wtf tesla stock wtf

boy there has been a lot of fud around

tesla and i kind of get it because you

know it's kind of frustrating you see a

lot of companies going to the moon right

now and yet still tesla's kind of

lagging over here right this was an

alert that i sent out to course members

i haven't shown this one yet to the

public i thought this was really funny

though because on the 8th i added 420

shares to nvidia to the already

1337 shares i had which is elite and

gamer speak and i thought it was really

funny because the jpm guy read that back

as okay so i show you have 1337 shares

and we're adding 420 you got it that was

pretty epic but anyway like this this

part here i've shown before i was

frustrated that a tesla is is down

29-ish percent maybe even now like 31

year-to-date and uh it's kind of

frustrating because a lot of companies

aren't down like this right apple minus

8 microsoft minus 14 google 17.3 the

nasdaq uh is down around 19 nvidia's

down more at 42 and some of the smaller

caps that got crushed and profit less

companies that got crushed are still

down large or like 60 70 but in terms of

large it's frustrating and so on the

daily when we see the nasdaq go up or

maybe it's like down a quarter and a

half percent why is tesla uh either just

red or down like four times as much as

the nasdaq and there are a few things

that we really have to talk about here

because there's so much short-term flood

and one of the things that i realize and

we talk about all the time in the stocks

and psychology of money course is really

that

there's fundamental analysis that you

can do that gives you conviction to stay

in a stock but it can take a while for

that fundamental analysis to actually be

reflected in the share price and

oftentimes that share price let's just

say for tesla might be fifteen hundred

dollars you could be bobbing around

below that under twitter foot or other

fud and then when we actually get to

1500 we might not stop there we might

then go from food to fomo and go 2

200

that could literally happen by the end

of 2022 in fact i kind of expect it will

of course no guarantees but the point is

what the actual stock price of a company

is rarely matches its fundamental value

there's a reason why when end phase goes

down to 120 to 150

the company buys back its shares and

that's when i buy in face because

they're smart they know their

fundamental value and when they're

buying i'm buying i've done it many

times and i've traded on their moves and

it's worked out great obviously i send

those alerts to those of you in the

stocks and psychology money group which

you could join if you check out the link

down below but this is beside that point

what matters right now is that tesla is

kind of bobbing around that 860 level we

want to know where do we actually think

tesla share price is going to go and is

it something that we should be concerned

about that

wait wait a minute wait a minute kevin

elon musk sold at the top three times

now he sold back in i think it was early

december when tesla was around 1200

bucks then he sold around 960 in april

now he's selling around 869

here in august and the whole time these

have been the high the lower highs for

tesla and so it's kind of like uh you

know is this concerning like should our

fundamentals that tesla be shaken

because elon maybe maybe he knows he did

call the recession coming so so maybe he

knows and now's the time to get out in

fact

when he just sold shares on the 5th 8th

and 9th of which i happened to buy some

of them on the 5th everything was green

and i'm like tesla's red this doesn't

make sense it turned out it was elon

selling so i bought some of his shares

which probably but which is kind of

funny but anyway

it's so weird because oh my gosh here we

are in this situation where people are

thinking

okay that's it the fundamentals are

broken it's over and look elon's been

pretty good about timing in the past but

what do i actually think is happening

here and what are the core topics that

we got to address let's hit them so

first let's talk the new ev tax credit

and some fund that's coming out of this

then let's talk about the twitter

disaster and elon sale we'll keep that

one short uh obviously then we'll also

talk about some fundamental analysis i

will keep this relatively brief i'll

talk a little bit about the demand china

my experience with with tesla deliveries

and then also some price targets in my

spreadsheet so we'll try to keep that

brief okay first inflation reduction act

look there's a lot of fud going on

around this and i was one of the first

people to break this when i broke down

the inflation reduction act and i

actually read through it and i'm like oh

my gosh i mentioned this on twitter and

both on a youtube video this is

interesting they've now loosened the

definition of vehicles that qualify

instead of being electric vehicles that

qualify for

you know basically uh ev tax credits of

7 500 now they're clean air vehicles as

long as 40 of their batteries are

manufactured in the united states but

this really opens up hydrogen vehicles

and hybrids and hybrids have

substantially smaller batteries so it's

a lot easier to manufacture 40

so a lot of people think the lobbyists

for like ford and gm are getting this

tax credit for basically their crappy

hybrids okay they're not crappy hybrids

but you know what i mean i'm making a

tesla video here okay so i have to be a

little biased i have to be a little

tesla fanboy and i am okay i mean i got

a big position and over twenty six

thousand shares i'm freaking tesla all

right anyway so i gotta be a little a

little biased okay yeah let's look at

that let's get that let's make that very

clear okay uh anyway so a lot of people

are fudding about this because they

think ah crap okay like the lobbyists

win uh biden screwed us again and uh

tesla's not gonna be able to qualify

because uh we've got a few things one

forty percent of their batteries

probably aren't uh you know made in free

