Warning: Nvidia Stock vs Apple Stock [Buy One, SELL One].

well don't sue me bro but in this video

you're going to learn some really big

and key differences between two very

massive investment opportunities we're

talking about3 trillion investment

opportunities Apple versus Nvidia and so

in this video I'm going to give you my

thoughts in terms of what I'm personally

doing with my portfolio when it comes to

Nvidia and maybe some things that you

ought to consider between the two

companies Nvidia and apple we'll also

talk valuation first we'll start a

little broad with what's going on

between between the AI spaces but I want

to give you a quick disclaimer don't

don't sue me bro this is just my opinion

this is not personalized Financial

advice and frankly it could be wrong but

I do also want to start by saying I've

been very bullish Nvidia I loaded up on

Nvidia originally back in November of

2022 as we sort of bottomed out I added

a bunch in the 400s obviously I wish I

uh had more EXP osure leading up to that

run oh well I took some gains then I got

back in a little higher but I'm glad I

did because obviously the company's done

extremely well the question now though

is what is a better opportunity going

forward hindsight analysis only does so

much and in this video I'll also go

through what Apple just transformed in

the AI space so this is really important

okay now something that we have to also

cover before we start is dang yes I did

make some money on an Apple trade today

I had a sweet sweet set of call options

on Apple today after that event

yesterday and yes we made 100K if you

want all my Buy sell alerts in the

stocks and psychology of money group

make sure you click that link down below

join me in the stocks and sight group

you get my course member live stream

analysis all my deep dive analyses that

I'm doing uh before we post about them

here if we even post them here we do a

lot of analysis there that doesn't make

it to the main Channel and I sell said

all my Buy sell alerts whether I make

money or I lose money you get it all

last week I had a rough week this week

let's just say it's starting out really

good I actually tweeted about the

options that I had and you could see I

had about $80,000 of exposure to to

Apple today so the options did really

really well so uh and that's after the

gain I mean this one was up 103 thou

103% that one was up 76% I go in and out

of them uh but anyway as always remember

past performance doesn't guarantee

future results and it's clear that if

you join you'll make money I just want

to be very clear about that the goal is

teaching and education so what's going

on with Nvidia well first we need to

know what this significant paper is that

just came out regarding Nvidia because

this is a risk factor for NVIDIA and all

of what we had presented by Apple is a

risk factor as well that is going to

compound a risk factor for NVIDIA let's

just be very clear though Nvidia is the

leader of the pack nobody stands in the

way way of nvidia's Mo Nvidia is a

company that I want long-term exposure

to I want Nvidia exposure not just

because of the innovation of the GPU

cycle that is we're going from the h100s

to the next levels to the black Wells to

the next levels thereafter which they're

already announcing getting on sort of

this one-year product refresh cycle we

know we're going from your sort of

typical dumb compute to AI compute

servers we already know all of that we

know we're on a new Innovative scurve

the question now is at what point does

that scurve Peter out and does it still

make sense to buy Nvidia now post spit

especially since the posts spit

performance of stocks historically is

good but in recent history has actually

not been that good consider over the

last 4ish years after Google stock split

uh on July 18th 2022 the stock was up 3%

over the next 3 days but then fell 10%

after Amazon stock split in 2022 it fell

21% after Apple stock split in August of

2020 it was up 10% at first and then

plummeted 20% and after tesel stock

split well that that one has just pretty

much been straight down but anyway the

six days thereafter it was down 12% so

stock splits don't necessarily mean in

the short term the stock is definitely

going to go up of course great companies

split their stock their earnings grow

and they keep going up in the longer

term so do I really want to bet against

Nvidia for the very long term no but

would I be willing to make a bet or a

trade between Nvidia and apple now

absolutely and the question that comes

down to everything for me is how much

actual GP GPU compute do we really need

picture this for a moment I want to draw

this for you before we get into this

study because I think it's going to be

um enlightening let's just say

if in March of

2023 to probably the 3 months thereafter

you have this bucket I'll call this the

uh

March and to let's call it July 2023 AI

the class of AI okay that's a good I

like it sort of like Navy Seals but it's

the class of AI okay and let's say you

have 1,000 people in the class of AI the

question that I have for you now is how

many people or how many companies rather

do we think is in the class of AI not

necessarily today but in the 2025 class

well my guess is we're probably going to

go down to somewhere between 50 to 100

in the class of AI which means if we're

building out server compute for the

class of a thousand assuming that

they're all going to maximize all their

compute because you and myself and

businesses instead of just trying the

one AI that we need we try five

different AIS so we're actually creating

five times the demand that we actually

ultimately need for AI well then what

happens is everybody buys AI chips

everybody overpays for the AI chips and

