Market SHOCK & DEADLINE Today, Border INVASION, Gov SHUTDOWN | Bottom Line Report [E.5]

the steepling of the yield curve a

border crisis the United Auto Workers

strike and a government shutdown along

with what the heck is going on in the

bond market we have a lot to talk about

and it has big impacts on your economic

wealth let's get into it first look at

this this once I remove myself is the

inverted yield curve I want you to

remember that this zero line right here

breaking this is usually what signals a

recession with the exception of one time

when we had a soft Landing in about the

mid 90s where we didn't even really

invert that deeply but yet tiny little

bit of an inversion usually this does

accurately signal a cutting recession

especially when you have one that's this

deep basically the line going this low

and the painful parts are not actually

the going down part usually although

last year it was usually the painful

parts are what's known as the rest

deepening that's when the line starts

trending back up you'll see this really

rapid explosion here this was during the

march banking crisis and of course it's

a volatile graph like any graph but the

March banking crisis along with tax loss

harvesting right at the end of the year

led to some of the larger pain points

now we're starting to see a similar run

up that actually began right here around

July 19th which is right when the stock

market really topped out since July 19th

at best we've really been sideways on

most stocks in most cases though we've

started seeing the momentum stocks that

we're really running this summer give up

all their gains again if not some of

them are even lower than where they were

and other stocks are under heavy

pressure compared to where we have been

relative to July a lot seeing the

inverted yield curves re-steepening to

blame for this that you're actually

potentially driving billions of dollars

of selling simply algorithmically that

algorithms are saying okay when the

10-year Rises significantly and the

two-year does not rise a lot what

happens in that case well the longer end

of treasuries becomes more expensive and

the shorter end the two-year end doesn't

well that's the uninverting of the yield

curve it's the steepening that

steepening is painful and that's

probably what we're experiencing now

it's not just painful for stocks though

take a look at this this is Deutsche

Bank oh quickly I forgot to mention next

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Deutsche Bank now arguing that these are

