wtf just happened... a critical warning for 2024

ready for a high detailed video

including stock picks the potential for

recession coming and catalysts as well

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let's get into the update what the heck

happened yesterday and we've got a lot

to talk about in this video from

Catalyst coming up my stock picks for

2024 I'm going to break those down in

this video recession coming as predicted

by manufacturing and I'll also explain

not just what happened in the stock

market yesterday but quite frankly where

the heck was Kevin yesterday yeah yeah I

know yesterday it's like went back to

doing Market open live streams and for

the first time since we've come back I

didn't do one yesterday I posted a

little head zom that I wasn't going to

and I apologize for that I feel bad

about that here's what happened to me

really quickly and end of the year audit

prep okay we get audited not taxwise

it's like for house hack having a

startup when you raise money and I got

to get everything perfect I was up to

like 3:00 or 4 in the morning and then I

decided okay I could get an hour or two

asleep and ruin the day or I could

unfortunately not do uh the live streams

and spend some awesome time with Mr Max

which I was so fortunate to be able to

do uh I did take that day to spend time

with family so I apologize for not being

there now we'll talk about what happened

in the stock market as well I'll also

explain why I was in Utah in the first

place it wasn't actually to go skiing it

was actually to meet a seller of a $16

million deal deal not necessarily

actually in Utah uh but I went there

because uh we were uh negotiating a deal

and I wanted to close the deal so I

decided you know what easiest way to

close the deal in my opinion is with

somebody in person I love closing deals

this is by the way Max learning how to

ski and then Max being dead after skiing

he was so tired but anyway yeah I like

I'm a big person-to person believer

we've got a ton of great interviews

lined up for the channel in 2024 2024 is

going to be sick we have such great

Foundation set but this is just advice

for everybody if you're having trouble

closing a deal be you know and and

you're frustrated somebody doesn't

understand a POV or what's going on

sometimes it's a matter of meeting

people in person so you could understand

the emotion the s sincerity and the

reactions you're getting from things

you're saying it's really amazing if

you're in person with somebody and you

say something you might not realize on

the phone or text or email certainly not

in those last few that something you're

saying actually rubs them the wrong way

whereas when you're in person you could

figure out why somebody feels a certain

way and structure a deal so house I got

a $16 million deal that we think we got

for like $2 or $3 million below value

sick deal multif family by the way

all the details over at hous Haack

homes.com the house Haack YouTube

channel if you want to see it because I

was able to drop everything and fly over

there the next day and finalized the

deal and we're at negotiations I'm like

tired of this back and forth I'm like

hey can I just talk to the seller

directly and the agent's like yeah this

is abnormal but sure how do you want to

do it I'll meet them where are they done

I'm there it's powerful anyway so uh

again those updates over at the house

hack uh homes YouTube channel I'll link

it down below in the uh top of the

description so that's why I wasn't there

yesterday so uh I had to negotiate a

deal then I had to do a ton of auditing

work uh some of the staff's out of the

office and then I thought do I want to

be dead tired for helping Max learn how

to ski or do I want to take the holidays

here and spend some time with Max and

Jack that's what I decided to do so

longer explanation but a little bit of

an update it sets for Good Foundations

for 2024 okay so what happened in the

stock market though yesterday while I

was gone well my take two things happen

number one we didn't get the breakouts

okay we we actually had like failed

breakouts in fact Tesla is the perfect

example of a failed breakout that we had

here I mentioned in the Thursday Market

open live stream that we really need a

full Candlestick above 258 to be able to

confirm a breakout on Tesla the second

it became apparent we weren't going to

get a full Candlestick above 258 this

sucker dropped I mean it went straight

to 248 not a surprise see when we closed

at 263 or whatever on the average

candlesticks you could see that's like a

tiny little nub above that critical

threshold right there that's not good

enough for confirmation you can't rely

on the one minute candlesticks to assume

that you've got confirmation so of

course when that died that was over for

Tesla you could see that pain see how we

were briefly over here in that 260s boom

once we failed we broke right through

very very critical intersection here now

not only did we have failed breakouts at

things like Tesla or Nvidia trying to

get over 500 couldn't pull it off or uh

Apple to get over 200 not only are we

having these failed

breakouts but as the breakouts are

failing guess what happens two things

number one institutions start going you

know what it's time to take some profits

because guess what folks and this is the

misalignment of a lot of the

mainstream Finance World they don't

really care about necessarily what's

100% best for everybody they want their

bonuses and that's okay it's just the

way the system structured anybody who's

watching who getting a bonus on trading

performance at the end of the year good

for you like that's the system it is but

let's be real if you got tendies on

Tesla going into the end of year because

of some of the positioning you did in

2023 you want to realize those going

into the end of the year so that way

when the January review comes in and the

boss comes in and goes all right how was

everyone's performance and how does that

performance compare to the benchmarks

you know like the S&P 500 well then you

get more of a bonus if you took some

profits if you lose all your gains going

to the end of the year like the last two

days well your profits go your your uh

your profits go down which means your

bonus goes down so there's a lot of that

but there's also bragging rights when

you're a fund manager you want to be

