okay Trump

Wow. Okay. There is a lot of excitement

about what's going to happen over the

next two weeks in the stock market.

Mostly because, well, in my opinion,

Jerome Powell talks to us next

Wednesday. And if it's anything like

what he was like at NAB, which was that

not Kathy Wood interview we saw last

week, it should be pretty dang bullish

or dovish into the direction of money

printing or at least turning the money

vacuum off and going in the direction of

support for the economy. In my opinion,

this is one of the reasons why we're

seeing this insane surge of gold today

because we're seeing a market that is

ready for Powell to go doubbish. And

it's frankly great for now. Now, we

don't know if Powell is going to be too

late, but what we do know is right now

we really miss negative catalyst. We

don't have a lot negative going on. I'm

going to break down though what Donald

Trump just said because we could see

that this is probably setting up for the

next big potential negative catalyst.

We'll see. Gold though up 3.56%

which just absolutely wild. And boy that

ad AWS outage who had problems this

morning. I'm scrolling on Weeble with

course members this morning in the

course member live stream as we're

putting the alpha report together and

I'm like man the sticks. What is going

on? Weeble got hit. Venmo got hit.

United Airlines, Robin Hood, Ring

doorbells, Reddit, the New York Times,

the McDonald's app, Lyft, Disney. The

amount of companies hit by the AWS sort

of centralized server or s centralized

software problem rather than centralized

servers, right? Because the servers are

all across the country, but the software

is centralized. Uh, but anyway, insane

how many companies got hit by this. So,

just wild. But Donald Trump did talk

this morning. He talked up the deal with

Australia. uh and signed a critical

minerals rare earth deal with China

which is really interesting because if

you go to the front page of the global

times which is basically the communist

news network um not CNN sorry uh of

China the very front page the very first

article is PLA warns away Australian P8

alpha war plan plane intruding into

China's territorial airspace

right so basically uh China at the same

time as Donald Trump is meeting with the

PM of Australia uh is saying, "Hey, you

guys are

going into our territory here and you're

pissing us off." It's kind of

interesting, but it's also kind of

classic of China. Uh anytime you get

some positivity in the United States

with other countries, China tends to do

this where they try to go, "Wow, we have

problems with them." It's just I don't

know if this is sort of their way of

negotiating or what. I mean, even what

during what Donald Trump said, I thought

this was interesting. During Donald

Trump's talk, Donald Trump is going,

"China now treats us with great

respect." And at the same time, almost

the same time, I get a notification from

the Chinese embassy in the US. The facts

show the US is the real empire of

hackers and the biggest source of chaos

in cyerspace. The US has hyped up the

so-called China cyber threat theory,

coerced other countries to stir up

Chinese hacker incidents, and sanctioned

Chinese enterprises and prosecuted

Chinese citizens to confuse the public

and distort the truth.

Now, let's be clear, there are plenty of

hackers in China, and a lot of them love

using cryptocurrencies to cover up their

tract. This is not a slight against

cryptocurrencies. It's just an

observation.

It's happening on both sides. Okay. But

I I think more from an economic point of

view. Uh and I'm looking at Donald Trump

talking up this rare earth deal. He even

talks about how in one year from now

we'll have so many rare earths we won't

know what to do with all the rare

earths. Uh and that China is taking

advantage of us. We're going to go to

155% tariffs by November 1st unless we

have a deal. We'll meet in South Korea

though. I think we'll have a deal. I

think we'll end up with a very strong

trade deal. I love my relationship with

Xiinping. Uh, however, if we don't get a

deal done, uh, we're not going to allow

China to punish our farmers. China's in

big trouble if they don't do business

with the United States. We could

threaten airplane export controls. And

so, we think that China will come to the

table. We're way ahead of China

militarily. We'll catch up to them on

ship building. We're ahead of them on

AI. And

where have I told you how many wars I've

solved before? I've solved eight wars,

more than any other president. four to

five because of the greatest tariffs in

the world. The make America great again

tariffs. We're doing so great. Yeah.

Sorry. Anyway,

so basically the what you want to take

away from this is between now and

November 1st,

we're basically just going to sit here

and wait for a China trade deal. And

come November 1st, we're probably going

to get Taco in the way of, well,

we're going to give him a little bit

more time. We just need a little bit

more time. We're talking. We had a great

discussion. Great. One of the best

conversations ever, but

we're going to do 60 days or 90 days to

stop the steel. I mean, stop the

tariffs. I mean, stop China. I mean,

work with China.

So, it just wouldn't really surprise me,

which is frankly great for markets. You

know, this gold surge is concerning. It

has a lot of people scratching their

heads. I mean, we were talking about

this in the alpha report this morning

because, you know, we're making plans

for for uh trading and which stocks we

like and and targets or like for

example, we had one ticker this morning.