the the worst Bond losses that we have

really seen since World War one and

quite frankly if you go all the way back

to the beginning of the 1800s you have

not seen these kinds of losses with the

exception of world war one that bonds

have been experiencing this is a really

tough time for markets and people are

pissed rightfully so now I'm dealing

with inflation and the balanced 60 40

portfolio of stocks and bonds is is a

completely topsy-turvy so it's painful

for a lot of folks but in addition to

that we wonder when will the pain and

Bank of America is reporting that we're

becoming more bearish as a market again

which is often a Buy Signal it's

contrarian Buy Signal on top of that

Bank of America's heart net suggests

that when it comes to Bank of America

private uh clients excuse me losing my

voice a little bit when it comes to Bank

of America private clients out with 3.2

trillion in assets under management

their clients are in stocks to the tune

of almost 60 percent it's actually

pretty decently allocated only about

11.9 stocks or sorry cash and 21.3 bonds

however this week represented the

biggest selling of stocks in four months

cash and t-bill inflows stayed strong

that's going to be your money markets

your cash accounts people are throwing

money into the money markets and again

it makes sense why would you touch bonds

right now the only way you touch bonds

is if you already own bonds or if you

really want to take this this like

really Cavalier approach of I'm doing

the contrarian bet the contrarian BET

right now is you go long like TLT or TMF

uh TLT is your 20-year bond fund uh TMF

is your triple leverage bond this is

basically a way of saying that's it you

think yields of time opt and you're

willing to suffer for you know a few

months because you think that'll bet off

big or pay off big rather and yield to

plummet and bond prices will Skyrocket

in such a case you would experience

capital appreciation in bonds and likely

those two ETFs those exchange trading

products the problem is when you're

earning a five and a half percent yield

on money markets why bother with

investing in the 10-year at four and a

half when you have the risk that maybe

four and a half isn't the peak maybe

it's gonna go to five percent maybe it's

gonna go to six percent maybe mortgage

rates are going back to double digits

and ten percent

but that's the way markets work it's

kind of like when Tesla was plummeting

and was down at 106 dollars everybody's

like but everyone waiting until it gets

the sixty nine dollars

no that's that's the emotion of the

stock market it's just like in Baltimore

much of an extent when markets are

euphoric it can't go down it's gonna

keep going better good to know because

you'll miss out otherwise and then of

course when things are a bearish they

can't really perish uh anyway this this

is all compounded obviously by the fact

that the Federal Reserve has sort of

walked back this idea of uh significant

rate Cuts really only dropping rates

maybe to 5.1 by the end of next year I

think something will break by then I

mean no guarantee somebody I mean we

thought things were going to break in

2023 knock on wood so far they haven't I

mean we did have a banking crisis it was

my little big question before Adventure

collapse yeah it's just a little

rounding error okay but yes short of

that we didn't have any real massive

economic issues that broke and destroyed

our economy this year with the exception

of just the lingering effects of high

inflation and so now the question is

well what's going to break next year and

if nothing breaks next year does that

mean maybe the fed's like I don't know

maybe maybe we don't even lower rates at

all next year just it's just not gonna

be good for Real Estate I really think

patience is going to be so key for real

estate and and I know I mean obviously

we're fundraising for house hack right

now uh you can invest for no fees uh

obviously we have some um uh some

processing fees uh that on our end we

have to pay with having a payment

processor and stuff like that uh but uh

you yourself you can pay uh you could

ACH invest right now you could credit

card invest right now it's really

convenient uh what we've got set up at

househype.com read the circular there

but when it comes to the real estate

market I think patience is going to be

so so important uh and I really believe

that right now watching what happens

over the next few months is critical

what we're doing just so you know how

we're preparing is we're preparing by

making sure we have CIS all of our

systems all of our ducks in a row

everything lined up we're renovating the

properties that we own which isn't too

many properties but we're renovating

