Joe Manchin & September Stimulus Update [Sept 3]

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folks yesterday i did a full breakdown

of the infrastructure package with

what's included in the hard package

what's included in the soft package

stimulus for rich people stimulus for

not rich people and

wow the lobbying infighting that's

happening all the nonsense congress

being gone until the 13th

then supposedly coming back for three

days to only go on vacation again until

the 20th and somehow between the 20th

and the end of the month getting the

debt ceiling negotiation done dealing

with the texas abortion crisis in the

the democrats point of view which is

what nancy pelosi is saying she now

wants to vote on the texas abortion bill

uh in in the house of representatives to

codify roe v wade at the same time as

dealing with two infrastructure packages

all somehow magically between september

20th and the

end of september which is september 30th

i don't really see all of that happening

but folks we've got another wrench in

the gears this wrench has been around

before in fact there are two wrenches

senator joe manchin and kirsten cinema

have both come out and suggested they

will vote against the 3.5 trillion

dollar package senator cinema suggests

she is anti spending another three and a

half trillion dollars and senator joe

manchin says the same thing citing

concerns in a wall street journal

opinion editorial or opinion piece

suggesting he is concerned over runaway

inflation as the reason for not

supporting the bill this may force the

biden administration and congressional

leaders to tone back and reduce spending

on the overall plan completely which

might also call for changes then on salt

tax deductions and

other things like the 1031 exchange

changes real estate changes changes to

capital gains taxes you name it mansion

seemed to indicate that he would be open

to supporting a smaller sized social

infrastructure bill that would only

contain quote what america can afford

and needs to spend now he wasn't

specific about that but house budget

chair john yarmuth has argued that the

u.s has the capacity to spend a lot of

money on domestic priorities and that we

can quite frankly quote spend whatever

we need to spend in the interest of

serving american people yarmouth says

that inflation fears are quote most

likely transitory which is a phrase that

he likely got from jerome powell who has

regularly cited that the inflation we're

seeing is transitory which in fairness

to jerome powell we have seen inflation

propped up by spikes in prices for

airline travel

lodging used cars and women's dresses

and then we have seen those four things

begin to decline however now we're

seeing rent prices start bumping up and

potentially wages start pumping up so

we'll see is inflation actually going to

be transitory or is inflation going to

stick around larger and longer than

expected yarmouth suggests that hey well

lumber prices fell used car prices have

fallen two months in a row now why

bother worrying about inflation and the

reality is we should print more money

and make sure we spend and invest in

americans but regardless of these sort

of public debates it's kind of

interesting to note that there was a

leaked phone call between exxon lobbyist

keith mccoy saying that joe manchin is

somebody he talks to every week mccoy

bragged to the interviewer saying he

calls joe manchin from west virginia a

king maker and discussed quote how

on the democratic side we look for the

moderates on these issues in their

efforts to stop policies that could hurt

the company's business this had many to

this has led many to speculate the

reason for joe manchin's opinion piece

in the wall street journal and his

motivations to potentially block uh

infrastructure packages which he is

obviously a crucial vote you got to have

50 votes in the senate not going to get

republican support doesn't look like

that's even remotely a possibility at

the moment and you've got the problem of

joe manchin in addition to senator

cinema now it's also worth taking a look

at joe manchin's opinion piece here was

published today in the wall street

journal and he mentions that the nation

faces an unprecedented array of

challenges and will inevitably encounter

additional crises in the future yet

overarchingly joe manchin says an

overheating economy has proposed a

costly inflation tax on every middle and

working class american this is the

argument that consumer debt becomes

harder to pay off and the cost of just

getting by is much more expensive every

single day as inflation rises whereas

inflation actually benefits those who

own real estate and stocks as their debt

becomes easier to pay off but it becomes

something that essentially props up the

valuations of their assets making rich

wealthier so rich get

more expensive assets which make them

wealthier less expensive debts because

they make more money or have more wealth

to service those debts more easily

whereas people with consumer debt don't

have any assets that go up in value they

just have debt that is now harder to pay

off because they're not necessarily

making more money and they're not able

to keep more money because they're

spending more money on more expensive

groceries rent or other things

so joe manchin is not wrong about the

existence of an inflation tax if indeed

we do end up with long run persistent

inflation and that's the big key is are

we going to see persistent inflation joe

management says those who believe such

concerns are overstated should ask

themselves what do we do if the pandemic

gets worse under the next viral mutation

what do we do if there's a financial

crisis like the one that led to the

great recession or face a terrorist

attack this is actually something else

that joe manchin has highlighted is that

instability in afghanistan has led to

his reluctance to spend three and a half

trillion dollars now that we should

reserve this three and a half trillion

dollars so that if there's another

crisis that comes up we are prepared

therefore he goes on to say instead of

rushing to spend trillions of dollars on

new government programs and additional

stimulus funding congress should hit a

strategic pause on the

budget-reconciliated legislation

that congress should hit a strategic

pause on the budget reconciliation

legislation he says a pause is warranted

because it will provide more clarity on

the trajectory of the pandemic and it

will also determine whether inflation is

transitory or not and this is actually

quite frankly true i personally believe

that inflation will inflict downward in

the next three months

quite substantially in fact and if that

occurs perhaps then joe manchin would be

more open to passing this sort of

stimulus package towards the end of the

year rather than here in september joe

manchin is a very important vote here

another reason to pause he says we must

allow for complete reporting and

analysis of the implications of a

multi-trillion dollar bill which will

have implications for the general this

generation and the next he goes on to

say that we shouldn't come up with a 3.5

trillion dollar figure and then reverse

engineer how to spend it he says instead

we should focus on the urgent problems

that we have and that's why we are

passing the one trillion dollar package

and then we can figure out what else we

need to do now joe manchin's piece is

quite long here you could read the

entire piece on the wall street journal

it is entitled why i won't support

spending another three and a half

trillion dollars and outlines a lot of

the priorities that we just talked about

in this video

so we've got a big debate coming up in

the next few weeks and this texas

abortion law which i without taking a

stance on roe v wade because that is a

big debate topic without taking a stance

on abortion i broke down everything that

is in the texas law and how it actually

creates bounty hunter attorneys it's

quite fascinating if you have not seen

that video yet make sure to check that

video out it'll be linked up here

somewhere and folks we'll see in the

next one thanks for watching

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