Critical, Shocking Stock & Market Catalysts THIS Week

big Catalyst coming this week you're

going to want to track all of these I'll

help you break them down but let's get

started the first one and we've got

quite a few to talk about in this video

but the first big one China folks

President Joe Biden will make the very

first in-person meeting with Xi Jinping

tomorrow that happens tomorrow that's

Monday we're hoping to get some insights

on the relationship between the United

States and Taiwan and Xi Jinping hey

after that party Congress what's

actually going on with covid zero

remember we're worried on one hand that

maybe China will invade Taiwan although

China's always talked about peaceful

reunification and we're worried that

covet zero was just going to continue to

drag down manufacturing we see iPhone

sales slowing down because of covet zero

policies uh or iPhone delivery slowing

down I should say the sales are

happening but the deliveries are taking

longer which could be delaying some

sales as well as people see long wait

times they get discouraged much like

what Tesla had to deal with with the

shutting down of the Chinese

gigafactory in Shanghai it's a disaster

so we'll see covet zero tweaks some

refinement has come to covet zero over

the last few days actually a 20-point

refinement plan announced on Friday but

covet cases are actually rising in China

which leads to the concern that what if

China tightens up again because covet

cases are rising also what about North

Korea because the North Korean well you

know leadership has been firing more

Rockets this year than in other years

prior especially under the Biden

Administration who hasn't had the best

reputation for foreign policy especially

after not only Afghanistan but now his

potential lack of uh intervention and

actually negotiating a solution for

Ukraine or with Ukraine and Russia as

well as obviously our Reliance on

foreign fossil fuels after shutting down

the Keystone Pipeline there have been a

lot of question marks around Hey Joe

Biden what are you doing with foreign

policy right North Korea is actually one

of those it's not the biggest thing on

everyone's radar right now but it's

still a big issue what's fascinating

though about this relationship between

China and the United States is China

views North Korea as a buffer zone think

about this you've got China like right

here and then under it you've got North

Korea and what's right under that the

American allied South Korea and Japan so

North Korea is kind of like a nice

little buffer for China in a weird way

kind of like Ukraine was a buffer for

Russia and NATO all right so that's

going to be an interesting conversation

so we'll see what kind of notes we get

out of this do keep in mind their growth

is coming in weaker than expected this

is no surprise because of covet zero CPI

year over year in China is 2.1 percent

weaker than expected we've got a sharp

deceleration in economic activity and

next week we'll get some retail sales

numbers this week coming up here

including earnings from Alibaba which

we'll be talking about earnings in just

a moment and we're expecting those to be

not so great in fact Alibaba is actually

removing forecasts and guides and sales

reporting numbers for certain large

events that are coming up uh like

singles day which is a big deal for

Alibaba it's somewhat surprising anyway

so we'll take a look at what happens

with the meeting between Biden and Xi

Jinping that's going to be a big deal

then Rishi before we get into earnings

which is really about the last week

earnings we got here I'll talk about

which ones are big and sort of my

expectations Rishi sunak of the United

Kingdom is expected this Thursday to

announce his attacks raise and spending

cut plan to strengthen the fiscal

balance sheet of the United Kingdom

hopefully leading to a strengthening of

the pound of the pound strengthens and

the dollar weakens for example both of

those happen at the same time or

currency's funny they can both happen at

the same time they could weaken relative

to each other obviously if the the pound

strengthens then the dollar weakens

relatively but anyway so far the

Dollar's been trending down for all

currencies and we can see a further

strengthening there in the pound based

on how strong sunax plans are based on

what he's saying I think they're going

to be pretty tough it's going to be the

complete opposite of in my opinion

was thinking which was basically hey

let's reward entrepreneurs and let's cut

taxes for the rich Let's make sure

entrepreneurs can make money because we

need to motivate and encourage our

economy so let's just encourage them to

go make more money and then our economy

will do better the market hated that the

market actually seems to be expecting

hey let's give maybe some support to

poor households but then raise taxes on

everyone else so this is going to be a

big week okay we've been waiting for

this for about a month for this actual

budget release so Thursday will be a big

deal now we're going to talk earnings

okay 91 of s p 500 companies have

already reported earnings actually came

in uh positive two percent year over

year but that was almost entirely thanks

to energy in fact if you strip out

energy out of s p 500 earnings you know

like oil and gas companies okay if you

strip those out earnings for the S P 500

the 91 of companies that have already

reported actually fell two percent oh

I'm sorry fell six percent let me get

that right so with energy they grew two

percent without energy they fell six

percent uh yikes not so great now what

is also interesting is that on a normal

earnings cycle 74 of s p 500 companies

beat so if you're ever playing options

and you're like oh are they gonna beat

or Miss

74 of the time on average you actually

get Beats versus misses now that could

already be priced into the the

variability or the volatility uh pricing

in options models so the market may

already be expecting that but in this

last earnings cycle all of the 91

percent I reported only 62 percent of

companies beat versus the average 74

something interesting to keep in mind

now what do we have for earnings uh

coming up and what other catalysts do we

have well remember you've got the big

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earnings so what do we have Monday we