what we own uh and we're using these

initial properties at house hack to

really say okay like let's just say you

had five properties now or ten

properties now it doesn't really matter

take the take what you have now now make

perfect systems so that way if things

really do hit the fan in the future we

could go okay now we got an extra 20

this month now we get an extra 20 this

month now we get extra 20 this month and

we're able to actually process all of

that business so to speak uh working

with vendors and contractors and finding

contacts and all of that and we're able

to do that and handle that when we need

to so it's a really it feels like prep

time because really higher the FED stays

for longer the more just unaffordable

real estate because then of course I see

everyone's comments and I see this

individually in markets as well yes

there's no inventory people always say

that but they're probably also not

looking at the real estate market every

single day and Nationwide going damn

there's a lot of houses hitting Market

every day that's what I see I see a lot

of houses hitting the market every

single day because the real estate

market doesn't stop you still get

properties hit at the market they just

don't sit on the market that long they

sell well until now and if you look at

data that we see most data we see just

on the Internet is two months old or at

least three weeks old three weeks to

eight weeks old that's the data you get

on the internet so you have to be really

careful what you should be doing is you

should be going into your market like

let's say you live in Toledo Ohio right

Toledo Ohio you should be going on like

Zillow or whatever for Toledo Ohio and

you just type in homes for sale whatever

Toledo Ohio Zillow 480 homes on the

market in Toledo Ohio I don't know why I

picked Toledo Ohio okay you can get a

house for 4 40 grand out there holy

smokes anyway

if that number Rises you have a daily

indicate you could have a daily

spreadsheet and watch inventory change

every single day in every single Market

and of course inventory is low but if

you start seeing it go wait a minute a

month ago it was 400. now it's 480. and

then next month it's 600. what do you

think's happening okay no little tricks

of the trade for simple ways to pay

attention to this you don't have to

don't over complicate real estate as

soon as you over complicate real estate

you end up facing problems okay so uh

what do we actually got going on though

uh in terms of this government shutdown

uh and what's going on with Ukraine well

actually both of these things combined

this was remarkable the Pentagon is now

going to exempt Ukraine Ukrainian

operations funding for Ukraine from a

potential government shutdown

now this is really convenient because

Republicans are well

we're gonna we're gonna hold up funding

because we're not convinced we want to

send more money to Ukraine and the

Democrats are like no we will not sign a

continuing resolution or a stop debt

funding measure unless there's funding

for

Ukraine and then you'll have the blood

on your hands of shutting down the

government so to speak uh and then as

this debate is going on between

Republicans and Democrats the pentagon's

like

we're just gonna

um spoiler keep funding Ukraine anyway

no matter what you do with your

government shutdown

oh and it's kind of like Republicans are

like what the hell we wanted to make a

point and Democrats are like

it's coming it's a crazy time word but

anyway uh the decision by the Pentagon

and quote ensures that American tactics

and equipment for Ukrainian forces can

continue without interruption the

exemption is in effect if uh lawmakers

fail to fund our government by September

30th which is when we would expect a

potential government shutdown this also

includes funding operation Atlantic

resolve operation Atlantic resolve

provides oh basically rotational

deployments of a combat ready forces to

the Eastern flank of the Ukrainian

borders to show our support to Nato and

it enhances deterrents on that Eastern

flank operation Atlantic resolve was

actually created after Russia invaded

Crimea in 2014. U.S military activities

including training of UK or a UK of

Ukrainian soldiers and shipments of

weapons will uh continue as well in

addition to that Joe Biden did did

announce a new Aid package this new Aid

package is an additional 325 million

dollars in military aid Joe Biden

announced this just yesterday during a

meeting with zielinski this is the

fourth package of additional funding

that we have seen for Ukraine in the

last six weeks it is separate from the

24 billion dollars Biden wants Congress

to approve Biden said there is a no

