The Fed JUST Realized they were DUPED | Massive Cuts Coming

oh it finally happened and the Federal

Reserve has realized that they're being

played by the government wait what isn't

the fed the government no the fed's

actually supposed to be independent of

the government they just operate on the

authorization of the government they're

still all suits either way how did the

FED just realize that oh man we're

getting played and why is that a big

deal well remember the Federal Reserve

tells us there are three things that we

need to see fall for overall inflation

to go down we need Goods inflation to

come down we got that that's already

happening we need housing inflation to

go down that's already happening not in

the owner's equivalent rent side which

is the lagging indicator but on the

leading side the fed's so far willing to

accept that but that darn wage inflation

seems to be propped up propped up by

something uh maybe politically motivated

who knows it certainly looks a lot

better to say jobs were growing under my

Administration than to actually tell the

truth but

it is possible that yeah maybe stemi

checks from some states specifically

California sending stimulus inflation

relief checks to people making up to

five hundred thousand dollars could have

propped up some jobs we also know that

the Bureau of Labor Statistics has given

us a really misleading read on jobs if

you remember about 13 days ago on

December 2nd I made a video when I

talked about how isn't it odd that

between March and November the household

survey of employment which doesn't

double count employees only grew by 12

000 jobs but the establishment survey

grew by 2.5 million jobs how could that

be maybe because one of the surveys is

actually reporting the potential payroll

count that companies have where the

household survey counts people employed

so if one person has two jobs they get

double counted right and so so that has

led to this sort of annual graph with a

massive Divergence this is a Zero Hedge

chart here giving us a nice little

graphic and they show this Divergence

between the surveys it's almost like

something broke in March also

conveniently somewhat right before the

election but either way no tinfoil had

necessary there's obviously a problem

here something's changed for some reason

the surveys are no longer aligning the

way they used to possibly because

starting in that time people started

getting multiple jobs just to pay the

bills because inflation was running so

hot right and and people are starting to

have a harder time getting a new job

okay all right to some degree maybe that

makes sense but so far the Federal

Reserve has not acknowledged this

problem the Federal Reserve has instead

said yeah wage growth is still going up

employment is still tight and we just

have to keep being aggressive and keep

hiking until unfortunately that goes

down there's is gonna be joblessness you

know probably over a million and a half

people are going to lose their jobs and

we wish there was a less painful way but

this is what we have to do that's what

Jerome Powell told us in the meeting

yesterday well what did we actually just

get from the Philadelphia Federal

Reserve which Jerome Powell may not have

actually seen yet before his meeting but

just came out

take a look at this

early Benchmark revisions of state

payroll employment by the research

Department of the Federal Reserve Bank

of Philadelphia and what does this Bank

tell us well they tell us the following

estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of

Philadelphia

indicate that employment changes from

March through June keep this in mind

that's March through June we're in

December okay so they're just now

realizing that wait a second why is

there such a Divergence in March through

June is just this section highlighted

here right this is a March through June

chart wanted to make that clear to you

because remember when I said March

through November we were at like a 2.7

million job Gap okay just in the March

through June section we're sitting at a

1.5 million job differential

approximately okay the point is not

exactly that the numbers are perfect

it's just to show that there's a huge

gap between the two and and the Philly

fed is going hey we just did our

analysis of the March through June

numbers and they are significantly

different than the estimates in 33

States and in DC compared with estimates

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

current employment statistics report in

fact our early reports estimate

that there are higher changes in four

states but lower changes in 29 states

where essentially our estimate our

estimates now incorporate more

comprehensive accurate job estimates

released by the Bureau of Labor

Statistics quarterly report along with

their own data versus their monthly

payroll report so in other words the

Philly fed is saying look the month over

month data we're not really trusting

these BLS reports right now let's look

at the quarterly data and include some

of our own data in it together so we can

interpret this right this is their

methodology I won't believe what they

found the difference was so in that

initial estimate chart we saw that there

was this weird difference of potentially

as much as 1.5 million but it certainly

was a big difference it certainly seemed

like the household survey was saying