able to brag oh yeah we beat those ETFs

and we beat that Benchmark and we B beat

this and that what like I run an

actively manage ETF I get it I

personally just don't care because I run

an ETF for me and I think in the future

everybody should be able to have their

own ETF because the crazy tax benefits

of an ETF it's like 1031 exchanging

stocks bro imagine if you're a Trader

and you could do that how sick that

would be maybe one day but anyway even

if you're a long run investor just be

freaking amazing to be able to 1031

stocks be crazy so anyway uh that's one

reason so failed Breakout and then this

institutional profit taking to increase

uh likely performance-based pay at the

end of the year and bragging rights for

institutionalsales

as much since 2023 was obviously a very

good deal year so uh what else well now

we've got to understand okay well what's

next what about Catalyst I mean that's

what happened at the end of the trading

uh days here but what about Catalyst

going forward and what about my stock

picks going forward we're going to hit

my stock picks in just a moment but I I

just want to remind you about some of

these uh catalysts which I'm telling you

I love eack so much ew.com because I

could I literally just I went just as

I'm filming this video live I just went

uh private browser popped on over to

ec.com scroll down to my uh Catalyst and

look oh there it is and I can just

reference it every day it's going to be

a busy week you know on the third once

we kind of all really actually get

settled back into the office we're going

to get jolts we're going to get fomc

we're going to get ISM prices paid okay

Institute for supply side management uh

ADP report jobs report the next week we

get CPI core month over month all the

CPI numbers Come Those are going to be

pretty big catalysts but another thing

for you to keep in mind uh is what about

the whole recessionary fear so I wrote a

bunch over here on eack about uh what's

going on with uh some commentary from

HSBC uh what's going on in Europe but

one of the big ones that I want to pay

attention to is I keep hearing people

talk about this fear this fear this

uncertainty this doubt that we're going

to go into a recession because

manufacturing is down and so what I

decided to do was okay well let's go

into history and see how many recessions

have actually been driven by a

manufacturing recession and the reason I

want to do that is I want to see is it

manufacturing that fails first or is

manufacturing reacting to a weak economy

right so in other words if we have weak

manufacturing numbers now does that mean

we're going into a recession or is it a

sign of some other stress right so here

is a summary of recessions going all the

way back to 1937 you ready for this 1937

recession was caused by fiscal debt like

a lack of fiscal debt uh growth so in

other words the government actually

being a little bit more responsible with

its spending and fighting inflation so

so what causes it a recession then the

government and the FED keep in mind what

you have today you have the FED priming

to lower rates and support the economy

and the government never stopped

spending money if anything during this

last cycle they are why we didn't go

into a recession like and this is not to

be political I'm just saying when you

just spend money like crazy on the

inflation reduction act the chips act uh

you know whatever uh I mean many of the

other uh policies that were implemented

as well and loose interpretations of

laws that were passed this spending is

supportive of GDP we know that okay so

what else uh oh so when you undo that

you might have a recession right uh 1945

massive Cuts in government spending yep

massive Cuts in government spending not

good that could drive you in recession

again opposite today and I'm not here to

say this time is different I'm here to

tell you when are things the same and

when do they rhyme and when are they

just straight up the opposite right uh

1948 post-war inflation due to penup

savings and demand uh lead to an

inflation blowout going from 3.3% to

11.6% boy that sounds familiar I wrote

mild recession after policy makers

responded

late that that uh that also sounds

somewhat familiar responding late right

uh okay worth noting then you've got

wind down of government spending

remember today we're actually seeing an

uptick in government spending exact ex

ly and debt expansion 1957 recession fed

induced tightening

1960 uh us diminished demand due to

globalization basically we're going to

buy the Chinese stuff as opposed to the

American stuff uh 1969 debt inflation

fed 73 oil embargo inflation fed 80 fed

in inflation 82 fed in inflation 90 oil

price shock inflation 01 dotom bubble

2017 real estate bubble 2020 Co so what

I wrote is based on

history none of these are driven by

manufacturing none of them not a single

one of them was led by manufacturing the

point of that is yes manufacturing

responds to higher interest rates to a

weaker economy a uh a level of growth

that is slowing yes manufacturing

responds to that but did that cause a

recession no it was always something

else fighting inflation the FED being

too tight the government cutting

spending now is the government cutting

spending or expected to cut spending in

2024 no is the Fed uh expected to loosen

in 2024 yes is it possible they don't

loosen enough fast enough and we still

have an overtightening problem yes does

that mean there's still a risk of a

recession yes will it be driven by

manufacturing No in fact when I uh when

I was done negotiating on that $ 16

million deal for house hack uh which

remember go to the house Hack YouTube

channel learn more about that uh I I met

some JPM Bank aners and uh Traders

actually they like hey what's what's

your take on recession in 2024 and

they're like well 50% like oh it's

actually higher than I thought would you

think the fed's not going to cut like do

you think second wave of inflation no no

second wave of inflation just too much

damage basically already done so it's

definitely still there by the way if you

want to learn how I do all these deals

whether it's entrepreneurship it is

Building Wealth through real estate

Building Wealth through through stocks

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check that out obviously if you already

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uh go ahead and do that so okay uh

