The Crypto Dip.

hey everyone me kevin here well well

well bitcoin is facing a big test and so

are a lot of cryptocurrencies this week

let's talk about that but also go

through some other updates that are

going on then we'll look at some ta and

see what's going on with price action

first a new study done by the civic

science foundation found that four

percent of respondents to their survey

quit their job because of gains in

cryptocurrencies which is really really

incredible of that four percent they

were primarily lower income individuals

27 percent of them made less than twenty

five thousand dollars thirty seven

percent made between twenty five and

fifty k that means sixty four percent of

people who quit their jobs because of

crypto were making under fifty thousand

dollars a year and hopefully have been

able to change their lives because of

this this is so really cool this is uh

and congratulations to those individuals

uh this uh this was also uh talked about

under a headline one in 25 americans

quit their jobs due to gains in

cryptocurrencies uh that sounds a lot

bigger than four percent but we'll go

with it

anyway the survey was conducted in the

month of october had approximately 1200

respondents pretty respectable sample

size for this type of survey remember

sample sizes and statistics are all

about trying to find a representative

random population 1200 is not bad for

for this

but either way four percent uh

of quite frankly if if we could

extrapolate this to represent america if

this was truly a random survey

and if we were able to determine that

four percent of the labor force is

broadly quitting the workforce because

of cryptocurrency it's worth noting

that's about six million workers or

about five hundred thousand workers not

going back to work uh or potentially

quitting every single month for a year

so in other words one of the reasons

maybe we're seeing bad unemployment

numbers is because crypto has been doing

so well now obviously we're in a little

bit of a red moment here with crypto

coming off some of the all-time highs

that we've recently hit which we're

going to talk about in just a moment but

really incredible survey younger

investors worth noting also much more

bullish on crypto than older investors

when asked do you expect it to be

wealthier than your parents as a result

of your cryptocurrency investments 18 to

24 year olds uh 37 uh well actually uh

21 of them said yes and only uh 10

percent of 35 to 54 year olds

said yes that means you have twice as

much enthusiasm amongst 18 to 24 year

olds than you do between 35 to 54 year

olds

a lot of maybes and uh actually quite a

lot of no i don't hear do you expect to

be wealthier than your parents as a

result of your cryptocurrency

investments no i don't i wonder if the

no i don't somewhat represents a little

bit of a disappointment and how

difficult it has been to buy uh larger

assets uh for for people's household

portfolios usually like real estate

because real estate prices have moved uh

so substantially

but uh more more on uh

or more on real estate in a different

video uh also by now i'm sure you've

heard that the stable center is

rebranding to crypto.com it is a 20-year

deal it is effective christmas day the

staples center has been called the

staples center since its inception in

1999 it'll be the first time it's

changed its name also we just had

regulatory approval for the selling of

56 million dollars in illegal

cryptocurrency from a 44 year old

promoter of bit connect remember that

one bit connect oh man uh we've also got

chinese authorities again this week uh

doubling down on their quote full scale

crackdown on cryptocurrency mining this

is potentially leading crypto uh

specifically bitcoin to fall under its

60 000 dollar support line uh let's now

talk some technical so if we look at

some technicals for bitcoin here and

then we'll look at some price action on

some other coins we we definitely have

seen bitcoin now fall under its 60 000

support and it really slow bled out to

get under 60 000. now let's go out to 30

minutes just to compress this a little

bit more you kind of see this over here

this is uh this is your 60 000 uh i'm

sorry this is your 63 000 level here

this is 60 000 right here so we had a

quick drop from about 63 8 to 60. we

rubber banded here but we really had

this sort of slow bleed out that

stretched out over the last few days

here and then all of a sudden we got a

sharper sell-off right around 59 000 and

that brings us to where we are now which

is actually under our 58 000 support

line this is a pretty important support

line we've been bouncing off of this

quite a bit here if we look at the

one minute chart we fell below it we

dropped down an oversold to about 56.6

now we're bouncing off that 58 line

we're dropping again at the moment at

the time of this recording this 58 line

is very very important because if what

we see happen here uh is the same thing

that ended up happening at the 60 000

line which is we rubber banded around it

for a couple days let's go ahead and

look at this here let's zoom out a

little bit let's go to 30 men here there

we go okay so we see this rubber band

around here it lasted from november 15th

at about 8 p.m november 15th 8 p.m

lasted until about 8 p.m on the

17th that's about two days of rubber

banding mostly below the support line

creating obviously resistance

now we are beginning a potential rubber

band under the 58 level if we end up

sitting here for a couple days and we

can't keep it up over 58 personally i

believe that we are heading to 54 000.

