Why Jerome Powell JUST Crashed Markets [Fed FOMC].

is pissed holy smokers the market is

pissed which is weird because drone

power literally just declared quote it's

pretty clear we've avoided a recession

you'd think the market would rally on

that but instead this is what the market

did the NASDAQ decided to start tanking

by 2% Bitcoin decided to sell off by

about 2,000 Tesla decided to sell off by

about

62% what the H double hockey sticks is

going on JP basically just declared

Victory he literally said we've avoided

a recession now In fairness he did say

the fed's not allowed to own Bitcoin and

we're not looking to change that law to

have a strategic Bitcoin Reserve but

that frankly came out of nowhere

anywhere we did hear Drome Powell tell

us that inflation is just a technical

issue that we're really in a good place

and that he quote feels good and he

expects another good year so I'm kind of

curious is the market pulling an inverse

Kramer on Powell j po goes no recession

I expect another good year things are

great Ding and the market just tanks

what's happening because pow certainly

doesn't seem concerned about inflation

even though his committee members seem

pretty concerned about inflation to

where they're only projecting 50 basis

points of cuts in 25 and another 50

basis points of cuts in 2026 which

basically is a whole chunk slower than

what we were previously expecting we

thought we'd get four Cuts next year

we're down to two that's it it's a lot

slower and a lot of folks were actually

thinking we'd get even more Cuts in 2025

as the economy slows so what gives you

got japal saying inflation's just a

technical issue you've got rate Cuts

getting slowed down is there some kind

of warning that Powell gave us here

that's starting to freak markets out

well I think the answer to this is yes

now I'm going to preface this because I

uh saved this particular spot uh but I

want to preface this by saying that jpow

was not overly concerned at this point

that the labor market is having major

issues but he did say some things that

made some people sort of scratch their

heads a little bit and I think it's

worth playing that clip as long as I can

keep this clip and not screw it up let's

see if I could do this correctly listen

to this clip here he does later suggest

that this isn't a big deal but just

listen to the hints in this portion

hopefully again I was able to save this

live at the right time this is why

markets really started selling off so I

hate to kind of leave you hanging on

that uh but this is what he said he said

the downside risks to the labor market

appear to have diminished but it's

cooling further in a gradual and orderly

way we don't think we need any further

cooling it's softer the labor market is

softer than before the pandemic job

that's not good right job creation is

well below the level that would keep the

unemployment rate constant in other

words things are worse in the labor

market than they were in 2019 and the

unemployment rate will probably keep

trending up a little bit surveys are

showing a much much cooler labor market

now than they were showing in

2019 now he does say that things are

still gradually Cooling and later he

clarifies that maybe this isn't that big

of a deal because after all you're only

in a position of seeing about maybe a

tenth or so of uh the unemployment rate

going up every other month so we kind of

cast aside the concerns about the labor

market but this commentary is really

when the market started freaking out a

little bit about the labor market it was

really when he was responding to the

question from uh Mrs SMC over at the New

York Times that's when Markets started

getting a little bit nervous why

officials think it's appropriate to cut

rates at all in 2025 if inflation is

expected to remain firm throughout the

year and what would you expect at this

point the timing might look like what a

January cut potentially be possible or

does a pause next month seem more likely

listen to his labor market talk here so

let me start by saying why we why we cut

today and then and then move to 2025 so

I would say today was a was a closer

call um but we decided it was the right

call because we thought it was uh the

best decision to Foster uh achievement

of both of our goals maximum employment

and price stability we see the risks as

two-sided moving too slowly and

needlessly undermine economic in the

labor market or move too quickly and

needlessly undermine our progress on

inflation so we're trying to steer

between those two risks and on balance

we decided to go ahead with a further

cut and I'll give you some details on

why downside risks to the labor market

do appear to have diminished but the

labor market is now looser than pre-

pandemic and it's clearly still cooling

further so far in in a gradual and

orderly way uh we don't think we need

further Cooling in the labor market to

get inflation down to 2% job creation is

now well below the level or certainly

below the level that would hold

unemployment constant the job finding

rate is low and declining and other

measures such as surveys of workers and

businesses quits things like that

broadly show a a much cooler labor

market than there was that we had in

2019 it's still quite gradually cooling

uh so we we keep an eye on that

inflation we see that story as still

broadly on track and and I'll tell you

okay so broadly on track with inflation

but there were some concerns recently

regarding inflation blah blah blah blah

