It's Over.

well it's over no not the coupon code

that expires tomorrow at midnight gosh

no not not yet we still have time there

the Port strike the Port strike is

already over it literally just began

October 1st at midnight which means the

first second third we didn't even make

it a full 3 days we know that the Biden

Administration has been heavily involved

in negotiations here and not because the

Biden Administration has deemed

particularly good at negotiating but

rather because quite frankly they have

to they can't tell the Long Shore

to stop their strike because that would

paint the Biden Administration and

Democrats as anti-un which that's not

going to fly and instead somehow the

maritime Alliance was willing to accept

a 62% pay increase for the Longshore

workers over a 5-year period my guess is

there were some uh back room deals total

speculation that kind of greased the

wheels a little bit from some

politicians that made it a little easier

and palpable for the maritime

Administration to go for this because

now it looks like a political win for

the Biden Administration and the ports

are back open and people don't have to

go hoard toilet paper again because

after all in the last uh 72 hours

everybody seemed to think we were going

back to covid and there were going to be

massive supply chain crises did actually

yield treasury yields to pop up a good

chunk especially on some of the data

that we've been getting on the economy

and I think this is the important Next

Step that we have to pay attention to

because a lot of folks as we talked

about yesterday had been fearing New

Waves of inflation today the stock

market started selling off when the

Biden Administration suggested that they

were working with Israel and evaluating

how to Counterstrike Iran originally

markets were relieved that it looked

like the Biden Administration was

encouraging Israel not to but now it

actually sounds like they're working

with Israel on figuring out how to

Counter-Strike obviously this has led

the stock market fall off as well as the

oil markets to rise we're about 7762 on

Brent right now which is you know a

little more than 10% where we were at

the lows just frankly a month ago and

that could lead to some inflationary

pressures uh the Port strike was another

inflationary pressure but that's gone

now and hopefully the Iranian threat

will be gone now as well now

unfortunately we did get other

inflationary pressures though in for

example the ism Services report which

isn't great this morning ISM prices paid

came in at5 9.4 versus 56 which is

certainly hotter than what we had last

month at 57.3 an expansion level they

basically just survey companies and say

hey did you have to pay more for crap

this month or less or about the same so

and then you just average together 50

Zer or 100 and then the average tells

you the aggregate it doesn't necessarily

say how much more companies are paying

so you could have a higher percentage of

companies and they're all paying 1% more

on an annual basis nobody really cares

it's not really inflationary that's

nominal it's actually below inflationary

Trend but the way these surveys are

conducted are just did you pay more or

less they don't actually get a granular

read on well how much more did you pay

so you get this inflationary impetus

that makes people fear that the second

wave of inflation is coming now the ism

Services index we got our sort of uh um

uh earlier reads on this we got we just

this morning we got the final read for

September we got the flash pmis for the

S&P as well those also came in a little

bit higher on prices paid but we already

knew that from a couple weeks ago but

the point is when you combine all three

of these right the pmis and the isms

that being one the Port strike and the

potential Iranian Counter Strike you get

a lot of fear about inflation coming

back and so in the near term right now

if you take a look at inflation break

evens in other words inflation

expectations Market expectations are

that inflation is going to rise again

right now inflation break even at 2.2%

which is pretty much as high as they

were right around August 1st which was

right before the whole carry trade

disaster now once you remove these

catalysts and you get some new CPI

reports like the report we're going to

get later this month I think you'll

relax the inflationary tensions again

mostly because I don't really see those

as issues most of the inflation that

we're seeing uh is either not being

properly Quantified like through these

ISM reports or there are these temporary

catalysts like

geopolitics or a Port strike which is

now over right so uh CPI will be out on

October 10th which is robotaxi day and

the chief investment officer at Tesla

literally just quit to the day one week

before the robo taxi

event topic for a different video I

suppose I'll just say very very strange

but anyway the inflation expectation for

CPI month over month is 0.1% lower than

the 02 we had last month CPI core is

expected to be 0.2 year-over-year 2.3

year-over-year core 3.2 these are very

very low reads I want to get into the

actual survey to see that 0 2 how much

are we rounding down we are rounding

down from

23 so so far we've only got 18

estimates uh usually we get somewhere

closer to 60 50 to 60 estimates so still

waiting for some estimates to come in

