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Imbalance - Bootcamp Ep.4

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0:00

Okay. Hello and welcome to episode 4 of

0:02

the technical boot camp. This week we

0:04

are talking about the topic of

0:06

imbalances. Now imbalance is a really

0:08

strong concept that gives you more

0:10

clarity around market directions and act

0:13

as magnet price areas that when you

0:15

understand how to identify imbalances.

0:17

You'll be able to find areas the market

0:19

is likely to be drawn into that before

0:21

you wouldn't have quite spotted. So, in

0:23

this class, we're going to go through

0:24

the theory of imbalance, why it happens,

0:26

how to identify and plot imbalances

0:28

correctly on the chart, and how to use

0:30

these correctly plotted imbalances to

0:33

identify strong entries and targets,

0:35

avoid premature trades, and make sure

0:37

the trades you get into are the highest

0:39

probability and the highest riskreward.

0:41

So, with that said, let's jump into the

0:43

class. Okay, so a quick warning before

0:46

we get into this class. This will not

0:47

make full sense to you unless you've

0:49

watched my supply and demand and market

0:52

structure videos which is episodes two

0:56

and three of season one of the boot

0:58

camp. Okay, so the previous episodes to

0:59

this. If you haven't watched those, go

1:01

and watch them now. Then this video will

1:03

make more sense. If you have, good.

1:04

You're set up to understand this. Okay,

1:07

so today as you know we're going to talk

1:09

about imbalance. Now imbalance we very

1:12

briefly covered on in the previous

1:14

class. It is an open price range between

1:17

a demand zone or a supply zone and then

1:19

where price is currently trading at the

1:22

end of a leg of price action. Okay. So

1:24

in the example we have marked on the

1:26

chart here, our imbalance would be this

1:29

run in price. It's basically the push

1:32

from this demand zone and then the

1:33

market hasn't retested the demand zone

1:35

yet. So we have an open price range

1:38

between these levels which becomes our

1:40

imbalance. All right. Now, the way that

1:42

we generally want to trade imbalance to

1:43

give it you from a very surface uh level

1:45

view before we go deeper into it is we

1:48

want to see imbalances filled. Okay? So,

1:51

we're going to be utilizing imbalance to

1:53

work out where the market might go to

1:55

next, which can be used for entries. For

1:57

example, if we see an uptrending market

2:00

like this, we have a demand zone open

2:02

like this and we've created an imbalance

2:04

in the market like this. Then we see

2:07

this imbalance as a high probability

2:10

kind of price range for the market to

2:12

draw back through to trade towards the

2:14

demand where we would then look to take

2:17

an entry. So when we get into this

2:18

range, we would be looking to take an

2:20

entry for a buy which would take us into

2:23

new highs. Okay. So that is the first

2:25

way we use imbalances. When we identify

2:27

one in line with the direction that we

2:29

want to trade, we use it to basically

2:31

await the market's return through the

2:33

imbalance and then we buy from there. So

2:35

it stops us in that right from

2:36

prematurely entering trades such as

2:38

getting into a buy up here. If we see

2:40

the imbalance is open, we know the best

2:42

thing we can do is to wait. Now another

2:44

use case for imbalance is for targets

2:47

for trades. Okay. So if we take a look

2:49

at this bit of price action, which

2:51

obviously if you watch the previous

2:52

classes, you'll understand is an

2:54

uptrend. Well, if we see that, for

2:56

example, we'll keep it broad for now,

2:57

but you'll see examples of this on real

2:59

charts. If we see that prior to this

3:01

movement, we had a area of supply, let's

3:04

say, uh, up here, and then we had a big

3:06

selling move and then we started to

3:08

shift that trend to the upside, well,

3:10

this whole price range here is actually

3:12

going to be then imbalanced because we

3:14

have a supply zone, this one here, that

3:16

hasn't yet been filled by price on a

3:19

return into that area. So we can

3:20

actually utilize this imbalance that we

3:22

have to take a trade up towards it. All

3:25

right. So they're also good not just for

3:27

entries but for identifying where to

3:30

take the market to. So we can use this

3:32

imbalance here to understand if we want

3:34

to buy it's going to be from this point.

3:35

And then we can use imbalances over to

3:37

the left previous imbalances that are

3:39

still open as high probability points to

3:41

target. Because if we know there's an

3:43

imbalance here, it's very likely that

3:45

the market will trade through that open

3:47

price range to fill that area for us to

3:49

trade from. Okay? So, it's basically a

3:51

way of seeing where the market's going

3:54

to go next. And we use this information

3:58

to basically find entries for trade

4:01

um and also to find targets for trades.

4:04

Okay? So, that's what imbalance is all

4:06

about. Where is the market going next?