blah I'm obviously not going to replay

you the whole press conference but think

about that for a moment he basically

just told you for right now yeah things

are definitely softer than they've used

to be but maybe this could still be

Gucci there is a lot of uncertainty

there but what's interesting is the Fed

didn't want to show you that

uncertainty in fact let me show you this

this is the summary of economic

projections on it you will find the

Trump launch sale coupon code for the

Trump anomic course okay you already

know that's at me kevin.com no really

what you're going to find here is

they're showing you in my opinion a

possible blind spot I'm calling it right

here and right here the Federal Reserve

is showing you that they actually don't

expect the unemployment rate to go

anything High higher than

4.6% which is weird because Jerome

Powell just gave you this big warning

where he's like dude things are worse

now than they were in 2019 and we kind

of just hope they stop getting worse but

that's what he told us in August

remember in August when he said we seek

no further Cooling and then what did we

get we got more further cooling why then

are they not telling us the truth that

this unemployment rate could go up more

well it's possible because R Powell is

trying to convince us that the recession

has been avoided he literally said we

have we can we can say we have avoided

the recession he literally said that

maybe because they have to self- fulfill

that to actually prevent the recession

because if they wrote on this summary of

economic projections that there was one

dude or doofus as some would like to say

that said oh no I think the unemployment

rates going to go up to 6.5 or 7% That's

going to price in recession stock market

would crash

and then you'd actually have your

recession because the stock market would

crash while interest rates are

skyrocketing which is like literally the

stupidest thing ever if you look at

what's happening with treasury yields

right now after this fed meeting it's a

complete sh9t show like this is like a

stagflationary disaster of a market

response you have the 10-year treasury

up 11.3 basis points the 2-year treasur

is up 11.6 basis points I mean look at

it on screen here it's a complete

disaster uh you have the yield curve

still about 14 basis points inverted uh

or or sorry uh uninverted uh but what

happens is if this kind of pain happens

where the stock market goes down at the

same time as yields keep Rising all

you're doing is tightening Financial

conditions on top of frothy Financial

conditions when Jerome Powell is hinting

to you that uhoh labor market conditions

could get worse in a jiffy and we'll be

prepared to respond to those now this

was really confusing because multiple

times throughout the press conference he

told told us hey things are better with

inflation like things are going good

with inflation but then he told us that

committee members voted uh to uh you

know write in lower rate cuts for next

year because maybe inflation starting to

move sideways and that inflation was a

major reason why we penciled in fewer

rate cuts for

2025 so which one is it poell but then I

got really confused because listen to

this and you can go play this yourself

listen to this JP says forecasts for

inflation are higher than they were in

September uh you had higher months of

inflation in September and October and

then you got November back on track but

this was really confusing because then I

went to go look at the November

inflation data because he's basically

saying ah we had a couple months of

higher inflation in September and

October and then we got back on track in

November so I looked at the November

inflationary readings and I'm like what

the f are you smoking bro CPI month over

month and core month over Monon was both

both of them were sitting at 3% so

Powell what charts are you reading on

one hand you're saying the labor market

is fine it's worse than it was in 2019

but don't worry it's fine just as long

as it doesn't cool any further and then

you're telling me that inflation's fine

it's really just a technical rounding

era he said those words he's like oh

it's just inflation is just a technical

issue at this point he literally said

that about inflation talking about owner

equivalent rents and housing inflation

taking a little longer to get there and

in you know uh Insurance inflation which

we've talked about that we already know

all that's all old news right but what

are you smoking when you say inflation's

back on track in November and then I

look at the numbers in November and I'm

like bro this is not back on track 3% on

core and month over Monon non-core

annualize out the 3.6% that's not back

on track bro so like I I'm I'm just

blatantly confused by Powell here now uh

J Powell then goes into talking about

you know how we missed our end of thee

projection for inflation and that's why

we're writing in lower uh uh cuts for

next year that was the quote single

biggest factor I wrote that down he said

that was the single biggest factor for

writing in fewer rate cuts for next year

uh but then uh even though that was the

single biggest Factor he also then talks

about how now they're starting to work

inflation from tariffs into their

forecast which pre viously they say they

wouldn't do dude the last two fed

meetings they're like you know we're not

going to consider tariffs uh until the

policy actually hits because uh the

policy could do anything we don't know