more estimates actually on the low side

of the bell curve like it's a little bit

of a skewed curve uh 1.5 more likely for

that read for the core month over month

than than on the high side so most

analysts seem to think it'll come in low

but that's not going to be the Catalyst

that markets care about right now what

markets care about is going to be that

jobs report coming out tomorrow morning

now I'll be streaming that obviously on

the meet Kevin Market live Channel

totally free you could be there and uh

that market channel uh will be covering

the non-farm payrolls tomorrow at 5:30

in the morning the current expectation

is that they're going to come in at

150,000 which is good but remember the

jobs report is it's kind of a lagging

Tool uh really what you're looking at is

what's a leading indicator o of jobs and

when you look at companies for example

this morning we looked at Dave and

Busters or you know in our course member

live streams or or even just when we

look at companies broadly we see a lot

of companies are trying to cut costs by

hiring less you actually even see that

in the ism Services report if you read

the report which I did this morning and

I go through it I go they say companies

are trimming their Workforce by either

hiring less letting people you know sort

of leave via attrition and then not

refilling those positions or in some

more limited cases they're actually

doing layoffs or quiet layoffs like

Amazon everybody back to work in the

corporate Workforce please some of you

leave it'll bump our EPS you know that's

this is all intentional and it just

shows you sort of the struggles of the

economy where you know earnings are

rising as fast as they used to rise and

companies have to figure out how do we

pop up margins you know another example

here is just I mean this one's a little

more extreme but Spirit Airlines is now

in talks with Bond holders over a

potential bankruptcy filing you know

this just uh news within the last couple

hours here and I posted on X uh a video

of Jack my then 8-year-old actually

doing a fundamental analysis with me of

Spirit Airlines you have to see it it's

it's absolutely hilarious you know what

I'll make it easy for you I'll play it

for you in just a moment okay I think

it's worth you seeing but first I I I

really want to focus on this jobs report

and what this jobs report means and what

it doesn't mean first of all look the

jolts and the ADP report they suggest

this jobs report should be fine so I

think treasury yields have already

reflected that this is probably going to

be either an at expectations or a bub

jobs report but we haven't gotten the

qcw payroll revisions and we won't for

quite a while remember we got the

revisions through March in August okay

that's 5 months later to actually get

the revisions you're not going to get

the revisions uh you know for example

for September for what until uh you know

five more months after that period so

sometime February March of next year

it's kind of crazy so jpow already

recognizes this and what he recognizes

is that the lab Market is more likely to

be a leading indicator of a economic

distress not through the jobs report but

rather through anecdotal evidence they

actually stated themselves that they

find anecdotal evidence is more

important than jobs reports even though

the jobs reports going to be important

tomorrow the Market's going to trade on

it don't get me wrong the Market's going

to move like crazy on it but they look

at anecdotal data and so when they see

this ISM report that says you know ISM

services employment comes in at 4 48.1

in contraction once again 3 months in a

row now in contraction that's something

they're paying attention to and uh when

they see Challenger job Cuts higher than

expected when they see the Challenger

jobs report that's as terrible as it was

these are things that that concern japal

remember three warnings he gave us I

actually put together a list of these

sort of recessionary indicators over at

ec.com but anyway uh he gave us three

really important warnings uh one of the

warnings uh was that the labor market

better predict recessions the GDP two is

that we have to consider the revisions

take a while to come in we already

covered the those discussions uh but

then you know he also gave us this weird

pause about is 50 going to lead to a

soft landing and I think it really

evidences his concerns over the labor

market so this jobs report I know I'm I

don't put a lot of credit on this jobs

report even though I know the markets

are going to trade like crazy on it

here's what it takes for me to really go

bullish for me to really go bullish I

have to see the earnings first of all we

got to get rid of these other stresses

we already know that we get rid of these

other stresses but then we see earnings

for companies and I don't really care

about Q3 earnings I care about guidance

and if all of the companies report and

they all say we're growing so much we're

back to hiring we're back to hiring

we're back to hiring we're back to

hiring

fantastic in September I don't know what

it is but in September it is very common

seasonally to see a pop up in the jobs

report uh or sorry in the jolts report

for job openings it seems to be

regularly in September you get these

pump pops up popups but my concern is