now the 54 000 support line is not a

very strong support line we have a much

stronger support line at 47 000 with uh

4 seven thousand one hundred and another

one at forty six thousand eight hundred

which really gives you a strong region

of support right around the forty seven

thousand level this is a strong support

line uh i'm not thinking that we're

going to be able to see a dip to 37 000

unless we saw some substantial

liquidations which is possible the

liquidations could go up if if we did uh

run to about 47 000 but i do believe

that there is a good chance that there

is a next stop for bitcoin at about 54

000 i'm not sure if we're going to push

down past that support line but we'll

see how price action is here

but right now the fact that we can't get

back over 58 uh over the last uh sort of

uh you know two three hours here is

something to pay attention to from a

technical point of view now uh if you

look at bollinger bands right now we are

obviously

we're at a relative low in terms of

bollinger bands i like to use trading

view to look at bollinger bands

but uh

it's worth noting that these will

stretch with price action so as with all

technical analysis there's always a

downside to some ta

and

we did see right here

historically bollinger bands always work

better as almost all ta does but anyway

we did see a bounce off of the bollinger

over here at about that 56 six level

although we do and we're starting to see

these compress a little bit here which

could be a good sign that we're going to

kind of stay at 58 hopefully break out

over 58 and push back over 60. that

would be best case scenario but if we do

continue to get some negativity and some

fun whether that's out of china or it's

because of bloomberg's notification on

their expectations that a bitcoin spot

etf is nowhere near close

then we could potentially go down to

that 54 000 level and then these

bollinger bands will obviously stretch

down uh so when i when i hear folks talk

about bollinger remember it's it's all

part of of much more ta and the news

cycle the big news piece though is in my

opinion what bloomberg announced this

morning we covered this live uh when the

alert came through the bloomberg

terminal uh the uh the notification had

to do with

uh the bitcoin spot etf would which

would be a way for potentially trillions

of dollars to flow into the

cryptocurrency markets for people to in

a low fee

lower risk method be able to buy

cryptocurrency now the

uh of course most cryptocurrency hodlers

are much more interested in holding

their own coins themselves which i am as

well in fact i generally like to buy my

coins on coinbase pro because it has the

lowest fees and then i could transfer

those to areas with higher fees however

i have to say i'm very frustrated

recently with voyager digital because i

transferred about a million dollars i

was more like eight nine hundred

thousand nine hundred thousand to a

million dollars over in cryptocurrency

to voyager digital and uh then i wanted

to send my cryptocurrency from voyager

digital back to coinbase pro to do some

trading but i couldn't because i was

limited to a 25 000 per transaction

limit so kind of frustrated by that i'm

sorry per transaction is 250 000 you

could trade 250 000 within voyager but

if you want to withdraw from voyager to

trade because they make their fees on

their massive spreads at voyager you can

only withdraw 25 000 at a time so it's

very very disappointed about that

uh not happy i feel like i kind of got

chinese handcuffed where it was easy to

go in hard to go out

right i don't like that but anyway

obviously a spot etf would make a lot of

cryptocurrency trading and speculating a

lot easier we would expect massive

inflows into the market and the market

has recently been pushing

cryptocurrencies to new highs in

anticipation of an etf getting approved

but the sec has essentially thrown up

its hands suggesting that

they don't believe that a regulatory

agency or or a self-regulating agency

like uh exchanges or whatever will be

able to prove that a spot etf will not

be manipulated or used for fraudulent

purposes until there's some form of new

law

or legal framework and the sec can't

create that new law or new framework

congress has to do it so we might

actually be waiting for congress to act

on a bitcoin etf and quite frankly i

think before congress reacts on a

bitcoin etf we're probably going to end

up seeing cryptocurrency regulation on

stable coins which could potentially be

short-term fud

uh followed by then hopefully uh

regulatory action on an actual etf a

spot etf remember a spot etf would track

pricing for bitcoin much more closely

compared to a futures etf which we have

now which came out with a lot of fanfare

uh you know over we've got billions of

dollars in assets under management and

some of these futures etfs but these are

these are dangerous these are expensive

you're probably bloomberg's estimating

you're probably looking at 10 in annual

fees uh just because of backwardation

and contango uh and and the way uh

futures contracts roll uh and uh you're

pretty much getting a bad shake a bad

deal if you're buying the bitcoin

futures etf to buy and huddle it of

course if you're interested in buying

and hodling in my opinion the best thing

to do is just buy coin and huddle it i

am a cryptocurrency trader i very i'm

very very passionate about trading and

when i see momentum going in a certain

direction i like to trade

anytime i do trade i send alerts whether

it's in stocks uh it's in options or

it's in cryptocurrency i anytime i trade