4:09

Now the theory behind imbalance and why

4:11

these things work comes down to that

4:12

battle between buying and selling that

4:15

we saw previously. Okay, in the supply

4:18

and demand class and in the market

4:19

structure class, we discussed how these

4:21

movements, the protrend movements that

4:22

create breaks of structure and come from

4:25

areas of supply or demand. So in this

4:26

case, this is a bullish move. So we come

4:28

from demand, we have a rally higher,

4:30

breaking the high. This is an impulsive

4:32

move and what it indicates while being

4:34

an impulsive protrend movement that has

4:36

created a new uh leg of structure inside

4:38

of an uptrend. What it indicates is that

4:40

buying is clearly in control from this

4:43

point all the way up to the end of the

4:44

move. We know that buying is in control

4:46

because the price has appreciated

4:48

without resistance from sellers. And we

4:50

know they're in control cleanly because

4:52

they've pushed through a previous high.

4:54

Again, showing that buyers here are

4:56

stronger than buyers at any other point

4:58

previous in the range. Okay, so we have

5:00

strong buying and weak selling. Now,

5:02

when we discussed demand, we said that

5:03

this was like auction theory. Okay, and

5:06

to explain this to you just real quickly

5:08

again, all a demand zone is is a

5:10

discount price zone. So, it's two price

5:13

levels, which is basically going to be

5:15

from the low 161.52 to the high 161.61.

5:20

That is a price range that was seen

5:21

previously when the buying here took

5:24

place last time as a very good price to

5:26

buy this asset. Okay, so we've seen a

5:29

lot of people saw this as a good price

5:30

to buy the asset. They bought the asset

5:32

in massive numbers to the degree that

5:34

they overrote any pressure from sellers

5:35

and the market went and made a new high.

5:37

Now, this stands true. This is a

5:39

discount price zone. So, with that in

5:41

mind, and very much like what we

5:42

discussed in the previous class

5:44

regarding why demand zones and supply

5:46

zones get retested. Well, we have here

5:48

an open price range that isn't seen as

5:50

such a nice price price to buy this

5:52

asset. we know that any buyers would

5:55

much prefer to buy this from a discount

5:57

than at the current market prices. So

5:58

when we create that imbalance by

6:01

creating the impulsive drive higher, we

6:02

basically have a a good open range here

6:04

for the market to return through to

6:07

trade into the discount price area

6:09

because that's going to entice buyers a

6:11

lot more than if you know they were to

6:13

just buy directly at the high at a

6:15

premium price. So, an imbalance is

6:17

basically just an open price range

6:19

created by impulsive buying or selling

6:21

that essentially shows us where the most

6:24

premium and most discounted price areas

6:26

are to buy and sell from. So, here this

6:28

supply, this push down created a premium

6:31

price range that sellers would love to

6:33

sell at again. Now that we're trading

6:35

down here, it's less likely that we get

6:37

significant selling coming in than it is

6:38

to get significant selling coming in

6:40

from a premium price level. And then the

6:42

same on this buy side. Now that we have

6:43

this impulsive drive higher, proving to

6:45

us that this was seen as a discount or a

6:47

fair price to buy the asset. It's much

6:49

more likely that if we get back to this

6:50

point, we see massive amounts of buying

6:52

than it is to see massive amounts of

6:54

buying at what traders will see as a

6:55

premium price. Okay? So, you have to

6:58

think just behind the scenes of what

6:59

we're actually seeing in markets. It's

7:01

more about where is the good price to

7:03

buy or sell an asset. That is where the

7:06

high probability and biggest

7:07

opportunities will come from because

7:09

that is where the majority of buying

7:11

will take place, right? Would you buy a

7:13

car for $20,000 if there was a good

7:16

likelihood that you may be able to get

7:18

it very soon for $12,000? Probably not.

7:21

You'd wait and see if it returns to that

7:23

price that you like. And if it does, it

7:24

comes into that discount price range.

7:26

Well, now you think, wow, this is a

7:27

deal. I'm going to buy it up in mass.

7:29

Okay? And that is what we see in terms

7:30

of supply and demand in the markets. And

7:32

that is what imbalances just help us to

7:35

identify. When we see an open price

7:37

range, we understand there is a high

7:38

likelihood at some point in the near

7:40

future the market will return through it

7:42

to trade into a discount or premium

7:44

price area also known in this case as

7:46

demand zone or a supply zone. Therefore

7:48

allowing us to number one use those

7:50

areas as entries and number two use

7:52

those areas as targets. And number three

7:54

the final thing is just simply to avoid

7:56

taking bad trades. Okay? Instead of

7:58

buying up here when you understand

7:59

imbalances, you will almost always be

8:01

taking your buys down here. Instead of

8:03

selling down here when you understand

8:05

imbalance, you will almost always wait

8:07

for the market to return to that premium

8:09

price area where that bigger higher

8:12

riskreward, higher probability short

8:14

setup can commence. Okay, so that is the

8:17

basic concept of imbalances, why they

8:19

take place and what they help us to do.

