The Death of the Dollar & Collapse of America: Trump's Tariff War.

This Wednesday is obviously going to be

a really big day because it's

technically America's liberation day,

which some side of Donald Trump's

administration now suggests should be a

federal holiday as soon as 2026. That's

right. Rather than celebrating Donald

Trump's birthday as a national holiday,

they would instead celebrate April 2nd,

Liberation Day, for the day that we

transform our economy. The problem with

this is not only in the basis of

tariffs, but what's actually happening

with international alliances that should

be a cause for everyone's concern.

Obviously, we already know the basics.

We know that we're expecting 25% tariffs

on vehicles, vehicle components,

although there's a 30-day delay for some

of the components, lumber, which could

affect things like toilet paper or

pharmaceuticals. to be determined what

happens there. We know that Japan is

quote weighing every option and Canadian

uh you know PM Mark or to be potentially

elected Mark Carney will quote a fight a

UF US US tariffs with our own retalatory

tariffs to inflict quote maximum impact

against the United States with minimal

impact against Canadians. France says

the only choice is to raise tariffs

themselves and harm both economies. The

European Union is going to safeguard

their interest. Mexico wants to beg for

preferential treatment probably because

they're going into recession. And the UK

plans to retaliate at the same time as

now all of a sudden we have to be

worried about Crank. this block of

countries, China, Russia, Iran, and

North Korea with an economy the size of

the European

Union aggregating together and

potentially using their might to counter

the strength of not just Europe, but

also the United States. And so, there's

a lot going on here. This week is a lot

more than just April 2nd and this

announcement of tariffs. It's really

what happens as a result of the

fundamental transformation of Trump

doubling down on this idea that we went

too small in the first administration.

We regret listening to people who told

us to go for smaller tariffs during the

first Trump administration. Let's now

make bigger, more aggressive moves.

These are the talks that are going on

inside of the Trump White House. Just

this weekend, White House leaks are

suggesting that quote, "He has also said

he thinks he made mistakes in allowing

advisers to talk him out of bigger

tariffs and signaling to his staffers

that he wants even more aggressive

tariffs as an ongoing source of federal

revenue. not a one-time negotiated

solution that lowers tariffs elsewhere

and goes back to free trade, but rather

doubles and triples down on the idea

that no, no, no, tariffs are going to be

a source of revenue. Of course, the

sales pitch is, hey, if we have enough

revenue, then maybe 93% of Americans who

make under $150,000 per year don't even

have to file a tax return because there

won't be any kind of taxation. And

there'll be so much winning again that

everybody will get a $5,000 Doge

dividend check, which given that 80% of

Americans can't afford a $1,000 oopsy

dupes that pops up, that would cover

about five oopsy dupsies, which is a

good amount of money. But the problem

is, what are we creating in terms of

international alliances? I personally

have been worried about what I jokingly

call NAFTA. It's I haven't thought of

any good acronym for this, but basically

this coalition of countries like Canada,

Mexico, European countries, basically

the entire European Union, all bonding

together to create a uh sort of trade

block that has free trade amongst them,

but taxes trade with America. And it's

also possible that this group could

actually partner with countries like

China because China, they're doing the

opposite of the United States right now.

They realize that 2022 was a pretty

significant slowdown, recessionary

period of time for them. And so they're

stimulating their way out. They're

looking to stimulate just like we did in

2009 with a cash for clunkers cars

program or even do cell phone tradein

programs. Uh these are all

considerations to basically get the

Chinese consumer spending again. But the

point is it's the exact opposite of what

we have here, which is let's get the

government to spend less. Now, I'm not

picking sides. I'm simply giving you the

facts. Not only is China considering

these stimulative measures, but they're

also raising their hand saying, "Hey,

who wants to do free trade with China?

We're available. We'd love to do free

trade with you. No need to worry about

tariffs. If you free if you freely trade

with us, we will freely trade with you."

Uh, and this is sort of a a very

different message from what we're

getting from the Trump administration,

which is, nah, you know what? We

actually might want to even go back to

talk around a universal tariff. This is

something that was briefly floated and

hasn't gotten a lot of attention, but

now White House leakers are suggesting

it's back. The idea or the prospect of a

universal tariff that applies as sort of

an entrance fee to open the door to

trade with America is coming. Uh, and

really what typically tariffs do is they

increase costs for uh, goods and service

suppliers, but they also increase costs

for consumers. Now, how much of that

actually shows up in inflation in the

face of a deflationary environment? You

know, that's all a discussion for

debate. But what's more important is

we're already starting to see a unified

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In

fact, China this morning said something

that should scare you. China posted or

Chinese a you know a Chinese statebacked

news group posted that in response to

the Hong Kong group GK Hutchinson

planning to sell ports near the Panama

Canal to Black Rockck. They made a post

saying this would be like handing a

knife to the enemy. Now that post was

quickly deleted, but Reuters picked it

up immediately and posted about it and

said that China is basically showing

their hand here a little bit saying

don't give America that weapon of the uh

you know Panama Canal that is giving a

knife to the US and they are the enemy.