nation that will be secure if the U.S

does not help Ukraine now the package is

now expected to include air defense

capabilities cluster Munitions anti-tank

weapons and more keep in mind like there

there was this convention on cluster

Munitions assigned uh by 123 Nations

back in 2010 and the reason they did

this is because these cluster Munitions

like they had this fail rate of like two

to forty percent which basically means

if you had like 100 little cluster bombs

like two to forty of uh two to four

hundred of them sorry well out of a

hundred two to forty of them would not

detonate and then you have these Duds

somebody's got to go around and clean up

all these minefields that are being

bombed and then the leftover dud cluster

Munitions or or weapons it's gonna be a

disaster in eastern Ukraine for a long

time people are gonna pick this stuff up

and blow up it's a problem and have a

really big clearing effort that's the

bombs on Munitions consisting of a

projectile known as a parent emission

the transport several hundred baumlets

or cluster munitions

dropped by aircraft or launched from the

ground cluster bombs are designed to be

dispersed over a wide area the size of

several football pitches

as these weapons are generally

free-falling they can strike the ground

a considerable distance from the target

area if they're not used correctly or if

conditions are for example windy in

addition not all bomblets detonate on

impact they thus become de facto

anti-personnel mines banned by the 1997

Ottawa convention years after a conflict

is over they can kill dozens of people

including small children attracted by

their bright colors I'm sure BlackRock

would love to be involved

conspiratorial here but it's worth

noting that Russia Ukraine and the

United States have not actually signed

that agreement and so the United States

uh still has cluster Munitions and even

though they don't manufacture many of

them they've got plenty of them

stockpiled and now they're sending them

to Ukraine to use they're actually quite

functional for the purpose that Ukraine

is fighting right Ukraine is fighting

Russia's Dragon Teeth fortifications

which are basically like you know the

anti-tank well x's and triangles uh and

then you've got the Mine Fields and then

you've got the trenches cluster

Munitions are great for this because you

just you just blanket bomb an area and

then the mines blow up and you hit the

trenches easily uh and you can basically

get through the Dragon's Teeth Ambush

setups much easier rather than using

targeted missile strikes uh which

targeted missiles are great against

buildings cluster Munitions are great

against well what Ukraine is fighting

look I'm not like a military Intel guy

here okay just like I'm just trying to

catch you up a little bit but all of

this is related as well to this

government shutdown on the drama that's

happening right now for example listen

to this

apparently some in the GOP right now

just blockaded McCarthy yesterday for

the second time in three days leaving

McCarthy unable to bring his own

spending Bill to the floor like he can't

even pass his bill which he knows the

Democrats won't go for anyway

because you've got some hardlining him

in the GOP they're like yeah no no no no

we don't we don't even like your idea

and a lot of people don't like McCarthy

remember how hard it was for McCarthy to

get in the problem a lot of

contentiousness and a lot of people

probably gonna be pointing the finger at

Republicans for government shutdown but

you know what a lot of Republican

constituents are like you know what

Kevin

I want the government to shut down I'm

tired

that's true I think government spending

is pretty insane uh right now but uh but

it it it you know what at least you can

rest easily and knowing that Ukrainian

Pilots are still going to be trained via

Pentagon funding for F-16 fighter jets

the US Army's embra M1 Abrams at tanks

will still be expected to be delivered

and thousands of more Ukrainian troops

are expected to be trained using U.S

adalahallas want to know something else

about U.S dollar Hollis

they ever heard of the F-35 you know the

disappearing airplane okay maybe maybe

that's just a joke it actually is a joke

we did have an F-35 that it just uh

suddenly happened to go missing after

crashing anyway we don't have to think

conspiracy spirit that okay whatever

crashed in a dance forwards that's fine

ignore the conspiracy nothing to see

here but where there is something to see

is this look at what the financial times

just said this is ridiculous it involves

trillions of dollars now before we keep

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Pentagon says that the country's Fleet

