BREAKING: Black Friday was *BAD* | Massive Deflation Coming.

I'm beat today is Black Friday and I

just got back from exploring retail

demand first hand because I've been

reading retailers earnings calls best by

Target Walmart Macy's you name it to try

to understand what's going on with

retailers at the corporate level but I

like to understand both the office and

in person just like my father-in-law

used to say if you want to close a deal

you do it belly to belly now let's talk

about what I saw when I went out and how

it aligns with what or doesn't align

with what I heard in earnings calls and

let's talk about what this means for the

Federal Reserve now since it is Black

Friday evening I want you to know a

following well the following updates

first 60 off coupon code it's Black

Friday that means it expires tonight I'm

probably gonna be up for about the next

12 hours because I've got to drop the

elite Hustlers course so after I post

this I'm gonna finish organizing the

elite Hustlers course and make sure that

gets posted on time today I promised a

good drop today so I got two hours left

and I got a big cup of coffee brewing

and it's 9 47 so I guess I have actually

two hours and 13 minutes lucky me

with that said let's get into the

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started links by the way medkevin.com so

I went to Best Buy with Jack that was my

first stop and when I first went into

Best Buy I saw what I had actually been

hearing in multiple calls and that is

that air fires are expected to be

popular this season and I swear the

first two people I actually saw in the

line that had stuff were either carrying

an air fryer or about to pick up an air

fryer to get into the lime there were a

lot of lines at Best Buy and Best Buy

looked packed the parking lot was

slammed but I'll tell you this people

didn't really actually seem to be buying

that much stuff like usually on Black

Friday and I look when I was a child

through teenager through when I met

Lauren I was the Black Friday man I like

or kid okay I would be the guy who would

go to the midnight Black Friday I would

because they didn't do Thanksgiving back

then it was it was midnight you go to

the midnight Rush at the mall and

everybody's slamming everybody it's like

an alley in South Korea okay then it

might be too soon then you you go to the

5 30 a.m sales at like BrandsMart which

we're always freaking insane and then

you go to the best buys the Comp USA the

Circuit City and all the other stores

that are basically bankrupt like Block

Plus Buster anyway uh it was fun but

back then people had carts full of stuff

that's when you bought everything now In

fairness we didn't do online as much

back then so that could be shaving off

some of this in fact when I spoke with

somebody outside of the Banana Republic

one of the security individuals because

there was a long queue of individuals

trying to get inside of it they

mentioned that a lot of people were

actually uh ordering online because they

were either frustrated with what was

going on in store or they were ordering

online and then coming to pick it up in

store and so they had a queue out the

door because they didn't have enough

staff to process all the demand that's

what I heard from Banana Republic but

boy oh boy when I looked into Best Buy a

little bit deeper whom of course I had

Jack company with or where of course

Jack accompanied me with which was super

fun it was nice to bring Jack around and

tell him what I was up to and you know

he was showing me his stuff that he was

interested in I was showing him my stuff

I was interested in and boy what I was

shocked by was it was five o'clock and

look at the freaking inventory

holy smokes I don't know what they were

prepared for here

but these are a lot of TVs I'm gonna ask

about this this is a mad house of

inventory I'm gonna show you clip after

clip after clip here of just inventory

inventory inventory everywhere you look

inventory and it's five o'clock so I

asked one of the uh individuals who

seemed like they were a manager and they

said they had gone through 50 of their

TVs and I looked around I go really I

mean your back shelves are stocked and

you're still stocked out there it's like

yep 50 sold and I'm like all right looks

like you still got some more work too I

don't believe it I mean sure when I got

there one person was walking out with a

TV but

this is an insane amount of inventory

you want computers we got computers you

want printers we got printers you want

Alexa stuff we got Alexa stuff there was

so much crap everywhere and it it made

me look at the store and I'm like

this is what deflation looks like look

at all these TVs Roku wants to get in

this business Roku thinks they're going

to be competitive

75-inch TV 529 dollars for a 75 incher

we are about to see the gnarliest price

discounts in January my expectation I

think retailers are going to go holy and

pardon my French here okay plug the

children's ears holy we ordered way

too much crap

because it's insane I mean the aisles

are overflowing with stuff and I I like

back in the old Black Friday days

that stuff was gone by like 10 a.m like

the shelves were bare back in the days

uh-uh not today in fact

I just came back and I read a Bloomberg

article about this and the Bloomberg