8:20

With that said, we'll go a little bit

8:22

deeper into this just now. Okay. So to

8:25

identify an imbalance that's the first

8:27

thing of course we need to know. We are

8:28

looking for simple open impulsive price

8:31

ranges. It can be made up of one candle.

8:33

It can be made up of multiple candles.

8:34

But there is a simple rule to identify

8:36

an imbalance and we'll go through that

8:38

just now. Now the first thing with

8:40

imbalances is if we are looking at

8:42

protrend imbalances i.e. this market is

8:44

in a downtrend. We want to determine

8:46

which way this market is then going

8:47

which in this case due to this break of

8:49

structure and the continual formation of

8:51

lower lows and lower highs. This is a

8:53

downtrending market. So we would be

8:55

looking to sell from this market and we

8:58

would be looking to sell from supply

9:00

zones. Okay? So we don't look at demand

9:02

zones in this. We don't look at buys. We

9:03

look at sells from supply zones. So if

9:07

you were up to date with the boot camp

9:08

so far, you'll understand the supply

9:10

zones I'd be looking at would really be

9:12

this one. This is the last candle before

9:14

an impulsive candle. Okay? And then this

9:16

one here, which is the last candle

9:18

before the impulse. Now if you remember

9:19

what we discussed in supply and demand

9:21

as well, we know that this one is the

9:23

extreme zone. So the best way to

9:26

approach this can be sell limits. The

9:28

extreme zone is simply for anyone who

9:30

does not know or needs a reminder the

9:32

furthest zone in the current leg of

9:35

price action from where price currently

9:37

is. Okay, so it's like the final supply

9:39

or demand zone if you're faced with

9:41

multiple supply or demand zones. So we

9:42

have this zone here which obviously in

9:44

this leg of price action is actually

9:46

kind of in the discounted area. Not

9:48

great for selling to be honest at this

9:50

point, but it is still a valid supply

9:52

zone. And then we have the extreme zone

9:54

which is this zone here. And if you take

9:56

a look previous to this, there is no

9:58

extra supply zones. They've all been

10:00

filled. Okay? Now, you might be

10:02

thinking, why would this not be a supply

10:04

zone? And well, that's simply because

10:05

the imbalance no longer exists. Okay?

10:07

And this is how we begin to identify the

10:10

imbalances in the market and which zones

10:12

are good and are bad. So when we are

10:13

looking at a supply or a demand zone, we

10:15

want to make sure that it has imbalance

10:17

into it. If it does not have imbalance

10:19

into it, it is not something we would

10:20

look to trade from. So if the market was

10:22

to return to this top zone, we would not

10:24

want to sell from there, okay, from

10:26

inside of this zone because it's already

10:29

been hit. So we created supply. We had

10:32

an impulsive move away, but then the

10:34

market came back through and we see this

10:36

wick here. So from this candle and this

10:39

candle the wick fills the open impulse

10:42

that was created and that would be where

10:44

the imbalance was. So once this wick has

10:46

return to hit this area there is no

10:48

longer any imbalance in this supply.

10:51

Okay. If we take a look at the next

10:52

movement however this supply zone we see

10:54

that we have a wick here. So this candle

10:58

then we have an impulsive drive lower

11:00

and then the next wick is actually here.

11:02

So that creates we'll draw it as a box.

11:04

Here to here is an open imbalance.

11:07

Right? This wick does not fill the gap.

11:09

This wick does not meet this wick. So

11:10

the space between there is the

11:12

imbalance. Right? So let's call that

11:15

imb. And what we will do is we'll make

11:18

this gray for now. And we'll just keep

11:20

in mind that gray boxes will be used to

11:22

mark imbalance. Okay. So with this

11:24

imbalance remaining that means this

11:26

extreme supply zone is still open and

11:28

still probable to be retested. So if we

11:31

were looking for a sell from where we

11:32

are, we have of course this imbalance

11:35

and this extreme zone to consider. Now

11:36

the reason that this lower supply as

11:38

well is still valid is because there is

11:40

again a remaining imbalance. If we take

11:43

a look at where the wicks meet the

11:44

wicks, we've got a wick here. We have an

11:47

impulsive candle still not filled by the

11:49

wick and we have the wicks previous to

11:50

it still not filling this wick.

11:52

Therefore, we have another imbalance.

