Putin's "Victory Day" could CRASH the Market | Ukraine & Russia.

quick preface to this video so i am

filming this while on vacation with my

family and it's devastating that the

people of ukraine do not have the

opportunity to enjoy what we get to

enjoy on a daily basis but i'm taking

time from my vacation to make sure that

we bring attention to these issues and i

wish that everybody has this opportunity

and i cannot wait for this war in

ukraine to end as soon as possible we

have to stop the loss of life hey

everyone meet kevin here it's time for

an update on what's going on in ukraine

and then of course we're also towards

the end of the video going to talk about

how this is affecting our market and

expectations in terms of when this is

actually finally going to end let's go

through all of this okay first we need

to talk about how russia is continuing

their push into southeast ukraine

residents are fleeing we just had a

train station where individuals

civilians were trying to evacuate and a

missile hit the train station uh killing

at least 52. so far russia's advance has

stalled throughout russia however

they're focusing their attention on

southeast ukraine and still cities

outside of kiev including one city 40

miles west of kiev which is on the other

side of the eastern attack right 40

miles to the west of kiev russians are

coming from belarus where 40 percent of

the city is estimated to be destroyed

that's four out of every single 10

buildings estimated to be destroyed and

132 bodies were just found in a mass

grave this is all on top of what we saw

last week going on in buca with burned

bodies civilians children men women

everyone with hands tied behind their

backs

shot

tortured you name it absolutely

disgusting but beyond that we've also

got the russians just doing straight up

stupid things in for example the

chernobyl exclusion zone so what's

really important to remember is that

after the chernobyl nuclear incident the

meltdown there are a lot of radioactive

material was spread throughout the area

around chernobyl that's why there's a

chernobyl exclusion zone the reason it's

an exclusion zone is because there's a

lot of radiation that's actually sitting

just a few inches to up to a foot

underneath the ground the surface level

and when that gets disturbed very high

levels of radiation go in the air that

can cause cancer that's very bad and so

apparently what russians are doing in

the chernobyl exclusion zone despite

scientists and security engineers who

work at chernobyl telling them not to do

this russians are digging trenches and

building bunkers now exposing themselves

to the radiation lingering beneath the

surface by digging in this area they're

exposing themselves to up to 1 000 times

the normal levels of radiation this is

really bad especially since that

radiation could also spread beyond

ukraine's borders especially if

electricity stays off too long at the

chernobyl site because then hydrogen

generated by spent fuels that are stored

there could end up accumulating leading

to an explosion and some experts believe

that within 15 days we could be at risk

of a minor to larger explosions at

chernobyl which would then send a lot of

radioactive materials throughout the air

this is why a lot of people are starting

to stock up on iodine potassium pills

although that only helps prevent you

from having radiation attached to your

thyroid which is only one way that

radiation can affect you a lot of folks

in europe are quite nervous about this

especially since russians appear to be

so dumb that one russian soldier

reportedly picked up a source of cobalt

60 with his bare hands exposing him to

so much radiation within just a few

seconds that when his hands were

measured with a geiger counter the

geiger counter maxed out now you might

be wondering why is chernobyl important

to the russians well it's really their

conduit to go from belarus to kiev and

their surrounding cities so they're

fortifying themselves in the chernobyl

area and there are even reports that as

russians are retreating from the towns

that they've sieged around kiev they're

throwing appliances that they looted

from stores and homes like washing

machines and microwaves and

refrigerators just onto the side of the

freeways as for some reason apparently

they've changed their mind on stealing

the stuff of course we imagine a lot

more has been stolen actually kept now

another thing to keep in mind is that

russia is really trying to refocus their

attack in the east potentially

recruiting as many as 60 000 reservists

now trying to completely capture cities

like marupo would be a massive blow to

the morale of ukrainians though they are

so strong under the leadership of

zelinski i expect they will still stay

strong zielinski though is calling this

eastern battle crucial because he

realizes the last thing he wants us to

start losing more of the eastern region

at the same time china is now

accelerating its nuclear arsenal because

of how it views threats from the united

states now the united states on one hand

is saying we've got to be concerned here

because this could lead to surprise

nuclear attacks from china though most

folks with intelligence from china

expect that china is really just trying

to build up an arsenal equal or greater

to the size of the united states so that

way they could use just having that much

of a nuclear arsenal as a deterrent or

leverage point for negotiations on trade

or conflicts such as even taiwan the

united states has also been training

ukrainian troops since the start of the

war including recently training them on

switchblade armed drones which ukraine

now has 100 of those delivered directly

from the united states

youtube has blocked the russian duma tv

channel now this is a channel that's

kind of like c-span in america where

they share parliamentary debates and

other political news it also now looks

inevitable that russia is going to

default for the first time on some of

their bonds though this has not happened

yet this is an expectation england's

boris johnson the prime minister did

meet with zielinski in kiev and the eu

and italy have re-opened their embassies

in kiev as keef seems to be much more

under control now the ukrainian air

force has about 70 percent of its air

force still up but they're not using the

air force as much as they could because

they fear that if they lose their

airships their warplanes they might not

be able to get replacement airplanes so

they're keeping them for more crucial

parts within ukraine though this also

makes a lot of people question hey

aren't the lives in eastern ukraine

crucial and worth fighting for with

those jets but then the question comes

we know that the ukrainians are

launching these warplanes from airfields

that are still active in western ukraine

and these planes are able to be launched

from western ukraine to help in areas

such as keith but potentially not as far

as the eastern area of ukraine the red

cross has also negotiated multiple safe

corridors russia and ukraine have agreed

to humanitarian corridors to allow

civilians to escape fighting in these

regions so far so good thanks to the

work of the red cross which is awesome

now in exchange the united states has

provided slovakia a patriot

anti-aircraft defense system which is a

newer model one that ukrainians aren't

experienced in but it's kind of

interesting how you're seeing countries

in eastern ukraine provide weapons to

ukraine and them sort of get reimbursed

by the united states i kind of honestly

wish the u.s would just you know grow

some balls and provide these weapons

directly to ukraine however i do

understand the potential implications

here of is that then sort of like

creating world war iii it's sort of

blurry because as we mentioned earlier

the united states is already training

ukrainian troops and providing them

drones so what's the difference now we

got to talk about the length of this

conflict so there's a big day coming up

and it's may 9th may 9th is a really big

day because this is what putin has set

for what's known as quote victory day

putin plans to announce victory day on

may 9th which means we could see a lot

of increased aggression in eastern

ukraine leading up to may 9th and then

hopefully after may 9th putin ends up

using this claim to victory even though

we know it's been a complete failure as

a way to justify withdrawing troops from

ukraine this is a big hope now i

personally have been believing that this

war would come to a resolution by the

end of may i'm hoping that this ends up

being now by the middle of may because

of this quote-unquote victory day scam

or whatever that they're going to

perpetuate in russia but if that makes

them feel good and we can end the war

and the killing in this disaster that

would be absolutely wonderful because

this is terrible now what does this mean

for markets well the problem is may 9th

is after the next fomc meeting which

means between now at the beginning of

april and may 9th we've got cpi coming

up on tuesday we've got earnings season

to get through again we're back to

earnings season now for q1 and then

we've got the fed's fomc meeting which

ends on the fourth so you've got these

endless amounts of uncertainty that are

going to lead to reduced buying pressure

in markets and what happens well

probably the next month is gonna suck if

we do get little periods of green shoots

personally i would take advantage of

those to either take some potential

profits on more risky trades on calls

that you have and maybe open up some

hedges like selling some calls or

selling some puts but just be prepared

may 9th is going to be a very big day

there's your update on ukraine