We're like, you know, here's a specific

date, the day before uh the POW event

that this particular ticker could could

peak out. You know, that's the kind of

stuff that we talk about in addition to,

you know, our top 10 stocks to buy for

the next 10 years or otherwise.

Remember, if you ever join the Alpha

Report, you get lifetime access to all

those uh programs. But but understand

with like where's the bad news between

now and November 1st? What CPI Friday?

Who gives a flying hoodie duty? You

know, CPI this Friday, expectations are

that it's going to come in at 04.3. Big

freaking deal. Like if anything, I feel

like we're going to miss to the downside

on it. So, I'm I'm very optimistic. I

think what Trump just said and I watched

every word of it uh is is really just

his classic commentary and I really got

nothing out of it. Uh and China's you

know puffing so to speak is also the

same thing that we regularly get. We

basically have nothing until November

1st which is and probably then we'll

even kick down the road which is great

for markets. This gold signal is a

little bit of a warning

but the 102 yield curve isn't spiking.

So, it's very weird the situation we're

in. Uh, Donald Trump then talked about

how Hamas doesn't have the support of

Iran. Bingo. This is literally what I

said uh when the Israel Hamas deal was

announced. I said the only way Hamas

goes for this deal is if they don't have

Hamas or Iran's backing that and I even

on, you know, video you saw me pick up

the phone and go, "Hey, Iran, uh, China

made this deal. We don't want to take

it. Can you send us some more weapons so

we can fight?" And Iran's like, "And no,

we're not helping you right now."

because they got humbled, you know. So,

you got to give Trump credit there, you

know. Love him or hate him, he's right

when he says we wouldn't have a deal if

it weren't for our strike on Iran. I

agree with him. Now, obviously, we got

some shenanigans going on right now

between Israel and Hamas. That's

expected. Hamas is a decentralized

terrorist group. So, you can't really

expect one leader is going to guide them

all because there is no one leader. You

got splinter cells everywhere doing

their own stupid stuff. But anyway,

uh Donald Trump did also say that Hamas

or sorry, Ukraine can still win the war.

I don't think they will, but they could.

I thought that was a very interesting

line. Uh then Hasset suggested that the

government shutdown might end this week

because the Democrats wanted the no

kings protest. I think this is total

fugazi. I think that Kevin Hasset is a

wet blanket who maybe like slightly

heard Donald Trump suggest that maybe

Democrats just wanted to wait for the no

kings protest which I haven't heard at

all. Uh but

Hasset's running with it on squawkbox.

I think that that's false. I think that

Democrats want their healthcare

negotiation which is only healthcare for

illegals thanks to Gavin Newsome. So you

can blame Gavin Newsome for that because

otherwise, you know, healthcare to

illegal uh uh immigrants is is not

allowed via federal law, but we already

know that. So, but this idea of the

shutdown, you know, ending this week,

that would be bad news because we'll

probably get a jobs report that's not

pretty. Uh but I don't think we're

actually going to shut down this week. I

think we're more realistically going to

be, you know, reopened in November,

maybe before Thanksgiving, and the

politicians want to go back to the

holidays. Uh and so frankly I I don't

see how we could be bearish unless you

know there's some kind of new bank

failure or whatever. Certainly not

between now and uh October 1st. So I'm

pretty excited uh about uh the the next

week and a half here. It's about 11

days. We'll see what breaks out. But

when it comes to Powell, understand, let

me give you a recap if you don't yet

recall what Powell said. So Powell told

us, "Wow, I'm just looking here. Some of

these sticks are doing absolutely

phenomenal today." It's really

incredible. Um, you got the mortgage

plays up. You've got, wow, one of our

stocks is up 14% today, dude. People got

mad at me in the public liveream when

I'm like, I'm buying the dip. What was

it last Friday or something? People are

trying like, well, you're gonna lose.

You're gonna lose. It's up 20 freaking

points. Uh, that's great. Oh man. Yeah,

I mean a lot just you get nervousness,

you get bad news, and then what happens?

People go back to buying the dip. You

know, it's like it it ain't bad until we

confirm either a recession or well,

yeah, basically that it's not bad until

you confirm a recession.

Anyway, that's great. But understand

this with Powell. So Powell at NAB uh

was really clear. He wants to end the

quantitative tightening,

but not only that, Powell wants to see

uh support for this labor market. So,

he's dovish on the vacuum cleaner, which

is good. I don't know if that is going

to be dovish money printing anywhere,

you know, for the potentially the next

year because you have so much of a lever

to reduce rates. Uh however, it will

probably confirm not only a rate cut on

October 29th, we'll have a rate cut then

almost certainly we'll probably get

another rate cut in December. So we'll

be at 2525 continuously. Remember what

Powell said on October 14th when he uh

turned, you know, talked about turning

the vacuum cleaner off. He says we have

other data beyond government sources.