11:55

Okay. So here we have two supply zones,

11:57

two imbalances. There's a supply zone up

11:59

here that's been filled. So that is now

12:00

written off. We don't focus on that

12:01

anymore. And what we would do is

12:03

basically use these imbalances to

12:04

understand the market is highly probable

12:07

to come back to retest one of these

12:09

areas before we sell. Okay. Now

12:12

obviously as we've discussed, we like to

12:13

sell from premium price areas. With this

12:16

zone being so close to price, we would

12:18

be less interested in this one. And with

12:19

the remaining imbalance that sits above,

12:22

we still have basically a magnet price

12:24

area that the market is likely to be

12:26

drawn through to sell from the extreme

12:28

zone. So in a case like this, we would

12:30

heavily focus on the extreme zone and we

12:33

would focus a lot less so on this lower

12:35

zone because there's still imbalance

12:37

remaining into the higher point, the

12:39

extreme zone that is likely to basically

12:42

draw price in like a magnet. Okay, so

12:44

what we're going to do is now run the

12:46

market forward. See what happens. You

12:48

see here up to this point, we still have

12:49

imbalance open. Now with these new blue

12:51

candles, the imbalance is of course

12:53

shrinking. We are getting closer to the

12:55

supply zone, but again, we still don't

12:58

anticipate any notable movements until

13:00

the full imbalance is filled. So, if

13:02

you've learned ICT, uh there's a take on

13:06

imbalances. It's basically imbalances

13:08

remade um to to look like a new concept

13:11

called FVGs, right? It's fair value

13:13

gaps. The idea with those is you trade

13:15

out of imbalances. So, you would sell

13:17

like now for some reason. To me, it

13:19

doesn't really make much logical sense.

13:20

kind of goes against what um you know

13:23

this whole thing is showing us. But if

13:25

you trade FVGs or you know FVGs, this is

13:28

the kind of original way of doing it

13:30

before FVGs was created to sound smart.

13:32

Okay. So basically what we're looking

13:34

for is not a trade out of the imbalance.

13:36

We are looking for a full fill of the

13:38

imbalance into there and then we look

13:40

for a sell once the zone has been met

13:42

and when there is no more remaining

13:44

imbalance. And if we think about why

13:45

this is just you know dial it back to

13:48

the supply demand class supply zones

13:50

show discount price areas where

13:52

significant selling has taken place

13:54

previous as indicated by the initial

13:56

impulsive move. So therefore if we can

13:58

come back between these two discount or

14:00

in this case premium price levels. We

14:02

are then likely to see new selling step

14:04

in from what is seen as a proven premium

14:06

price to sell from. Okay. So the

14:08

imbalance shrinks with every candle that

14:09

pushes close to the zone. But until the

14:11

zone is fully retested and the imbalance

14:13

is completely closed, no trading is to

14:16

be done. So there we go. You can see at

14:18

this point just here, this wick, this

14:19

has filled the remaining imbalance. Now

14:22

that there is no imbalance, the market

14:24

is what we call efficient. And we're

14:25

going to talk about efficient ranges in

14:27

the next class. But this becomes the

14:29

point of which you would then want to

14:30

sell from because there is no remaining

14:32

imbalance in this entire leg of price

14:34

action from the high to the low.

14:36

Therefore, this is the most probable

14:38

point for us to make the next leg of

14:41

bearish price action, which would give

14:43

us a clean trade from the supply down to

14:46

the low. Okay? Because we are expecting

14:47

the market to continue the downtrend now

14:49

that all open imbalance has been filled.

14:52

So now the price has hit the premium

14:53

price range, the premium selling area.

14:56

We then get a new influx of sellers from

14:57

the area of supply that brings the

14:59

market to a new low and therefore fills

15:01

a profitable trade of around 5.6R. Okay,

15:05

so that is how we utilize imbalance or

15:07

how we identify imbalance and then we

15:09

always just have to think about the

15:10

story behind the market as we've done

15:12

here working out why would we not focus

15:14

on the lower zone. Why do we focus on

15:16

this one? Well, that's because the

15:17

imbalance is large. It's still open.