trade countries like canada america or

mexico in fact most of tesla's lithium

hydroxide currently comes from either

china or argentina kobold typically

comes from the democratic republi

republic of congo or china graphene

mostly comes from china now we do source

some local uh nickel production uh again

here locally copper not generally found

much like heavily at least by weight

kind of depends on how they measure this

40

but but not so heavily found in

batteries but then again i'm also not a

battery chemist so maybe maybe i'm wrong

about that but i i don't think we really

have much copper in the batteries uh

these are generally in the motors and

even though tesla wants to source some

copper from the united states redwood

materials which was founded by somebody

who used to work for tesla in the early

days with elon musk uh right now it just

doesn't seem like tesla's might qualify

even if they did though you have to

consider that the s and x won't because

suvs are limited in how much they can

sell for to actually be able to get the

credit uh sedans and the same for sedans

sedans can't sell for more than 55k so

there goes the model s both the regular

s and the plaid suvs can't sell for more

than 80k so there goes the model x the

performance model 3 wouldn't qualify so

you're really only talking about the y's

and the cheaper threes which i mean

that's honestly most sales now they

could qualify and here's what i expect

tesla to do and this is just totally my

opinion but 7 500

of free government money is a lot of

freaking money even if it costs tesla as

much as a thousand bucks more per

vehicle to rejigger the supply chains

for the lower end model threes and y's

and then also the uh well yeah and then

the model y's that it would make sense

to do that because see when you look at

tax credits from an economist point of

view here's generally how they work

generally when you get like a 7 500

handout from the government

that 7 500

is split between the business and the

customer assuming it's a tax rebate for

something right not always it's not

always 50 50. it depends on demand and

supply and other factors and so this is

going to skew something for tesla but

let's just say we're just as an example

gm okay and you go buy a hybrid with

them i wouldn't be surprised if about

half of the tax credit is a benefit to

the consumer even though they feel like

they're getting the full 7 500

the other half is probably them paying

you know 37.50 more for the vehicle

that's my guess from an economic point

of view usually government incentives

are split a little bit on both sides

then there's some dead weight loss but

don't worry so much about that that just

makes it really complicated and

confusing the point is don't think about

it as oh the consumer's up 7 500 bucks

no the company obviously takes some

profit as well now because tesla has so

much excess demand they don't

necessarily have to be more competitive

at the moment they could probably

realize like 90

of that 7 500

so

you know that could be somewhere around

you know 6

uh you know like six hundred bucks and

realistically

you know six hundred maybe six thousand

seven hundred bucks whatever just quick

mental math doesn't really matter

somewhere around there over six thousand

dollars even if it cost them an extra

thousand bucks to rejigger the supply

chains a little bit that's still

potentially be an extra 5 500 of profit

for tesla and i'm rounding here with the

numbers but the point is to say tesla's

probably gonna get the bulk of that tax

credit not the consumer because if it

weren't for that tax credit the prices

would probably come down the tax credit

will allow tesla to keep the prices up

because they have so much excess demand

and they'll figure out how to get to

that 40 level i'm pretty dang confident

they'll be able to figure it out because

that's a lot of money and it's going to

drive tesla's margins through the roof

and people are going to go holy crap

tesla's actually selling vehicles with a

35 margin instead of 30 margin this ev

tax credit is huge and wall street just

doesn't get it yet they're going to have

to see it in reports and i could be

wrong but that's my expectation the ev

tax credit is mostly going to be sucked

up

uh in tesla's case by tesla not the

customer the customer is gonna feel like

they're getting a 7500 check but it's a

lie

tesla's getting most of it okay that's

my take uh and again that's why tesla

will probably do whatever they can to

make sure that their customers will be

able to qualify for that obviously there

are other constraints as well but we

don't need to hit all of the constraints

right now i just want you to know i

believe the eevee tax credit is

extremely bullish for tesla and you know

elon as soon as that act passed got on

the phone with people at tesla figure it

out make it happen it's 40 in those

batteries otherwise they ain't going up

like the door we want people having

those 7 500

at least that's what i would do i mean

realistically it's like again if you

have to spend a little extra money to

ship it around you're going to make

money on that decision so i'm happy

about that now

we got to talk briefly about the twitter

overhang elon selling shares and then i

want to show you my spreadsheet

valuation some updates and things like

that but first a quick message from our

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looks like we've got a lot of activity

on tesla puts right now anywhere between

870 to 950 puts on tesla we've even got

to put over here at with the nine

contracts at 600 dollars but boy if

you're looking for that big monitor look

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yikes that's gonna be a lot of money

that has to get redeployed when that

time comes and that option expires

tomorrow fingers crossed tesla doesn't

go that low tomorrow but then again you

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attendees all right welcome back now if