have Tyson this is going to be

interesting because meat prices have

actually started falling we saw this in

the last CPI report and and we've kind

of seen this as a trend now so that

could impact Tyson we'll keep an eye on

that one that's Monday also on Monday we

have monday.com this is sort of your

team building platform it'll it'll be

really interesting to see if because

we've seen so many Tech layoffs if we're

seeing fewer users on Monday or if we're

starting to see like a substantial

decline in user growth like maybe their

user growth flat lines or potentially

goes negative if they ended up having

people who are fired you know get out

off their seats that's going to be one

to pay attention to archimoto look I

love the executive staff at arcimoto I'm

not the most optimistic about how many

different directions they're going with

products I wish they would just pick one

product and just manufacture the damn

thing instead they're really focused on

this idea of like let's make 10

different models and then let's license

that IP out and let's let other

companies build it I don't think anybody

else is going to build their product I

don't know I'm not that optimistic about

it BuzzFeed I I don't even know why I

mentioned that one I don't think that

one is really a catalyst at all Tuesday

weekend uh before uh Market opens we're

going to be getting a Walmart this is

going to be huge for consumers okay this

is a Walmart is huge and even though 91

of companies have already reported now

we're getting the the ones that are

really going to show us about the

consumer now Walmart really tells

usually a little bit more about the

middle and lower class consumer and I

really want to see here we know they're

getting hit we know they're suffering

because of inflation that's at 40 years

your highs but how badly are they

getting hit and are we actually going to

potentially see negative sales growth uh

you know quarter over quarter

sequentially that's known as that's

going to be a big one to pay attention

to so Walmart's gonna tell us a lot

about the consumer if you're an investor

in Walmart obviously you want that

number to go up you want to think that

people are going from Target and more

expensive companies down to Walmart if

you're the Federal Reserve you I hate to

say it but you want to see people

crimped on spending especially those

discretionary departments Walmart will

tell us hey like our electronic sector

is like trash which I kind of expect

like TVs video games computers I expect

that area to be complete a complete

disaster uh as far as you know food

obviously we could expect to see sales

up here but how are we doing in apparel

so far what we've been seeing in the

last earnings cycle is Target and

Walmart actually discounting apparel

more because inventories were

substantially higher targets inventories

were like ridiculously high uh I mean

Walmart had a big jump in inventory do

so Inventory management discounting is

that discounting leading to sales are

they having to Discount more and if they

have to Discount more to get stuff moved

is it possible inflation is going to

move down even more than we actually

think Krispy Kreme not too sure that

one's much of any kind of catalyst

Advanced Auto Parts I do actually think

that is one that's worth watching

because you actually have a large car

community that spends a lot of

discretionary money on auto parts at

auto stores and so I think understanding

the consumer a little bit from the

perspective of of discretionary car

spending is a good uh read into your a

lower and middle class consumer somewhat

like Walmart although you do get a

little bit of upper middle class in

there as well I don't see as much upper

class consumers uh actually working on

cars you know I think there you get more

of like the show cars and the luxury

cars and and they're just not touching

those uh so again another little

indicator there of the lower middle

class I would not be super optimistic

here about a beat mostly because look if

used car prices are going down your

feeling of wanting to invest I feel like

is going to decline in in your your car

so we'll see remember they also sell you

things like uh you know police scanners

like radar scanners and these sort of

discretionary things that you don't

really need but you know when times are

good people do spend money on it and

these tend to be high margin items for

them now uh you know I do also want to

mention that on Tuesday Tuesday before

the Bell actually I forgot this one Home

Depot this is going to be big I want to