15:19

This is the most premium price point in

15:21

the range. This one although yes, it is

15:23

still a valid supply with imbalance,

15:25

it's more of what we would call an

15:26

inducement. We'll get into that in

15:28

liquidity. Um but to explain it simply,

15:30

it's still kind of a discount price,

15:32

right? It's a pretty low price in

15:33

comparison to if we were to see a full

15:35

reversal and retest of the full higher

15:38

extreme zone. That's going to be the

15:39

more premium price area for selling to

15:42

take place. So there you go. That is a

15:43

quick visualization of how to mark

15:45

supply and demand in line with

15:47

imbalances. To identify imbalance,

15:49

you're pretty much always going to begin

15:51

with a supply or a demand zone, which

15:53

therefore means you need to begin with

15:55

identifying which way the trend is

15:56

going. And when you have the supply or

15:58

demand zone, so just to show you very

15:59

quickly, when you have that in this

16:01

case, supply marked, you are looking for

16:04

an open price range where wicks do not

16:06

touch wicks, candle bodies do not touch

16:08

candle bodies. There is just an open

16:11

push in price and there is no fill of

16:13

that just yet. That becomes your

16:14

imbalance. And then when the imbalance

16:16

is filled, that is your trigger point to

16:19

get you into a trade. Okay. Now, as you

16:21

can see, obviously with the imbalance is

16:23

highly probable to be filled. We don't

16:25

have to just use this for entries. We

16:27

can also use this for targets. Now, it's

16:29

more contextual. You don't want to just

16:30

counter trend everything. But, for

16:33

example, if we were to be given the

16:34

opportunity to make a buy from here,

16:36

this becomes a very, very simple target

16:39

because we see that imbalance above. And

16:40

we know that's likely to be filled,

16:42

which allows us to take a buy from down

16:44

there up to that point. And we know for

16:46

a fact this is the perfect place to get

16:48

out of that trade because the imbalance

16:50

will then be completely filled and

16:52

redundant. Okay. So in this case, I

16:54

would say there was no opportunity to

16:56

make a buy here. But in some

16:57

opportunities, as you will see, there is

16:59

room for us to actually buy through

17:01

imbalance ranges towards open supply or

17:04

demand zones before we shift that bias

17:05

and go the other way. Okay, so let's

17:07

take a look at an example of this in the

17:09

market. Then this is a market that is

17:11

trending to the upside. Now, we're on

17:13

UJ, so we're kind of into blue skies

17:15

really. There isn't too much in the way

17:16

of using imbalances as targets for this

17:19

that we would want to do. But if we

17:20

built the buyers to buy and then we saw

17:22

this pattern in the market which you all

17:24

know as the standard confirmation

17:27

basically we have lower lows and lower

17:29

highs. We've seen the initial shift into

17:31

higher highs basically confirmed here.

17:34

Now we haven't seen it confirmed

17:35

perfectly at this point because of

17:36

wicks. But when we make this large

17:38

bullish closure here we basically have

17:40

then the understanding that we likely

17:41

want to buy this market. We use

17:43

imbalances then to identify the best

17:45

point for us to actually make these buys

17:47

from. We can see that this impulsive

17:49

candle has created a large imbalance

17:51

between the wick here and then where

17:53

price is currently trading all the way

17:55

up here. Okay. So, if we want to buy,

17:58

are we going to market execute from

18:00

here? Are we going to market execute

18:01

from here? Are we going to buy up here?

18:03

No, we are not going to do any of that

18:05

because we would get a subpar entry.

18:07

Okay? If we were to place longs there,

18:09

get into a trade, stop loss would either

18:11

have to be in an incredibly dangerous

18:13

location. And by the way, if your stop

18:15

loss is inside of an imbalance, you're

18:17

basically asking to get destroyed. So

18:19

our stop would have to be at a minimum

18:20

down here and then maybe even under this

18:22

low. So the riskreward on this is really

18:24

not going to be all too good. So if we

18:26

want to kind of get the best possible

18:28

entry where we identify the imbalance

18:30

and then we take a look at where that's

18:32

going to lead us into. In this instance,

18:34

our demand zone is going to be from here

18:36

through to here. And there is a clear

18:38

imbalance into this point which makes

18:40

this a high probability point for us to

18:41

then buy from. Now, there is another

18:43

point as well. If you take a look here,

18:45

we've actually got some imbalance that

18:46

leads us into this point. And we could

18:48

call this one the extreme because this

18:50

is, of course, the furthest from price.

18:52

However, in this instance, if we take a

18:54

look at the size of the imbalance that's

18:56

been created, we've had a tiny imbalance

18:59

created at this point. Then, we had this

19:00

kind of reaccumulation, which is a

19:02

sideways candle, uh, indecision candle

19:04

with large wicks up and down. Then, we

19:07

had this very clear impulse away. And

19:08

this is still in what we would classify

19:10

as a discount price region. You know,

19:12

it's quite far away from where price is

19:14

currently trading. So factoring the size

19:16

of the impulses that have been made, we

19:18

can see that this zone created the

19:19

largest impulse. Therefore, this zone

19:21

saw the highest amount of buying. Okay,

19:24

the highest consideration from buyers

19:26

basically. So we could look at this zone

19:28

as a viable point to buy from. If we

19:29

wanted to be super safe about this, we

19:31

would go stops under the low entirely. I

19:33

would be completely fine with that way

19:36

uh executing trades here. So, what this

19:38

could look like, thanks to the imbalance

19:39

we've now located, would be a buy here

19:41

and a stop just under this low. The more

19:44

aggressive take would be a stop just

19:45

here, which would be fine. Again, this

19:47

stop is in an imbalance, but it's from a

19:50

very notable buying point, which created

19:52

a massive impulsive push higher. Okay,

19:54

so that would be okay in most cases.