you haven't yet followed me on twitter i

highly recommend you do so because you

see me reply to things sort of on a whim

like this there was a cnbc article that

says self-made millionaire colin don't

buy a home unless you can afford to

waste money and i'm like what that's a

dumb headline so before even reading the

article i wrote that's a dumb headline

and then of course when i actually

opened the article i had to reply again

oh my gosh i wrote that before seeing

grant cardone authored the article

now i could definitely say dumb article

in addition to dumb headline but anyway

the point here was to go to my reply to

gary black where i agree with him gary

black is basically telling us that hey

look at this point here's the little

spreadsheet for it bottom line elon

probably at max only needs to raise

another two billion dollars so yes elon

musk you already know this sold 6.9

billion dollars a tesla share i don't

know why it always has to end in 69 but

uh you know the average price of his

sales was 8.69 as well so it's i i don't

know how they engineer this stuff but

it's pretty remarkable but anyway an

extra 2 billion bucks okay whatever like

maybe maybe he could make that you know

happen through financing or whatever

else the point is it seems like if elon

is forced to buy twitter which elon said

the reason he was selling is just in

case he's forced to buy it he doesn't

want to have to sell tesla stock at

potentially depressed prices may as well

do it at this point because we don't

know what's gonna happen with the macro

economy what if shanghai shuts tesla

down again and tesla goes down right uh

in in value because people freak out

again that missed deliveries blah blah

blah the point is hopefully elon should

be done selling for now but then again

he did tell us in april that he'd be

done selling so you just don't know at

this point i just want to make it very

clear i think there's a very very high

likelihood elon musk is just going to

get a haircut of a price reduction maybe

seven percent maybe 6.9 percent who

knows uh i i kind of think he should

probably get like a 15 price reduction

that's probably what i'd be trying to go

for if i can get more grade if it's a

little less whatever but the odds are

he's gonna buy it uh if he doesn't buy

it he's already told us on twitter that

he's going to rebuy his tesla shares i

kind of doubt that but okay hey great

fine either way hopefully he's done

selling uh i will say regarding the elon

tesla thing what here's just the bottom

line thing that you've got to know about

it i really respect your time so i want

to keep it simple just you know bottom

line i really believe it's possible that

twitter just really doesn't care about

the bot number and even though that's

bad business it's not fraudulent as long

as they have one person at their company

that counted five bots out of a hundred

and then they could make the estimate

that yeah it's about five percent plus

or minus and see i did a test i was

shocked but i went through one of my

comment threads so i posted a tweet i

got about 100 replies i went through it

i only found two bots

now i think it's skewed for elon because

there's way more engagement so the bots

have a lot more value posting spam

comments there and so he might see a lot

more which might lead him to believe

that twitter's a lot more spammy than

maybe it is for me sometimes i get

spammed but again you know not always

but anyway if one person just went to my

profile at twitter and the ceo is like

hey yo go pick someone's profile and and

count how many bots there are and they

picked mine and then they counted two

bots or five bots even let's say that

the time they checked okay well there

you go they made an estimate it's about

five percent that's stupid

it's a really bad way to do it but it's

not fraud and elon's got to win a fraud

argument here that's tough if it is

proven that there was fraud elon will

win hands down and he'll walk from the

steel and he's already alluded to

starting a social media company called

x.com so don't bother going there

because there's literally nothing there

right now it doesn't even really load

but anyway you know

what do i know okay i'm like a 30 year

old dude who's drinking out of a level

99 slayer cub like a sixth grader hoping

to make out with his crush after getting

pizza at the school cafeteria and

