AMD *JUST* TANKED [AI Warning] & Reddit, Google EXPLOSION [EARNINGS] Stocks
FULL TRANSCRIPT
well we just got earnings and here's a
quick rundown of everything that you
need to know before we get into all the
details of the earnings calls here you
go first of all watch reddit reddit this
thing just came in with a crazy surprise
I mean it is up 177% right now uh in
after hours this is going to Skyrocket
this to alltime highs we've never been
at this level before uh for Reddit uh
Reddit comes in with average revenue per
user
$5.88 per quarter which means if you use
Reddit every quarter You Were Somehow
earning this company
$5.88 and they've got like
48.2 million daily active users in the
United States they've got
97.2 million active users worldwide and
this company was not expected to be
profitable until next year so uh they
were expected to have a 13 .8 million
loss they actually came in with uh a
gain here of
$29.9 million which is actually really
really incredible uh if you consider the
um net income they're expected to have
next year of about 226 million that's a
net income bottom line they're expected
to be at about a buck a share for uh for
EPS it still puts their valuation pretty
dang Rich up there because you know
you're looking at now basically a $95
stock selling for a 95p ratio but their
revenue could also double over the next
you know it's expected to go up 85 86%
in 26 another 90% in 2027 and 23% in
2028 so maybe it's a growth story might
be a little early to tell though how
their um their actual earnings look uh
and how sustainable that could be
because sometimes when they take
adjusted EPs and they're like oh yeah
all of a sudden we're we're profitable
you know there could be kind of
gamesmanship going on in there I'm not
trying to sound jaded on Reddit but I
mean hey we'll just take a quick look at
their financials their revenue exploded
so I mean they're pulling this cat you
know bunny out of a hat or whatever you
want to call it somehow I mean look at
the 9 months ended you went from 554
million to 872 million you went from uh
the quarter ended from 207 to 348 this
is a great boost of Revenue now you did
boost your sales and marketing but I
mean you almost doubled your revenue and
uh your sales and marketing are up like
50% so so you have this positive
operating leverage you are spending more
money on research and development but I
mean you're still making money you're
bringing money to the bottom line now so
a lot of people pretty excited about
what's going on over at Reddit uh they
do have at the moment it looks like
you've got uh free cash flow which is
great they did sell some crypto how dare
they sell they paper handed some crypto
uh so it looks like they sold about oh
what do we got here this looks like
thousands million about $7 million worth
of crypto and if I jump into their
balance sheet for a moment I see assets
of about $2 billion and I see total
liabilities of $194 million this company
is like cash Rich so honestly good job
Reddit this is really impressive I don't
use the product I don't know much about
it but you know what good for them uh
then you got AMD and Lisa Sue says that
there's insatiable demand for more
compute they matched on earnings per
share on an adjusted basis however their
Q4 forecast was down by just 66 basis
points just to like reiterate what that
means for a moment that means they were
down
66% on the forecast uh and uh then their
stock fell 4% and then their forecasted
forecast margin fell by 20 basis points
and then you started getting the Doomer
headlines AMD forecast falls short
suggesting a slower pace of AI growth
and now the stock's down I mean I'm
watching it right here it's down you
know 7% it's only taking Nvidia down
like a quarter of a percent with it so
it's pretty nominal for NVIDIA but you
get a little bit of a bleed Here In
fairness the stock was up 4% today and
it's kind of been rallying going into
this so maybe it's not that big of a
deal and quite frankly you know they're
still growing pretty well because when
you actually look at their earning
statement which is right here you can
see that they're expecting to see
year-over-year growth of 22% and 10%
quarter like sequential growth which
means from last quarter to this quarter
still 10% that's really really good so
you know I don't I don't actually see
this as bad uh I actually think this is
just this is just good the problem is
when you get markets that are at sort of
all-time highs and they have lofty
expectations you kind of think you just
keep growing forever but then the law of
large numbers catch up and it's sort of
like reality sets in you're like oh yeah
that's right we can't really do that
forever now one company that I think
really crushed it here that I think
should be up way higher than this so I
have no exposure to the stock right now
