i give up

hey everyone we kevin here i figured it

out this is exactly what happens every

time after we buy the dip in this stupid

dumb convictionless market here we go

all right folks well after that shell

shock we've got a lot to talk about and

we've got to go deep on some very

important things first we're going to

talk about of a fed minutes warning that

actually came from jp morgan i thought

this was very interesting we're going to

talk about this we're going to talk

about an evacuation happening in russia

we're going to talk about which stocks

are holding up and are they potentially

a value trap we're going to talk about

some critical levels that you've got to

write down for ta we also have to talk

about inflation and some special things

that folks are trying to say oh

inflational peak in april because it was

so high last year but wait a minute is

there a little bit more under the hood

that we got to talk about regarding that

talk about a little bit of a btc heads

up a portfolio update small portfolio

update for me and uh we'll talk about

some other stocks hitting low so we got

a lot to cover here let's get right into

it this video is brought to you by

masterworks by the link in the

description down below and of course if

you think we are potentially heading

into rough times and you want to prepare

yourself to make sure you're aware of

potentially when the best buy back into

stocks or how to get the best deal in

real estate especially if the market

starts rotating down in real estate

check out the programs on building your

wealth down below you want to learn

those before we potentially have rough

times ahead in the markets so check that

out via the link in the description

below okay let's get into this

so look we've known this since uh

december january at this point and i've

warned about this coming for earnings

season that bad news is bad news and

good news is also bad news and that's

because some of the guidance that we're

getting just isn't as peachy as we would

hope and we're facing these potential

fears that if growth slows at the same

time as we have high inflation and the

fed has to choose they might end up

choosing to fight inflation pushing us

into a forced recession which would not

be good that's obviously not what we're

looking for others are now trying to

create stagflation etfs so that way you

can invest your money instead of into

like an innovation etf like kathy wood

but into a stagflation etf that'll

invest your money into a mix of gold

real estate and uh and cash which is

kind of surprising

especially since mortgage rates are

skyrocketing and uh some folks are

starting to wonder is it possible that

we could start seeing some slow down in

real estate pricing but first let's talk

about jp morgan and their warning about

the minutes so kelsey barrow was on

bloomberg this morning and she mentioned

that the fed minutes in january were

missing something that were talked about

in december they did not include as many

references to transitory gradual

steadily and measured as we have

previously had in other meetings now in

december we saw the removal of things

like transitory and some of these others

but one thing that was present in the

december meeting was a reference to how

in the past they had reduced rates in a

gradual and predictable manner that they

had offloaded the balance sheet in a

gradual and predictable manner this was

missing from the january minutes

and this is really because we are

starting to see the federal reserve turn

a little bit even the more dovish

members are turning a little bit

realizing we might have to get a little

bit more aggressive now we're going to

talk more about doves versus hawks but

kelsey at jpm mentioned that

the big thing the fed should do right

now is if the market starts pricing in

that 50 basis point hike in march the

fed should absolutely take it the fed

has to regain that credibility and show

they can actually fight inflation and

we're starting to see a little bit of

this shift amongst the doves and the

hawks remember the doves at the fed are

folks who generally want to go slowly

and measured and just want to wait for

the data to improve and the hawks are

those of the fed who are like no we got

to deal with this we potentially have to

vulcar the economy which is a reference

to paul volcker in the 80s raising rates

to like 18 percent to stamp out

inflation forcing an ugly recession

now what we heard obviously from bollard

over the this last week here is that he

wants rates to be one percent uh by the

summer by july first but he's a hawk but

over the last 24 to 36 hours we also

heard from some of the more dovish folks

like loretta mester and she says that

rates should rise faster than after the

great recession and says the fed will

have to move more aggressively unless

there's a material change in the economy