realizing that's not going to happen so

instead going to the vending machine and

buying some

sweet gummy worms and sucking on those

instead anyway

course member today

mentioned uh uh something that they

thought was interesting they sent me

this screenshot they're like hey kevin

you know usually teslas don't sell

used for like a 12 discount uh generally

they they sell for at or more than uh

what what the listing prices are and uh

my reply to this uh was hey yeah a i do

think there's a chance that you know

demand could get cut down during a

recession that would be normal but the

other thing that i thought was really

interesting

was who the hell parks a tesla model s

on gravel in the middle of a freaking

field

like if that's how they're treating the

car on the outside imagine what the

inside looks like it's probably a smoker

vomit mess or i'm just a tesla bull who

doesn't want to believe that it's

possible that demand could go down after

all tesla's uh well troy like tesla

detroit troy tests like is his name on

twitter he's great he does give us a

little bit of insight into demand which

i think is pretty cool take a look at

this demand he sees that uh the current

measure of tesla's order backlog is

around 500 000 vehicles that order

backlog has almost doubled since q4 of

2021 based on his estimates right these

are not official tesla estimates but

this guy is really good like he's

on it uh when it comes to uh this this

kind of stuff so i i think it's really

really incredible uh but anyway uh

so you can get some other numbers here

but go follow him on twitter i think

he's brilliant i'm not going to give all

of his stuff away you know you can

follow other you know gary black as well

whom we mentioned whom we have mentioned

here uh i do want to talk price targets

uh oh and uh delivery time frames you

know like there's this guy over here ray

for tesla he's like hey my delivery time

frames are going down for my vehicle i

was told that my model x my new blue

model x would be ready in like september

or october they called me in july while

i was in europe and they're like hey

it's ready so i kind of do believe that

these delivery time frames are going

faster

some people say hey that's bad that

means demand is going away but when you

look at this order backlog and you have

basically you know six months of an

order backlog

i'm not not terribly worried about it on

the order issue right now especially the

commentary that we got out of uh zach

and elon on the last earnings call about

how no they're not really seeing an

impact to the order backlog or elon

saying well it really follows sentiment

so like when the market was really

crappy in june uh look at that you kind

of saw flat increases in the backlog not

a surprise because this was like the

crappiest time of the market right now

we're seeing green again i wouldn't be

surprised to actually see the backlog

increase so i can't really be worried

about demand going down and if anything

if they can ramp up faster and we get a

larger backlog well then that's just

doubly good but yeah look there is a

possibility hey we're in a recession

that demand goes down and at some point

tesla's gonna have to drop some of its

prices right uh but that that will come

so uh there are some people talking

about chinese demand potentially going

down especially since tesla sales in

china were down 64 but then again the

factory shutdown for major upgrades

that's actually going to allow shanghai

to ramp even more uh quickly so like

that's not really a bad thing that's a

good thing not worried about that but

even if like china's economy collapsed

because every youtuber's doing the china

economy's collapsing click bait right

now like okay whatever

that's why i invest in united states

companies okay but anyway whatever

whatever happens in china in my opinion

doesn't matter

if anything if there's less local demand

in china it just frees up more raw

materials for tesla to produce more

teslas in china and ship them back to

the united states or somewhere else

right uh not a big deal to me deutsche

bank has a price target of 1125

they see little demand reduction and

they also view tesla as one of the best

buy targets for autos and one of the

best stocks for the second half of the

year they think tesla's going to get to

about 2.2 4 to 2.5 million vehicles of

capacity by 2023 and they think the

