The Middle Class is about to get DESTROYED.

the middle class is about to get screwed

in this video I'm going to explain how

that affects you as an individual and

how it could affect real estate and the

stock market and it's not going to be

what you think it's going to be pretty

frustrating and really good for some

folks here we go first we just had a

jobs report that came in roughly in line

with the pre pandemic which seems good

but it totally missed expectations we

were looking at $240,000 on a survey and

we got

175,000 jobs that's not good because it

means for some reason the data we're

getting is not aligning with what

economists are actually looking at

suggesting that maybe underneath the

surface some worsening Trends are

cooking that aren't good and being

picked up by economic data in fact for

this jobs report there were 76 qualified

economic analysts and corporations

coming with these estimates only two of

them were looking at a number under

175,000 and all of them other than three

were

above 200 or equal to 200 so in other

words how did 73 out of 76 economists

over 90% of the economists get it wrong

what's possible that there's more of a

weakening and it could affect your

stocks real estate and importantly your

job job look at this earnings call from

zip recruiter this earnings call for zip

recruiter suggests 2023 demand for

recruiting Services dropped throughout

the year for all company sizes in this

earnings call they actually talk about

how it started with small companies it

started in the smbs the small to

medium-sized businesses but it actually

ended up expanding to larger Enterprises

as well in fact yesterday we made a

video where we talked about how it

looked like there were some anecdotes

about people over at YouTube music

getting laid off because AI was starting

to take their jobs we could see more of

that but not to be redone it to

yesterday it's important to just use

that as a reference point and add more

data to that which is zip recruiter

being concerned that not only are we

seeing quits back to prepandemic levels

which is somewhat being referred to as

dare I say the great

staying yeah digest that one for a

moment remember remember that back at

during covid there was sort of this uh

great

resignation now folks are actually

calling this the great staying or the

big stay take a look at this uh the

executives over at zip recruiter say the

great resignation has turned into the

big stay and we see that as something

that is working through the system after

the tumult of people starting to shelter

in place during Co

a great reshuffling in terms of the big

resignation the great resignation and

now sort of digesting that stuff but the

problem isn't so much okay the

recruiting company is having issues it's

where is the labor market going from

here out and right now zip recruiter

says that the labor market is flattening

out but throughout the entire earnings

call they say usually what happens is it

flattens out and then it declines

further they don't actually know if the

Q4 Peak that they saw in terms of pain

for the labor market is the peak or if

we're just flattening out to fall off

again and basically get even worse data

so when I say Peak I mean the worst bad

it's s like the peak of bad data right

we don't know if that's flattening out

or it's going to get worse but we do

know that usually let's say up is bad

for them so you Peak out Q3 the entire

or Q4 the entire year things get worse

so they see out a little a little bit of

flattening and then usually when they

see a flattening they start seeing data

get worse again and again I'm going up

here to imply more unemployment the way

to think about this so zip recruiters is

not happy they're saying look if things

get worse we're ready to be nimble and

cut more expenses it's not just zip

recruiter though it's also other

companies like ranot ranot is a company

from Amsterdam but you might know that

company a lot better by its us sort of

name and that's

monster.com monster.com is owned by

run and in their earnings call they

indicate the same thing they suggest

that basically the labor market is

pretty soft across the entire world

Germany is getting hit hard and it's not

getting better France is getting hit

hard North America is getting hit hard

and this all has to do with new hiring

that's a leading indicator that suggests

problems could be coming for people's

jobs so in other words if you're part of

the middle to upper middle class and you

lose your job it could be really hard to

get a replacement job so what then

happens and how does this relate to

drone pow in the fed and how does it

relate to what could happen in real

estate and what could happen with

foreclosures and what could happen with

the stock market let's analyze this

first drone pow was weirdly doish on

Wednesday why was he so soft we were not

expecting that we were expecting more of

a neutral Powell but we got a pretty

doish Powell well as I tweeted this

morning you should follow me on uh

Twitter or X at a real meet Kevin now we

know why Jerome Powell was doish

Wednesday as suspected and he's told us

this so it's not a big secret that he

knows this data often times beforehand

he can kind of call into the Bureau of

Labor Statistics and get some tentative

Data before it's released to the public

and so calls in as suspected drone PW

likely had this jobs Data before his

fomc speech

now we know why he was doish much weaker

jobs report than expected with less wage

gains not great now we understand why

Jerome Powell is picking up on the

leading indicators and he's going doish

this is not a matter of flip-flopping

with the data on the fed or whatever

this is a matter of seeing this

transition happening at the fed and

we're trying to understand why is the

Fed biased to want to cut and boy you

got to see what just happened with rate

cut expectations and again this is going