aka all of a sudden inflation finally

rotating down barkin who's also a dove

previously said he has to be convinced

for a 50 basis point hike but recently

has started saying that uh-oh we are

actually starting to see inflation

broaden much beyond just autos and

pandemic-related industries suggesting

that maybe barking could actually get

convinced and mary daley while she's

been regularly telling us hey we don't

want to move too abruptly to potentially

destabilize the economy she is also

keeping her eyes on those two dates

coming up in march march 4th jobs report

and march 10th cpi report to see if the

fed's going to have to act substantially

more aggressively than they had been not

so great especially when you start

seeing the doves soften you're probably

going to get more of a unanimous

aggression to deal with inflation

it's probably too soon to tell if the

fed's actually going to have any kind of

split vote like the supreme court uh you

know how they could split votes and then

you see this dissension and then things

become a little bit more unclear

now the federal reserve did also

announce that they're going to ban

officials from trading stocks bonds and

crypto which some folks on social media

are reacting to with darn i wish they

kept trading stocks because maybe they'd

keep our stocks up then

anyway in seriousness let's talk about

russia briefly here there are currently

disputes in europe about how to

potentially sanction russia for example

italy doesn't want energy sanctioned too

much because it will contribute too much

to rampant inflation that even if there

is an invasion in ukraine italy's like

okay but let's just maybe not sanction

like oil gas and other issues with

russia

because we kind of need a cheaper flow

of energy right now there's also

discussion that or the latest estimates

rather show that there might be as many

as 190 000 troops near the border of

ukraine which is a substantial increase

from last week's estimate of 130 000

troops we're also seeing new images

being taken of new helicopters being

delivered uh to sites around ukrainian

borders we also know that there are

joint military exercises expected and

scheduled for february 20th so it's

possible that the new artillery being

moved into place and gunships helicopter

gunships are being in a place there for

these exercises but we're also seeing

new military field hospitals prop up

which folks are saying well okay but

maybe those hospitals are for training

accidents and it's like all right all

right maybe but some pretty big

hospitals are popping up at the same

time the us again is warning of imminent

russian invasions with tanks cyber

attacks and jets and you have

separatists in the donetsk uh probably

not saying that right i'm trying to do

my best donna

region evacuating as many as seven

hundred 000 individuals and these are

pro-russian individuals who live in

eastern ukraine who are like it's done

the gtfo we've also had rejections for

bilateral and trilateral talks in this

particular region between leaders and uh

and country leaders so regional leaders

and country leaders it's a problem when

talks start breaking down and people

start gtf owing

not so good now we're starting to see a

little bit of interesting activity in

bonds and that we're actually seeing

bond deals start falling now we've

talked about this in prior days here but

one thing that happened here was we

actually just attracted 7.4 billion

dollars of foreign money into our

treasury bonds this is one of the

largest inflows that we've seen over the

last decade and oftentimes this this

could be a sign of a fear and when you

get these sort of inflows especially uh

into the 10-year treasury you will see

yields come down that's because as more

people buy these bonds the price of the

bonds goes up driving that yield down so

even though the stock market is falling

and folks like to say oh well when

yields go up you know tech goes down

tech's still going down today despite

the fact that yields are going down so

that relationship doesn't work too well

especially because we have to consider

that for and flight to safety aspect

now obviously inflation fears are

continuing and there are a lot of folks

that are referencing this idea that oh

well inflation was so high the cpi

reading year over year was so high in

april

of 2021 then maybe maybe what that means

is we'll have a lower read

this april that that maybe that's when

we're going to see the p so

unfortunately you have to go under the

hood a little bit more here to to

understand this but first we got to talk

about masterworks and then i'll show you

the trick here in 2019 jeff bezos spot

hurting the word radio number two by ed

russia for 52 million dollars that's

right 52 million dollars and you might

think that's a lot for one painting but

what if i told you this price made total