article talks about U.S Shoppers kickoff

holiday season with a muted Black Friday

U.S retailers discounted heavily on

Black Friday to clear out bloated

inventory but spending was more cautious

many had heavy inventory misjudging the

erosion in demand by buyers a retail

consultant interviewed by Bloomberg said

it's a win but not where retailers want

sales to be Adobe indicated Thanksgiving

sales were up 2.9 percent but adjusted

for inflation that's a loss of over five

percent

and when I went through the outlet malls

I asked as many stores as I possibly

could where I also couldn't find parking

which by the way there weren't even that

many people that I could tell that were

actually actively like with bags I mean

there were some but I thought there

would have been way more people with

actually bags and stuff nope and so uh

when I asked that stores I go hey like

why a q why why is there a line to get

in the store I mean I even looked in

some of the stores and I'm like the

store doesn't look that busy what's

going on like let people in let them buy

and they're like we don't have the staff

because people are going in they're

grabbing stuff and then they're making a

mess and then we need somebody to come

clean it and then we can invite more

guests in because we don't want to give

a bad impression and I'm like

well this ain't how we used to do Black

Friday you should see how Black Friday

used to be done

you know I'm starting to say I feel like

I started to sound like an old person it

was like well back when you guys was

below a dollar which I did that in a

live stream this morning I'm like I

remember guess what it was 97 cents for

a short time when I was seven years old

which got that was about 23 years ago so

that was like 1999 how vile to that as a

Disney World am I we had just driven uh

four hours my dad's like

under a buck baby I won the lottery we

had like zero money back then okay zero

I mean like going to it was Disney World

because it was Florida but like that was

scraping paycheck to paycheck savings

together it was tough

yeah I'll never forget that time that's

tough

um

all right well Story Time can come a

different time that's gonna make me

emotional anyway so then I went to

Walmart and I'm like okay well Walmart

was bragging about sales although most

of their sales were in grocery because

obviously like you know Best Buy like 50

50 of Best Buy's Revenue comes from

personal Computing and phones

dude the shelves are full of that crap

and like I don't see people buying uh

it's crazy I mean people are looking at

the washing machines I don't see anyone

Wheeling them out I mean maybe they're

on order you know I don't know uh but

let me just say what I saw looked like

deflation and I'm like I'll just I'll go

to Walmart let's see what's going on

over there and I look at the TV aisle

and they have a ton of TV stocked every

year too I mean they got Junk stacked

everywhere uh even in the the little

Christmas aisles and stuff they got

stuff stacked and then I look and I'm

like oh man they still have all of the

TV mounts stacked up on the sides it's

like nobody's buying and I'm thinking to

myself like

oh my gosh uh I mean unless they just

want everything to look plentiful so you

take it and think you're getting a good

deal or something like that and this is

all like a mirage these companies have

way too much stuff

they can't get rid of it

I don't think they can get rid of it

profitably I think this is a red flag

season for retailers I think this is a

bad situation for retailers on top of

being a bad situation for retailers

I think January we're going to start

seeing businesses go effort we gotta

clear this inventory because otherwise

it's going to stagnate and then we're

going to lose and then you're gonna see

a race to the bottom and that could lead

to some really insane levels of Kathy

Woody in style deflation coming Jan to

March I don't know if we're gonna be

clear by December yet but

you know December CPI numbers are gonna

pick up Black Friday

discounting time yeah and I and Cyber

Monday I would not be surprised if

retailers are like holy crap Black

Friday was not good for us caught prices

more

which is actually very bullish for maybe

not necessarily consumer goods stocks

probably not very bullish for those

earnings at all but for the stock market

overall potentially quite bullish but I

think that all of the optimism about

retail misplaced very very misplaced

this was this was not good what I saw

but you could see yourself I'll put the

clips I actually edited I spent some

more time editing this video actually

I'm kind of saying that as if I already

did it I actually haven't actually

edited the video yet because I'm still

filming the video but you know by the

time you watch it I'll have edited it

and and I you know I'd like some

compliments because usually I don't do

this

all right thanks y'all I appreciate you

happy Black Friday met kevin.com join uh

I'm probably gonna be up all night so

it's gonna be a bit before we change the

pricing for Black Friday uh but check

out as soon as you can and um

I'm gonna make it worth your while

thanks so much for watching we'll see

the next one goodbye all right jack well

you have a lesson for everybody go ahead

Mr

mister are not solid but they are

clouded