that's good to know in terms of

recession uh but what other problems do

we face well one that keeps coming up is

people are wor worried about this

Cleveland feds nowcast for inflation

which currently sits at 33% for core

month over month not great but what I

thought was really interesting is I just

typed nowcast into x uh Twitter

basically uh that's too wide of a

screenshot so let's do it like that and

look at this everybody's been freaking

out about nowcast for a while here's a

nowcast estimate somebody posted from

May 2023 I don't want to spoil the part

party but we've moved from a d like the

nowcast is estimating 43 basis points

which is an acceleration of core CPI you

know that was in May that didn't end up

happening Cleveland fed inflation uh

report this is the um uh April 11th

report oh no it might be 45 basis points

oh no uh here's another oh my nav kind

of covered that one oh there we go uh

here's another one uh core core CPI Now

cast 38 in this whole thing from sep

September 23rd complaining about the

nowcast then you've got uh here's

somebody using some of the nowcast data

you've got uh nowcast data here from and

that was they were using this in uh May

here's one in August talking about how

high nowcast inflation is oh could be a

messy CPI read coming up because the

nowcast is accelerating that one's from

July uh end of March Now cast sitting at

6 8% oh no checking the uh inflation Now

cast is not expecting the year-over-year

CPI figure to move higher at its next

reading whatever so the the point is

like or sorry now they wrote not but now

they meant to say now and that's 46 base

points that was January of

2023 uh so the the point is I get emails

like this okay and that's what motivated

us do you ever check the inflation

nowcast it has CPI coming at a 3 three

for December this is the highest that's

been in 3 months could this spook

markets blah blah blah blah blah blah uh

or you know whatever and and so I

actually really appreciated this person

sending me this email because it

motivated me to just search a little bit

at the history of the nowcast I'm

like all right I'm just not going to be

worried about it I'm going to wait until

the CPI report and then compare that 3

six and 12 month Trend to all of the

other CPI reports and incorporate the

fact that when we study earnings calls

every single day in the course member

live stream

there's no inflation left like it's

almost all

deflating again and I always say this

but I want to be clear with the

exception of ski resorts and Aviation

those two sectors have massive supply

issues there's not enough supply of ski

lifts you don't have enough quite

frankly you don't have enough snow right

now in America uh 2023 took it all well

early 2023 took it all you know it's

snow until like May or July how stupid

was

that uh and then uh and then with

Aviation oh my gosh after covid that AV

the aviation industry exploded uh

everybody wants a plane uh it's it's

crazy and uh anyway so um okay so now

what all right well so that's Now cast

now we've talked manufacturing

recessions now we've talked why we had a

little bit of a week end there so what

do we really have to worry about going

into

2024 well probably the FED not

responding quickly enough to weakening

jobs data I'm really concerned that jobs

data comes in too low and we end up

creating a self-fulfilling recession I

actually just put out an email uh for

for employ you know basically applicants

I'll actually give you the terms that I

put in it uh and I want to be clear

like I think I provide great benefits

for employees uh but I just ask that

people when they want to work for me

mostly almost everyone come work for me

in person cuz we got to work together

for startup I can't do this like remote

crap uh and you know it's it's almost

like getting paid to not work come on

man uh I know that's not true for

everybody but I don't know but anyway so

uh I put this post out I said send

resume anyone knows someone looking for

a

$250,000 a year software career with

benefits and eventual stock comp fintech

hoping to go from Tiny to multi-billion

Dollar valuation need one more AI helps

but we can teach it we're really looking

for a full stack Dev uh capable of you

know coding with react must be in person

and we'll even pay to to relocate you at

Ventura California uh you know people

hear it's funny people are like e

Ventura why would I ever move to

California California is a Cess poool I

don't know maybe Ventura is the best

kept secret one of them but uh venturo

were going awesome and the people who

move here they're like dude I didn't

know California was like Ventura

specifically or parts of California San

Diego uh Santa Barbara these aren't

Secrets right

mono uh

paloalto San Louis Obispo a lot of

people are like wow I did not know

California was this freaking amazing

there's a reason people pay the prices