sense the problem is we're not all like

jeff bezos but i did find this

incredible investing app that allows you

to invest in art it allows you to invest

like jeff without needing billionaire

status and it's masterworks.io the first

and only art investing platform here's

how they do it masterworks buys artwork

ranging from one million dollars to 30

million dollars by artists like banksy

and picasso then they securitize them

with the sec which basically means send

them over slice and dice them and allow

you to buy shares on their site in an

initial offering similar to an ipo once

you've bought a part of your favorite

piece you can then hold on to it until

the piece is sold at which point you can

cash out or you can sell your shares on

a secondary market to someone else

beforehand so that sounds interesting to

you when you're looking at diversifying

your portfolio away from the madness of

the stock market a bit it's important

that you check out masterworks.io now

there's a link in the description down

below and i'm going to show you how easy

it is to skip the wait list so here's

what you want to do you want to go jump

on over to a browser and just type in

masterworks dot

art slash kevin that's masterworks dot

art kevin and if you click this you're

going to be able to click this button

right here that says skip the wait list

and now we're going to fill out this

information so i'm going to go ahead and

throw in some of this information right

here to submit my application kevin

and i'll throw in my email address it's

nice and easy to do here we'll make a

quick password that we can remember

and then once this is filled out we're

simply going to press the button right

here that's request invitation now that

was in real time there my submission

there we go now we're going to fill out

a little bit about our investor

portfolio so let's go ahead and throw in

here how much i'd consider investing how

about you know the usual there we go and

uh when are we planning to invest this

well of course immediately most of the

time we're looking to diversify we want

to get this done right away now the next

step here is to schedule a member

interview masterworks likes to have

one-on-one conversations with their

investors and this is really cool

because it gives you an opportunity to

learn more about the mechanics of

masterworks and to speak to an art

expert art market expert really really

important and in this call you can learn

about the different artists to markets

their cultural significances and how

they've appreciated over time their

historical performance you can also

learn about the market-driven thesis as

to why masterworks selected certain

artworks now once you're approved there

are many things that you can do the most

important obviously is finding something

that you're interested in and you can

view a lot of information here you could

pop open the sec special purpose of

vehicle documents so that way you can

see exactly what's been registered with

the sec you could review the deal sheet

on the history of this particular

artwork this one here from richter from

germany

and you can see the initial offering in

this but maybe you don't want to pick

this one you prefer the investment

thesis of the same artist from whom jeff

bezos invested in art and uh you could

read the investment thesis on

russia's painting here so you can take a

look at the various different options

that you have here once you are approved

so go check out masterworks in the link

down below use my link and you'll get to

skip the wait list well thanks

masterworks for that so let's get back

to this here look at this okay folks

what they're doing let's zoom in here

this is the same lewis fred all this is

the nominal cpi read remember this is a

basket that starts at essentially a

hundred and then how much does the

basket cost year after year after year

month after month and the basket doesn't

cost a hundred dollars anymore the

basket now costs 281 dollars right

so anyway what some folks are saying is

hey well inflation really started

popping off in april of last year right

here you see this increasing slope here

and what we can do is we can actually

edit this graph just to see this a

little bit easier here let's do percent

change from a year ago there we go and

then let's get a little bit closer so

that way you could get a little bit of a

better idea in terms of what people are

thinking so see this blast off right

here in march and april right here this

explosion in inflation well folks think

that maybe when we lap that here and we

hit april and march here

and i know i'm blocking it a little bit

there we go when we hit april and march

over here maybe

we'll we'll have a lower inflation read

because we will be comparing to these

already higher points the problem though

folks is this section right here is high