what the policy is going to be we'll

wait for the policy to hit then we'll

see what impact it has and then we'll

make a decision on inflation that's what

he said the last two meetings what did

this flip-flopper say today well Mr sick

today comes out and tells

us

um uh show uh the committee is

discussing how tariffs could affect

inflation and this puts us in a position

to make a more careful assessment about

rate Cuts going

forward what so now we're letting

politics affect our our forecast like

what is this what is going on like

everything they tell us just is is just

like Topsy Turvy it just changes every

freaking time no wonder the Market's

pissed off because you're giving us

hints about the labor market potentially

being on the verge of collapsing

and then you're telling US inflation was

the biggest reason why you priced in

fewer cuts for next year but then you

tell us that inflation is just a

freaking technical error and that you're

actually still on

track but you're going to start working

tariffs into your inflation project what

the is going on like this is absolutely

I'm going to say it full

anyway uh then he says oh you

know the economy is still doing well

though everything's fine which I get it

yes you know the Atlanta fed real GDP

infl you know GDP indicators at 3.2%

it's fantastic GDP is holding up people

are spending money like crazy but

everybody knows that's the same thing

that happened in 2007 in 2007 the

everybody was spending money like they

they're drunk Sailors because people had

a lot of money because markets were at

highs the market always hits a high

right before a freaking recession so no

dub people are spending and GDP is high

and then all of a sudden you go into a

recession what happens they revise all

the figures down and everybody's like

how come they revised us into a

recession man I don't understand this is

this is just very very very very very

weird but anyway then he tells us you

know then he sort of backtracks on the

warning that he gives us on the labor

market and he says well it's you know

the labor market right now is not

cooling in a way that causes any kind of

real concerns and you know it's pretty

clear that we've avoided a recession so

you know you could actually keep seeing

a softening in the labor market uh but

uh you know um the softening of the

labor market is actually why we cut

today and I'm like bro I literally wrote

down a quote of you saying you cut for

the the opposite reason just moments ago

and now

it's never mind never mind I'm I'm I'm

getting too confused because there's no

consistency in his messaging today I'm

very very frustrated by it so anyway

what you have let's try to summarize

this all together because there's a lot

here to put together let's try to

summarize this all Jerome Powell today

declared Victory he told us there's no

recession he told us that next year is

going to be great and the economy is

totally fine even though the labor

market is going to crap uh at least

worse than what we saw in 2019 and

before the pandemic and it seems like

it's still slowing and we're kind of

hopeful it'll stop uh then he tells us

hey you know inflation is just a

technical issue and that's why we cut

rates today and then he tells us no

actually we cut rates today because the

labor market is weakening but it's not

so bad because the economy is still

totally fine GDP is Great American

exceptionalism everything is fine don't

panic don't mind the fact that treasury

yields absolutely crush the cost to

borrow New Capital Equipment new

Machinery cars houses credit card rates

don't mind the fact that a lot of our

economy is based on high interest rates

or or longer term interest rates which

are all skyrocketing on this conference

while at the same time you're telling us

the labor market is weakening and all of

the surveys you're looking at are

telling you things are getting worse so

honestly I I've I've gone kind of from

this point where like I I like this guy

to where I'm just like so thoroughly

confused at this point just feel like

I'm being lied to and and I just feel

disgusted about it I I don't know how to

parse it anymore I'm confused this is

very frustrating and all I know is I

need to go pee really badly I have a

course for sale over at meetkevin.com

you already know about it I filmed it

all this month it's amazing uh stock

trade alerts wealth building strategies

course member live streams Tax

Strategies some of them you want to

start taking advantage of this month

before you go into 2025 to prepare for

you know uh um trumponomics and the

other thing I recognize is the NASDAQ is

down holy crap the nasdaq's down 3.5%

Tesla's down 99.2% paler is down 4% the

Spy down 2.5% edas is down 6% Bitcoin is

almost going to break 100,000 over here

everything is breaking Nvidia goes from

positive to down SLE Q's are the only

thing that's going euphoric right now

apples going down Man Mark is just as

confused as I am man I'm going to I'm

going to go I love you all listen no

matter what the hell happens you know

I'm always going to be here for

you I just wish you all the best I love

you all cheers okay I got my uh I mean

at this point this Tesla cup is like

worth more than what happened in the

Tesla okay never mind I got to go bye I

love you all we'll see you soon bye can

not advertise these things that you told

us here I feel like nobody else knows

about this well we'll try a little

advertising and see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take