Nvidia goes to the moon and companies

that have nominal AI exposure like Dell

which is just a ripoff giving away

server Stacks doubles at stock valuation

uh AMD uh vertage

other companies like super micro

computer all the adjacents also end up

doing really well but is it actually

based on a fugazi set of demand now of

course not everybody got into AI day one

so of course that class theoretically

should grow to let's say 1,200 as more

people slowly trickle into the class

they show up late basically but does

that just push us to maybe a 60 to 20

class right maybe 20% more I don't know

this speculation obviously but the point

is that let's say the compute we need

for this basket over here is X okay so X

compute well the compute you need over

here in a more win or take most

environment you could even say that AI

will just boil down to five to six

different AI companies in the future

there'll still be a set amount of AI

demand but the point is you won't have

the duplicative training and the

duplicative inference as people test out

different AIS you're probably looking at

AI demand that's something like x

divided by

10 H and and then maybe you grow that by

like 10% a year right so you multiply it

by 1.1 now that's not supposed to look

like and remind you of your Calculus

class or your algebra class it's just

simply to say that demand is probably

substantially smaller than what we saw

in 20 23 for most

AI uh demands right now now a lot of

companies are still trying to build out

llms but even llm demand might not use

as much GPU compute as we think to train

new llms and this is going to get really

important in just a moment but the point

is as you go from the many to the few

you're going to reduce the amount of

demand that you have and then you'll

grow that reduced uh set because you

have people con consolidating the

products they're using they're probably

the best products of the bunch which are

the most efficient products and the E

most efficient products won't need uh

frankly as much compute power that's why

they're the best that's why they're the

most efficient products okay so so now

we've reduced our overall demand for

artificial intelligence is there any

evidence to back up that that is

happened well yes there actually is

Tesla delayed its delivery of h100s

because they say they don't have enough

room for the server Stacks but if they

really needed them they would have been

ready for the shipment reality is these

chips at Nvidia are so good that Tesla

as Elon himself says is no longer comput

constrained and we don't need as many

chips especially since the black Wells

are supposed to be 4X as fast as the

h100s you need 4X fewer

chips so if they introduced the h100

back in 2023 with the same strength as

the black well today you would need 4X

fewer of them which means You' have

potentially 1/4 of the AI chip revenue

for NVIDIA see where I'm going with this

as the competitors in the AI space

shrink demand Falls by virtue of a lack

of duplicative work yes it's still going

to grow AI demand is going to grow don't

worry about that that's what I'm saying

times 10% you're still going to get that

growth but this is something that is

made

worse by three different things one of

these is Matrix removal one of them is

caching one of them is

Apple Matrix removal Matrix matrices are

used in uh large language models they

are used used in conjunction with bias

weights and they're used inside of

neural Nets to compute uh a basically

likely outcome for something whether in

training or inference or

whatever there is a paper that just came

out uh from uh the University of

California Santa Cruz uh in conjunction

with Davis Davis is where my daughter

summer was by the way she's back home

really grateful for that she's beautiful

she was just out there smiling at me

she's so cute I love love walking out

there giving a big smooch uh anyway

scalable Matrix uh free basically

language modeling so here's basically a

paper suggesting can we get away from

using

matrices in uh language learning models

and uh here's what they find in their

abstract and we'll look at the

conclusion this is very very important

if you're either an Nvidia or an apple

investor because you're going to see

something that's going on here

and I'm wearing don't sue me bro because

I know there are a lot of people who see

this stuff that are like oh Kevin you

know you're just biased against a video

or whatever it's like no I'm I'm long

exposed to Nvidia but yeah I am hedging

myself in the short term and I'll show

you why take a look at this in this work

we showed that the matte mole which is

matrix multiplication models uh

basically typically use most of the GPU

performance so let's say you have 100

watts of power being used let's say the

matrices use like 90 watts of that power

so they're making the argument that a

lot of power of as a percentage uh

compute power actual energy that has

different implications as well goes into

Matt moles Matrix

multiplications okay interesting so what

experiment did they run well they ran an

experiment that says our experiments

show that a matte mole free so no

matrices model achieves performance on

par with state-of-the-art Transformers

that require far more memory during the

inference scale up in addition to that

we also provide a GPU efficient

implementation of this model which

reduces memory usage by up to 61% over

an unoptimized Baseline during

training in other words we can create

large language models using field

program

programmable Gateway arrays which are

quick for low power operations

especially mobile devices basically we

could use

fpgas instead of gpus and get quick

results with less energy consumption