know what Home Depot is seeing regarding

the real estate sector look the last GDP

report what did we get we got

residential investment starting to fall

now residential investment can could be

a diff a whole lot of different sectors

but Home Depot is going to tell us a lot

about that home owner ninety percent of

the customers at Home Depot are home

owners and or their contractors working

for homeowners it's not like for

commercial jobs uh so you're really

going to get a look into the real estate

and housing market with Home Depot

that's Tuesday before the bell I want to

see our people starting projects what

are people buying are they buying

finished materials are they buying new

material like for example buying studs

is is new material right like you know

studs no like two by fours wood new

materials new projects paint molding

those are finished materials if we could

see a difference between those

categories we might actually be able to

track a trend shift depending on how

Home Depot segments uh the information

they provide to us so that's going to be

a great look into the consumer remember

Home Depot was the one that told us they

are the ones that told us that when home

prices are going up people view spending

on their home as an investment when home

prices are going down which they are

people view expenses on their home as an

expense but keep in mind home prices

year over year are still positive it's

just over the last six to eight months

that they've been crashing so will the

average homeowner realize that I don't

know let's see before the battle on

Wednesday we're going to get Target

Lowe's TJ Maxx okay so obviously Lowe's

same story as Home Depot uh we won't

rehash that the discount customer how

many people were going from from Target

to let's say TJ Maxx to try to get those

deals or or those deals over at TJ Maxx

you know like that 60 off coupon code

got to get you a wedge deal man get it

in before Black Friday you know if if

you uh you know see more people move

like for example lower revenues at

Target but more revenues at TJ Maxx that

would be a tell of a downshift

potentially but if you see lower

revenues at Target and at TJ Maxx that's

when you sort of get this inward

pressure where people are like look

we're out of money we just have to

hunker down and try to get through this

to some degree that's kind of what you

want the Federal Reserve to see and feel

is that like everybody's just kind of

gotten to the point of hunkering down

and and then inflation disappears very

quickly and like we talked about in the

last video we start getting disinflation

and disinflation that stays around for a

little bit longer so that'll be

fascinating uh to watch after the Bell

this is a big one when Wednesday after

the Bell we're going to get Nvidia Cisco

Sonos Bath and Body Works this is

probably the end of sort of the big wave

here but Nvidia we want to know about

that Chinese chip they introduced a new

Chinese chip that could bypass the

legally bypass get authorization to

bypass the Biden sanctions and

restrictions for chip sales I actually

think the semiconductor sector is one

that's substantially oversold a

semiconductor sector whether it's a

video or AMD this is a very high margin

business I think there are a lot of

opportunities here remember these

companies are not manufacturers unlike

Taiwan semiconductors Taiwan

semiconductors they've got a manufacture

AMD Nvidia these are the brains that are

creating this stuff and I'm not saying

people on TMC tsmc aren't smart they are

these are like phenomenal companies I

mean heck have all three of them if you

want but in the actual chip maker

section the uh the the come up with the

chip sector these guys have gotten their

valuations pummeled but their margins

are still really really high so sure

some of that crazy growth is going away

but there could be some potential value

here and I don't believe that companies

like video or AMD or value traps unlike

some other companies like for example I

hate to say it but like an Intel and IBM

I see these as a little bit more of a

value trap I personally also think that

Facebook is a value trap but that's my

personal opinion now keep in mind look I

am a licensed financial advisor but this

is this is impersonal Financial advice

or financial perspective right uh I you

know you're not being charged for this

information on this video I I and

ultimately you have to decide what's

right for your own portfolio I happen to

just think yes as a licensed financial

advisor that there's an opportunity in

companies like these chip makers again