I I wish I did after this it's up 4.2%
but but I don't uh and it's Google uh so
Google beat on Cloud by 5.1% YouTube
basically math matched expectations but
their earnings per share were up
15.2% at Revenue beat by about 5050
basis points which is really low I think
the reason the stock isn't up more
though is because ad revenue is the vast
majority of this business uh just a
fraction of the business is cloud we'll
look at the statement in just a moment
uh and and you know a lot of people are
saying they don't give forecasts I don't
have a forecast or anything from them so
you know who knows uh but at least for
the quarter ended in September they
killed it I mean just look at the
statement for a moment Google services
up 133% Cloud up 35% total op operating
income up 34% and I'm a a Google Cloud
customer and frankly they're they keep
introducing new AI products and they
keep wanting to charge more and more for
them for for Enterprise uh AI products
and and uh you know I I keep I feel like
I keep giving them more and more money
so maybe I should have been my own
indicator uh sometimes I feel like I
should just listen to myself but anyway
uh it's worth noting that 12.8% of
Google Revenue comes from cloud uh most
of their revenue comes from like YouTube
and network and Google Google search and
I will say the AI built directly into
Google search is pretty amazing it's
it's a very very smart integration of
artificial intelligence I love it I
think it's very useful and I'm a big fan
so shout out to Google here I think they
did a fantastic job uh read through a
little bit of their statement here and I
think they have very very reasonable
operating leverage increases here their
margins are moving up uh they've got
over uh $16 billion dollar of free cash
flow and this is just a yeah 17.6
billion this is just a fantastic company
so so big fan here uh Google just tried
and true I mean it it it feels like a
great company so so great great great
job Google I I don't really have
anything bad to say here we'll see what
happens in the earnings uh next one to
mention is uh since I haven't yet uh
house hack has uh a really cool offering
in case you want to invest in house hack
then we're going to talk Snapchat and
chiple it uh we've got uh uh a pretty
awesome offer so if you want to learn
about that go over to house hack.com you
get all the the upside in the stock uh
you know once we go public or get a
valuation in the future but in the
meantime you lock in a 5% Distribution
on an annual basis that we pay out to
you monthly learn about that over at
house act.com there's a whole video and
presentation disclosures and a PPM so
make sure to read all that stuff okay so
Snapchat came in with uh an alert that
there might be slower holiday
advertising sales which is interesting
because it's kind of also what UPS
warned that there might be sort of a
tempered Outlook for this holiday season
the stock still went up about
4% and their Q3 basically matched
expectations but they're also doing a
$500 million buyback so that could be
what's what you're getting there uh then
you had Chipotle so Chipotle missed they
did authorize a $900 million buyback but
they missed about 1.6% on their revenue
forecast and they missed by about
7.9% on new stores
and they missed on comp sales by about
6% all of those were sort of enough to
maybe tell the market like hey the
Chipotle valuation is a little on the
rich side may maybe we don't want to be
paying this much money for this sort of
stock and so I mean it's still you know
it's closed at like 60 bucks today it's
only down 5% like big deal it's still
you know pretty remarkable in terms of
where its pricing is but I mean consider
this is a company that's selling for a
55 times uh you know multiple and you've
got a projected growth of maybe 18% over
the next four years on average so you
know when you divide that out that's 55
divided by 18 you're trading for a three
peg for a company that's giving you rice
and beans it's a little Rich uh but
their margins are great you know
operating margin at 16.9% beat the 15.7%
expectation I got give it to us pretty
damn good First Solar Miss uh they
missed on uh Revenue they missed on
operating income by
11% uh they are down about 6.9% in after
hours they are reducing their capex and
uh their um operating income forecast
unfortunately there's probably just a
lot of uncertainty around solar right
now in general because like markets are
basically pricing in at Trump which is
you know he's obviously a little bit
more anti uh how dare you say uh you
know clean energy but I mean you heard
him on the if you want me to do a
summary on The Joe Rogan pod I'll do the
summary on The Joe Rogan pod but you
know Trump's anti- windmills and EV
mandate and all I I think we all kind of
already know that uh but anyway uh so