not because inflation was necessarily

high here it's because we were comparing

back into this hole look at that hole

see april over here this is the percent

change right here so of course when you

compare into this whole of the pandemic

you're going to have a high inflationary

read right here so this this opium

unfortunately that oh well inflation is

definitely going to peak because look

how high it was uh you know this these

spikes that we're going to have to

compare to that might call for lower

inflation no that was just us coming out

of a hole now we got to report the

inflation that's coming on top of the

hole it's it's a disaster so so you know

as usual when it comes to economics

things can go so deep uh and it's very

simple for folks just to look at like

surface level information and say oh see

there's good news look i i want that to

be good news too that's why i researched

this i'm like is that good news and then

i look i go nope can't use that as good

news

it's exhausting

anyway uh this morning we had roku

complain about a lack of tv panels and

expensive shipping costs they also said

that said something that no investor

wants to hear this is obviously a very

big kathy wood position here this is

something that no innovation investor

wants to hear is the following quote

we've taken our foot off the investment

gas pedal

essentially just to get by right now in

other words they're not investing in

innovation or capex even though they're

an innovation company because they're

dealing with all these inflationary

costs

draftkings gave us low guidance on users

and higher costs it's all about the

guide with earnings right now fox news i

mean this is no surprise they're passing

out more inflation fud talking about how

our defense department is and the wall

street journal did a piece on this like

two weeks ago so i feel like they're two

weeks late on this but whatever uh about

how essentially the defense department

is burning through the money that our

military has

much faster because they don't hedge

against inflation and they're getting

screwed so unless biden gives the

military a larger budget our military is

going to start having to cut

thanks to inflation now redfin also

complained about higher construction

costs which is something that we've

heard earlier this week as well from the

national association of home builders

unfortunately redfin is still in that

eye buyer world where they're still

doing flips

and these are money losing flips that

they're doing and the costs of materials

are just absolutely destroying them

remember zillow got out of this business

and that's actually treating the zillow

stock quite well

ford briefly talked about the idea of

maybe considering splitting the ford

electric vehicle business from the ford

ice business

but they seem so confused about how to

reorganize whether to fully reorganize

or to internally reorganize but a lot of

people are just throwing their hands up

wondering what are you doing for

and then investing in a tesla

now i do want to give a small quick

little update on my portfolio look

obviously since i sold a lot of my

stocks that i was holding are down

substantially more one of the ones

that's up a little bit more from when i

sold but fractionally only is n phase uh

end phase is sitting around maybe like

four dollars higher than what i sold i

mean we're talking about two percent

here but otherwise i hate to say it

tesla's way down so far his way down uh

uh robin hood's down matter ports down

whatever it just it sucks i feel so bad

you know and i know that there are

individuals out there who are like kevin

how how could you how could you say buy

the dip and then sell look

i never

told people to buy the dip while i was

selling right i

was buying the dip because that's what i

was programmed to do i always buy the

dip until all of a sudden it hit me that

this j-power crap is probably going to

lead to a really bad 20 22 long story

short right and this potential cyclical

change that we have to deal with now i'm

waiting for a u-turn to where i decided

uh-uh i gotta get out

and i told everybody about that within

36 hours i i i don't know i ca i don't

feel like i can do any better than that

but a very brief update

on my position so uh and and i hate

being transparent because then people

like over analyze everything i do and

they're like oh well if you would waited

a day you would have gotten a better

deal or oh well if you did this did you

shut up like people are so wanting to

comment on other people and it's so

toxic and nauseating because it's like

you get off your ass and do something

you know people just want to be little

keyboard bullies anyway so uh i did buy

some long positions and not much i don't

want to be more than ten percent long

and so right now my portfolio consists

of two uh 7.5 percent long shares that

