming

in strong and the price data is coming

in weak

isn't that literally the perfect case

scenario I mean some people will call it

the uh Goldilocks uh environment and

yeah that doesn't mean we don't want to

be careful and prudent but

I think we could share it so let's look

at some of the actual data

so what do we have here real gross

domestic product increased an annual

rate of two percent in the first quarter

of 2023 according to the third estimate

released by The Bea in the fourth

quarter real GDP increased by 2.6

fantastic the GDP estimate released

today is based on more a complete source

of data than were available for the

second estimate issued last month the

second estimate was 1.3 percent and

we're revising that uply primarily to

reflect revisions to exports and

consumer spending that were partly

offset by downward revisions in

non-residential fixed investment and

federal government spending so

non-residential fixed investment think

that's such a fancy word think about it

like

Giga press okay when Elon buys a sexy

oh sorry that's like an airlock sound

because I watched passenger yesterday

first time ever watching passenger

Lauren and I watched it together

damn if you haven't watched that movie

yet you gotta watch it it's fantastic

anyway

so the increase in uh hashtag not

sponsored the increase in Real GDP in

the first quarter reflected increases in

consumer spending

uh okay I swear that said Esports but it

actually says exports uh stay in the

local government spending federal

government spending non-resident

whatever okay so uh there's a pretty

chart compared to the fourth quarter the

deceleration in Real GDP in the first

quarter was primarily reflected uh

primarily reflected a downturn in

private inventory investment

and a slowing of non-residential fixed

fine

offset by an acceleration of consumer

spending fantastic personal income

increased in the first quarter

up from the previous estimates

great disposable income increased 12.9

in the first quarter an upward revision

of 26.4 Billy from the previous personal

savings were revised up the personal

savings rate oh my God

oh my gosh

what

the personal savings rate as a

percentage of disposable income was 4.3

percent

up from 0.1

[Laughter]

wow that's remarkable

wow

okay just a heads up why I'm remarking

about that

is because this felt like 2.4 percent

for a while in 2022 and it's starting to

Skyrocket again this disposable income

this is fantastic

all right

let's see here

so real domestic Real gross domestic

income

it's just total uh for business and and

individuals uh decreased 1.8 percent in

the first quarter upward version of

an upward revision

of 0.5 percentage points

from the previous estimate all right

whatever profits updates to GDP

GDP by industry

all right let's see what we have over

here q1

government see look at that government

pop in 2022 Q2 and three government was

pretty low government popped over here

and then private Goods in q1 was

actually negative a negative contributor

wow

okay what do we have here

contributions to percent change in Real

GDP by Industry Group

okay so these are contributions on the

right or positive on the left is

negative

finance and insurance is the most

negative followed by

manufacturing and wholesale trade and

utilities

the best was actually retail trade so

y'all go into the mall and buying stuff

Healthcare

agricultural forestry and hunting

uh and fishing real estate rental and

leasing accommodation travel arts and

entertainment all the fun stuff is up

there I want to go fishing again

it's been a while

I don't know Bears what do you have to

say this time

it's just it just

like

if you're mayor it's okay we can still

be friends we could still you know drink

water together at the bar

um

or or you know coffee at the coffee shop

right so um

but this is crazy

like all of us should be looking at this

going this is a blowout this data is a

blowout

expected one four we got 2.0 on on GDP

and then price is coming remember like

what was it 10 minutes ago or whatever

or I think it was at the beginning of

the live stream I'm like

okay

the best we could hope for is a GDP beat

and a miss on inflation

but you know

the world can't be perfect

let's just hope for the best

and that's literally what we got

where's the button gain the lead

yeah

now I want you to know this when it

comes to AI time is what's going to make

you money and if you can prove that

value to an employer you'll always be

able to be employed so this is another

way of making sure that you don't get

replaced but

foreign