you know take a look over here as we
approach the end of 2024 we remain
pleased with the progress across our
business navigating against a backdrop
of Industry volatility and political
uncertainty there it is Al Berto here
says Market is screaming melt up all
right uh so then you've got over here
with a continued focus on balancing
growth profitability and liquidity we
expect our disciplined long-term
approach will get us through the uh us
election so they're basically just going
to blame the election the problem is if
these sort of like negative numbers keep
coming in I mean look look at this
downside the 3 months ending June 30th
they had over a billion in revenue and
now they're at under
900 million
you know that's a hit their gross
profits down like 10% that's a hit their
sgna is the same their R&D is the same
production startup costs down a little
bit but then they have a litigation well
and then they're comping against the
litigation loss so that's a benefit for
them uh since they don't have that here
but uh you know when we look at net
income they're net income still down
like 10 to 15ish perc or whatever so so
you are getting slapped in the face a
little bit they're blaming the election
but once the election comes and goes
there going to be a little bit of a
problem
so uh we we we'll see what happens here
uh some people in the comments are
asking yeah what's going to happen with
Tesla uh you know I think that is also a
big irony is that like you know Donald
Trump is so blunt about like I'm going
to get rid of the EV mandate and Elon is
such a you know proponent of of Elon or
of of Donald Trump but then I think the
counterargument here is that you know
Elon thinks Tesla will be the Eevee
maker to survive and it'll really just
hurt the Fords and the GMS and the other
ones okay Visa is uh laying off about
1,400 employees by the end of the year
4.6% of their staff gone this is not
good especially with that weaker jolts
report it just sort of reiterates again
that one of the ways companies are
bumping profits is just by firing people
uh that is unfortunate because
eventually that is going to catch up to
the economy especially in an environment
where yields are
rising this is this is a slow growth
economy you know the econom is
slowing and and everybody hopes we're
going to have that soft Landing but you
know as it's slowing they're actually
adding more weight to our back with
these uh with with with higher yields in
markets it's not exactly ideal uh with
that said though Visa is still
forecasting an increase of high single
digits to low double digit Revenue
growth uh for this holiday season coming
up uh and then cheesecake actually beat
on comp sales 1.6% versus the
expectation of 1.03% expected it's
pretty good and Caesar's matched
expectations but they were still down
like 5% cheesecake's actually up like 5%
though on this by the way they they're
they're pretty enthused and I think
that's just because they've gone nowhere
over the last 3 years so is what it is I
guess uh but uh some things to watch for
tomorrow and if you want we can do you
know sort of another S I don't I don't
know if you find these useful or
whatever but if if you do you know let
me know uh but uh we're obviously going
to get some more earnings tomorrow we're
going to get uh Wing Stop caterpillar
Eli Lily in the morning we'll get the
ADP report GDP annualized we'll get the
advance report price index for GDP uh
Wednesday p.m we'll get Microsoft meta
coinbase Robin Hood carvana Etsy Roku
Starbucks Dash St Dash lemonade and eBay
uh and the Thursday we'll get pelaton
MasterCard Uber Norwegian the employment
cost index report in the PM we'll get
Amazon Apple Intel Friday morning we'll
get Wayfare assignment Property Group
Chevron and the jobs report which is
expected to come in poopy dupy so we'll
see what happens but so far this is a 7%
drop on AMD kind of curious to see what
this is going to end up doing to you
know markets tomorrow I'm looking at
Tesla down about 43 bips I got the q's
almost flat although they're pretty much
at alltime highs 500 on the q's is
really impressive and BTC dropped a bit
after some of these AMD earnings but it
looks like you're already kind of on its
way uh back to to uh to sort of recovery
here so we shall see anyway uh that's
all I got for us if you got questions
about house email us at IR house act.com
otherwise thanks so much for being here
we'll see you in the next one goodbye
and good luck why not advertise these
things that you told us here I feel like
nobody else knows about this we'll we'll
try a little advertising and see how it
goes congratulations man you have done
so much people love you people look up
to you Kevin P there financial analyst
and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to
get your take
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