doesn't mean i won't trade them it just

means that those are bullish long means

bullish shares i am 2.5

in gold i'm zero percent short

and the rest is cash so that puts me at

about

89 to 90 cash still right now and uh and

really building a little bit of a long

position is not a signal at all that

we've hit any indication of a u-turn

because we haven't i just decided i

didn't want to be 100 cash or 95 cash i

wanted to be more 90 cash so i built a

little bit of a long a little bit of

gold uh and uh and then the rest is cash

so uh just a little bit of an update for

you there now let's do a little bit of

technicals okay so first let's look at

btc here and now one of the things i got

to say about btc is we're in a

disgusting no man's land here okay and i

hate this i will say

that first of all hats off to btc it has

performed substantially better than the

qqq uh over the last uh you know i would

say since since probably the beginning

of january here i mean look at this

from the beginning of january from

january 1st btc is moved from about 45

000 to about 40 000 okay so let's go 40

divided by 45 that means we're down

about 11 percent here right now qqq

which is our our technology index here

we go to the day chart and we go to jan

1

our qqq on jan 3 because there is no

opening on january it was about 3.99 now

we're sitting at 343 343 hey like the

the studios that does halo anyway 3.99

uh that puts us down about 14

so pretty wild to see btc actually

outperform qqq when qqq the nasdaq is

supposed to be a diversified way of

getting exposure to

tech

and uh and btc is generally deemed to be

more of a risk asset well btc is kicking

the nasdaq's butt that's wild absolutely

wild now going back to btc because we do

know that the qq is again still sitting

well under the 200-day moving average in

fact we just had a cross here by the way

a little bit of a death cross i'm just

seeing this now look at that oh wow

take a peek here you got the death cross

here between the 50-day moving average

moving below the 100-day moving average

death cross sign right here let's jump

on over to btc btc did break our 42 000

support that's not ideal uh oops i think

i actually deleted the 42 000 actually

accidentally before i made this video

but anyway we had a shelf over here at

42 which we rode over here in january

we rode it briefly here in mid february

and uh now we're in this no man's land

where if we don't get back to 42 it is

quite possible that we could get back

into this 37 region which i have to say

i'm very impressed that we did not break

well below i mean with the exception of

liquidation days where we went down to

33k we didn't break as low as we did in

the last down cycle where we went in the

summer down to about 28k so in my

opinion this is a higher low for btc

relatively a bullish thing for btc and

especially since btc isn't moving as

miserably as qqq

i just have to say i'm impressed it's

very very good let's look at tesla on

the one hour here we're gonna jump on

over to tesla on the one hour it's

obviously down three percent today but

what i want to show on the one hour here

for tesla is this 880 line is really

weakening it is really weakening it is

continuing to get tested and we continue

to break below it this is not a good

sign for tesla we regularly hit see look

here we are in december bouncing off of

the 880 uh we we've regularly bounced on

numerous days here on january 26th we

bounce in the pre-market the aftermarket

during the day we regularly bounce off

this 880.

but and sometimes we rubber band around

it whatever but this break off of the

880 not so bullish for tesla yesterday

we were dancing around that 880 and i

actually bought a little bit of tesla

slightly above the 880 because i thought

that's all right we've got a support

line here we're breaking that now

obviously we're getting worse news here

from ukraine and so on so maybe that's

why or people are getting more and more

pissed off about the fed but

whatever it's pissing me off uh but it's

just the market that we're in now the

spy another thing that's nasty over here

at the spy is if we zoom out to the day

chart you're gonna get my fibonacci

retracement now let's zoom in onto the

day chart this is the fib retrace here

and one of the things that's uh oh and

yeah there we go one of the things

that's nasty here is that we regularly

regularly have been bouncing between the

38.2 and the 61 line you can see we

continue to get rejected at the 61.8

fibonacci retracement and despite the

fact that we rallied out of the end of

january lows where we were essentially

at the zero level which is at about 4

20. we rallied right out of those to

about 61.8 got rejected fell down under

the 50 all the way down to 38.2 ran

right back up to the 61.8 got rejected

again

went to go chill out at the 38.2 visited

23 6 came back to 38.2 back to 23 6.

