The Great Reset is Coming | Recession Date SET.

That's when the Federal Reserve comes

in. There is so much to talk about.

Let's catch up on everything from not

just what's going on with GDP estimates

right now, but also I really want to

show you what's going on with Apollo's

piece if you haven't seen it yet on

recession estimates when we think a

recession will begin. They've got a

great piece on this. We'll go through

that. Uh but first, let me catch you up

on some of the news this morning. UPS

laying off over 20,000 workers as

they're closing down lease spaces as

well, mostly in response to reduced

package volume from Amazon. It's unclear

if that's really going to get picked up

by Amazon workers as, you know, because

of the tariff drama, we might actually

be seeing a net reduction in package

volume. Anyway, this comes at the same

time as the job openings data that came

in this morning came in lower than

expected. Just about 7.2 million job

openings versus the 7.5 expected. So, a

loss of about 300 mil there, although

some weird volatility in terms of the

layoffs and quits levels, which I argue

roughly wash each other out, but only

really a softening, if you will. We

haven't really gotten the big wam yet in

Jolt's data suggesting, hey, we're in

recession. Now, some other data, and

certainly sentiment is going to disagree

with that, but we've also got to be

careful with when this data is coming

from. See, for example, this morning we

got the US confidence report. The

problem though with this confidence

report showing that future expectations

are at a 13-year low going back to

October of 2011, which is like 13 and a

half years ago. This data was finished

being collected. So, they finished their

collection of sort of the survey data on

April 21st. and write in responses

indicated the stock market was having a

really large negative impact on people's

responses to surveys. And if you look at

what the stock market did, it actually

bottomed not only once here right as

tariffs went into effect just a couple

days before that on April 7th, but the

second bottom you had was April 21st. So

you were really trading between two

bottoms when the survey was being

conducted and you did not yet have these

sort of six days of recovery over here.

In fact, one thing that we've been

talking about in addition to HIMS this

morning uh and and yesterday in the uh

course member liveream is first of all

this morning before the market opened I

sent out an alpha report and suggested

HIMS is probably going to get faded. And

that's not because I'm anti-HIMS, but

because most retail investors in HIMS

probably don't understand that a $499

subscription to Wiggoi and this new

partnership where there's a lot of

competition at that price level compared

to the $199 HIMS was offering before

isn't that great of a deal. TBD exactly

how HIMS ends up implementing it, but it

was a fade trade that could have been

played this morning and we were talking

about it before the market open. Now,

I'm mentioning it here because I also

want to mention for the next uh two

days, give me a 10-second pitch here.

Next two days, we're going to do a flash

sale on the Meet Kevin membership. And

the pricing will be going up on May 1st.

So, if you lock in that pricing you see

now, you'll lock in that membership

pricing forever over at meet.com. You'll

get these alpha reports in the morning,

the trade perspectives, the trade ideas.

You'll meet me every morning in the

course member liveream when the market's

opening. uh and we'll get to discuss

these strategies as well as conduct

analysis like we did this morning on

SoFi as well breaking down hm what's

actually going on with that lending

platform and why are we spending so much

more money at SoFi there a lot of nuance

that you really get out of these

earnings but that said what we really

want to watch for is is there a

potential for markets to sort of fomo

continue this sort of FOMO up and this

recovery from the tariff warfare uh

there's a lot of opium around. Oh, well,

you know, little updates are being made

to tariff policy, such as auto tariff

policy. Now, car companies might be able

to get about 3.75% back on auto

production in the United States, uh,

which I calculated for Tesla might boost

their margins by about 2% if you assume

about a 40% US-made content in the

United States. If you assume more,

obviously, you could get even more

margin. The problem

is that's going to get offset by tariffs

on the other non US-made parts. So, it's

still unclear how beneficial Trump's,

you know, sort of loosening of auto

tariffs, as they call it, the destacking

of auto tariffs are going to be where,

you know, once you pay the 25% on the

main autoimp imports, we'll exempt you

from steel and aluminum tariffs and

we'll give you a little bit of a rebate

this year and next year. Great. But like

an analogy I've made in the past, there

are these little updates we're getting

to tariff policy that make it seem like

tariff policy is getting better rather

than worse. But it's kind of like you

broke a bunch of bones in your body and

you're in the emergency room and your

doctor's coming in and is saying, "Good

news, the scratches on your knuckles are

healing." What good does that really do

you when you're still in a critical

condition? And that I think is where

Apollo is coming from. Uh, mind you,

there's also some tariff news this

morning on Amazon potentially listing

tariff prices on their website. This has

to do with Amazon Hall, which which is

basically the Teeu version of Amazon.