to live here Orange County Irvine those

are other examples T La Vistas up there

in there maybe not up there but in there

anyway okay so uh I you know like we're

seeing applications for people and so

we're like this is great it either means

we're offering a very desirable position

or is there a chance maybe more people

need jobs now and there are less

available jobs I don't know we'll see

that with the jolts data and then

obviously the jobs data coming out this

week those are going to be very very

important data

sets I can't

understate how

ridiculously stupid it is to argue for

deflation if you want deflation you are

arguing for depression the FED knows

this and you now you might say but we're

definitely going to deflation great then

you know the FED is about to turn the

money printer on again now if you argue

well we're going to have a second wave

of inflation yeah that's possible then

we're screwed in terms of like

stagflation right because then the

economy sucks Jobs go to poops and then

you have inflation but literally every

time I ask somebody to show me where the

inflation is they can't do it they're

like well it's just my opinion that's

like the best response I get you know I

mean you already know this we do the

stock market open live streams every day

the Market's open 5 well with the

exception of yesterday uh 5:25 a.m. and

uh I do my best to provide value every

single day

there which is

awesome uh I hope you're there but

anyway uh

I I ask people on a daily basis please

show me the inflation it's not coming so

we look in company earnings calls

obviously more importantly but it's it's

pretty pretty wild uh okay so uh now

that's out of the way what else what

what else is there to talk about I mean

sure we hope to see some more inventory

in q1 to Q2 Here For Real Estate but you

know what I'm seeing seeing a lot of

sellers that are like ah we're not going

to sell we're just going to refinance

cuz they have like s or 8% interest

rates some of them I don't think they're

going to be able to pull off refinancing

so I think there're going to be a sweet

ton of deals to get in real estate in q1

Q2 uh we got a lot of good deals here in

Q4 we think we absolutely crushed it

with house hack again go to house hack

homes YouTube channel I'll link it down

below under the gold course pitch which

uh seriously the gold

course it's worth your money it's 100%

if you want if you want a tax deduction

going into 2024 and you just want the

best from somebody who manages over $100

million gold

course link down below right next to the

link for the h YouTube show okay but now

we got to talk about stock picks what

about stock picks well I wrote this on

eack and I wanted to add a little bit

more clarity on uh well here on YouTube

we can really talk about some of these

things on YouTube a little bit better so

first I still think chips are a play now

look at the end of 2022 we nailed it we

we went crazy heavy on chips at the end

of 22 we didn't know we were going to

get the AI Rush uh which is wild but I

actually think 2024 will be the year of

profit in other words companies having

to prove that they're able to grow

profit so stocks we're watching for

growing profits well are definitely not

going to be the Nikes the best buies the

Walmarts the targets the costos these

are your Staples and

discretionarily to try to hit their

sales targets and so trade desk is a

potential beneficiary of this so that

they can show their investors growth

again so we still like trade desk we

also uh obviously still like tsmc uh

asml Nvidia AMD those those are kind of

generic Intel right and so on uh but

also green energy and building if the

real estate if real estate continues to

avoid a downturn uh we're big fans of

your lows Your Home Depot your end phase

your solar Edge uh basically companies

you know Restoration Hardware companies

that would benefit likely or hopefully

uh from new spending from homeowners

again whether they're refinancing or

taking out debt through credit lines or

whatever it is I saw somebody left a

comment they're like oh Kevin thinks

people are going to refinance their

homes to take $30,000 of equity out just

because they have some principal pay

down uh over the last 3 years that they

haven't used yet missing the point man

you don't have to Finance your whole

loan you got to wake up to credit lines

America's built on

debt credit lines are like literal

credit cards CR delicious delicious

credit cards imagine going to a local

credit union who is desperate for your

business and that credit union says oh

looks like you got some equity in your

home that you've built up over the few

years how would you like one of these

right here let's get a little focus on

how would how would you like one of

these a GP Morgan card huh you want one

how would you like it except it's for

your house so every time you

go you get to take money out of your

