The END of DeepSeek | Fake AI Catalyst?

holy smokes what is SoftBank doing with

open AI what does this have to do with

the whole AI race Nvidia drama Microsoft

meta we got to talk about it Apple

earnings in new crypto ETFs in we'll

talk about those we'll also talk about

some potential risk factors as well as

what's still going really well in the

economy right now let's get started

today on January 31st for news that

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kevin.com and for now let's get into the

topic of the video all right so with

that out of the way the SEC has approved

a part of an application for an ETF that

would track both Bitcoin and

ethereum this is sort of a prediction

that I made a couple years ago that in

the future we would actually have basket

ETFs and they're finally starting uh

this is really kind of think about I

mean this isn't a big prediction but

think about it like a almost like an S&P

500 but of the crypto world where you

know you don't have to pick which

cryptocurrency you want to invest in you

just throw a 100 bucks in and $20

automatically goes to salana and 10 goes

to do and 50 goes to bitcoin whatever

the allocations are right it's an

interesting start and it looks like

we'll be starting with Bitcoin and

ethereum though there was also a filing

for a doge ETF and the more you get

those individual ETF filed the more

likely it is that you're going to end up

getting more of these basket ETFs and

then of course you'll end up getting

more of the leveraged basket ETFs as

well like we have on the triple NASDAQ

you end up getting for the Triple

cryptos right anyway uh the corporate

buyback window is open which is actually

kind of bullish for the stock market the

corporate buyback window was mostly

closed for about the last 3 weeks 28% of

the corporate buyback window opened on

Monday 45% is open by next Monday and

60% by the end of next week this should

lead to about 7 billion a day of buying

support so in other words retail has to

payer hand to the tune of $7 billion a

day just to keep stocks where they

are kind of crazy depending on obviously

the BuyBacks and where those BuyBacks

are let's be real okay there's a company

called end phase I don't know if you've

ever heard about it you don't need to

know about it

anyway they buy back stock all the time

it doesn't

help anyway uh UBS by the way calls the

AI selloff this week troubling but

contained mostly because they see that

it's been contained heavily to uh Nvidia

and some of the more uh chip related

plays Super Micro arm uh AMD but the

broader sectors continue to expand uh in

part uh this is likely because what

we're seeing uh is this idea that well

first of all what SoftBank is doing with

open AI but also this idea that hey wait

a minute you know AI like what what deep

seek innovated is actually good for a

whole lot of people think about this for

a

moment and we talked about this La over

the weekend on on Monday as well but who

benefits when we end up having deep seek

winning and the answer is you do

everybody wins right like consumers win

startups win small companies that don't

yet have the money to pay for big

language learning bottles they win

there's a lot of winning that goes on

frankly when AI costs come down so now

what while deep seek is getting

investigated over how they potentially

got their Hands-On h100 chips through

shell companies in Singapore which isn't

really that big of a surprise uh what is

actually really exciting is hey you've

got a lot of people saying just don't

worry about it there's plent plenty of

opportunity like this isn't the AI

bubble popping in fact this could be the

unleashing of the beginning of AI

because a bunch of new companies can now

actually access training compute more

affordably now what is interesting is if

you look at the Google trends for deep

seek some people are saying deep seek

might be a flash in the pan and it'll

just be a moment of time or a moment in

time before you actually end up seeing

uh deep seek just gone entirely it's

still number one in the App Store but if

you look at the Google Trends here deep

seek was really only raining Supreme

there on about the 26th and 27th uh and

it's come down over to where we sit now

on January 31st hey that's coupon

expiration night uh anyway so uh does

this really mean anything for deep seek

no not really because it's not so much

that we need to use the Deep seek app

versus other apps it's the training

efficiency that came from it that could

end up being sort of a thorn in the side

to some of the chip makers that's it but

but that is again a benefit to companies

like Microsoft and meta and apple apple

obviously who just reported earnings uh

and other companies who want access to

artificial intelligence and quite

frankly I don't think the C you know the

you know Sun from SoftBank is you know

really heavily concerned I mean look at

this guy's house this is this guy's

house in Japan and uh now they're

offering to invest 43 billion do into

open AI at a valuation three times as

high as what the valuation was uh back

in uh 2023 when they first hit the scene

there was a valuation estimate of about

$105 billion now they're trying to raise

money at 300 billion which honestly

after the Deep seek moment I would

imagine that uh the the valuation would

have sunk on open Ai and even anthropic

because their ability to raise money has

actually gone down and so part of me

thinks that SoftBank is just so exposed

to AI uh and arm as another beneficiary

partnering with open AI right

that soft bank which owns a lot of arm

basically has to prop up open AI with

