sh*t

this video is brought to you by

streamyard professional live streaming

software that you can get by going to

metkevin.com streamyard all through your

web browser really awesome check it out

by going back kevin.com streamyard right

next to the link down below for the

amazing programs on building your wealth

and that's cyber kevin coupon code

because we're going to the cyber rodeo

today let's go you know i have to say

what's very interesting i've been kind

of frustrated about the fed just yapping

i mean we had the fomc meeting then they

had yap week and it's like oh my gosh

okay yeah week was really annoying then

yesterday we had brain art have to yap

and now we get the minutes coming out

today and it's like more and more

they're yapping it's just like oh my

gosh it hurts the stock market right but

but there's actually something

interesting coming along with it look

what's happening to the 10-year treasury

yield look over here

it has uninverted and it's now at a 10

basis point spread we go to the

five-year break even it's fall in a good

chunk and it's very stable so even

though the stock market is feeling

like some big pain right now their

yapping is actually kind of

accomplishing what they want they don't

want an inverted tend to they want

inflation expectations to come down

that's actually a good thing it's a sign

that the market in in a weird and

bizarre way believes that the fed is now

going to be more serious than they were

last year in 2021. listen to this crap

now i mean first of all let me just make

this very clear the market's been

pricing in seven to eight 25 basis point

hikes for i don't know

months now okay i mean we've gone from

january to now from pricing and you know

six hikes to eight hikes big deal it's

always been in that range right

personally i think we're gonna end up

seeing some form of a total of 10 to 17

25 basis point hikes it's crazy but but

i think they're going to stay with that

slow and methodical pace because that's

literally what brainard said she said

brandon she said not her name she said

methodical and uh and consistent oh

steady methodical and steady pace these

are words that jerome powell has used as

well and powell's referred back to the

early 2000s for hey

25 basis point hikes right but listen to

now what the suits are saying the suits

are now betting that the fed will

implement an additional 225 basis points

of rake hikes this year which isn't

possible unless they have at least two

50 bp hikes because there are only seven

uh seven well six more meetings uh so

anyway uh that means we could actually

have a year like

1994 which is what the one hawk over at

the fed is referred to mr bullard and

his uh his reference to 1994 is look we

can go

one basic like like one full percentage

point hike and then do 25 bp hikes

because we're so far behind the curve

and we can still have a soft landing

like we did in 1994 which at least

that's their argument although 1994 was

also coming out of the early 90s

recession and in fairness we're coming

out of kind of a recession now but we

did have this massive boom in between

this post coveted boom right so kind of

interesting but 1994 was also a pretty

dang brutal year for bond investors and

when we look at bonds

dude the last thing i want to buy right

now are bonds because they are just

their yields are literally going to

their the moon which uh basically means

if you buy bonds you're losing value the

underlying principle like crazy look at

the freaking 10 year this is insane it's

now

2.6

i get i've been complaining since this

thing was 1.7 that this thing's going to

three percent plus uh i don't know

probably in every freaking video now and

i still keep getting comments where

people are like there's no waves going

back to three percent there's no way

they're going to be able to push yields

that high like they did in the past

yeah they absolutely can there is no cap

in terms of how high they need to hike

and i think this is something that you

just have to buckle up for the markets

you have to buckle up for a lot of pain

coming from the fed now today's the fomc

minutes release date where we're

expecting to see how big of a taper

we're going to get in the past we've

done 90 billion dollars a month maybe

now we'll do as much of double because

brainerd came out and said we're gonna

we're gonna you know taper much more

rapidly than we did in the past that's

the same thing they told us in the

december meeting the december meeting

they said hey we got a lot more money uh

now that we owe

or that we've borrowed essentially yes i

think

we've got a shorter term duration we

need to run this balance sheet off

faster than we ever have before okay so

what so they come in with 180 uh billion

dollar a taper per month starting say

june or whatever

big freaking deal like with finally like

we would expect some policy

normalization right but obviously the

market is reacting to these 10 years

jumping uh and so i mean quite frankly

the easiest thing to do when it comes to

the stock market is just not look on

days like today but uh personally i'm

i'm i'm not unexpecting this kind of

stuff it kind of sucks though because i

do have some bets on arc oh well uh and

then obviously i've got big a big chunk

in like end phase and that thing's down

like five percent today bummer uh but

that's okay it's still up substantially

i mean look at it it's at 199 it's still

up like 80 points uh but anyway uh you

know it you know what what kind of bets

can you make in this environment well

you can make bets on on the vix like one

thing that i like to do

is uh you this right here is a sh the

short term vix uh shorting it

and uh when the vix skyrockets this

falls and so what you could actually do

is when this has like a large fall to

the downside you can buy this this svxy

and then sell it when that vix falls

again does the opposite of the fix it's

it's not uh i mean it's okay

the other one you could do is uv x y

and

this one moves with the vix as well so

just another way and sometimes what

people do is they'll actually buy calls

on this because when it jumps volatility

goes up at the same time as this goes up

which is obviously good for buying

calls right whereas the other one

volatility is going down not so great

for for buying calls

twitter's actually still surviving here

and so the oil stocks but

look the minutes are going to come out

we'll go through the minutes i'm not

super scared by the minutes i'm just

aware that we are going to have a lot of

fear

right before every time the fed does

anything and look at this folks on the

qqq we got rejected at 61.8 we literally

hung out at 50 for a minute and we're

right back to 38.2 i have not moved my

little triangle here i would not be

surprised if we got a retrace to 23.6

that's painful but these lines are

buying opportunities if you're long this

market in my opinion these lines are

buying ops i don't think we're gonna get

back to zero percent fit on just the fed

it would have to be like crisis further

crisis with ukraine or something so uh

anything here anything between 38 2 and

23 6 in my opinion probably looks like a

buying opportunity on the qqq uh

remember i said i was going to short qqq

if we got to the top third we actually

didn't make it to the top third

oh well it can't be perfect all the time

anyway thanks so much for watching good

luck out there stay strong and folks

we'll see in the next one bye