very few jobs if any jobs were actually

created so ignore the difference for a

moment we just know it's huge and we

actually think that basically nearly no

jobs have been created that's because

you kind of go from March over to June

and you're roughly at the same level so

no jobs have been created based on the

household survey but the payroll survey

says over a million jobs were created

well what did the Philadelphia fed just

search and find out per their

methodology well the following they say

that in aggregate in total we believe

only ten thousand five hundred net new

jobs were added During the period of

March through June rather than the 1.1

million jobs estimated by the sum of the

states in other words the Philadelphia

fed is saying we think there was Zero

jobs growth basically that's what they

write here zero with ten thousands

pretty dang close to zero in in the case

of this jobs report relative to a

million to a million and a half right so

they write here based on our research

we're actually sitting at about a zero

percent jobs growth solely for March

through June and by the way because it

takes us so long to figure this crap out

it's gonna be another three months

before we can let you know what the

actual job gains were between June and

September so in other words we're

probably going to be in February towards

the end of February before we actually

have real data for June through

September for the jobs report and this

June through December jobs information

which seems terribly wrong is what the

FED is using to justify continuing to

hike hike hike hike hike in other words

we need to ask ourselves when is the Fed

actually going to wake up and realize

that they are hiking rates based on this

expectation that the establishment

survey is growing between March and

November 2.7 million jobs when we only

look at the household survey we're

actually growing 12 000 jobs which is

basically for this purposes here when

we're looking at 12 000 versus 2.7

basically zero

when is the Fed actually going to wake

up and realize this and that's actually

very interesting because as soon as the

FED realizes uh oh we should probably be

using the household report what do we

have well what were the three things I

mentioned Goods inflation check going

down housing service inflation makes up

about 45 percent of pce going down we

see that with new lease signings

plummeting Lennar writing down their

backlog by over 23 24

seeing potentially over nine and a half

percent sequential quarter over quarter

real estate price declines expecting no

appreciation in 2023 huge numbers right

what's the third thing

just regular service jobs make up the

other about 55 and if we're actually

creating way fewer jobs then wage growth

should also be plummeting which actually

means we should be seeing not one down

arrow for inflation not two down arrows

for inflation but three down arrows for

inflation the fed's gotta wake up and

actually realize wait a minute not only

do we need to stop the most aggressive

interest rate hiking in 40 years and not

only do we need to conduct that pause

but we're probably not going to be able

to pause for more than a meeting or two

without risking the US economy dropping

into a deep dark dirty depression so

we're gonna actually have to U-turn fast

because the data the FED is using once

again is looking in the rearview mirror

or is just straight up wrong whether

it's wrong for political reasons or

speed reasons or incompetence who knows

but this is the same thing that happened

in reverse when inflation was starting

to rise and the FED called it initially

transitory the FED needed to act sooner

I think everybody can say that in

hindsight now the FED needed to act

sooner to get inflation down they waited

way too long they were still printing

money this is like the most offensive

part to me okay I I get it like there

was a belief that inflation was going to

be transitory for a while and I think in

2030 when we look back we'll look back

at 2021 to three maybe three and a half

right as a period of transitory

inflation right but saying that used to

be an excuse for the FED to not do

anything and instead they were still

printing money and they were still

printing money in March of 2022 when

inflation was over seven percent how

could you imagine that today still

printing money that'd be like sending

stimulus checks like California very

stupid but that was what they were doing

so they stopped way too late so we're

dealing with this garbage now they're

overdoing it in the other direction

they're going too far

and they're causing too much pain for

too long and the more they do this the

more they'll actually have to reduce

rates and potentially turn the money

printer right back on and at some point

they find an equilibrium but right now I

can tell you it certainly feels like

based on the data we're seeing the FED

is over doing it and that could set the

stage for substantial rate Cuts in 2023

and we believe just like the bond market

believes that the FED is bluffing when

they say we're not even thinking about

rate Cuts in 2023 now that could be true

they could be saying yeah let's not talk

about rain Cuts just yet we don't want

any leaks around here let's keep markets

down a little bit longer a little bit

more time to buy the dip huh

rate cuts are coming prepare