to lead to what happens with real estate

and stocks but first I just want to

shout out that we did extend this just

briefly to today the stocks and

psychology of money group and the buy

sell trade alerts this morning I threw

what I thought was a risky bet on a call

option but I played my trading analysis

lines almost perfectly I go we could get

a breakout on this line I think we're

going to go from this line to here it

was n phase 113 to 118 I'm throwing

45,000 bucks on this boom 5 X baby 20K

on the trade today I post my pnls if you

want my Buy sell alerts make sure you're

part of the stocks and psychology money

group link down below we are going to

officially raise the price this evening

so check that out uh but what's very

important now is how does drum pow's

doish and these worsening leading

indicators affect inflation and then the

greater Market well remember Jerome

Powell doesn't seem convinced that

there's going to be a second wave of

inflation if you're a second wave of

inflation person you're probably

probably going to want to be heavily

exposed to cash not personalized

Financial advice because things are

probably going to get a lot worse but I

want to show you an example of how

companies when they've been used to

raising prices for a while they tend to

be a little sticky and when they reduce

prices and that's because of ego let me

show you one of the most egotistical

companies I've discovered and I have to

say it's it's a scary site it's really

scary uh it's really disappointing

because I used to have a lot of respect

uh and now it's just uh clear to me that

uh this is nothing but ego uh and so I'm

going to put this picture up on screen I

just I just don't want you to be scared

by this here it

is go sorry wrong one it's right here

it's the Starbucks earnings call so this

is the Starbucks earnings call Starbucks

went all in on building out Starbuck's

in China and the thought was that they

were able going to be able to bring

premium coffee to China and by bringing

premium coffee to China they would

basically double their market and be

able to substantially double their

revenues that's what restaurants and and

you know food and beverage companies do

they build more locations so they can

grow so your goal is build build build

build build build so you get more and

more and more revs so your stock can go

up your earnings go up you get more

scale as you're buying stuff but I want

you to listen to Just this and tell me

what you think about the Starbucks ego

here as they face problems in China

you're ready for for this I'm going to

hide myself and read it out to you here

we go actually you know what we'll take

the laser pointer so let me start with

competition in China I think the growth

that's taking place in the Mass area of

the China uh of the China business of

the China overall coffee and tea segment

is one where we just see intense price

competition hm okay remember what

happens after intense price competition

first you have too little of a product

like think AI okay oh my gosh we have

too few AI chips we do not have enough

AI chips we need more everybody gets

into making AI chips AI chips that

should be selling for $7,000 like an

h100 sell for $3 to $40,000 or 50 or 60

on the black market or even more then

all of a sudden everybody gets into

building capacity to manufacturing ships

everybody gets into competing products

the prices come back down to reality

until you turn into like a lithium uh uh

you know uh commodity where all of a

sudden price is complet completely

collapse and actually becomes a lot

cheaper to build out the infrastructure

okay well that's normal the problem

though is when you have an ego and you

don't adapt to more Supply like the

growth of a luck in coffee or the growth

of Labor Supply see where I'm going with

this you actually end up missing out on

the warning signs that prices and wages

are potentially about to collapse I'm

just using Starbucks China as an example

because these same things I think are

going to happen in the United States

with wages and inflation in the second

half of the year now we have to wait and

see are those actually going to happen

but this has a very real possibility and

based on just the data we're looking at

look at this so watch the ego again

we're seeing intense price competition

so is Starbucks reducing their prices in

the face of you know as uh we have

special situations here on Twitter or X

posting about how cheap coffees are in

China from companies like lock and

coffee or otherwise lot of competition

what's Starbucks's response to this

Starbucks's response is we're choosing

not to participate in that we are a

premium brand we've built a business

over 25 years with a great deal of

competitive advantages you could see

that there we have amazing Partners in

stores we have stores that look

distinctive we have a tradition of

coffee oh my Lord the

ego we are traditionalists we're a

premium brand we choose not to

participate and lowering prices you're

going to get screwed and you're going to

realize it too late and then you're

going to drop prices too late and guess

what happens when you drop prices too

late you're behind the curve and then

you're screwed that same exact thing can

happen with jobs in America Jobs go

first it happens slowly Jobs go first

then earnings roll over Jobs go earnings

roll over earnings roll over less people

hire the people who got laid off then

you have a recession then we potentially

go into real estate foreclosures uh on

people who financed homes in 2022

thinking it would always be easier to

just resign and get another job because

the job market is so intense and they've

got a 7 and a half% loan and then what

happens they're like oh well rates will

come down I'll be able to refinance good

luck refinancing without a job or a

whole lot lower pay so what potentially

happens in the market as the job market

rolls over which is I think what Jerome