i send notifications in my stocks and

psychology money group which remember

you could use the black friday coupon

code link down below for that uh and

generally i am looking for trades on a

day to a week basis for my trades so

somewhere in that range where i'm

looking to do trades between i would say

1 to 14 days is usually where i like to

trade i'm not

much of a day trader so intraday i

generally don't trade so i'm not

spending too much time on the one or

five minute candlesticks i'm generally

looking at longer trends and trying to

capitalize on those and longer support

trends uh so it just kind of gives you a

little bit about my personality uh for

trading now also bear in mind i only

trade with about uh the latter five

percent of my portfolio i like to keep a

lot of my portfolio in long high

conviction plays that i have very long

high conviction plays that i have are

going to be things like enphase etsy

tesla affirm whatever these are very

long high conviction plays uh it's soon

to be nvidia when i can buy that darn

thing on a dip we've only got a small

portion of my portfolio in nvidia and i

wish i had more

but i'm going to wait for a dip to buy

uh with cryptocurrency cryptocurrency is

a pure trading tool for me i love it i

believe in blockchain long run uh

substantially

but uh but i do regularly trade crypto

so i enjoy that but anyway uh this uh

this gives you a little bit of insight

into uh what's going on i do believe

that uh it is very possible that we're

we're going to see this 54 000 number if

i had to put odds on it you know if i

looked into my crystal ball and i had to

put odds on this i would probably say

that uh we have a good chance of hanging

out at 58 for uh for for some period of

time before breaking down to 54. odds of

breaking down to 54 i would say probably

somewhere around 70 percent so that's

kind of looking at my crystal ball and

roulette table probably about 70 that

we're gonna go to 54. i would probably

only estimate that we're around 20

chance of actually falling down to 47

though that's possible depending on how

we how we end up trading over here at

54.

uh and and probably only about a five

percent chance that we revisit the 30s

within the next probably within this

year so i would say within the next six

weeks a substantial chance of revisiting

54 much smaller chance of revisiting uh

some of the the lower numbers here

that's just my belief i do think that

there is though out of that you know if

70 chance of going to 54 i do think

there's probably a

20 chance uh that we that we end up back

over 60 000 and stabilizing over there

maybe five percent chance that we just

end up channeling somewhere in between

here those are just sort of my beliefs i

do think we'll end up going in one of

these directions we'll either get back

to 60 and above that uh or or we'll go

to 54k so there if you believe that

we're going to go down to 54k there

could be an opportunity to sell your

cryptocurrency investments and rebuy

them though remember this does carry

significant risk that you could end up

missing a sudden breakout so uh that

that is something you have to be aware

of when you're a trader you can miss

breakouts that is the nature of trading

so uh these are some of my thoughts uh i

will say uh voyager digital has uh ran

substantially i am completely out of

voyager digital it's worth noting that

uh again anytime i send a buy sell

alerts i send them in the stocks in

psychology when any group like down

below

but uh

i do believe that one of the reasons

voyager ran substantially was on

shiba inu momentum because you could buy

sheep on voyager

when you couldn't buy it anywhere else

uh i am still very optimistic about

voyager's uh

coinify partnership i i still haven't

made a video

diving into directly why i'm bullish on

that

but i am still frustrated by some

elements of voyager that i've been

experiencing over the last couple days

specifically limits on being able to

transfer out

and and relatively slow customer service

to potentially extending my limits as

well as very high spreads when you're

buying and selling so if you all of a

sudden want to pop into voyager and

you're like oh i want to sell because

you're you want to trade

your stock because you you you're paying

large fees if you want to get back to

coinbase po pro you've got a problem so

if you are a trader you're probably best

hanging out uh on coinbase pro or uh and

i know this pisses a lot of people off

and they roll their eyes at this but

honestly if you're a trader and you want

literally the best fees

and you do not care about staking or

actually having your keys

uh and you're just speculating

robin hood i know that sounds nuts and

i'll probably get chastised in the

comments for that but they beat

everyone's fees and i'm not trying to

shell robin hood uh i'm not very happy

with robin hood i have a lot of

disappointments for robin hood if i were

robin hood i would be doing things very

very differently uh but again i do think

there is a very short term

a trading opportunity here in crypto i'm

bullish on crypto for the first part of

2020. uh i

will be tracking inflation expectations

though and inflation results because i

do think that once inflation

expectations wane

uh there is going to be some selling

pressure on crypto however we may have

rallied substantially before we ever

even get to that point so

anyway these are some of my thoughts on

crypto the market check out the black

friday coupon code down below and folks

we'll see you next one thanks so much

[Music]

you