i'm sorry

hey everyone me Kevin here I want to

apologize for a few things number one

the turbulence that it seems like in my

YouTube titles and so I'm going to try

to be a little bit more clear with the

YouTube titles but also we got to talk

about what the Federal Reserve just said

and what it could mean going

forward I do also have to apologize for

one more thing I did spend a lot of

money on this 3D printed rust

MP5 and I think you should too #n

sponsored but it's okay because we just

doubled our money on call options this

morning look at this baby TMF call

option

$131 entry price boom 260 exit let's go

it's like a 99% move uh that was a call

option this morning remember we got a

coupon code expiring today what a what a

date I have a double on a coupon code

expiration day okay listen let's talk

fed okay so here's why I think uh

especially after this jobs report this

morning the jobs report this morning you

know it's going to get revised down I'm

not going to sit you sit here and read

you all the numbers out of it the last

one got revised down this one got uh you

know came in lower than expected we had

people removed from the labor force

which actually weirdly lowered the

unemployment rate but the numbers aren't

good we're adding over half a million

part-time workers we're losing about

over 400,000 full-time workers workers

might be uh you know in a place where we

are seeing that nervousness expanding

and you're finally getting fed officials

like Waller who just came out and spoke

and said look it might be appropriate to

frontload Cuts that's a 50 signal by the

way now Waller doesn't see a recession

but by him arguing hey it's time to

frontload Cuts it's a sign that people

like Waller and D they're starting to

get a little bit nervous that they've

overdone it and they've gone too far I

think with Waller's comments this

morning daily yesterday I think we're

almost certainly going to get a 50 basis

point cut uh here on September 18th I

want to show you why take a look at this

analysis I wrote Right Here If the Fed

Cuts 50 at each meeting between now and

may we might be too low I mean I

personally think we're probably going to

go back to 2% by the end of next year

but I think 2.25 by May is too

optimistic probably means you're going

into recession which is actually not

optimistic uh if we cut by 25 I think

you're going to be too slow so I

actually think the course we're going to

see here is a

505050 then 25 25 25 and these 25s will

depend on the signals that we get from

the data but think about it this way you

can't start with 25 and then go 50 but

you could start with 50 and then reduce

to 25s as you start getting closer to

that neutral rate all what the signal is

is clear now though rates are too tight

so you got to get a 50 slash when you

get that 50 slash you're going to have

markets that still have to price in

actually getting a 50 now I'll tell you

what markets are pricing in right now

they're pricing in a 64% chance of a 50

basis point cut that I think is going to

move up to 100% which I think is going

to take the yield curve uh not only to

the point where we have even more of a

steep yield curve I mean look at the 10e

today is down 6.4 the 2E is down 10.8

basis points this is a steepening yield

curve we are now positive on the yield

curve by about four basis points the

more rapidly this becomes positive the

closer we might be to a recession and

this is where I also honestly want to

apologize well I'll tell you what I want

to apologize in a moment but I want to

show you why I made this why I was able

to double this option this morning I

told course members this morning I go

this is is weird we had a bad labor

report and a bad revision why the hell

are yields going up this is abnormal so

right about here I entered a trade

betting that yields would continue to

fall because I thought this was Bond

profit taking and I think that's exactly

what it was my bet was that yields could

go back down to -6 basis points they

went to like -7 there for a minute it's

crazy and I thought at bare minimum we

would be slightly below where we were

before for the jobs report that's why I

decided to go for a call option on a

ticker called TMF which is a triple

leverag bet on bonds basically the 20

year so uh that worked out great that

worked out well wonderful but I actually

think that this trajectory is going to

continue substantially and this is

something that I've been talking about

with course members for a while and I

just basically yeed my Robin Hood

portfolio which I don't have a lot in my

Robin Hood portfolio

relative to my other portfolios but I

basically just yeed my Robin Hood

portfolio into uh uh

TLT and you could see it's done

remarkably well here over the last three

months I mean we went from what is this

it was an $80,000 portfolio to like 192

it did go down there for a moment as

yield spiked to like 151 but you know

now it's like 235 or whatever that's the

only thing that's sitting in there is

TLT like I'm so confident that that

rates are coming down obviously I could

be wrong but I'm dumping my money into

this because I I think the the beted is

pretty obvious uh that the fed's behind

the curve or they're going to wake up to

realizing this and that's what we're

getting with Waller commentary today I

also think we're getting 50 I think

we're getting 50 because think about it

on the way up you went 75 75 75 50 50 50

25 25 25 as they get closer they

calibrate more narrowly okay so now on

the way down you should maybe you even

go 75 go down I mean they're not going

to that's highly unlikely because the

Market's not expecting that but you

could so I think you go 50 and then you

go what's the data oh let's go 50 again

if the data starts coming in hot Go 25

or skip a meeting you could always do

that you could go 50 skip a meeting and

it's kind of like doing 2 25s so but you

can't go 25 and then go 50 because

you're signaling that you're screwing up