that you know after you got this in

anticipation potentially of Port strike

temporary hiring or long-term hiring or

new orders uh or whatever so you have

the stock before the Port strike I

realize now the Port strike is over but

now do you potentially did you pull

forward a bunch of demand artificial to

September and now you potentially go

into a hole right before the

election and then what is that going to

do for layoff plans going forward into

January not generally so much November

December maybe but people want to get

through the holiday season of spending

and then come the layoffs so I don't

think we're out of the woods uh and my

take also is that when you look at

someone like a BCA research this is the

company this is the same company that

told us that in investor ability to

allocate cash right now is at record

lows households and investment firms

that most of money markets are really

just like companies that have access to

that Capital but take a look at this

they say a recession is imminent and

favored Tech stock set to Crater like

the nifty50

did all right well that might be a

little parabolic and extreme but it's

okay I'm going to I'm going to simplify

this a little bit because I'm simply

going to start with hey you know the the

coupon expires tomorrow right go check

it out me kevin.com you get my cour

member live stream analysis and we get

to do Q&A together it's really awesome

check it out before the coupon expires

at 11:59 p.m. always add value to it as

well and the goal is that anytime you

have a question about something you can

always hit me up in those course member

live streams uh we love chatting there

every day thank you by the way uh Jeff I

see just signed up for the platinum

membership Kenneth signed up Todd

Timothy thank you so much for joining up

appreciate a lot of you and uh and then

all the others of you who've joined in

the last uh day or so here thank you so

much okay so let's get into uh remember

you get lifetime access there you pay

once you're in Forever it's a great deal

over at me kevin.com recession is

imminent and favored okay what do they

say here the rise and fall of the

nifty50 stocks in the 70s is a

cautionary tale for investors in The

Magnificent Seven craze the nifty50

referred to basically a bunch of stocks

that generated some pretty crazy returns

magnificent uh seven may not be The

Reincarnation of the nifty50 but

investors can learn from past Manas and

panics and they're referring to what's

happening right now with a cautionary

tale and warning of group think

suggesting that quite frankly a lot of

these companies specifically paying

attention to Nvidia have gotten a little

too rich they say that the 1970s

phenomenon might not be the exact

blueprint of what's to come uh but when

you combine index weightings regulatory

scrutiny where things sit with

valuations and where the economy sits

right now they seem to be very bearish

especially since they think and have

expectations for an imminent recession

now I I I just want to be very clear

about my take on recession I think that

if we don't have a shock in

October uh the the odds of recession do

fall if we don't have a shock

by February you know maybe March 1st

we've probably stuck a soft

Landing so one of the problems that I

have as an investor and I think it's

always important for everybody to sort

of look at themselves and say hey like

what's your problem when it comes to

investing one of the problems that I

have is I

I see Trends very

early and I just get in very early

and then sometimes they still have a

hard time to get through and then they

do really well right not I'm not

guaranteeing or saying that it's always

like that I'm just saying sometimes you

know it's like all right you bought the

dip and it's

like no who it keeps dipping that just

happens sometimes as an investor and

then it comes up and you're like oh okay

yeah I didn't get the perfect bottom

there

but and so this this is where as much as

I've said on the channel uh that I've

been getting more bullish because of

these Trends and new orders I also want

to be careful to consider this pull

forward of demand and I have absolutely

no idea how much this pull forward of

demand to make sure that companies have

enough Supply and inventory before the

holiday season uh occurred relative to

other years to where some of the data we

might be getting for September might be

really skewed and it's it's artificially

making the economy look stronger than is

now I'm not trying to sound like a bear

because I feel like you could say that

all the time it's like oh the data is

good well it must be wrong then like I

feel like that just sounds like a jaded

person but we knew this Port strike was

coming since June and I think a lot of

companies saw this being a really big

problem 50% of goods and services coming

into the country held up by these Port

strikes and you know Port strike the

workers are going back to work on on uh

Friday so you'll have what five down

days or whatever uh and they are only

pausing until January and then I think

they want to keep negotiating but

because they have an agreement and you

know so far in place it does seem like

they'll go back to work Full Speed Ahead

but anyway uh you know what what I'm

most concerned about is what if the

recession does indeed occur but it