And so you have to start thinking to

yourself whether that little example

there is what was intended or not. The

post is deleted now so it's hard to

know. You have to remember that there is

an east versus west situation in the

global geopolitical space that you have

to think about when it comes to war. Now

usually the west has been very united.

The United Kingdom, the European Union

led by the industrial countries like

France and Germany and of course

supported by the others Spain, Italy,

Greece doesn't matter. Canada, Mexico,

the United States, the United Kingdom

altogether have usually worked in

coordination with countries like Japan

and South Korea to counter the threat of

North Korea, China, uh, Russia. But what

we're doing now through tariffs is we're

actually basically putting up a middle

finger to our European allies and to our

Canadian allies, to some extent, our

Mexican allies, but also potentially our

Japanese allies. All of the long-term

alliances that we have built and the

sort of the coalition of the West are

falling apart in part due to these

tariff concerns. Now, of course, that is

an opinion. Who knows? Maybe maybe

everything is secretly still totally

fine. But here are some of the facts.

China has a mutual defense treaty

with North Korea. Iran and North Korea,

they have a relationship that is one

considered of um how should you put it?

Friendship and cooperation. So, we know

North Korea and Iran get along. We know

China and North Korea get along. Russia

and China, they have what's called a no

limits friendship. Russia and Iran

supported the Assad regime together.

Iranian manufacturers manufacture drones

in Iran and in Russia for Russian use

against Ukraine.

Beyond this, you have to remember that

all of them together have interests in

standing up to the interests of the

United States. North Korea has sent

12,000 soldiers and weapons to Russia.

The Russia Ukraine war is galvanizing

supply chains and increasing trade

between crank members. It's also leading

to more of a ddollarization. This dd

dollararization is extremely evident

given that when you look at imports and

exports and in terms of what currency is

being used the vast majority of it used

to be the US dollar vast majority of

that trade used here I'll show you on

screen used to consist of US dollars you

know the red here being the Chinese yuan

or the remenbby system you've got the

Russian ruble here and the dollar and

euro here in this light gray and you can

see the dollar and euro used to be 20 to

25ish% % or sorry is now a 20 to 25ish%

but it used to be somewhere around 55 to

80%. So the United States and Europe are

getting squeezed

out of Crink. And see, one of the ideas

that we could sort of use to minimize uh

some of this sort of Russian integration

with China is by striking a deal with

Russia and separately a deal with China.

So we can strengthen our relationship

with these individual members in

opposition to countries like Iran.

But we need to do that sooner rather

than later. But what's actually

happening is we're pissing off China

more with the moves in the CA Panama

Canal. And I'm not taking a side as to

whether or not we should or should not

have more international security in

different parts of the world such as the

Panama Canal or off of Greenland. I'm

not making an opinion on simply

providing a fact that China's pissed

about it and it's probably driving the

relationship between the United States

and China further apart. But what's also

happening is when you look at Greenland,

Russia is somewhat freaking out over

this because as we know Donald Trump

pitches Greenland as necessary for well

frankly international security. And so

what is Russia saying? They're going to

increase their troop presence in the

polar regions of the Arctic to increase

their national security efforts. And

remember, these are not small countries

that we're talking about. When you

combine the GDP of China, North Korea,

Iran, and Russia, you have an economy

that's equivalent in size to

Europe. In addition to that, when we

look at our economy with Europe, we look

really good. Hey, now we're twice the

size of Crink. But if we look at our

economy versus again my phrase NAFTA,

Canada, Mexico, the European Union,

Japan, South Korea, them uniting against

us. Well, now you have this sort of

three-party system that actually makes

the United States net much weaker than

where we have been in the past. Now, a

lot of this relates very much to

Ukraine. So you have to incorporate

Ukraine into this because frankly South

Korea just helped squeeze Ukraine out of

Russia. But what's also happening is

thei is the Ukrainians are getting

pressured into really what's considered

an unappealing deal to Ukraine because

we already know that Ukraine does not

trust Russia. Right now there has been a

temporary ceasefire that has been

accepted along with agreements that

there are going to be continued

negotiations. Certainly a far cry from

the war is going to be over in 24 hours.

But those of us that were paying

attention knew that was just marketing.