now you're accelerating the pace it cuts

weird so they're going to go 50 that's

my bet uh but I do want to talk about

what I wanted to apologize for so we

wrote this out in the course member live

stream and I thought it was really cool

uh in addition to our analysis that we

did on broadcom's uh backlog uh I wanted

to show you this look at this when Kevin

has been bearish I know people like oh

Kevin you're always bearish but I'm

actually not always bearish on November

26 2021 I DED my hair red and the market

crashed for the next 7 to eight months I

got bearish here I actually shorted Arc

with s Arc with a $3 million short

but I actually paper handed that way too

early in January of 2022 you all know I

went very bearish in January I got the

sh9t on the terminal you know which the

ninth letter of the alphabet is I which

is crazy but I went bullish to early so

generally I'm a bull I did go bearish

March and April you could go back and

watch my videos of that of this year and

we did have a little bit of a market

pullback and I've been bearish since

July so I know people look at me they're

like Kevin you're just always a doom and

gloomer bear but then when you look over

here you're like pre pandemic I bought

every single dip during the pandemic

v-shaped recovery I bought every Larry

cudow dip I could I literally refinanced

all of my homes in March and in late

March my refinances closed I plowed it

all into the stock market and I mean

that was a pretty lucky timing bet

because those those Investments made

bang in February of 20121 the market

started falling I got prey on the

Bloomberg terminal but I incorrectly

stayed bullish

in October I dyed my hair green and we

had the after I you know lost the

election in California we had a massive

rally in November of

2021 and in late 22 when I launched my

ETF I thought we were closer to the

bottom we called for the Nike the

volatile Nike Swoosh which we maintained

in 2023 and I even went green hair in

November of 2023 so like I'm a bull much

more than I'm a bear but I just have to

be honest right now I'm very very

bearish I think we are literally the

quote of the day is One Market

correction away from a recession and I

want you to look at this by the way the

option that I played on TMF I just

wanted I'm going to just a free lesson

here okay I went for the $60 option on

this that's because we bottomed here at

6064 and I wasn't paying a lot for

extrinsic value I don't like to pay a

lot for X I want to pay a lot for

intrinsic value and so I went in the

money so basically every little bit that

this went up i' I've just printed money

now had I I sold at a

double some people who who also went in

on this trade who got the alert and are

like Kevin you know because remember

this these aren't designed to be copied

people look and go Kevin I agree with

you I think that's a good trajectory

some people are still in this trade and

they're up close to a 3X now which is

crazy because I think 100% intrinsic

value on this would be $343 right now I

got in at 131 that's it's a . 6X if

someone was still holding right now

crazy obviously the market sing down but

but again a few things I just want to

apologize for here uh one you know I

know I've been coming across as a dirty

bear and there have been so many bearish

videos uh I don't I'm not always a bear

uh I think you know that I think the FED

talking about front loading Cuts is a

clear as day 50 signal I think Mary Daly

was pretty negative yesterday as well I

think it makes logical sense to get a 50

from the fed and right down the calendar

for the FED meetings they're right here

sept 18th which is a summary of economic

projections meeting so we'll get

projections as well I think that's going

to tank yields man I because this is

where they could go 50 like let's write

this

down prediction is they go 50 signal

rates at uh probably 4% year end which

is 125 BP of cuts and Signal uh end 2025

at probably 3% something like that

that's my prediction uh this by the way

is roughly in line with what the market

thinks I don't think the sep will move

much though but I think the the the 50

will help and then you'll get more seps

over you know at every other meeting

basically docu sign just a warning docu

sign is an example of what happens uh

when mega growth turns into nominal

growth docus sign now trades at 2.6 Peg

forward year end with just

6.45% average expected growth over the

next four years docu sign was growing

like crazy during the pandemic the stock

ran up to

$314 now it's down 81% from its peak

it's cash flow positive and it has a peg

of only 2.6 which is totally reasonable

for a software company why is it down

81% from the peak because the growth

crashed the stock market rewards growth

fed Williams ready to start the process

unemployment rate still low despite the

rise this makes me nervous because

statistically they could say that

unemployment hits a low you know has

been historically low around 5 a

half% uh that makes me nervous because I

think that's going to make them cut too

slowly which which I don't like but

anyway so I'm going to be try to be a

little bit more clear with my titles I

don't think I'm a Perma bear I think you

know that I'm just going to keep trying

to do my best and put one foot in front

of the the other you know there's a

coupon codee expiring today we've got I

think two seats left in The Mastermind

metkevin.com Mastermind that takes place

at the beginning of next month coupon

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today email us at staff meetkevin.com if

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Estate stocks you could be Allin vo how

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October 1 anyway thank you so much for

being here I love you all really wish

you the best grab that coupon code

thanks so much folks see you soon

bye these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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