*Prepare for an Nvidia Stock BOMBSHELL* [NVDA Q3 2023 Preview]

quick note the Black Friday sale for the

meetkevin programs is live at

meetkevin.com in this video we are going

to preview Nidia earnings this is a big

deal if you are exposed at all to the

chip sector artificial intelligence

Investments or you're curious about what

to look for for this upcoming earnings

report keep in mind after the insanity

of what ensued over this weekend which

left a lot of people really sad with the

exception of Microsoft CEO really happy

open a a I move to Microsoft well at

least a substantial portion of the open

AI employees who are threatening to

leave in addition to those who have

already left will probably mean more

investments from Microsoft into

artificial intelligence related spending

now keep in mind Microsoft does have its

own artificial intelligence chips but

these are built on a 5 nanometer

technology they're not as powerful as

the Nvidia h100s or the combination new

Grace Hopper 200 these are great

products and the reality is most

businesses right now are trying to get

their hands on any kind of chips that

they can get their hands on here's the

example of what Microsoft is building

out it is the Maya ma a a anyway 100 AI

accelerator there's also a CPU version

that sits up to the top of this racket

that they're manufactur or well

designing as well Microsoft is using

Taiwan Semite to manufacture but why I

bring up open AI at the beginning of

this Nvidia discussion is I actually

believe that in order to now Panic

transition I really want you to think

about that your Panic transition is

transitioning is what you're doing from

an open aai relationship which you're

going to maintain that relationship at

micros at um open AI from Microsoft but

you're going to go from maintaining the

GPT 3 and A2 4.0 relationship to

creating your own uh your own version uh

potentially even stronger than what you

have with 3.5 4.0 now why again am I

bringing this up in an Nvidia segment

well because even though Microsoft is

dabbling in making their own chips on a

basically dated chip wafer platform or

the semiconductor spacing uh platform of

the 5 nanometer chips which is probably

quite frankly good enough for the data

infrastructure anyway but it's still a

data chip you know getting down to 2

nanometers now the a lot of advanced

chips are being manufactured on 3

nanometers point is though Microsoft is

going to in my opinion be in a situation

where they say uh-oh in order for us to

catch up basically go from zero to open

AI level we're going to have to throw

hundreds of millions of dollars if not

billions of dollars into AI now and we

don't have time to wait to get enough of

our own chips let's buy what we can get

our hands on now and that is going going

to be a combination of Intel chips AMD

chips Nvidia chips they're going to grab

whatever they can in my opinion this is

going to be very much like a Tesla bu uh

buys h100s Tesla buying 10,000 h100s uh

thanks to Elon musk's desire to

accelerate FSD as quickly as possible

why not just make more Dojo

supercomputers because you don't have

the time you don't have the quality yet

you don't have the Perfection yet and

you don't want to sandbag your ability

to compete while you try to perfect the

chip when you could just spend the money

buy one off the shelf so to speak as the

supply becomes available and get to your

real Mission which for Tesla's

accelerating FSD which for Microsoft is

now creating that open AI competitor uh

let's be clear I made a video on this

earlier Microsoft has now essentially de

facto control of what's left of open Ai

and the brain of open AI that created

open AI in the first place so they kind

of have everything which topic for a

different video on whether or not we

should be fearful about that and

artificial G general intelligence and

otherwise I already made a video on that

you could just type in into YouTube meet

Kevin open AI Microsoft and you'll see

it it's very detailed so watch that

video but let's now focus on Nvidia

nvidia's earnings are tomorrow expected

implied one-day volatility is 7.11% it's

about 2% more than the average of

volatility I think if you get anything

outside of guidance here you're probably

going to see more like a 10% drop or 10%

boon that's my guess now it could be in

either directions we have no idea but if

I'm looking at this thinking okay if if

implied volatility is only 7% on an AI

play right now I'm probably looking at

straddles not personalized Financial

advice but I want you to know where they

sit with Wall Street expectations and

where we have some new expectations

coming in uh for NVIDIA so we're going

to go through all of these we're also

going to go through some price targets

now the first thing that I'd like to do

is look at their last press release

because in their their last press

release you're actually going to see

what their prior estimates were and

their prior estimates uh for this

quarter are going to align with what

Wall Street is pricing in right now and

you'll kind of get to see how excited

people are okay here are the estimates

Wall Street right now is pricing in

$16.1 billion of Revenue they gave

guidance of $16 billion so you're

leaning towards the upside on that and