second half of 2022 was actually where

we're gonna see some of this

explosiveness

morningstar has a price target of only

760 dollars but they see tesla is very

uncertain

and uh i'm pretty sure that once that

uncertainty on wall street goes away

that tesla's actually going to keep

delivering these sorts of vehicles

that the price will skyrocket that's

just my estimate let's briefly go to the

spreadsheet i haven't

changed pretty much anything from the

spreadsheet since the last time we did

it i did add this because some people

are like um kevin's so negative about

tesla's cash flow kevin said in the last

video that tesla's gonna have to raise

the money well here in in the tesla

earnings report they say they don't have

to raise money and i'm like dude tesla

themselves said

as long as we don't have to shut down

again and that's what i said in my

videos like if shanghai shuts down or

berlin shuts down which is unlikely

they're going to have to raise money

again and they're going because their

operating cash flow will plummet you do

not want a shanghai shut down okay we

just had another city literally today i

woke up this morning and i saw a

notification city of 1.4 million people

locked down today august 11 2010 it can

happen tesla is not immune to bad [ __ ]

happening

okay so god like i don't know how

bullish i could be but like if you're

like a 90 bull the tesla community's

like [ __ ] you man you shouldn't have

said that sorry

uh people watch this with families

around i

apologize but what samsung feels like

sometimes i'm like no okay like i put my

money where my mouth is like how much

more bullish do i need to freaking be

i ain't going to 100 okay because

i gotta look at the bad too so important

anyway

supply outpacing demand come on we're

not even seeing that uh so so really

what we've got here look my estimates

for 2023 are only 2.2 million vehicles

that's like shy of what even deutsche

bank is is recommending they think we're

gonna be at 2.5 okay that's huge that's

gonna make that 2025 target of nearly

six million vehicles uh a lot easier and

i know some people are like oh but kevin

will they even be able to sell those

vehicles

i think so uh i'm i don't even know if i

want to entertain that but honestly if

we can get tesla's down to like a one

week delivery time dude we would be

selling probably two to three times as

many teslas maybe even four to five

times as many teslas because people

don't want to wait my neighbor's like

kevin kevin listen to this people think

that somehow i have power my neighbor

literally right there out the freaking

window he's like

hey

kevin

fella

got any connections i've got a

reservation for a model y but uh i don't

want to wait the eight months i'm like

dude no i can't even get mine faster and

he's like

and just drives away

uh and then i see him like two weeks

later driving some other car and i'm

like what happened to waiting for the

tesla i didn't want to wait and he's

driving around like a gmc or something

crap like

whatever

[Laughter]

whatever dude so okay look i just what

matters here you just give a crap about

the bottom line okay i'm a bottom line

kind of guy you want bottom lines on

fundamental analysis you come to the

course member live streams okay they get

like four to seven thousand views every

freaking day and it's people go there

because they know the information is

good and the value is good and i really

think you should be there too otherwise

i think you're missing out

anyway so look at the price target here

what do we got we got uh you know price

today is 860 dollars that puts them at a

forward p e ratio of only 25.85

p e ratio in 2025 sitting at uh

about 66 to get to a future price of

2022

2 200

now if we go ahead and change this and

just put it bring it down to 45 okay

that's still 1500

1500 as a future value is still a 15

annual compounded rate of return for the

next four years it's still really really

freaking good okay if we get the 66 in

2025 because it's gonna go down over

time right uh then then then you know

maybe we're looking at like a 26 percent

rate return that's freaking phenomenal

okay like it's great now you should

diversify like you should diversify into

real estate you shouldn't be all in on

one stock that's a really bad idea

but anyway i gotta go thank you so much

for being here and we'll see you next

one bye