Tariffs are affecting prices, but CPI

without the tariffs. So if you you

ignore the sort of more transitory

impact of tariffs which are more a

one-time kind of price increase what he

says if we ignore that then

we got to focus on jobs uh and therefore

uh he says we're overweight longerterm

treasuries underweight shorter term

ideally we want no MBS in the future all

of this by the way is bullish mortgage

rates coming down he says uh the data

suggests we are on a firmer trajectory

with more downside risks to labor

obviously ly there's no risk-free path.

The labor market has softened

considerably. The break evens though are

way down. So now it just all comes down

to you know what that data actually

shows. Uh Powell did talk about state

level data, ADP level data, uh and

potentially the normalization of the

beverage curve. Now this I thought was

or curve. This I thought was the most

interesting line out of the whole event

because Powell says we could be at that

moment of that normalization, the start

of it right now. And that's something he

didn't mention in his prior FOMC

meeting. In the prior FOMC meeting, he

talked about mixed signals, short live

defects from tariffs, low fire, low hire

economy. You know, that was all pretty

basic

and and cut and dry. the talk that now

we might be at the moment where the

beverage curve normalizes which means

the unemployment rate is going to

skyrocket that's a big red flag and I

would expect that dovishness to continue

from power which is bullish in the short

term because it it means big rate cuts

you know and and more support from the

Fed which is exactly probably why as I

said gold is is moving up and 10 years

are coming down uh you know people are

like crap the Fed's going doubbish means

they're about to basically

ruin the value of the dollar even more.

Remember, the best way to hedge

typically, not personalized financial

advice, against the erosion of the

purchasing power of the dollar is uh to

hold assets. Those assets can be stocks,

they could be gold, they could be real

estate. Assets are what kick butt uh in

uh in inflationary times. And I think

that while I don't see major inflation

ahead, I think that people believe

everything is fine in the economy and

Powell's about to go really doubbish.

And so we're going to go from fine

economy to basically, you know,

stimulative support from the Fed, which

is just going to debase the dollar even

more and therefore gold up stocks up,

right? Uh real estate's go up, too. And

you know, it's already been doing really

well. you know, I mean, we haven't had a

single negative year in certainly the

areas where where we've been buying with

house hack, uh, which is just crazy with

how how high rates have been, right? So,

what does this really mean? Well, it it

does leave us scratching our heads

saying, okay, well, does this

potentially mean

PAL's too late and there are real risks

brewing? And if those real risks

materialize, I mean, obviously the stock

market's going to get destroyed, which

is scary. Uh, you know, I'm not here to

make that video to say like, oh, it's

about to get destroyed because we're not

really going to get any of the data to

indicate that happening, you know, for

for weeks because we don't have the jobs

done. So, uh, and I mean, state claims

so far fine. At least what you could

see, you know, based on unemployment

claims on state level. So far,

everything seems okay. So, I you know,

I'm I'm keeping my fingers crossed that

if you're looking to do some trimming,

you still have some time here. Uh but,

uh anyway, uh that's sort of where my

head is. You know, I I think Pal's going

to Pal's going to give us a nice little

treat next week. And it's probably just

going to keep sending gold up. Uh which

is just wild. I mean, 3.6% on a day on

gold. I mean, you could you could moon

here. Uh and uh and and then it it does

beg the question of did we sweep the

cockroaches under the rug and and how

many left how many are there left?

That's what I'm most worried about. Now

we talked about some of the the risks.

Uh there are more risks that we talked

about in the alpha report this morning.

There were three main risks we talked

about in the alpha report this morning.

Uh we also provided uh some dates on uh

the best time I think potentially to do

some options rolling uh on certain

positions potentially. Obviously could

be wrong. Uh we we did on Friday

indicate that we were uh bullish the

stock market rebounding from some of the

drama that we had Thursday. We're also

not enthusiastic about coreweave because

core is about to lose 137 and then today

it did I mean it didn't do well on

Friday didn't do well today. Uh we

called that Friday morning before the

market opened which is great. Trump

tacos obviously fantastic. I know a lot

of people are going to focus on CPI this

Friday. I think it's mostly a nothing

burger. Uh Tesla earnings Wednesday.

I'll probably do an earnings preview

video on that. Uh and and then really,

you know, a lot of people are going to

be analyzing balance sheets at some of

these banks, so we'll we'll see. But uh

uh you know,

so far so good. The trailing stops are

doing well. We'll put it that way.

All right, folks. Uh we'll see you in

the next one. That's the update today.

And uh enjoy your time out there.

Goodbye and good luck.