on margin Wall Street is also pricing in

the upside of 72.4 on margin versus the

guide that they gave so you're already

leaning into the upside on estimates I

think the biggest risks outside of

course missing these estimates for

NVIDIA are going to be what they tell us

about Supply in order for NVIDIA to keep

printing we need more and more Supply

and in the last earnings call Nvidia

told us that they expect more Supply to

come on essentially every quarter over

the next year but if there are any snags

in Supply you could have a hit to this

stock price pretty quickly it's priced

well right now and it's priced

optimistically based on what we're

seeing that doesn't mean they can't beat

an optimistic forecast it's just harder

to beat something that's optimistic it's

easy to beat something that's bearish

harder to beat something that's

optimistic I'm not personally so worried

about the China debacle and sanctions uh

we're still waiting on more guidance on

exactly what's going to happen with that

chip disaster uh for selling chips to

China which currently make up 20 to 25%

of nvidia's Revenue nvidia's already

told us they don't actually expect any

kind of sanctions impact to be material

given that their revenue is just

absolutely exploding I mean over 10

billion doar in a quarter from data

center it's absolutely insane and the

pie is growing even though there's more

competition coming from AMD Intel

Microsoft Google all these companies

making their own chips the pie is

growing substantially we'll go through

some estimates here in a moment but I

want to be clear personally gaming

lapping a hole that's good news China

not so worried about Supply that would

be the big red flag if we have a supply

lag because that's just going to give

the competitors more time to catch up

keep in mind that Nvidia is also

shifting from an 18 to 24mth refresh

cycle down to a 12-month refresh cycle

which gives them a little bit of moat

against their competitors it's kind of

like having an a new iPhone every year

and you're trying to like stay ahead of

the competition whereas the competition

is basically trying to now shoot ahead

of you and that's a little harder to do

but look at what Goldman Sachs has to

say Goldman Sachs right now has a $65

price Target on Nvidia they maintain

this as a about approximately a 24%

upside on uh on the stock they think

you're going to see a lot of wallet

shift uh this is just a fancy way of

saying look Google spends 20 billion on

plant property and Equipment spend in a

quarter okay in a quarter that's almost

a billion dollars a day going to plant

property and Equipment how crazy is that

just writing those checks every day I I

don't Envy their accounting

department anyway uh this is massive

money and Goldman's suggesting that

you're going to see a lot of those

Investments move away from regular data

center general purpose compute storage

Cloud compute right and it's going to

move over to artificial intelligence uh

Google already reporting that 80% of

their users uh who run ads are already

using some form of artificial

intelligence the problem with this is uh

you it's not just a matter of buying the

chips it's also a matter of running

these machines efficiently so for

example if you have a server racks like

this and then at the top you have let's

say an AMD CPU or maybe you use the gh2

200 CPU uh and then on top or underneath

that you have a bunch of the uh h100

gpus or the A1 100s or whatever you need

to connect these server racks and

connect within the server racks with the

highest quality potential data

infrastructure which is basically a

fancy way of saying you need the Good

crap the good ethernet cables okay and

guess who makes the really good server

ethernet cables it's a product called

infiniband infiniband is basically your

data center ethernet uh grade uh

Ethernet or data center quality

high-speed artificial intelligence

robust uh you know cabling uh infin band

is uh it's it's again very very similar

uh to ethernet I want you to see what it

looks like because I think I think it's

kind of cool this is uh what it uh looks

like it it kind of looks like an

Ethernet that's rigged with a different

plug quite frankly this is just a quick

little Google search here of what

infinite band looks like uh and and you

I mean look at this 200 G's man 200

gigabits of data let's freaking go uh

that's awesome but what do you need to

know about this Nvidia owns it yeah

Nvidia owns infin ban these these people

are absolutely brilliant you have to

remember that about Nvidia and look this

stock could crash horribly if they

slightly Miss so I'm not here to like

put the you know knee pads on for NVIDIA

I'm just saying okay they've got the

cabling infrastructure they have the

software moat called cuda not Cuba Cuda

that's their software moat you want to

make a Leading Edge uh artificial

intelligence platform you're probably

building it out with Cuda software and

they've got both the CPUs and the gpus

now with their Grace hoofer 200 this

this is a really big deal the problem is

wall Street's already pricing in hyped

up expectations so yes you could get

screwed on this am I going to play these

earnings absolutely not am I long Nvidia

hell freaking yeah do I think Nvidia and