which I want you to think about this for

a moment when somebody uses a computer

when you use GPT or Siri do you want a

damn pin wheel every time you're getting

an

answer of course not it's like when you

shoot a gun when you're playing rust and

and you're raiding your enemies do you

want a big lag latency time of course

not you want fast you want as little

latency as possible to maximize your

ability to make money or to succeed at

whatever it is you're doing sometimes

that could just be having a video load

while you're all alone I don't

know point is

regarding this as a competitor or or

something to Nvidia is it's a way of

saying hey if people can find more

efficient ways of running large language

models and the great big innovation

that's really come out of the latest AI

revolution has been frankly glorified

chat Bots that are really good don't get

me wrong they're great great sales

assistance and otherwise but outside of

generative AI these large language

models if you could run them off gpus

with less power less latency and less

cost then yeah people are going to do

that especially if the results are

similar in fact you could jump over to

the conclusion and you can see they say

by prioritizing the development and the

deployment of matte mole free

architectures as in architectures that

don't require as much of a GPU lift the

future of large language models will

only become more accessible efficient

and sustainable in other words as soon

as we get gpus out of our

life oh we can actually have more llms

and more competition which more

competition in llms puts even less or or

I should say puts companies like open AI

at risk uh for more competition and

let's just say I'm making this extreme

argument because obviously open AI could

use these matte mole free models as well

but let's just for Giggles say that uh

GPT is going to be 100% GPU based and a

competitor comes along and it's 0% GPU

and we're just going to say comp over

here and let's say this one is faster

and just as good as GPU GPT but you

don't have any pin Wheels well then GPT

will go bankrupt and the competitor will

succeed the competitor won't be using or

relying on those gpus which is bad for

NVIDIA interesting this is something

maybe we haven't thought of before now

obviously it's likely that GPT you know

open AI would adapt and use these matte

mole free models as well it's also

possible this paper is wrong but you may

not have thought yet that oh damn I

thought AI meant GPU which meant Nvidia

man that that's the far as I got that

that may have been your thesis but now

we actually have to go oh wait a minute

we can have GPU

free

AI messes the thesis up a little Kevin

what are you doing oh just waitting

until I get to the Apple part we're just

getting started okay what about cashing

risk that's risk number two the cashing

risk caching is basically a way of

saying hey for of the image generation

or video generation that or or just

quite frankly text generation that

people need a lot of that we don't

actually need to run to a GPU server a

GPU based server every time to operate a

result instead if a million people every

single year ask why George Washington

had wooden teeth let's just run that

calculation one time and then the other

999,000 999 times somebody asked about

George Washington's teeth we're just

going to feed them the same answer from

basically downloaded memory like a hard

drive like imagine downloading on a

future iPhone 50 GB of a GPT in

cyclopedia that has cached answers text

based answers for everything even

potentially canned uh uh image

generation or video

generations and then the only portion

you have to send to the GPU based cloud

is just what's different in the question

so then you can provide an answer that's

partly encyclopedia based in storage or

memory and the other that is based on

actual Cloud

compute okay that's another risk cashing

that's not like the cash in your pocket

that is c a c h e would be cash often

people think weapons cash um obviously

cash is what I'm trying to teach teach

everybody how to get more of that's why

I teach how to build wealth in the

courses on building your wealth link

down below we've got an expiring coupon

code tomorrow uh tomorrow is June 12th

it is CPI day in fed day big expiring

coupon code really hope that uh I could

keep positive performance going uh we

are up year today quite a bit this is

the p&l today you saw the trade sizes on

these two uh they weren't uh you know

they were less than this so so we did

really well uh coinbase was a little

larger but that was also not a

derivative play that was a um uh a share

position but uh but anyway check it out

link down below coupon expires tomorrow

again cannot guarantee uh or uh imply

that you're definitely going to make

money but the goal is to learn how to

make money and as much as possible see

we got a little disclaimer Banner

now okay

so if you have questions by the way

email us at staff kevin.com so now the

question becomes all right we have risks

to Nvidia we have Matrix remove Al which

is a GPU risk we have cashing risk which

is an Nvidia risk we have Nvidia that

trades at about a 3.5 Peg right now

which is a price to earnings growth

level which basically suggests that

their growth is going to slow to

somewhere around 13 to 15% over the next

four years on average per year that

you'll go from basically this doubling

to to a slowing to potentially even

negative so you get this average 13 to

14% growth and there's a real risk that

those growth expectations even in those

years are too high that those growth

expectations might actually go or the

actual growth numbers might actually go

negative way earlier which would make

nvidia's valuation even higher which is