house at an interest rate that's the

fraction of a credit

card and depending on what you spend it

on is potentially a tax write off that

got a little more tricky after uh after

actually the Trump uh tax cut uh uh plan

of

2017 debt now follows what you invested

in so not all the money you take out on

a helck is a tax write off anymore uh

but anyway that is a huge potential

source of spending and what of those

people spend money on when they get

credit lines cars

boats uh you know Home Improvements

solar it's great but the other thing

that could be a big big big big thing is

honestly Apple's q1 headset launch that

could either be inconsequential so like

a big nothing burger or might be the

beginning of a significant new product

line like the iPad how many iPads that

you have before 2010 zero cuz it didn't

exist yet but frankly I have so many of

these darn things it's wild but the iPad

is a Wonder tool everybody has PDFs

these days if you don't have a good PDF

reader yet you're missing out we

actually talk about my workflow in the

gold course oh there's a little dirt on

it uh talk about my workflow in the gold

course about not only how I take notes

how I edit how I research how I keep all

organized how I have like little Bots

that can kind of name things and title

things for me it's it's really kind of

cool uh this this is a game changer I

love iPads uh in fact I have various

different versions of them I even have

the tiny iPad right here this is like

the mediumsized iPad uh this right here

is the tiny one yeah this is really good

for when you're going skiing and you

want to take a break at the lodge you

know child needs a little distraction or

whatever cuz it's light

bro you get one of those uh giant iPads

the iPad pros and then you put the

little keyboard thingy on

it try lugging that thing around in a

backpack man going to freaking work man

ain't going to work so um

anyway the headset could be a game

changer rivan by the way as I wrote here

on eack rivan I also think bonds are

going to keep rallying but anyway which

is good for TMF which I've been pitching

for a while now a lot of y'all made

money on TMF

you want to say thank you by the gold

course anyway uh rivan has survived hell

while still not making profitable cars

they could explode on vehicles turning

profitable which I think there is a

chance rivan goes profitable on vehicles

in

2024 game Cher right there that would be

a game changer on top of that AI

software sales will be heavily

scrutinized I I don't think the the SAS

Revenue growth people are expecting from

AI will be that great but paler I think

will be no guarantees obviously

obviously but I regard paler as the only

AI focused company already profitable

and I think in 2024 they finally prove

it

mainstream so those are just some

examples I've got plenty of other stock

picks that we're talking about with

course members and that so stay tuned

buckle up if you want to be part of

those course member live streams when we

do analysis together gold course it's

not just the lectures you get you know

you want to learn about taxes or being

an entrepreneur or efficiency or

whatever and you want to tax right off

by the end of the year gold course you

want access to all the live streams gold

course but

anyway jobs that's the biggest concern I

have for next year I'm just looking my

notes Here biggest concern for next year

it's jobs so we'll see what happens but

uh I'm cautiously optimistic really

appreciate you being here I'll keep

bringing updates to you and I'm going to

finish getting some really good

foundations set for 2024 I personally as

just a personal note am extremely

excited

because I got tests behind me I got

Foundation Building behind me I got

physical infrastructure set up behind me

you know whether it's offices or Studio

upgrades uh Transportation up whatever

all these things are set and now it's

just work and I'm so excited uh and if

you know somebody or want to recommend

somebody for an interview on the channel

send them over to me on Twitter at real

meet Kevin thanks so much we'll see you

the next one bye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin PA there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser real estate broker and

becoming a stock broker this video is

neither personalized Financial advice

nor real estate advice for you it is not

tax legal or otherwise personalized

advice tailored to you this video

provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

party content I show should not be

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

and shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purpose

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services which we may benefit from I

personally operate and actively managed

ETF and hold long positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuers other

than house act nor am I presently acting

as a market

maker