talk about a big funding round at a huge

valuation to prop up all their other

stocks call me Jaden but that's just

kind of what I think uh now In fairness

uh B OFA argues that uh there are this

is haret he's actually been pretty dang

bullish the last couple years he did

give a little bit of a warning though He

suggests hey look one of the reasons GDP

has outperformed so well over the last 5

years was because of excess government

spending High immigration and artificial

intelligence capex but all three of

those are expected to slow and even if

you get more beneficiaries out of the AI

efficiency models or strategies for AI

efficiency that we can adopt now it's

still worth remembering that AI capex is

a large contributor to GDP and if we do

end up getting downward revisions over

time to AI capex at the same time as we

get lower immigration or even net

negative thanks to deportation and lower

government spending due to Doge these

are all going to be a drag on GDP and

they could end up pushing us into a

substantially lower GDP regime but don't

worry this is all offset so far by the

consumer still spending money like there

is no tomorrow and they just have to

dump it all Morgan Stanley points out

that real consumer spending grows 4.2%

above the consensus of a 3.2 % estimate

goods and services coming in stronger

than expected clothing stronger durable

goods stronger although whirpool didn't

do so well after earnings real Services

spending picked up despite the

expectation for a Slowdown even Autos

did better after the Hurricanes as

people had to go buy new cars now

obviously some of that is paid for by

the insurance companies it's not

necessarily a gauge of of what's going

on with the consumer but still uh this

is uh this is pretty remarkable okay the

amount of spending we got going on in

America is wild now something that you

ought to pay attention to is saving uh

like the savings rate in America

especially even like versus Europe see

Robo questions hey can this sort of

spending keep supporting the economy uh

and at least in the United States what

you're seeing uh is a savings rate that

is actually below before the pandemic

levels so in other words people are

spending their money at a higher rate

today than they were were before the

pandemic before the pandemic we were

saving like 5 6% of our money now we're

saving like 4.8% of our money uh and and

when I say five it's probably more like

five and a half to 6% there uh maybe

even a little higher since this is 5 to

10% you can see it on the chart here uh

anyway if you look at Europe Europe

actually has a higher savings rate than

before the pandemic so they're actually

exactly the opposite which is really

interesting because if our savings rate

is so low and our GDP is so high

and Europe's GDP is so low and their

savings rate is so high let me make sure

I said that right Europe High savings

rate low GDP America High GDP low

savings rate then it begs the question

that could Europe actually see a boost

in GDP this year if people start

spending we got a little bit of an

inflation Point here Robo bank's

wondering hey maybe Europe will bottom

this year and maybe Europe outperform

the US hm interesting so far though

there's really no sign that people are

going to stop spending money I mean

honestly even Apple did better than

expected uh Apple intelligence Goldman

Sachs says uh and Bank of America I

think uh is going to drive upgrades more

vertical integration more higher margin

remember Apple has like incredible

margins on their software like 70%

margins whereas on their products

they're really only sitting around 35ish

per. Microsoft makes most of their money

from from software Apple makes most of

their money from products but software

makes more money it brings more to the

bottom line the good thing for Apple

though is despite that iPhone sale

slowdown you have an installed base of

2.35 billion people now that keeps going

up and yes iPhones went down 8%

year-over-year

but listen to this iPad up 15.2% Mac up

15.2% services up 13.9% the earnings

were actually really good I actually

just increased my exposure to Apple a

couple days ago and I was talking to

Coors members about this as well this is

this is kind of exciting uh this this

Apple is is a great company and I think

they are a huge beneficiary of more

efficient AI so that eventually when

they get up to scale because they're

always they're always slow okay they're

always incredibly slow with the

artificial intelligence

Integrations all right now Apple might

soon be able to actually make some more

money like oh yeah do you want to Apple

Cloud family plan or do you want the

Apple Cloud family plan with AI now that

might sound cheesy but frankly it's

exactly what Microsoft does and it's

been pumping their earnings okay so it's

just a matter of time until Apple does

it as well uh now something else uh to

look at is we've got uh the probable

impacts of this this sort of maybe more

slowdown in artificial intelligence uh

for capex uh do watch what happens with

the valuations of companies like Claude

and open AI because I think those will

help you dictate what happens with

stocks like arm super micro computer AMD

Nvidia because if those valuations and

investments in those companies stay high

then they might continue to still throw

money at capex I'm kind of curious to

see if we end up getting drawbacks and

capex I think we should know by April if

we're getting capex revisions or not

from from this sort of AI moment and

then this will either Fade Into

nothingness or we'll go oh crap yeah no

this actually matters data this morning