Powell's starting to see and we're

definitely already seeing at the

recruiting firms it's not actually a

wage price spiral concern it's

potentially actually the opposite it's

that wage gains actually go

negative because people start being

willing to work for less just to get a

job so how does that screw the middle

class consumer when companies start

realizing they're going to be forced to

lower prices as Supply chains stabilize

eventually we're going to get this Mass

disinflation potentially through a

recession this is why I'm a little

struggling it's kind of like okay like

yes we've got some hotter inflation

numbers now but that's holding up

because the econom is holding up GDP is

holding up but again as those prices

start rolling over earnings growth rolls

over those layoffs increase like we're

already starting to see then people

don't have jobs then people can't buy

then that leads to a self-fulfilling

cycle of less hiring then you run into

real problems and who is it a problem

for or should I say whom is it a problem

for what's a problem for the middle

class the person who's working maybe

they've got they're making somewhere

between 50 to a couple hundred th000 a

year I know that's a broad range that's

why we call it the middle class lower

class obviously we want to see you get

into the middle class could be an

opportunity to get in but it gets harder

to get in because you have to have now

potential the ability to acquire more

skills to level up and be willing to

work for Less that could be a way to get

in right so let's say somebody else is a

computer programmer software engineer

and they're like I need $200,000 a year

and you graduate and you're in a lower

class and you're going bro I'll I'll

take a job just for 70 like just get me

in right that actually does give you an

opportunity to level up but that means

those 200k programmers are like crap you

know I'm going to have to go down to 100

just to get a job again that means I

have less money to spend on stuff

not great that's where you could

actually see negative growth in pay and

that's kind of what we started seeing in

the report today a miss not only on the

number of people getting employed but

also a Miss on how much wages were going

up

so what then happens to stocks in real

estate ah yes stocks in real estate well

I hate to say it because it's not what

you would

expect if the Federal Reserve starts

rapidly cutting interest rates there are

going to be massive changes in real

estate and the stock market as of

Wednesday morning the market was only

expecting 1.2 rate Cuts this year after

this morning's jobs report the market

started expecting 1.9 rate Cuts this

year rounded up from

1.87 that's problematic because it's an

indication that the Market's going

oh wait a minute maybe the jobs Market

isn't as strong as we think it is maybe

we do need to get rate Cuts I understand

the market feels bipolar right and I'll

tell you kind of where like my head is

in all

this but I think as we get rate

Cuts guess who's going to

benefit the wealthiest are going to

benefit the people who have the ability

to go buy real estate people have cash

to go buy real estate people have the

ability to go buy the dip the people who

have the ability to hold on to their

stocks and as rate Cuts come down

interest rate sensitive sectors start

potentially rebounding and the stuff

that wealthy people spend money on like

durables like fancy cars premium cars uh

new cars for their friends and family

solar panels solar whatever houses

that's where you start seeing that

spending again the people who aren't

worried about losing their jobs or even

if they didn't have a job they have

enough Capital to keep spending and so

that's where the rich keep getting

richer the people who get screwed are

the middle class cuz again the lower

class can pop in and take jobs from The

Middle CL class at a lower cost and get

into the right of being the middle class

people get screwed of the lower class

Who start now getting replaced with

people willing to work for less if they

lose their job it's much harder to get

another job now they have less Capital

to go spend and invest or buy cars or

buy real estate or whatever and the

dreams of refinancing at lower rates

when rates come down poof because your

wages just went down now your debt to

income ratio is too high anyway this

doesn't actually mean that you're going

to have a real estate

crash it's possible if you have enough

foreclosures but you would really need

to see enough foreclosures and enough of

an inventory move up personally I think

we're going to be a little bit more

sideways in the near- term but you never

know we didn't see the kind of crazy

lending that we saw in 2006 in single

family seeing some more of that in

commercial and multifam uh which creates

some really good opportunities in my

opinion to buy the dip just have to be

careful that the dip doesn't keep on

dipping on you but this is in my opinion

a real warning to the middle class that

I'm personally worried about if I were

in a situation where I was working for

say you know $120 $200,000 $70,000 a

year whatever I'd be thinking to myself

okay what do I do if I lose my job well

first of all uh I don't want to lose my

job so I'm going to try to figure out

everything I can to make sure I provide

as much value as possible and I would

also start getting really satisfied with

my current job and being there for the

next at least probably 2 years 3 years

somewhere in there in that window so

like if you were itching to like go to a

different company I'd probably really be

thinking about okay what can I do here

to provide more value for the next two

or three years and to make sure that I'm

not part of the first layoff cycle or

rather the next layoff cycle right so

I'd be buckling up going hey um what can

I do to provide more value to the

business you need any licenses do you