19:56

We'll keep it very simplified for here,

19:58

though. And then, if you just wanted to

19:59

look for a let's call it four target,

20:02

why not? Uh, if you wanted to look for a

20:03

4% return, your trade would look

20:06

something like this. Okay. And what

20:07

we're doing here is we're seeing

20:09

basically the shift in structure which

20:11

really come through here. And now we are

20:13

identifying imbalance which is that open

20:15

price range to find the best possible

20:17

point for us to buy from. And we can

20:18

factor in here some of those other

20:20

lessons about momentum

20:23

and about impulsive moves and the real

20:26

you know true utility behind uh supply

20:28

and demand zones which is that they are

20:30

showing us areas of significant buying

20:32

or selling intent. And we can decipher

20:34

from that that this zone is less

20:36

interesting than this zone because this

20:38

zone created a much more significant

20:40

bullish move up. So that would pretty

20:42

much lock us in with this being our

20:43

trade setup. And then if we let the

20:45

market run forward, you'll see exactly

20:47

why we don't buy here. And we wait for

20:49

those imbalances to be filled cuz as you

20:51

see that we have this slow pull back

20:54

down. And as soon as that area of

20:55

imbalance is filled and the demand zone

20:58

is retested, we're back in that

20:59

discounted price range. And that sets us

21:01

up with a very nice opportunity to catch

21:03

a very healthy profit. Now, compare that

21:05

to buying without an understanding of

21:07

imbalances. If you were buying from the

21:09

market up here, you're looking at a 1.2%

21:11

return. Whereas buying down here with

21:13

the safest stop is actually going to be

21:15

3.75% return, which is obviously a much

21:19

healthier trade, almost 3x. So, that is

21:22

how we utilize imbalances to identify

21:24

where we should and shouldn't be getting

21:25

into trades. Now, we're going to take a

21:28

look at an example where imbalance, if

21:30

you don't understand this, can be rather

21:32

tricky, but if you do, is actually a

21:35

very, very good strong thing to know to

21:38

help you to take good trades and avoid

21:40

bad ones. Okay, so we're looking at

21:41

basically a downward piece of price

21:43

action right now. So, we'd be looking to

21:45

sell. If we take a look at from the high

21:46

of this movement, we have our first

21:48

supply, which is basically this blue

21:49

candle. We extended to the high of the

21:51

gray candle because of the wick that's

21:53

been retested. Then, we take a look at

21:54

the gray candle here. We see a new

21:56

imbalance formed there that's been

21:58

pulled back and retested. Then we have

22:00

these two points. So we have this one,

22:02

this large indecision candle just here

22:05

before an impulse away. And then just

22:06

beneath that, we have this more notable

22:08

one, which is a more confined indecision

22:10

candle before a larger, more significant

22:12

impulse. So taking a look at this one,

22:14

we had an impulse, but it didn't break

22:16

any structural points until we created

22:18

this new supply before we had a very

22:20

strong bearish impulse down. So, of

22:22

these two zones, if we think about that

22:23

battle between buying and selling, this

22:25

one is stronger than this one because

22:28

this one didn't create any meaningful

22:29

impulses that broke structure. This just

22:31

kicked off a small drive before a new

22:33

consolidation and therefore a more

22:35

significant impulse. So, of these two

22:37

zones, this would be the one that we

22:39

would be interested in selling from.

22:40

Now, beneath that, we have, and this is

22:42

where people get caught out. This is the

22:44

thing I'm showing you. We have a supply

22:46

zone here, which does have imbalance

22:47

from it. And people would picture this

22:49

as a point to sell from. Now, this is

22:51

what we call inducement. We're going to

22:53

get into inducement later in the series.

22:55

It's important, but the time is just not

22:57

right just yet, but you will understand

22:59

at a base level what this is in just one

23:01

moment. So, we can see an inducement as

23:03

basically a trap. It's a zone that looks

23:06

good, but because of things like

23:08

liquidity and imbalances, it's actually

23:09

a point that is less likely to create

23:12

reactions than we would like it to. So

23:14

because of the imbalance we still have

23:17

this one would be more so the true zone

23:20

that we would want to trade from. Okay.