Uh, Amazon's clarified this. They don't

plan to put tariff prices on their main

Amazon.com website. A little bit of

clarity there that uh is useful to have.

But anyway, you know, this this idea

about being a patient on a surgical

table and being excited about these

small little healings while at the same

time we have blank sailings uh layoffs

and substantial confidence issues that

will all likely translate into bad hard

data uh like you know even even in the

Atlanta Fed real GDP estimates which

we'll pull up in just a moment

here. The bad news is still coming.

Could we get a FOMO rally between now

and when that bad news comes? Yeah. And

I actually advocate for potentially if

you're trying to diversify away from the

stock market. Maybe you use trailing

stops and you say, "Look, I'm willing to

lose, you know, 5% or 10% or whatever,

uh, as a bet to try to get some upside

in the short term, but then I want to

diversify a bit." And then maybe you

take that money and throw it into House

Hack, you know, get your 5% annual yield

until you convert and you get all the

upside in the stock value. obviously

read all the details over at

houseack.com uh my real estate company

uh which which is doing really well.

We're really excited with where we are

right now. Uh just broke ground on some

more ADUs. Can't wait to show you some

some updates on that. Uh but what you

find is we could continue this trend

right here maybe up to 494, right? Which

are the levels where we were at the end

of March. I don't know though that we

really blast off past that because by

the time we get to these levels

especially if we move slowly we might be

in a recessionary environment and I

think that's where Apollo and the

Atlanta Fed real GDP numbers are useful

to look at. This morning we got new

Atlanta Fed real GDP numbers. Now you

could actually see the gold adjusted

level which I think is the most

important level to look at. I generally

don't look at this headline 2.7%. I look

at the adjusted for imports and exports

of gold. This down worse than where we

were in the last two weeks. 2 weeks ago

we were at

negative.1%. So just.1% negative. So

basically not almost not recessionary,

right? That declined

to.7% and then this morning to negative

1.5%. The reason by the way it crashed

this morning is because we revised a lot

of the inventory buildup away to lower

than expected and our trade deficit is

actually now worse than previously

expected with some of the numbers we got

this morning. So really a lot of news

and a lot of data to hit this morning

but the Atlanta Fed has already updated

their formula for GDP now showing it at

negative 1.5% gold adjusted negative -2%

uh 2.7% not gold adjusted. So I think

this is where when you put together the

yeah like sure there's some little itty

bitty oh China's waving this or the US

is doing this great I mean it's not bad

news right but you still have a

critically ill patient and I think

that's where Apollo comes in and says

look Southwest says I don't care if you

call it a recession or not this industry

is in recession saving money because of

concerns around the economy was the

overwhelming reason consumers were

reducing frequency of restaurant visits

as Chipotle mentioned

Uh, by the way, this sort of aligns with

what the consumer conference board

mentioned this morning. We went through

this uh in detail as well this morning

in the meet Kevin membership. But if we

look at the consumer conference board

this morning, we have a restaurant

section right here. Consumers overall

intentions to purchase more services in

the months ahead were down with almost

all service categories affected. While

dining out remained the number one of

spending intentions, the share of

consumers planning to spend more on

dining out in the coming months ahead

registered one of the largest

month-on-month declines on record in

April. So, not great. But going back to

Apollo over here, Pepsi says we probably

aren't feeling good about the consumer

right now. And here is what they see in

terms of a timeline to recession. So

they think that we're not actually going

to stop seeing ships coming into ports

until early to miday. Then it's going to

take another 1 to 10 days for those

trucks and rails to slow down. And it's

not really until late May the trucking

demand comes to a halt. In my opinion,

you you actually potentially have this

this movement in the cues between now

and then up to, you know, 495. But

unfortunately, I think after that, we're

probably in for more hurt. And that

that's exactly why I suggest those, you

know, trailing stops as a consideration

and this sort of environment. Uh empty