need any I don't know need somebody stay

in after work or before work or whatever

you got to become

Irreplaceable now I want this I'm

purposfully trying to create that

warning now it's not to fearmonger it's

to

hedge maybe maybe nobody loses their job

in your company maybe the economy just

keeps booming and everything just goes

to all-time Highs but would it not be

better to buckle up and hedge provide

more value at your job get some more

skill sets you're a bookkeeper become a

CPA you're a junior software programmer

what certifications do you need to

become a senior software

programmer you're a real estate agent

what do you need to become a broker or

an mllo see what I mean like your

registered nurse what is it going to

take to become a doctor I I don't

actually think healthcare is going to

have as many problems but but it'd be

nice for you to have more capital in the

event there's a downturn right so what

can you do to increase that that income

that top line that is so important right

now and it's exceptionally important

because if the leading indicators with

today's jobs report continue on this

trend and inflation starts rolling over

we're going to see big rate Cuts we'll

also see that those massive M price

declines will actually potentially roll

into

disinflation which I know is counter to

what we've seen so far in the

inflationary Trend at the beginning of

this year but it's a possibility and

then that's where job Cuts come because

now all of a sudden your year-over-year

Revenue numbers start going down rather

than up like you don't have the Tailwind

of inflation actually helping you beat

on earnings anymore you're missing on

earnings so I made this little chart

over at ec.com it's not really a chart

it's more like a list but anyway I wrote

Kevin sentiment indicator for the last

two months mons so I wrote one is Kevin

is full bear 10 is Kevin is full bull so

then I give some examples 10 covid by

the dip Kevin refinances all houses in

March of 2020 and Yolo's on Larry cow's

v-shaped for the stock market I made a

lot of money doing that that was good

one which is full bear January of 2022

would have been a full 10 I was making

Titanic syncing videos and suggesting

bonds facts and stable coins would

collapse and Banks honestly

watch that video just type into YouTube

meet Kevin Titanic market crash you'll

literally see me predict bank failures

stable coin failures all dressed up in a

Titanic video it's it's probably my most

epic

video two and a half would be early

March 2024 this is going cash I'm a bear

hot data for January Fab I'm like this

isn't good the Federal Reserve is going

to pow us this isn't great then we get

our and we have earnings coming up which

could be bad I go to five on the first

week of tech earnings because of

confidence and guidance that the

consumer so far is still holding up

though I'm diversifying right I think

it's important to to note uh also though

diversifying owning uh owning more

stocks SL less concentrated on Singles

right so broadening out second week of

tech earnings I go to about a six and

after JP and about about a

7.5 in terms of bullishness on the stock

market so I'm I'm not like full Perma

bull here but you can kind of see this

transition uh you can go to ec.com and

read the whole thing if you want but

that's that's kind of how I feel right

now where I still I'm still more cash

than like a full bull but I also have

concerns obviously inflation could run

up our next report will be March 15th

obviously coupon code expires today

finally sorry we had to extend a little

bit there were too many emails emails at

staff atme kevin.com for questions or

bundles uh and then obviously uh you JP

was pretty dang doish why was he doish

well we start looking at some of these

these earnings reports which soon we're

going to be getting uh the next earnings

report for zip recruiter that'll be

really interesting we get that uh in six

days you know we're going to have a lot

more data that's going to say hey is

this job situation about to become a

little bit more serious or are we going

to be able to keep flying this plane so

we'll have to watch for it uh some folks

are saying Bitcoin is starting to Snuff

it out I I I don't know how particularly

true that is is but um you know Bitcoin

did roll down to almost $56,000 there

for a moment actually bounced off one of

our lines it's that 62 today on that

better jobs data you know still getting

some recovery here but uh that bounce

over there that 575 is some people are

saying Bitcoin is starting to Snuff out

some potential issues in the economy

though I actually think that when we get

rate Cuts Bitcoin along with a lot of

risk assets will actually do quite well

uh you just have to be careful because

some company earning are really going to

collapse probably like your Staples

McDonald's Coke you know Costco stuff

like that uh but the interest rate

sensitives I expect will do quite well

you know the Teslas the end phase

whatever again because they're like

wealthy people money spending companies

money recipient company anyway you get

the idea anyway that's my warning I wish

you the best good luck if you like my

perspective on building your wealth

check out the courses link down below

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last two trades I did I have to say very

proud of uh the the trade I just did

this morning was a 20K p&l and then the

trade before that was $511,000 I turned

100 into uh into a 500K gain so I turned

100 into 600 that was crazy that was

really cool uh I could have had that

same ratio if I had the same balls this

morning but I went with a smaller bed

this morning anyway uh yeah so this is

um check those courses out linked down

below thank you so much for being here

and uh we'll see you in the next one

stay tuned and buckle up why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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