23:21

This one no impulsive break. So no

23:24

interest there. This one impulsive

23:26

breakdown. Definitely interest here.

23:28

This one again impulsive breakdown. But

23:30

we see between these two zones there is

23:32

this tiny piece of imbalance. And yes

23:35

although it's tiny it still matters.

23:37

Okay. Tiny imbalances are still likely

23:39

to be filled. And this is where people

23:41

go wrong because they will see, well,

23:42

the imbalance is so small, I can ignore

23:45

it. But you shouldn't ignore tiny

23:46

imbalances like this. Because at the end

23:48

of the day, it is still showing open

23:49

orders. It's showing an open price

23:51

range, a gap between where the market is

23:54

now and where the true impulsive,

23:57

decisive selling began. So for us on

23:59

this movement, we would prefer to

24:01

execute from this point. Okay? Right? So

24:03

we'll not worry about the stop.

24:05

Aggressive stops would go there. Safest,

24:06

most conservative stops would go up

24:08

there. Don't worry about that too much.

24:09

We're just looking at the focal target

24:11

entry area and then your entry rather

24:14

than going on this zone. So rather than

24:16

having a trade that looks like this, you

24:18

would have a trade that looks like this.

24:20

Okay? Or with the more conservative stop

24:22

if you want to. But the idea is what we

24:25

don't want to do is trust this zone and

24:27

put our stop loss where the imbalance

24:29

remains because with the remaining

24:30

imbalance, the probability of us trading

24:32

through that point is still very high.