pce and ECI the employment cost index

matched honestly there's really nothing

to talk about here that matters uh we

could really keep this video shorter

because there's there's just there's

very little to talk to you about today

uh so I out of respect for your time

we're going to keep it a little simpler

uh plane crash update 41 bodies

recovered one black box recovered we

don't expect to get a black box from the

um uh the helicopter so it's the planes

black box that was recovered uh and uh

Donald Trump used it used this as an

opportunity via his press briefing

yesterday it was like back to the good

old days should I say good old days I

guess that that would be a biased way of

saying it when I said good old days I

really meant that like the past like

everybody always refers to the past as

oh you know back in the day the good old

days anyway uh back in the days when

Trump would go in there and just shout

at reporters yeah I I thought you'd ask

better questions it was like a flashback

to co whereas in there in the briefing

room just yelling at the reporters and I

expect it better from you it's so so

entertaining but anyway uh Donald Trump

ended up uh um bagging on uh the

helicopter suggesting that uh they flew

too high they were going in opposite

directions mistakes were made and Dei

might be to blame at the FAA and he

ended up reading a list of initiatives

that supported Dei from uh the Biden

Administration okay probably a little

extreme uh there are reports though at

the moment that uh the uh air traffic

control tower was potentially under

staffed this has been true at every

single Air Traffic Control Center in the

entire country for a very long time

there have been so many Staffing cuts

and shortages and I see it I mean I was

flying a twin engine yesterday uh and

we're in a very busy airspace in

Southern California and these folks are

overwhelmed I have multiple times been

on short final to land and these air

traffic control a short final by the way

means I'm like close to Landing I'm

landing within the next you know 30 45

seconds here uh and then I I I hear uh

another plane in front of me get cleared

to take off and I'm like bro are you

blind like I'm I'm about to be on the

runway and you're clearing somebody else

to take off in front of me and like I'm

a faster plane and you're clearing a

Cessna to take off in front of me so I'm

like here it comes I'm going to have to

go around and then sure enough I'm just

going to say Kevin instead of the tail

number Kevin go around diver offset to

the South and I

like back in the pattern

anyway so uh that's uh this isn't

uncommon now I'm not trying to defend

the ATC uh but I am trying to say that I

do think they don't have enough funding

uh that there aren't enough people and

then there's also some drama going on

about how oh the air traffic controller

was monitoring two

channels this is like also not very

uncommon like they sit on ground uh and

and Tower all the freaking time it's not

that big of a deal that part but I do

think they're underst staffed uh but

anyway it's a tragedy what happened

hopefully there are a lot of uh lessons

that can be learned from it uh really to

me I think uh identifying you know I saw

some comments people like oh Kevin you

can't ask Air Traffic Control what the

tail numbers are airliners are different

they don't have tail numbers bro shut up

I I float around in the LA The Lax

airspace and landed at LAX and I've done

the same thing even with lax hey am I

tracking this flight like the numbers

are right there on your iPad it's not

like a looking out of the window looking

at the tail number you just look at the

iPad okay you want me following this one

right a affirmative cool done it's it's

so fast to verify which plane you have

in sight and if this helicopter simply

verified uh yep and you're just

verifying you want us to uh F you know

keep an eye on flight you know XYZ that

we see taking off over there no no no

there's another one holy crap one extra

sentence would have solved the damn

thing on Final and people like oh they

don't have the stuff I agree they don't

have the staff so what does that mean

you just have to space the planes out

more hey I guess you're staying the

holding pattern a little

longer safety is very important I don't

I don't think one little confirmation of

which plane you're following is is uh

that big of a a cost uh and I think the

benefit is is very valuable too too many

too many near misses and I see it too

like the amount of traffic congestion

you get to these airports it's crazy uh

Daily Wealth topic today goals and

deadlines are meant to be set but

they're also meant to be missed uh that

might sound crazy but consider this uh

if we said I'll be able to score a 150

in Bowling now or or by July 4th when

would you start bowling the answer is

you'd probably start bowling

now uh but if you said one day in my

life I'm going to score 150 bowling when

are you actually going to start probably

not for years and it'll take you like 20

years to score that 150 it's kind of sad

but if you said I will bow 150 now you

would start now and the point is even if

it took you until September instead of

your July goal to Bull it at 150 at

least you're making progress so if

there's something you want to get done

in your life you want to work on that

six-pack you want to get better at

bulling you want to be a better golfer

you want to be a better YouTuber or

person you know worker whatever it is

that you're doing start

now and go to meet kevin.com and get

that coupon code expiring tonight see

y'all why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take