I'm not justifying it. I'm simply saying

it was Fugazi from the first time we

heard it. And it still is. Russia right

now is seizing opportunities against

Ukraine, though, demanding re-entrance

to Swift while basically agreeing to a

ceasefire in the Black Sea. But this a

small give up for the demands that

Russia is making, especially since the

Ukrainian minerals deal basically thrown

up into the air. And now there's talk

about the United States demanding

Ukraine sign a security deal where the

United States guess what provides no

security. The only part that's has

anything to do with security in the deal

is the United States gets control of the

minerals and energy and oil inside of

Ukraine. Now it would look like a

partnership with 50% of profits going to

Ukraine and 50% to the United States and

sort of a way of repaying the United

States for their aid. But the United

States would appoint three out of five

board members and the United States

would have full veto power. So basically

the United States would have 100%

control even though technically only

receiving about 50% of the dividends

while not providing security guarantees

for the Ukrainians that they would

actually aid and support the Ukrainians

in the event Russians defaulted on their

pledges, which is exactly what the

Ukrainians are afraid is going to

happen.

Now, Donald Trump is golfing with the

president of Finland, which is probably

just going to continue to galvanize uh

Putin's interest in deploying more

troops above Greenland because, well,

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provided. Now, going back to ice

breakers, what Finland is actually doing

is they're telling you, look, we'll give

you more ice breakers. We want

coordination and partnership with the

United States. And what Donald Trump is

saying is, yep, good. We're going to

need them because we're going to be

present in the polar regions more. And

that's why Russia is saying, well, so

will we then. So, I want you to think

for a moment. This liberation week is

much more than just tariff liberation.

This idea that other people are going to

pay for our debts. It sounds really nice

in sort of an optimistic, you know,

glorious scenario where everybody could

not have to pay or file an income tax

under $150,000 of income, which would be

fantastic for a lot of folks. But from a

practical nature, we would probably have

to see tariffs in excess of 25 to 30%

across the board on almost all trade uh

products to see the amount of revenue

that we would need to be able to offset

those tax revenues. Now, sure, we could

also cut government spending, but you

know, we've got some more work to do

with Doge. So, let's see how it goes.

Might have a lot more work to do to get

to those levels because remember, it's

not just cutting the expenses once. you

have to cut them over and over and over

again, which means the idea of free

trade anytime soon under Trump might

actually be further out than we're

expecting. And you're seeing a lot of

Wall Street analysts finally waking up

to realizing this is not just a

negotiating tactic anymore. Donald Trump

truly sees this as a way to increase

revenues for uh the United States

economy, for the United States taxpayer,

and also bring manufacturing jobs to

America. The problem is the time that it

takes to get those manufacturing jobs to

America and to somehow guarantee that

those jobs that are created are actually

still going to be competitive on a

global scale on an international scale

when other factories in let's say China

are facing deflation or willing to do

things for a tenth of the cost that we

can do them here then we really have to

ask ourselves are we setting up America

to be internationally competitive or are

we propping up a vision of an

all-American American future that is

really on a toothpick foundation that

collapses or worse collapse is just

under the mere uncertainty of all of

that. Now, I don't necessarily think

that the United States is going to

collapse anytime soon. And I'm not

trying to make this seem like, oh my

gosh, a World War II sort of issue. But

when you start putting all these pieces

of the puzzle together and we start

realizing these investment decisions or

announcements that are being made from

corporations are really just a way to

bend the knee to Trump and they're not

actually a sign of true investment, at

least not anytime soon. Because why

would you in the face of all this

uncertainty? Why not wait? So of course

that's what they'll do. Uh and

ultimately what you're doing is creating

the conditions which have in many parts

already been present. So I should say

you're accelerating the conditions for a

recession which unfortunately would be

substantially worse for people as many

more millions potentially tens of

millions of people more lose their jobs

and overall revenues stagnate or

collapse at many businesses. Remember,

over half of jobs in America are created

by the small the small business, maybe

another 15 to 20% by medium-sized

businesses. A lot of these businesses

are coming under severe strain due to

debt, high interest payments, stagnating

revenues, and a slowing cyclical

economy. The reason we call it cyclical

is because guess what? Goes up and it

goes down. It usually doesn't go from up

to slow and then back up again. But who

knows, maybe that'll happen. The CBO

doesn't think so. With our debt to GDP

likely to reach 107% in 2029, exceeding

our 1940 peak and then rising to 156%

debt to GDP by 2055. That was some news

that we just got out this morning. Yeah.

Well, technically it was yesterday, but

anyway, a lot of folks actually saw it

this morning and read and researched it

this morning. But anyway, uh when you

think about Liberation Day this week, uh

April 2nd, don't just think about the

retalatory tariffs. I want you to think

about our international

relationships with all of these other

countries and how critical they are in

standing up to crank. Why not advertise

these things that you told us here? I

feel like nobody else knows about this.

We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber,

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.