24:35

Okay? And if you take a look what

24:36

happens when we run this market forward,

24:38

we get a drive up. We take out this trap

24:40

or inducement zone. We fill that final

24:43

imbalance and then we have our

24:45

significant sell-off. So even though the

24:47

imbalance is only tiny, it's still

24:49

absolutely relevant because any open

24:51

imbalance, be it a tiny one or a large

24:53

one, is still prone to being filled by

24:56

the market. And if you start trusting

24:57

that these small imbalances won't be

24:59

filled and you start taking trades from

25:01

this position and you're putting your

25:03

stop losses in these points, well,

25:04

you're going to get wicked out or

25:06

stopped out very lightly before the

25:08

market runs in your favor. So consider

25:10

imbalances even if they are small

25:12

because they are still relevant. Doesn't

25:14

matter if they're only one pip, doesn't

25:16

matter if they're 100 pips, they're just

25:17

as relevant as each other. If the

25:19

imbalance is still there from a core

25:21

high probability impulsive structure

25:23

breaking area and you definitely want to

25:24

keep that imbalance in mind, it's likely

25:27

to be filled and you don't want to get

25:28

caught on the wrong side of it. Right

25:30

now, let's take a look at one of those

25:31

examples we said where you can use

25:32

imbalances as targets. So, if we look

25:35

through this downward move that we have

25:37

from this point down, we see that

25:38

basically all of the supply zones that

25:40

have been created have actually been

25:42

filled by price. So, we have these two

25:44

here which have been filled. We then had

25:46

this huge rally which has actually

25:48

started to shift some of the structure

25:49

to the upside. Now if we were

25:51

predominantly bearish on this market

25:52

let's say from the daily perspective and

25:54

we think that once this uh market has

25:56

returned to an imbalance point it will

25:58

reverse back to the downside. Well that

26:00

sets up opportunity for us to actually

26:02

trade with the smaller trend which would

26:03

be this reversal we've seen towards a

26:06

notable point of imbalance. Now given

26:07

this huge impulse we've just had and the

26:09

break of this kind of internal structure

26:11

when we consider it to the context of a

26:13

larger daily downtrend, we would want to

26:15

identify where the supply zones are

26:17

previous. So we just look to the left

26:19

over here and find the core point which

26:22

in this case would be this open

26:24

imbalance which is the highest imbalance

26:25

in this price move and we would say well

26:27

now that we've shifted the structure

26:29

maybe we have some opportunity to trade

26:31

in this new small uptrend towards the

26:35

higher supply. So, because these

26:37

imbalances are likely to be filled,

26:38

right, whether it's near-term or

26:40

long-term, we basically can use these

26:43

imbalances as targets on the way into

26:46

larger trades. So, if we overall think

26:48

this market's going to go down, we can

26:50

say, okay, where's the core point that

26:51

it's likely to come down from? We see

26:53

there's still some remaining imbalance

26:54

just here. So, we could say the most

26:56

probable point for this to go short is

26:58

actually going to be from here. If we

27:00

then see on the smaller picture, we have

27:02

some potential uptrend forming with this

27:05

lower low, lower high, lower low, break

27:08

into a higher high, we could say, well,

27:10

if the market returns to our imbalance

27:12

here, we could potentially trade up

27:15

towards the imbalance here. And then we

27:17

could look to trade down from the

27:19

imbalance there. Okay? So we use big

27:21

picture context of a daily bearish

27:23

market, smaller picture context of a

27:25

4hour bullish market and we [snorts] say

27:27

if we think this market's going to

27:29

return to a core imbalanced area before

27:31

selling off, we can actually use that as

27:32

a target in the meantime. So we could

27:34

look at buying say from there up to

27:37

there. Okay, you can go conservative

27:39

stop under all imbalance or aggressive

27:40

stop under the near-term imbalance and

27:42

you can just run a trade using imbalance

27:44

as your target because your big picture

27:46

context says even if this market then

27:48

reverses bearish, it is highly likely to

27:50

at least first fill the imbalance supply

27:52

zone we've got. Right? So what we're

27:54

doing here is basically saying even

27:57

though the market may remain bearish

27:59

right now in the short term it's bullish

28:00

and we have this clear open imbalance as

28:02

a target that we can run the market

28:04

into. Now, just a small interruption

28:06

from this class. What you're learning

28:08

here about technicals is necessary, but

28:10

technicals alone are not sufficient to

28:12

get you to where you want to go. If

28:13

you've been struggling at trading for

28:15

some time, it's generally not because of

28:17

what you see on the charts, but more so

28:18

because of the habits, risk behavior,

28:20

decision-m under pressure, and

28:22

self-sabotage patterns that form inside

28:24

of the way that you operate. These are

28:26

things that simply don't show up in

28:27

technical analysis. And I've broken all

28:29

of this down in literally a 15minute

28:32

video. I've been through it without

28:33

wasting time. Making it as efficient as

28:35

possible to help you understand how

28:37

systems and things behind the scenes

28:40

that you can't see on the charts are the

28:42

things that actually push you to

28:43

success. So, if you want to learn all

28:45

about this and break out of the losing

28:46

cycle you've been in for however many

28:48

months or years that you've been

28:49

trading, check that out using the link

28:51

in the description, but watch it after

28:52

this class so that you absorb the

28:54

knowledge from this lesson before you go

28:56

over there. It's definitely worth the

28:57

watch. And with that said, let's get

28:59

back to the boot camp. When we scale

29:01

that forward, we see although this was a

29:03

slowmoving market, that's exactly what

29:05

happens. We traded into the imbalanced

29:07

demand zone tapped in creating the buy

29:10

opportunity. We use imbalance as a

29:12

target, the imbalanced supply zone. And

29:14

you see when that imbalanced supply zone

29:15

is then met, the buyer would be closed

29:17

out and you would shift into the short

29:19

side to follow the bigger picture down.

29:20

So as well [clears throat] as using

29:21

imbalances for entries for trades as we

29:24

did here, we can also use them for trade

29:26

targets by targeting imbalance areas

29:29

that are likely to be filled on the

29:30

bigger picture context. We can use

29:32

short-term buyers into selling

29:34

opportunities and that alone can become

29:36

a very good trade. And as you can see,

29:38

because we use this imbalance as the

29:39

target, well, this buy gets the perfect

29:42

exit before the market fully reverses.

29:45

So imbalance is a tool that can be used

29:47

to identify good entries and make sure

29:49

you don't get into trades too soon for

29:51

good targets to make sure you're getting

29:53

out at the highest probable point and

29:55

ultimately just to understand the

29:57

ultimate flow of the market based on

29:59

whether we have imbalances above and

30:01

below and pairing that with supply and

30:03

demand and market structure as we've

30:05

already been through to determine where

30:07

the market reversal points and magnet

30:09

price areas are likely to be. Markets

30:12

will be continually drawn towards

30:13

imbalances. So if you understand where

30:16

those imbalances are and which way the

30:18

market is going, you can use them to

30:19

identify pretty high probability

30:21

opportunities for trades. Okay? So it's

30:23

entries and targets and above all it's

30:28

magnet price areas. We use imbalances to

30:31

identify points that although it might

30:33

look like it now are likely to be filled

30:36

in the near future. And when you

30:37

understand this, you understand

30:38

imbalances, you set yourselves into a

30:40

very good position to continually

30:43

understand the markets better, have

30:45

better trading clarity, and catch better

30:47

opportunities. So, with that said,

30:49

that's the end of this class. I hope

30:50

this has been valuable. Head over to the

30:52

link in the description for the trading

30:53

diagnosis class to see what it is that

30:55

actually hold you back from winning away

30:57

from the charts. And other than that,

30:59

I'll see you in the next episode.

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