this is not good especially since right

now we just had a little wick down to

potentially that 430 support level which

is not actually on the fib it is just an

intermediary support level that we have

here and so there's a fear that if we

break this 430 level again and this

fibonacci breaks down that we're heading

right back to 420 which is possible if

there are escalations in uh in ukraine

that we're going to see that 420 get

revisited again a firm on the day chart

folks there's no support there's just no

support i hate to say there is no

support for profitless companies right

now lemonade maybe has some support uh

you know around this like 25 26 region

right here but come on folks we've

played this game before look at the

channel that we drew between 44 and 39

and it got laughed off and we ended up

moving down again

until we get confirmation that we can

actually bounce off some floors here on

these small caps or money losers stay

away i hate to say it palantir is no

exception

so far unfortunately i hate to say it no

exception it's breaking all of the

levels that we have and it's sad and

those are red flags you know technical

levels aren't impervious they're just a

warning that when they get broken you

gotta move the same thing is true about

matterport i hate to say it it's a great

company but the profit-less companies

are just getting smoke

matterport is actually up about four and

a half percent today but who cares when

this is what your chart looks like

that's like cheering about robin hood

being up which it's not today and this

is the day chart that you're looking up

for robinhood it's miserable do we maybe

have a floor somewhere around twelve

dollars

maybe

but this is what you're betting on we

tried a floor before we tried a floor at

forty dollars and this was a pretty

solid floor sorry profitless just is not

what people care about in this market

right now and it sucks

anyway uh one of the things that i do

want to talk about is companies that are

actually doing well though right now and

this is kind of mind-blowing to me is

look at this for example dave and

busters not only getting off of that 30

as a floor but actually riding high here

macy's a little off some of the highs

that we've seen but also riding stable

carnival cruise lines also riding stable

above their support now

kathy wood calls these value traps and i

got something to say about kathy wood in

just a moment

and she might actually be right about

these being value traps but what i call

these because you know i looked at dave

and busters and just to give you some

numbers here they're trading for less

than 20 times 20 22 earnings which is

great but they've only got 118 million

dollars of cash on hand they've got 271

million dollars of current liabilities

and they've got billions of dollars in

deferred liabilities from like rent

concessions and things i i i don't

understand that they're heavily weighted

under debt and the fact that they're

doing so well in an environment where

interest rates are expected to go up

blows my mind but what it tells me is

that

people might be investing in carnival

macy's and dave buster's and some of

these recovery plays because they're

hopeful they're looking at the consumer

they're seeing the consumers spend more

money than ever before going out they're

seeing bank of america credit card data

telling us that people are spending

money like crazy out uh and about at

travel and retail look at airbnb airbnb

is another one people are so

enthusiastic about this economy and the

spend but this becomes a problem and a

concern when people stop spending this

money right this falls apart when people

stop spending this money and it is

something to be concerned about uh so

whatever right now these are a little

bit of a safe haven okay what about

kathy wood what was i gonna say well i

was gonna say that kathy you know

there's there's this twitter account

prepared remarks they wrote that kathy

wood owns 19 million shares of t-doc

okay t-doc that's that's one of her

biggest holdings next to like tesla and

roku and that right so tdoc is one of

kathy's biggest holdings

and they looked at the daily volume here

and they mentioned that kathy owns 19

million shares and the daily volume here

is anywhere between two and a half to

four million shares per day and they say

that

if she took 25 of the daily volume or

like 800 000 or so 700 000 shares a day

and liquidated tdoc it would take her an

entire month to get out of the tdoc

position because she has so many shares

that would be devastating

for tdoc this is kind of an interesting

point uh anyway

so some companies hitting all-time lows

we got roblox doordash hitting all-time

lows we've got uh some stocks like pound

here so far hitting winter lows summer

of 2020 lows redfin roku draftking

sunrun square winter 2020 lows etsy

there's a lot of pain out there there's

just a lot of pain and it's unfortunate

uh that that this pain continues we have

a little bit of a rebound happening here

today is also

options expiration day and so you're

seeing this increased volatility from

options

it uh it is so much so that like i

mentioned earlier bloomberg's talking

about how this is this is like pretty

much guaranteed going to be a down day

for the spy uh s p 500 you see this

often on off options expiration day

uh not always though not always

sometimes you get to like the quad

witching days and there's less of a

correlation to there but you're

certainly going to see increased

volatility and that's what we're seeing

here today i think a big test here about

how much fear this market has is going

to be how do we end up closing the day

and if you're watching this video later

go look how did we close did the market

rally into the close did we get above

that 23 6 fibonacci where spies above

434 and maybe rallying into the close

above it or did we fall to that 430

level as as

as people closing out positions with

funds prior to the three-day weekend

i don't know let me know what you think

in the comments down below check out the

programs i'm building your wealth link

down below right next to that link for

masterworks and folks

if you want to join me in those everyday

market open live streams see what i'm

thinking about first thing in the

morning

any program will get you into those

linked down below