somewhat scary because it's already kind

of rich now it is a cash generating

Behemoth it makes a lot of

money but what about Apple and what is

Apple doing that could potentially hurt

a lot

Nvidia introducing on device artificial

intelligence now you might think to

yourself okay on iPhone who cares but

wait a second you don't like latency we

already talked about latency and you're

not going to like latency on your phone

I hate when GPT pin wheels or Siri has

to think it should be fast with the

fastest highest quality product is going

to be a product that can answer my

question with an on device neural or

language large language model or

whatever basically AI on the device if

Apple can protect perfect which we don't

know that they will be able to but if

they can perfect on device artificial

intelligence forget about upgrade cycle

for a moment for apple and what that

means for introducing new iPads laptops

desktops and phones but what I want you

to think of for a moment is if Apple

does on device guess who's going to do

on device next

Android will because do you want to buy

an Android that always sends your data

to the cloud that's not good for privacy

that's not good for operational security

offsec and it's certainly not good for

efficiency because you're waiting for

the pin wheel so if Apple does on device

then Android will probably do on device

which means probably all Hardware in the

future will do on device which means in

the future iPads will do all the on

device work this is the iPad by the way

I got because I had uh I I made a bet on

uh X on Twitter follow me there if you

don't already real me Kevin but I made a

bet if I made trading profits on a

certain trade I'd buy a new iPad even

though I don't need it then I bought it

and then I realized that classic apple

move the apple pencil uh doesn't

actually work with uh with the new one

the apple pencil Pro you have to get the

new Apple pencil Pro and I'm like of

course of course but anyway so the

iPhone the Android transitions the iPad

transitions what's going to transition

next well of

course the laptops are going to

transition next to on device artificial

intelligence which if the laptops at

Apple transition then the competitors

will transition which means the PCS may

also

transition now PCS won't use Apple's M1

chips where you have sort of the

built-in Graphics into you know the M1

chip uh and the neural net built into

there PCS might still use AMD you know

490s or or whatever I mean these are

these are fantastic chips let's be real

okay I'm not going to play video games

on uh a Mac it's just not going to

happen I'm going to play video games on

a delicious PC because well after all

they're really good in fact I love these

things so much you can actually see

right on screen here that I got my 4090

on this computer that I use when I show

a PC so I've got a lot of these I think

I've got three or four computers that I

own that have the 490s I love GeForce

experience I love Nvidia I think they're

a great company they have great products

and they're just good they're best of

class but that's for video gaming we're

talking AI here and what is Apple

potentially going to be able to pull off

well first of all if we don't need

gpus to create

large language models because of the

matric risk if that ends up working out

and then Apple uses on device artificial

intelligence to do something which

honestly I was blown away by I almost

had tears in my eyes during the presser

of the Apple event which was oh we're

going to let you take themes from your

memories or your pictures or video or

whatever that you took on a vacation and

then ask the phone to basically create a

custom video out of it we'll throw music

on for it we'll edit it together for you

and you could show off this movie that

was custom made for you using your own

pictures and video on device so it's not

leaving your device using the compute

power on your

phone that's insane like I wish I had

the patience to go through and make

collages of all my vacations because I

would have many of them that would be

really fun and I'd be very grateful for

that I love children and I love

vacations but if the phone can do that

on device then that's a huge competitive

advantage over me creating a generic

piece of imagery or video that I don't

really care about it's not personal now

obviously the onice aspects that we

learned about from Apple some of them

were great as well such as artificial

intelligence to let you know which of

the uh notifications you get are

pressing right now while Kevin is

filming a video versus not pressing

while Kevin is busy filming a video you

know little things like tldrs or summary

or summaries or the calculator app or

the notes and being able to make

modifications these are great these are

really functional useful applications uh

making Siri better finally these are

great applications of AI but we have to

go Way Beyond this idea of a product

refresh cycle for a moment and how

useful some of these services are going

to be as disappointed I was in the event

up in the first half the second half was

actually pretty

good we actually have to look and say

wait a minute

is there a chance that the next AI play

is not Nvidia that the next AI play is

actually Apple now Apple also has a peg

of about three and a half so their

valuation is ironically similar but if

nvidia's valuation is based on growth

rates that are too high then their PEG

ratio is going to go up as their growth

rates come down and if apple is being

thought of as a dead company that

doesn't innovate then their growth rates

are way too low

which means their PEG ratio is probably

going to come down so in my estimates

Nvidia probably has a PEG ratio now of