of F-35 fighter jets can only fly a

little over half the time because

maintenance issues keep the aircraft on

the ground despite the growing Reliance

on f-35s by the United States but not

only that despite the fact that the

plane is only functional 55 of the time

the US military wants to buy 2 000 more

of them by the mid-2040s over the next

20 years and that is expected to cost

over 1.7 trillion dollars

1.7 trillion dollars

for aircraft that are only functional 55

of the time right now I I

like let's just say if I was gonna spend

1.7 trillion dollars I'd be expecting at

least 69 up time

okay tether

this is ridiculous tether apparently

stablecoin issue right Heather has like

an insanely profitable business model

insanely profitable they literally take

cash that's deposited and turn it into

gold by parking it into money markets

getting like a 5.3 yield with like no

freaking risk the biggest risk is that

people are like I need to dump my tether

but so they basically created nothing

and then are able to create or get cash

from people and earn massive interest on

that cash and it's like a banker's dream

their business model is amazing in that

sense right now and because of this

tether doesn't actually have to take on

risk in case you don't know tether is a

stable coin crypto okay we're talking

about crypto or crypto now

tether though listen to this has resumed

lending stable coins to support certain

crypto investors who need collateral

they promised at the end of last year

that they were going to pause this kind

of lending but they've decided you know

what we are going to support borrowers

because we're going to be a good citizen

and rather than some people having to

liquidate their crypto during volatile

crypto times why don't we just give them

a loan we've got plenty of money anyway

and it'll support the whole crypto

Community hey maybe that's a good thing

for tether but nobody will ever know

all of the Financial Insights of tether

and what's really going on behind the

scenes but this isn't a video about

tetherfud it's just to remind you that

tether is once again lending again so

make of that what you may regarding the

UAW strike the strike is expected to get

worse

today at 12 p.m Eastern 10 a.m local

time the strike is expected to expand to

more facilities of Ford estevantes and

GM I can't believe I almost just said

gelantis but anyway car makers propose a

20 pay increase UAW is now down to 36

percent UAW wants that 32-hour work week

and a restoration of some of the

benefits that were essentially postponed

after the global financial crisis

2008-2009

uh there's this also talk about again

this four day work week though some of

that is being kind of like

deprioritized by the UAW UAW really

focused on getting this pay increase

apparently things are reasonably

productive with Ford things are getting

a little better with solantis the one

that really isn't going anywhere

apparently is GM's

and uh well yeah that one might be

getting a few extra strikes today so

we'll see what happens with the UAW

along and short of it obviously we want

a resolution to be found here it's not

great for Supply Chains It's not great

for GDP or recessionary concerns it's

not great for the workers who are doing

their best just to survive and feed

their families who haven't had pay

raises in years uh it's not great for

the workers who are like all right like

just give us this pay raise we can get

back to work it's not great for the

companies who are trying to struggle

transitioning to manufacturing EVS but

they don't know how to make money in EVS

because they're Legacy autos and they've

got way too much of a burden on a legacy

business that has run into profit

challenges thanks also to inflation to

really profitably manufacture electric

vehicles and they don't have the scale

to do it yet it's a completely disaster

but it is worth noting that today things

are expected too

get worse

but you could always count on me

reminding you that next Friday the 29th

of September we will have a massive

expiration on the first pre-sale round

for the new Bruce Pro courses remember

those are only 79 bucks right now there

are many different numbers Pro courses

they're on pre-sale they're going to

start trickling out soon but we're

ending the first pre-sale and so we'll

have a price increase on those new verse

Pro courses within the next week so

buckle up for that check it out by going

to meet kevin.com and learn more

regarding

now a migrant crisis what is happening

thousands of migrants continued to cross

the Rio Grande today from Mexico the

deployment of military personnel is only

for 90 days to help fill gaps more than

3 000 migrants Crossing yesterday in

Eagle Pass up from 2700 Tuesday and a

new influx starting to cross there early

this morning the mayor of Eagle Pass has

declared an emergency and last night the

city council there voted to allow DPS to

start making trespass arrest at a park

where migrants have been Gathering

rescinding a previous action that had

kicked DPS out of the park trying to

prevent and trying to use every tool

that we have within our power as a state

to try to prevent some of these unlawful

Crossings and also focus on criminal

activity that's taking place along the

border and also outside around other

surrounding areas and Border communities

an example of that criminal activity

take a look was posted today on social

media by Lieutenant Olivares the picture

is of 49 migrants who were found to stay

locked up in the back of a poorly

ventilated truck trailer near Laredo Now

new DPS truck inspections they're now

being done at Key border crossings and

that razor wire cut by border patrol

well that was replaced today at least

two drownings were reported this week in

the Rio Grande a three-year-old boy

yesterday and the body of a man was

pulled from the river this morning okay

so we've got a migrant crisis if you

haven't seen what's going on uh in in uh

Eagle Texas it's a disaster okay

basically you've got thousands of

migrants flooding through the Border uh

illegally okay why is this happening

well that's because the Biden

Administration granted a temporary

protected status to about an additional

472

000 Venezuelans already in the United

States this TPS program is basically

designed to say look you've got massive

