History Says Stocks will do THIS Next [BUCKLE UP]

so the NASDAQ 100 is set to enter the

best opening six months to a year

ever and a lot of folks are now

wondering what does this mean going

forward for the rest of the year and

this is where the Wall Street Journal

and Bloomberg have two separate pieces

talking exactly about what our

expectations might be going forward for

the next well six months and let me just

say this if you're a bear

don't hold your breath you actually

might really want to take a look at

these and uh question your choices

although who knows anything can happen

these are just two articles uh in the

wind and we'll see what kind of evidence

they have to judge their credibility all

right the first one

where the stock market is headed after a

wild first half and they've got five

charts so let's see what we got here

optimism a that the U.S Central Bank the

FED is approaching the end of its

tightening has helped transform the

technology heavy gauge the NASDAQ from

the

2022s market underachiever to the early

Champion with a surge of 36 percent the

Resurgence has defied Skeptics coming in

the face of bank failures recession

fears and the highest borrowing costs

since 2007 but investors stuck with

stocks well oral coming back to stocks

in the sign of all these problems all

right whatever so what do we got so this

is uh here's the uh index here the

NASDAQ 100 NASDAQ 100 has only existed

for a little over 30 years this is It's

a best first half ever uh they we've

only been close about three other times

and all of those times were in the first

half for the 1990s

you have this argument now that the

Bulls are back in control but this is

also

something to be taken with a slight

grain of salt because back in 2000 to

2003 we had the s p rally 20 off of its

lows twice only to create new lower lows

the next chart that uh the Bloomberg

folks want to show us is that the S P

500 has eclipsed Wall Street strategists

year-end projections that is also as

some would say a red flag as we often

get a mean reversion consider in covid

right here we have this massive mean

reversion uh that really took the shape

of a v-shaped recovery you could see the

red line is really what analyst

expectations are so Market expectations

are for an end of the year price Target

those are sitting somewhere around 4 100

on the S P 500 right now you're already

at about 4 400 so you've got some

downside risk over here

uh then you've also got the largest

laggers so far this year consumer

discretionaries

I uh uh sorry uh last last year's

biggest laggards yeah it was looking at

them like wait a minute I'm reading this

backwards my fault

last year's biggest failures are this

year's leaders it's obviously led by

Tech communication Services consumer

discretionaries these were the ones that

failed last year they're doing well this

year uh I actually expected Consumer

Staples to do worse than this they're

only at negative one percent so they're

basically flat what's actually gotten

hit a lot harder so far this year has

been energy now I personally think that

the mispositioning that we saw for

technology in the first six months of

this year is the same kind of

mispositioning that you're seeing

created in the Solar sector right now

now keep in mind that's just a part of

the energy sector but I really believe

that the energy sector specifically

solar

has been completely forgotten it used to

be a hot sexy trade everybody's like ah

I gotta invest in solar

I need my solar ETFs and I gotta get my

exposure to panels and panel

manufacturers and uh you know even like

array which manufactures the mounts for

panels or inverter companies solar Edge

and face whatever even Generac got in

the The Craze with with batteries

that bubble popped hard but I think it's

overextended to the point where there

probably will be some mean reversion

just like what we saw in Tech at the

beginning of this year it'll come for

solar I'm pretty well convinced

especially since we were talking about

this in the course member live stream on

Friday we believe

based on some just initial research that

we're doing solar will probably exceed

earnings expectations this year and

still grow in the neighborhood of 30 and

40 percent which is pretty remarkable we

were talking about some of that research

in the course member live on Friday

remember you could get lifetime access

to that link down below use click that

first link there go to meet kevin.com

make sure to join before Friday as we've

got a large and massive uh price

increase a coupon expiration happening

on Friday as we release more lectures

this weekend for all of the courses uh

stocks that Psych the zero to

millionaire real estate and more for the

productivity and AI course which is very

exciting anyway back to this

so what does this mean going forward

well a strong first half historically

bodes well for investors says Bloomberg

the S P 500 returns or here are the S P

500 returns when The Benchmark climbs at

least 10 percent through June so think

about that when you go from jn1 to June

and the S P 500 goes up at least 10

percent

what tends to happen on average well

what you tend to get is

well spoiler alert it's an extra 10

there they broke this out part by other

years over here and the average is an

extra 10 I don't know why they didn't

write that average on this version of

this but it's a good thing usually it

votes to oh uh yeah it leads to another

10 in the second half which is

remarkable knock on wood but on average

if the first half is really good

the next six months tend to be very good

according to Bloomberg now this is

mind-blowing but you know how everybody

was complaining about the yeah liquidity

crisis like oh liquidity isn't going to