paler and Tesla and AMD and Intel are

your best AI plays hell yeah do I think

Microsoft probably has you know good

things going for it too yes like what we

talked about though this morning we

touched on this this morning in the

market open live stream which if you're

not familiar yet totally for free you

could join me in the market open live

streams every single day the market is

open just type in YouTube meet Kevin

live subscribe to that channel and then

you'll see the live streams you can join

those every day no cost happens right

before the course member live stream uh

and uh I'm also going to be live soon

for the meet Kevin politics Channel if

you want to watch that or the podcast

Channel they're all linked down below

but anyway regarding Microsoft it's it's

worth noting I personally think there

are some downsides to Microsoft ahead

don't get me wrong I absolutely love

Microsoft but here's what I look at when

I look at Microsoft I look at risks of

deflation leading to lower rates leading

to a desire for growth at all costs and

as you leave an interest rate sensitive

environment you move away from Microsoft

as a safety play which is very robust

safety play and it's performed very well

and I think your growth is potentially

going to be far super Superior in these

plays that I just mentioned now if

inflation stays high you're way better

off at Microsoft okay that's that's just

my thesis me personally though I believe

that inflation will plummet and that's

why I like Nvidia Tesla Palante or

otherwise okay great so uh what else do

we need to know about Nvidia well let's

keep going here with the Goldman Sachs

analysis so we've got the 610 price

Target from Goldman Sachs

forward-looking commentary on

infrastructure continues to be

supportive of their trajectory uh gaming

you're meeting you're you're lapping the

bottom uh expecting uh investors to

focus on new color going forward on

Supply chains we already know that

here's their forecast they think that if

you're just bearish and you take out

generative AI Nvidia still does data

center revenue of about 10 billion a

quarter which is basically the level

where we are now about 40 billion a year

personally my target is actually 10 uh

or sorry 100 billion per year which is

roughly 2 and 1 12x the current estimate

and it's a about let's see 100 divided

by 65 which is Goldman's bull Target I'm

about 50% higher than their bull Target

so I guess if you wanted to translate

that into a price for my price Target

I'm probably sitting at around 900 bucks

for inidia as a longer term price Target

it wouldn't be my 12-month although

stock market Euphoria in the short term

could price in an Nvidia 900 if it did

in the short term I'd probably sell it

because it's definitely a longer price

target for me getting to $25 billion per

quarter at Nvidia probably going to be

more like a 3 to 4year play you've you

you've really got to like double and

then another half so I think that's

going to take a little bit of time I

would give it about a 30% growth rate uh

probably actually a little bit more than

that to actually get where I need to get

so if I go 30% growth rate for 3 years

I'm about 22 billion yeah I'm going to

have to be about probably

35% to get to my uh Target of 25 yeah

yeah if you got to grow at about 35% per

year to get to my 25 bill but uh per

quarter but I think that's realistic so

we'll see anyway that's my belief and I

do think there's a chance the market

will price in that Euphoria I still

think a lot of bears on Nvidia think

that AI is a flash in the pan which

which don't get me wrong like consumer

AI to some extent is but I don't care

about consumer AI I care about

Enterprise AI because that's where the

savings are going to be and that's where

the capex Investments are going to go so

this is my take I will be live by the

way tomorrow afternoon 100 p.m. mark

your calendar 1 p.m. November 21st

Market live stream it's going to be a

market closing live stream meet Kevin

live okay that's where it's going to be

for the Nvidia earnings we'll cover it

together ready buckle up let's go and of

course my usual disclaimer even though

I'm a licensed financial adviser real

estate broker and becoming a stock

broker this video is neither

personalized Financial advice nor real

estate advice for you it is not tax

legal or otherwise personalized advice

tailored to you this video provides

generalized perspective information and

commentary any thirdparty content I show

should not be deemed endorsed by me this

video is not and shall never be deemed

reasy sufficient information for the

purpose of evaluating a security or

investment decision any links or

promoted products or either paid

affiliations or products or Services

which we may benefit from I personally

operate and actively manage ETF and hold

long positions in various securities

potenti including those mentioned in

this video however I have no

relationship to any issuers other than

house act nor am I presently acting as a

market

maker boom well there you have it folks

thank you so much for watching I'll see

you at that live stream remember to go

to meetkevin.com to check out my Black

Friday sales on the amazing programs I'm

building your wealth goodbye