store shelves and companies respond to

lower sales late May, early June. Uh

layoffs in trucking and retail industry,

not until June, folks. It takes a while

to get there. Uh and then in the summer

of 2025, that's when you hit recession,

mind you. Then we start getting the hard

data. June, July, and otherwise. That's

when the Federal Reserve comes in. And

the Federal Reserve swoops in after the

hard data comes in and goes, "Oh my

gosh, what have we done? We've acted too

late. We kept rates for too high for too

long because we were worried about

inflation." When the reality is now we

have deflation. Oh my gosh, cut. And

that's how we end up trending back

potentially to zero rates again. Isn't

that crazy? How firms are responding to

tariffs, rapid downward revisions, and

earnings expectations, capex plans

falling. Although this morning I still

saw some decent capex plans. So not all

companies are doing this earnings

revisions. You can see some of these

earnings revision numbers here. I'll

hide myself. These are some pretty

pretty gnarly revisions in terms of

declines on the charts. The charts just

don't look pretty right now.

Manufacturing surveys, new orders

falling off a cliff here. Corporate

capex really still somewhat holding up.

You're still positive over here. So you

really haven't gone into recessionary on

the right side yet. uh input prices

obviously up substantially, new orders

in contraction expecting to decline

further in April. ISM manufacturing

prices, inventories rising, actually

yeah, sorry, inventories rapidly before

tariffs took effect. This year is an

inventories chart uh rising to sort of

pre-tock, which really is another way of

suggesting that hey, we're pulling

forward uh some demand uh and now we're

going to work through inventories. Truck

sales down significantly in March. Well,

yeah, not a surprise that people would

invest in fewer trucks. CEO confidence

declining, logistics index declining,

China to US trade coming to a stop.

Right side over here, you've got uh some

more charts on China container freight

rates, blah blah blah. These are a lot

of charts just basically telling you,

hey, things aren't good right now.

Consumer sentiment declining across

income groups. Consumers very worried

about losing their jobs. record high

share of consumers think business

conditions are worsening. I mean, we

know a lot of the soft data isn't great.

Inflation

expectations. Uh consumers worried more

about their jobs. This is true. We saw

this in the uh consumer uh conference

board survey as well that people are

more concerned uh about uh here

consumers expecting fewer jobs in the

next six months, nearly as high as April

of 2009. So, I just think it's

interesting when you sort of combine uh

what you're seeing in data from multiple

different sources, you can really get a

good picture of what's going on uh in

the economy. And again, the the broad

question is how long-term damaging is a

lot of this going to be? And is the

medicine of uh you know fewer tariffs

basically going to be going to act

rapidly enough to help us recover? I

don't know. But I know that there's hope

and that's again why I suggest trailing

stops because I think you know 476 we

could break out of this and run to 494

or 490 you know this this mid490s range

here but uh but we'll probably have much

lower levels later this year if that

recession truly materializes will almost

certainly be a lot lower and that's why

I think it sets up for such an

opportunity to maybe trim uh as as we

get a little bit of sort of like a FOMO

rally mostly because you got a lot folks

who look at stocks especially like

Palanteer which benefits by the way off

government contracts and uh you know

sort of doing if you will but I mean

Palanteer is almost at all-time highs.

Uh this thing trades for like an eight

peg. It's it's very very expensive. But

a lot of this is driven by this retail

belief that this is the one beneficiary

of the Trump administration. Uh and uh

you know this kind of FOMO is what

people don't want to miss out on. Uh,

and again, I mean, if I'm in Palanteer,

I'm setting trailing stops, you know,

for for a potential recession reset back

down to probably a fair value closer to

about 40 bucks. Certainly not as low as

20. Anything under 40 would be a steal.

Uh, it could happen, but uh, we'll see.

Anyway, thanks so much for watching,

folks. We'll see you in the next one.

Goodbye and good luck. Why not advertise

these things that you told us here? I

feel like nobody else knows about this.

We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber,

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.