be here and socks are going to crash and

nobody believed me that repos were just

gonna fall to help refill the TGA the

treasury general account that's exactly

what happened well in addition to

talking about uh two Bowl pieces uh that

we're going to talk about in in this

segment

look at this piece out now

stocks have upside potential while

excess liquidity is now Rising

yes yes I'll hide myself here for a

moment now all of a sudden the

mainstream narrative has flip-flopped

it's gone from oh my God this should be

a lack of liquidity too oh liquidity is

rising this is going to be great for

stocks in the second half

make up your minds mainstream uh but

then there there's also another

indicator which we used about three to

four months ago last it was really quite

interesting uh it's this indicator that

pretty rarely fires we last covered uh

it's this indicator called the copoc

indicator we last cover this about three

to four months ago and it fired off a

signal that maybe now is turning into

buy time and that indicator is right

here again and it is reiterating through

an adapted version yet another Buy

Signal what is the Wall Street Journal

have to say about this because they also

have a piece take a look at the next

title of this one this one's kind of

exciting too

this bull market is just getting started

Traders bet everyone wants a piece of

the new bull market Traders are piling

into bullish options bets that would

profit if the recent stock rally

continues and so this is where I would

also just like to throw in a little bit

of a uh two-sided heads up

one heads up is that we're probably in a

position where a pullback would be

healthy some form of modest pullback

would be very healthy and expected at

this point that's a big deal so think

about that because if you have a

pullback which usually you do the S P

500 usually sells off by three to five

percent somewhere around every two to

three months and I'm not just making

that up in fact Deutsche Bank had a

piece literally saying that here is that

piece I like to show you my sources uh

right here modest sell-off

now arguably overdue the S P 500 sells

off by three to five percent on average

every two to three months now in over

three months since the last meeting full

sell-off in March the duration rally is

in the 85th percentile and a sell-off is

now arguably overdue

okay

so what does that mean well what that

means is if you're betting on options

right now one thing to keep in mind is

especially if you have near-term dated

options

you're probably going to paper hand them

in a near-term sell-off so there's a

high risk high risk of paper handing if

you hold short-term options uh going

into a potential near-term pullback

okay keep that in mind now another thing

for options is volatility right now

epically low now that's great now you

already know this if you've taken the

stocks and site course

but what do you want to do with

volatility when it comes to options

surprise surprise it's the same thing uh

okay it's Buy Low

sell High

in other words you generally do want to

buy options when volatility is very low

every time you buy options you should be

looking at stocks these are some of the

new lectures that we're going to have

coming out a new additional lectures

since we already cover a lot of this but

we'll have more lectures on this coming

out this weekend

but one of the reasons you want to buy

with low volatility is because your

options premiums on call options are a

lot lower or even put options they're a

lot lower than when volatility is high

it's because the black shoals model for

pricing options it's just the way it is

volatility is one of the factors of

pricing and you generally want to sell

when volatility is high so what you want

to do is make sure you are evaluating

what the volatility levels are of stocks

that you're considering investing in or

not investing in right now and so you

should be looking every time you think

about doing options at a particular

stock and say okay what's my volatility

band over the last 30 days how does that

compare to the last year and am I buying

it a relative high or a relative low and

that'll help you understand whether you

should buy or sell the point of that is

if we do have some sort of near-term

pullback and there is potentially any

kind of short-term volatility increase

there could be some potential benefits

and risk depending on what option which

options you align with I guess the

warning here is be prepared for some

form of shorter term pullback before we

get more rallying now in my opinion that

actually tends to leave people trading a

lot more than they buy and hold that is

when you expose yourself to options

which is what the Wall Street Journal is

talking about here is that people are

making many more bets on calls put call

the put call ratio which is the level of

puts two calls puts on top is now at a

13-month low 13-month low implies people

are finally really going back to

shopping calls

shorting the market less via puts and as

we see here Traders are piling into

bullish options bets specially driven by

Ai and Tech you should be careful if you

are one of those Traders making those

bets because you're more likely to trade

problem with trading is that you're not

going to huddle so you're exposing

yourself to those taxes and if you get

flushed out and then you get the real

rally you might end up missing the vote

that's some of the frustrating that's

probably the most frustrating part about

options now you could play that you can

play you know certain strategies for

options so if you really know what

you're doing you can play it just well

just obviously be aware of some of these

risks

uh this uh this particular Wall Street