happens a little bit later than expected

as in right now markets seem to be

convinced that the Market's going to go

straight up after the election because

quite frankly it usually

does Okay cool so what happens

if everybody bought before the election

and then after the election people are

like what does this

mean and the market sells off towards

the end of the year as people will take

profits or do whatever I have no idea

you know that's all like crystal ball

stuff but at some point the risk is

layoffs and the trend for companies the

leading trend for companies is less

hiring not more and so while the jobs

report tomorrow is important I don't

think it fully can make me a bull now if

we get a really good jobs report

beginning of November and we get really

good guidance from

companies in other words like you know

we get the Q3 earnings and then

companies are like man Q4 is looking

great already because remember we're

already in Q4 right so most of the

earnings are going to happen you know

two or 3 weeks four weeks two to four

two to 5 weeks into the fourth quarter

so they'll be asked on the earnings call

hey how are the consumers doing how's

macro doing how's the economy doing if

they're like it's kind of like the

summer we're getting worse I'm going to

be bearish you know right now I'm

probably like a 4.1 on the bare bull

scale if these earnings come out and

they're like dude this is way better

than the summer we don't know what

happened in the summer but everything's

better inflation down we're selling more

this is

great might officially be time to flip

so uh and trust me I really want to flip

like I just I want to be really honest

with you uh when you're a

bull everybody loves you because you're

telling everybody how everything's going

to go

up when you're a bull and everything's

going down everybody loves you too

because you're telling them it's okay

but when you're a bear everybody hates

you when things are going up because

you're the contrarian and when things

are going down people hate you because

you're making money and they're losing

money so it's extremely difficult to be

uh a

bear uh I just I just can't help myself

you could look at my list of

recessionary indicators over at um

ec.com I've got them all broken down uh

anyway I did promise to show you the uh

Jack video clip so I'm going to do that

uh after uh I just quickly mention uh if

you are interested in wealth Consulting

what we think we've come up with is a

better phrase wealth

strategist and uh

Financial concierge that get that's like

a long title we got to think of a better

name maybe you could leave a comment

with a better one but wealth strategist

and financial concierge that's kind of

what we think we are and we think that

because we do so much more than just

advice about equities I mean right like

today I I've been going back and forth

with the team about people you know and

they own businesses or you know they

have social media brands or they have

products companies or they want to sell

a company or they want to sell a lot or

they want to deal with a code problem or

what like all of these things in

conjunction with like trying to solve

all of these with taxes and stock

allocations and diversification

retirement there's so much and so we're

really engaged in all this and we're

really enjoying this so thank you to

those of you who have signed up over at

stack.com the name needs to probably be

something more encompassing but oh well

uh anyway go check that out at stock

act.com if you're interested in it it

set up a a free intro call to see if the

service is right for you and uh with

that said let's take a listen to The

Amazing Jack and his commentary on

Spirit Airlines which is now go in BK

and I'll hide myself while we do

it do you know who spirit is wait Jack

tell us who

Spirit very bad air why what makes it

very

bad it just is it just is okay yeah what

color are the planes yellow wow okay all

right okay well let's see uh you want to

see if they make

money I already know they don't

how do you know

that YouTube

you uh let's find out for sure uh

operating revenues so how much money

they brought in okay let's take a look

at this operating revenues right here

see that number mhm so uh that's in in

thousands which means you actually have

to add like three digits to this isn't

that kind of crazy so do you know what

kind of number that is right there

that's how much money they brought in

and like tickets and selling food and

stuff like that um is it

1,2 huh I get that number yeah it's a

pretty big number man so that's thousand

right there that's million that's

billion so they make a billion dollars

they they they collected $1.2 billion do

you know how much they spent let's find

out all of it all of it

dude you're a comedian man um Jack

you're wrong they didn't spend all of it

they spent that much wait what's the

number of

again wait isn't that

higher

yes now if only we had Jack In Charge

instead of the politicians they might

actually have a balanced budget

anyway thanks so much for being here

good luck everyone good luck tomorrow on

the jobs report see yall soon goodbye

and good luck why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin P there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

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