problems in your country why don't we

give you a temporary authorization to

work in our country and at least you can

survive this specifically relates to

Venezuela and and even though the

deadline to get into the country was

July 31st people are still flooding

through why because guess what people

are just going to flood in and they're

gonna be like I've been here since July

30th

of course because then you can get a

work permit and you can escape the hell

that is going on down south what the

hell is going on down south is I see I

know what the sentiment is and I I don't

blame the sentiment the American

sentiment is our border is not a border

we don't have a country without a border

we should seal the border and we should

call Americans to protest because we are

facing an invasion and people I see it

they say go make your own country better

don't come over here and take our jobs

these are very real sentiments and

everybody's going to have their own

opinion on this others on the other side

are going to say you realize what's

happening in Venezuela inflation is not

five percent it is not eight percent it

is not ten percent it's not 50 it is not

a hundred percent prices aren't going up

by double every single year they are

going up by

400

their economy is collapsing there's food

instability there's emergency service

instability the Maduro government is is

completely failing their monetary system

is collapsing the international criminal

court wants to bring humanitarian cases

against Venezuelan for the massive

humanitarian emergency over there lack

of even basic access to water or

nutrition

on top of that you've got armed groups

that basically just go around portraying

and killing people it's hell now again

is that our problem to solve and should

we just have open borders is it

completely our problem to solve should

we go fail out Venezuela like we bail

out other things as the World Police and

should we therefore have a completely

open border no of course not nobody

would expect that

but this is a little bit of why you've

got a migrant crisis now going on again

at Eagle gate Texas there is uh this uh

it's not just Venezuela though there are

others covered by TPS as well El

Salvador has its TPS running through

March 9th of 2025 Haiti through August

3rd 2024 Honduras through July 5th 2025

Nepal June 24 2025 Nicaragua oh too

early Kevin July 5th 2025 Sudan April

19th 2025. so a lot of different

countries with with humanitarian crises

have these TPS again that you're

supposed to apply from abroad and

legally enter the country with a work

permit when you seek and receive Asylum

however this is leading people to

illegally try to get into the country

that say they were here earlier uh than

they actually were to additionally

qualify for some of these uh of these

temporary work permit authorizations uh

you know obviously there are

requirements as well that you are not a

criminal when you come over here and

background checks get done but the court

systems and everything are so bogged uh

and and uh overwhelmed that uh how how

do we actually reasonably expect all of

these uh background checks for being

conducted well we don't hence why it

feels like we have no border but I'll

tell you one thing at least the Press

Secretary of the United States is

willing to talk to Americans about it

he puts forth a wait no no no no no no

no no you can't I'm answering okay we're

gonna move no no no no no no no no no

we're moving on great

answer Peter I tried to answer the

question you stopped me let's go okay

what do you call it

here at the White House

didn't try to answer the questions

talking about GOP trying to shut the

government down

yikes yikes

um politics so delicious you want some

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that's what happens when you get

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um but yeah it was sponsored by Weeble

let's take a quick check of the uh

pre-market this video is brought to you

by Weeble uh yet another fantastic new

promotion from Weeble and uh I really do

like Weeble I use Weeble uh literally on

a daily basis uh to understand what's

going on quickly fantastic obviously it

is a paid promotion in case that that

wasn't already obvious but uh taking a

quick look at the pre-market we have uh

you've got let's see xpings up six

percent 16 bucks right now Neo's at

eight bucks man I remember that thing

was at twenty dollars in January of

2022. don't ask me why I remember that

perfectly canoes down at 45 cents

finally closed by short on that I had a

little tiny teeny little tiny short on

that one that worked out uh I usually

don't short that much otherwise it

doesn't seem like we got too terribly

much movement uh in the pre-market here

you've got uh stocks basically flat

NASDAQ up about 45 bips Tesla up about

74. jump on into those 10-year treasury

yields what are we looking at you're

looking at basically flat oil at the

same time possibly up again about one

percent as a Russia export ban is uh is

is fueling some more fears again about

uh yet again more uh more supply chain

constraints uh for uh for oil on top of

that I'd like to cover Daily Wealth

again people seem to really enjoy the

Daily Wealth email still you can sign up

for those linked down below uh regarding

the Daily Wealth email uh the the lesson

today is business

people think business is about money

people always think this they're like

Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin

business about making dalahalas that's

it

wrong

business is people that's it if you can

solve people's problems and provide

value to people you will make more you

will succeed more you will grow more you

will become great and successful what

you do with that success is up to you

for some people it's uh you know we

don't have to go into what it is they're

not good things other people it

motivates more success and greatness

ultimately though you've got to start

with at least having the option of

success and when you remember that

business is about people you'd start

succeeding

and that does it for today's bottom line

report thank you so much for watching

we'll see you next week why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

looked up to you Kevin financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your take