Journal article is is a little bit more

surface level when it comes to options

but take a look at this chip stocks

average daily call options volume we're

at the highest level that we've seen

since basically the beginning of uh the

pandemic and we even beat the call

option frenzy of 2021 in chip stocks

which is a pretty pretty remarkable that

we've beat that for really the last two

months in a row here and then if you

look at this particular chart here call

options volume tied to the S P 500 I

mean even these in 2023 starting

actually in about November of 2022 which

was a perfect time to do it you've seen

a call option bets really Skyrocket so

pretty impressive uh but also a a risk

factor nearer term I think that's some

of the uh the beauty about owning maybe

in the money options

or longer term or um

just the shares is is you don't have to

worry so much about those individual

fluctuations mostly because I you know I

think some folks are under the

impression of oh you buy an option like

45 days out which is usually a pretty

profitable time to buy options and your

goal is to try to make a lot of your

money within the first 21 days usually

if you're buying but anyway you

you know if you go through a week of red

or two weeks of red and you're now two

weeks into your uh uh 45 day options you

know you're at 30 you've got another

nine days for your strategy to play out

after weekends it's like oh start

getting a little nervous

so in other words be careful now the

good news is longer term these pieces

are pretty bullish and we are seeing

inflows that are pretty strong into the

market I mean go back to Deutsche Bank

for a moment and consider this right now

you have a discretionary investor

positioning uh slightly down especially

as we've seen some money taken out of uh

exchange traded funds in Tech over this

last week following 13 weeks of inflows

what do we have we're actually only

about a quarter of a a quarter one

standard deviation above the average for

positioning right now so so we've seen

this shift recently sort of like a

z-score measure ignore all that crap

point is we we

starting to Trend back to being more

bullish on the market going towards

overweight most investment advisors are

actually still underweight now that's a

separation right this right here talks

about Investors themselves retail and

then institutional investors and your

fund managers stole about 32 percent

underweight the market which is really

incredible

so something else to keep in mind now uh

as far as markets overall in Deutsche

bank's opinion they think that uh most

of the discretionary positioning right

now so retail investors choosing where

to be with their stocks most of it is

geared towards the reality of a soft

Landing so if we don't get a soft

Landing this is going to hurt but I

think a lot of us are quite well aware

of that it also seems like we'll have

some form of a muted reaction from this

Mutiny in Russia and bigger catalysts

will really be how long is higher for

longer although quite frankly even that

I'm not sure if that's the real Catalyst

markets care about right now and it

seems more like markets care about

what's going to end up happening with

earnings will earnings beat or will

earnings Miss I mean the terminal fed

funds rate right now is projected to sit

at uh let's see here let's grab it here

and then let's look at the five-year

break even as well

so terminal fed funds rate right now

still sitting at 5.29 that's only

slightly pricing in one more rate hike

that's really not a big deal uh you also

have uh let's see here you've also got

the five-year break even

five year Break Even very well anchored

down to 2.16 that's actually pretty good

uh it'd be nice if it were falling

really you might have to end up getting

another raid hike from the FED to get

this to push down uh markets are now

seeing the terminal rate as of today

terminal rate uh being priced in for

November

and then your first Cuts pricing in for

March

with uh probably a full percentage

points of cuts priced in for November of

2024. of course that pricing metric

could change and we'll see how earnings

hold up between now and then but so far

there don't seem to be horrible red

flags from the Mutiny don't seem to be

horrible red flags from oil or energy no

horrible red flags from Commodities no

horrible red flags on inflation we do

have an inflation Catalyst this week pce

coming out on Friday we'll talk more

about that later

but uh beyond that this is uh I'm very

curious to see how the week starts off

here came off a little bit of a rough

four day week last year or last week

and uh fingers crossed we have a little

bit of a stronger one here but again

any kind of near-term pullback totally

expected with the rally that we've seen

so far so uh don't get nervous I I

personally am uh I'm all in yeah I'm uh

I know that makes me biased but I'm

looking at the bear arguments every

single day and

nothing scares me and you know just like

in January of 2022 when I put all the

pieces of the bear puzzle together

everybody knew the entire world knew

within 24 hours like oh my God this is a

poop show uh and um and uh I will always

be the first to let you know when I

change my mind as much as they're going

to be some people who hate me for

changing my mind I'll always change my

mind uh after all

I am wearing a suit and uh sitting with

that pants on with a Hello Kitty coffee

mug so uh then again consider the source

I suppose now I want you to know this

when it comes to AI time is what's going

to make you money and if you can prove

that value to an employer you'll always

be able to be employed so this is

another way of making sure that you

don't get replaced but

foreign