Sell Everything: The Market Bottom is COMING. Mark THIS Date.

the collapse of the United Kingdom might

spread to countries like Japan who's

just had to intervene into its currency

markets we've got the Netherlands with

much more pension fund debt than the

United Kingdom people like Michael burry

are calling for another 50 crash Jamie

dimon of Chase says we're just going

through the other half of the hurricane

that part is still ahead of us we've got

calls almost daily of another 20 to 30

percent decline in the stock market

coming from whether it's a black rock or

Ray dalio all of them cohesively arguing

that more pain is to come even hedge

fund managers like Bill Ackman are

calling for more pain to come and a lot

of this pain is driven by the 10-year

treasure yield which of course is driven

by the actions of the Federal Reserve

and while over the last few days we've

seen some initial talk about when the

Federal Reserve is expected to give us

their November 2nd 75b hike then maybe a

50 BP hike and then maybe a 25 at the

beginning of next year to finally a no

hike position as we finally wait for

services inflation largely driven by the

inflation of rents which take like six

to nine months to actually start seeing

downsides well folks we know that a lot

of the short-term rallies we might be

seeing in the stock market could be just

that short term bear Market rallies and

while we haven't seen large capitulation

yet more pain could still be ahead and

the question really then is when do

treasure yields Peak relative to when

the Federal Reserve pivots and how does

that line up with our market today so in

other words can we look at history and

try to understand hmm

when the FED has pivoted in the past

even though today they're going to be or

this Market they'll be pivoting for a

different reason right in this market

they'll be pivoting for basically

responding to inflation coming down

which is great because if we didn't have

inflation we wouldn't be going into a

recession this is a Fed forced recession

to drive inflation down we've been

talking about this on this channel since

January

and so while there are differences it's

worth looking at history to see can

treasure yields give us a hint in terms

of when they might Peak relative to the

fed's hiking cycle and does that give us

a little bit of insight in terms of when

to potentially buy treasury bonds when

is the bottom for the treasury's market

to where it's time to finally get into

TMF like the triple leverage treasury

fund maybe it's time to take the money

from my startup house hack which if

you're an accredited investor you could

join just go to househack.com make sure

you join by October 31st and you can get

more details Again by how at

househack.com but anyway we're going to

take our funding and throw them into

treasuries as well when when is

potentially the peak of yields and while

not always directly correlated the stock

market often suffers when treasury

yields rise because the risk premium for

the stock market changes in other words

if you're expecting a seven percent

return on the stock market why would you

take the risk on the stock market if you

could get a four and a half percent

return on a 10-year Treasury and if

you're living in a state like California

you're exempt from California state

taxes for those treasury bonds so you're

really getting a a tax affected return

of closer to five percent investing in a

treasury why bother taking the risk for

an extra two and a half percent or two

percent in the stock market when you

could get essentially a similar five

percent in the treasury's market it's

absolutely insane doesn't make sense

especially if there's potentially

another 20 downside in the markets so

what kind of research do we have today

well today we have research from

Barclays and it gives us a little bit of

an idea as to the timing of when we

might actually see yields Peak which I

actually think is good for two reasons

one the stock market but also two it'll

probably give us an indicator of peak

pain for the real estate market which is

critical for house hack all right let's

go ahead and jump over so

here's that chart 10-year yields have

started to Rally only two to three

months prior to the end of the cycle now

when they say yields I really think they

mean 10-year bonds they say that in my

opinion in a little bit of a confusing

way but it makes sense when we actually

look at the chart so let's understand

the chart a little bit and try to

understand how much could treasure

yields actually go down all right so

let's do this together

first what you want to know is that the

black line is the average and I think

it's worth looking at the black line but

it's also worth looking at 1983 because

that's a previous time where we saw a

treasure yield Skyrocket because the Fed

was fighting inflation right so I like

the dark blue line I like the black line

most because it's the average so let's

go ahead and see what we have you can

see those treasure yields really spiking

a lot in that dark blue line because we

were fighting inflation right and so

what's fascinating is the fall of

treasuries

10 that is yields yields tend to go down

bond prices tend to go up about two to

three months before the end of the cycle

and you could see that roughly here

where almost everything kind of starts

trending down right all of those years

start trending down you get sort of the

black starts trending down over here the

average and when do we think that might

be well if we think that the federal

reserve's final rate hike will be in

March of 2023 which is the current

expectation that rates are going to go

up to March Peak out and then start

flattening or maybe potentially rotating

down then if Peak is March March Oops

There You Go March represents t 0.