five and apple probably has a PEG ratio

of closer to 1 and a half to

two in other words people expect this

for NVIDIA and that for Apple well that

changed yesterday thanks to WWDC 2024

but it didn't just change Apple's

trajectory

it also creates real concerns for

NVIDIA so what's the trade here's my

trade short term I'm short

Nvidia now that's in a trading portfolio

I've also reduced my long-term exposure

to Nvidia I've brought i' I've roughly I

think a little bit more than haved my

Nvidia exposure right around 120 bucks a

share that's $1,200 uh post split or

presplit rather so I've substantially

reduced my exposure to Nvidia don't get

me wrong I still think they have PP

pricing power I still think Nvidia has a

lot of pricing power don't get me wrong

I just think their valuation has gotten

them carried away so it's worth reducing

exposure to them at the same time it is

worth in my opinion

maintaining pretty high exposure to

Apple because this could be the next

sort of AI play that everybody forgot

in fact if you recall I made a video on

Apple Ai and people got mad at me people

got so mad meet Kevin Apple artificial

intelligence let's take a look at this

okay so we made a video called leaked

Apple documents reveal AI Siri plans

Apple artificial intelligence that's

what I called it back then a AI I should

have put it together that they were

going to call it Apple intelligence it's

kind of smart uh but anyway you can see

that video yourself here and I actually

really encourage you to check it out

because you're going to see that on

April 2nd I was talking about how I

wanted to buy more Apple stock on April

April 2nd and go back for a moment to

where April 2 is April 2nd is right here

Apple Stock's $170 per share from then

to now Apple stock is up about 21 to 22%

% and it's only been about 2 months and

2 weeks here's a video that only got

that got less than 50,000 views that

talked about a lot of what I talked

about in this video where they're going

to do something incredible on device and

it's going to be a game

changer so I was transparent about it

then I'm transparent about it now I

think this is a big deal now uh so my

take is

uh longer term less explo exposure

Nvidia so let's say if I'm like 5%

Nvidia 10% Apple I let those ride for

long term this is not personalized

Financial advice I want to be really

clear about that when I give these like

allocations and stuff this this is not

for you disclaimer not personalized

advice this is very clearly just

theoretical and what I'm personally

doing uh with with my own money where I

want my own money to be I personally

like investing via an actively managed

ETF that I don't have to you know sort

of um how should I say uh worry about

too much concentration risk in because

there are legal compliance issues with

those uh which is nice you can't get

like overly heavy in one

thing so um that's my Nvidia Apple

thesis longer term but shorter term I'm

just going straight short Invidia

through options you could go out 3 weeks

60 days 90 days whatever ever you decide

ultimately is for you again this isn't

personalized advice um but that's what

I'm thinking uh and then the same thing

for Apple call options shorter term 21

days to 60 days somewhere in that range

because what I think you'll see is

you'll see money flow out of Nvidia and

into

Apple it's just a thesis I have it it

could be very very wrong uh but this

also worth noting brings up wait a

minute what about energy usage remember

how everybody's like oh energy usage is

going to Skyrocket because of AI data

centers in fact one of my team members

brought me an entire research piece and

they're like oh Kevin like our investing

in data center is a big play you know

there there are a lot of people saying

energy use is going to explode because

of these these chips and um it's funny

because I I I said I don't think so and

they're like wait what what are you

doubting AI I go no like what what do

you mean then I go all it's going to

take is a more efficient chip that does

four times the work at a fraction of the

energy

output and the fact of the matter is

human productivity just isn't going

to go up at the same rate that energy

costs for artificial intelligence go

down or energy demand goes down like for

example let's say creating an app

through artificial intelligence is going

to take me a 100,000 units of power you

know kilowatts let's call it kilowatt

hours okay

is is um and that's that's at today's

level okay well if I could get that down

to 25,000 Kow of power am I going to

make four apps no I only need one okay

maybe I'll have a second do you see what

I'm saying okay but then I'm only at

50,000 kilowatt hours of use that's less

than the prayer estimate so I think

that's overblown that's my opinion again

I could be wrong sorry I like I know

sometimes people like Kevin you're so

disclaimer heavy and like I just I

really just want to be very clear that

like I think I try to give really good

perspective we did an amazing course

member live stream tomorrow this morning

probably one of the best course member

live streams with a big trade we've got

going uh that I think I've ever done uh

it's really good I encourage you to

watch it and we'll see how the trade

plays out but we got a huge one cooking

and uh I'm really enthusiastic so check

out the courses on Building Wealth link

down below expiring coupon code hits uh

tomorrow and uh if you have questions

email us at staff atm.com thanks so much

for watching we'll see you next one

goodbye and good luck I not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your

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Securities potentially including those

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