that's not personal advice for you uh

that's just sort of Broad and personal

hey I think there's massive value at

these companies and really I think in

the long term these these are not

companies that I expect will go to zero

although we've seen crazier things

happen Cisco you know we'll see what

happens with Cisco corporations how much

are corporations and institutions

spending on infrastructure I don't know

if it's going to be as optimistic and

Sonos that's a pretty expensive

discretionary purchase that also relates

to the residential investment sector

oh I don't know man I think that's a

place that I'd like to pull back I'm not

so happy about that sector especially

when you've got a you know Amazon Alexa

pulling back on potentially wanting to

can the entire Alexa program because it

costs them like four billion dollars a

year it's insane Thursday Alibaba this

is going to be big for the Chinese

consumer I am not optimistic about the

Chinese consumer I love the Chinese but

the Chinese are so smart we know this

they are the first to pull back on

spending they save money I've talked

about this a million times this year the

sound redundant to you but the

point is Alibaba sales not something I

would bet on now in the last week or so

we've seen a lot of movement on Chinese

stocks moving up and a lot of this in my

opinion is just driven by pure opium uh

but but I still think we've got a long

way to go before the Chinese sector

actually turns see the Chinese sector

has real fundamental problems we have

high inflation because of covid and too

much stimulus when that inflation goes

away the next decade is going to be

great as long as we can get this

inflation to just fall down go if we we

get to here just keep all the prices

where they are now we just stay at zero

this economy Booms for the next 10 years

uh China on the other hand I don't know

about that China has a greater risk of

falling into a Japan kind of trap like

the Lost decade kind of trap uh Coles

BJ's Macy's a little bit more on the

discount consumer right and we will also

after the Bell on Thursday get Palo Alto

networks interesting for cyber security

could be a catalyst for cloudflare and

crowdstrike and we'll also get William

Sonoma this is actually in addition to

Ross another lower income consumer one

but William Sonoma will finally tell us

a little bit exclusively about that

higher income consumer at home or higher

income consumers still spending this is

you know your William Sonoma customers

like a six-figure earner right your Ross

TJ Maxx Macy's Kohl's BJ's like this is

more of your your middle of the road 30

to 60 000 a year earner household and

we're going to get a lot of data on that

lower income household but again like I

said earlier in the video we know

they're getting screwed by inflation so

the big thing that we want to pay

attention to is when's that higher

income consumer finally going to roll

over I don't I have no idea what's going

to happen with Williams-Sonoma I know

the higher income consumer still has

still has stimulus money left over

whereas the lower income consumer

doesn't keep in mind we also have

California stimulus checks that are

coming out to people making up to five

hundred thousand dollars which is insane

so those could help prop up some of the

end of Q3 sales figures for some of

these companies but if we actually see

William Sonoma report bad it could be a

great thing for inflation because it

means finally the higher income consumer

is rolling over they're the last to roll

over and quite frankly if inflation

Falls without them rolling over it is

possible that the hiring consumer

continues to spend continues to invest

in things like solar and end phase and

batteries and William Sonoma stuff and

expensive stuff and those companies

could actually stay strong If the Fed

pivots pretty dang soon uh you know they

don't necessarily have to go down they

could survive now I still believe that

because of what we're seeing in the real

estate market that anything real estate

exposed is probably going to get hit by

q1 Q2 of next year but if Jerome Powell

Cuts rates half a percent by Q2 of next

year it'll get propped right back up and

you have a floor under it same thing

with the housing market so this is

something very important that we're

paying attention to with house hack

obviously as well if you're an

accredited investor make sure to check

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househack.com got questions about those

courses kevin.com folks thank you so

much for watching and we'll see you in

the next one