January would be two months prior to

that so we might actually see a peak of

treasure yields and a peak of mortgage

rates sometime around January and

December which if right now we're over

here in October it means we potentially

especially as we fight inflation more we

could still see a rise in Treasure

yields we saw that in 84 and 83 we saw

that over here and sort of the average

by the black line so we still have some

Rising yields ahead of us so maybe

there's not according to this trap

necessarily the biggest rush to get into

treasuries yet unless of course we think

the FED is going to stop raising rates

in January then we would probably hit a

peak in November but right now the

market seems to be pricing in that we're

looking at some kind of peak in March

for the FED hikes that means a January

Peak for treasury yields and it's

possible that by January December

January we could hit something

remarkable like a five percent treasure

yield which would be amazing because if

househack puts 25 million dollars into

five-year treasure or five percent

treasuries I mean we'll be making over

1.1 million dollars for a year doing

nothing which is absolutely insane uh

and again my my goal with house hack is

to make sure we do the best uh for our

investors because that's that's the most

important thing and my reputation is on

the line for that so how much do yields

then fall uh you know six months later

so maybe by August September of 2023 how

much could we expect yields to fall and

how much of a heads up could that give

us for the real estate market right well

what's fascinating here is I drew these

little pink lines at the 50 basis point

Decline and the 100 basis point decline

so if we hit a peak of over here let's

say five percent it may be over here

where the zero line is something like uh

four and a quarter percent right let's

go ahead and draw that here let's say

that this peak is 4.25 percent right

here okay so then we would expect that

by August and September right here five

to six to seven months later we would be

somewhere over here in this region and

that would represent somewhere between a

50 to 100 basis point decline so let's

call it 75 basis points that means we

might see 10-year treasuries still

sitting around three and a half percent

unfortunately when the 10-year treasury

was sitting around three and a half

percent we still had mortgage rates in

the neighborhood of six and a half

percent and if we end up trending with

high mortgage rates and high treasury

yields like this for all of 2023 and

potentially into 2024 the real estate

market is going to suffer quite

substantially now I hope that you take

advantage of the opportunity to build

your wealth by learning and getting

educated in real estate via the links

down below and the courses on building

your wealth through real estate

investing in Stock Investing but what

this thing here is what this beautiful

thing here says is that we have the

luxury of time there's really no

potential rush because it's not likely

that even though treasury yields went up

kind of like they did over here in that

light blue line where they skyrocketed

because of the disaster of the fed's

quick hikes it looks like they kind of

more slowly bleed out like a meme stock

in that it could take all of 2023 to

just go down a measly 75 basis points

off of 4.25 now remember they could go

up to five percent but that's that's

more of like this sort of remarkable uh

gyration over here that I don't think

will last but the point is the odds of

of based on this historical chart us

seeing treasury yields under three

percent again anytime soon seems

remarkably low which means the pain for

Real Estate is likely to last for really

years to come but it also tells us a

little bit about the stock market that

the stock market if it aligns with Peak

treasure yields in other words when the

stock market is at bottom treasury

yields are at the highest the bottom of

the stock market according to this chart

will either be two months before January

when the FED stops hiking rates or two

months before March I'm leaning more

towards two months two to three months

before March that would be somewhere

around January maybe late December but

probably January in my opinion for some

form of a bottom now I don't really want

to call that because quite frankly we

could be at a bottom right now there's a

lot of stress that usually happens right

before an election but I don't think

we're necessarily in a position where we

could really have sustained bear Market

rallies until we really get closer to

that pivot phase generally the bottom of

the market aligns pretty closely with

when the FED finally does pivot now in

case you're confused by that because you

saw a chart on the Federal Reserve

pivoting and how stock markets have

actually Fallen more what I want you to

do is go expand the description in the

links Down Below open up the video where

I write the myth of the FED pivot and

watch that video it's a full explanation

for you and I think it's really

important and really educational to

watch and that's my goal is to bring you

perspective and education that others

aren't because I know it's easy to make

fear-mongering and clickbaity titles and

intros but if that fear-mongering

continues throughout a video and the

perspective is always just fear for your

fear it just becomes unrealistic my

belief in this Market is actually one

that the United States is going to have

a far superior success weathering this

recession compared to any other country

in the world and that's why our dollar

is so strong and I don't want to not be

investing in the United States I think

I'm going to look back in 10 years and

go I can't believe I started a housing

company at the bottom Market I can't

believe I threw everything I had into

the stock market at the bottom right and

it doesn't necessarily have to be right

at the bottom you just be sort of in

lower territories and I think that'll

pay off extremely fruitfully in the long

term so my thoughts thank you so much

for watching and good luck out there