It's Not Different This Time

Hello followers of the four-year

journey. This is Bob Lucas on February

5th, 2026. I hope you're well. And this

is a follow-up to the I think it was

around the Christmas period video

discussing the bare phase that's coming

up. So the charts are ugly. There's no

doubt obviously about that. We're

clearly now in a bare market decline.

And I covered this in the last video

where the 4-year cycle structure had

topped and we were in a declining phase.

This has now accelerated and we're at

the point where there were beyond any

doubt. Of course, we've lost the

10-month. We did lose 10 month in the

last few months. We've lost the 20-month

moving average and we're now clearly in

and deep into the declining phase of

this 4-year cycle. The unfortunate part

is from a timing perspective and the

most accurate component of any cycle

analysis is the lows, not the top, the

lows. And we're still well short of the

typical place where things will bottom

out. From a sentiment perspective, we

feel like we're very, very close. And in

these short and intermediate time

frames, we're also significantly

oversold, which means that these five

red monthly candles that we're seeing

are probably we're probably going to

reverse it temporarily this trend and

possibly even close this current month,

which only started 5 days in the green.

So, I think a big counter trend move is

probably now overdue. But in a bare

phase, in a capitulation kind of

environment, that's not something you

can bank on as well. The first kind of

uh rule in in in a declining phase is

that surprises come to the downside. The

selling can always get worse than what

it seems, and you're not trying to sort

of just pick bottoms. Certainly not from

a short-term perspective. Looking at the

cycle count, we are now sitting on month

39 of the cycle. that is measured of

course from the bare market lows with a

peak of 35 months which is matching the

prior 4ear cycle highs. Now as you all

know people have been following for the

longest time I don't get married on the

highs. It so happened that this one

peaked on month 35 again. I think in

future cycles that would not be the

case. But for now we can leave that

aside and focus on the declining phase.

Month 39 which means we've now closed

more than 3 years. The window for where

the next cycle low forms however is

technically not until October of this

year which is still a long way out from

this point forward. So technically this

4-year cycle declining phase still has a

number of months to go and you know the

these bare market declines are a

process. They take time even though

sentiment today feels as if it can't get

worse. Uh generally it's a process on

the way down. It's a step down process.

But in between that there are these

counter trend moves that help to sort of

bring sentiment back more towards a

neutral posture allowing for the bare

face to then continue on. So it's not

just one straight move down is the

point. And you see that in prior cycles

as well where you get these sharp moves

down then you get the counter trend

move. You get the counter move and it's

a process. This is the first big leg

down that hasn't really given us much of

a move higher and I think we're going to

get one of those moves soon. We just

don't know from where that comes. Does

it come from a lower level maybe around

the 200 day moving average closer to the

low 60,000s? Nobody knows in the short

term in an environment like this. But I

think we will see at least one big sharp

move higher.

That's probably a multimonth, even a

multi-week for sure, for for sure, but a

full monthly candle, maybe two monthly

candles to the upside that would draw

everybody back in and get them to start

believing again in some of these washed

up narratives like liquidity cycle and

business cycle and and cycles extended

and all these narratives that I've been

hearing and frankly over the last four

or five months uh received a lot of kind

of hate on the four-year cycle. uh it

was very very vocal, very loud from very

very many uh prominent people in the

space and the the price action here is

showing us otherwise that this is a

regular four-year cycle from this

perspective and the declining phase is

now firmly in control. Uh I will say

though that this you know and many

people have pointed this out this cycle

from an onchain perspective from an

onchain metrics perspective was not like

the prior cycles and I agree with that

from a topping perspective we didn't hit

the euphoria that we expected or had

seen in prior cycles uh some of the

onrain metrics that just didn't come

anywhere near your traditional top

levels and and my and I introduced this

in in a prior video but my logic or

reason for that is simply that this was

a bare cycle. Doesn't look like it from

a Bitcoin only perspective. We made a

clear all-time high over many, many

months over the prior cycle high. But

when you factor in that we had a

president of the United States, the most

powerful nation in the world, win an

election and was extremely pro- Bitcoin,

pro- crypto, we had a change in the SEC

from an extremely um um you know

negative

uh crypto perspective to a very pro

crypto. We had the ETF that was approved

and launched. We had DATs bringing in

tens of billions of dollars, the ETF bit

bringing in tens of billions of dollars

and again a regulatory change. This move

that you saw since those changes really

occurred which was in this cluster does

not match

this price appreciation does not match

come anywhere near close to matching

what we saw in those regulatory and

institutional changes. And that's why

this was and is in my opinion a bare

cycle. We got off to a very fast start

for me was going to be a left translated

cycle that I don't think eventually

simply because of the tailwind provided

by the uh those changes I just mentioned

when you look at total three for example

right what we did what we saw here was

basically a double top and and again

given all those changes the speculative

side of this market couldn't even make a

new high or barely made a new high from

market capital perspective that speaks

volumes and to me this would have been

yet another double top and we would have

seen much lower prices if it wasn't for

all of those changes. So the reason for

saying that is I do think that we have

seen a radical major shift in the whole

space. A shift from the cipher punk era

of freedom and individuality to a

capture uh by treadfi and wall street

institutions of this market. So the

structure the the nature of crypto has

changed and I I think they are going to

pump this up in the next cycle and

cycles to come. But for now, we're going

to have to deal and work through a

complete wash out of this space over the

coming months. The other concern, and I

know this looks attractive, 67,000

uh on on Bitcoin, and and let me say, if

you have a very long-term view, you're a

pure hodler, this is not a place you

want to be selling. Uh I'm not even

going to be looking at selling any more

in the fouryear cycle active huddle

strategy at these levels. No way you're

selling at a 45% off the highs. Even

though I expect lower prices this year,

the riskreward

just does not warrant selling at these

levels. At a high level, yes, but not at

these levels, not 5 months into this

decline and five red candles. I'll talk

about a little later on about some exit

strategies, some more exit strategies

perhaps coming up. But for now, if

you're purely looking at hardling, then

you're starting to nibble in the 60s.

You're certainly going to be buying in

the 50s if we get there or when we get

there more likely in the coming months.

So again, this is oversold

significantly. But the main concern that

we have is that the S&P 500, the equity

market, stock markets also follow a

four-year cycle. they have for many many

decades. Although the last few haven't

been as clean, we still have a 4-year

cycle here

in uh in the equity markets. That does

line up as well where with where Bitcoin

found its its um its cycle low and right

now this just made an all-time high in

January and is threatening perhaps. It's

still a very perfect bull trend as far

as I'm concerned. there's no real sign

that's broken down. But if we get into

the declining phase of the four-year

cycle for the equity markets, then

that's certainly going to hammer crypto

at the same time. Maybe not to the same

extent. And the argument could be made

that crypto or Bitcoin is leading or has

certainly is leading in at the moment.

This divergence is clear. The argument

could be made that Bitcoin bottoms out

sooner than equity markets. But I think,

make no mistake, if if the equity

markets start to trend down, it'll

probably be a twostep process down

first, initial move lower, and then a

bounce and then another move lower. If

that were to occur, I see a situation

where Bitcoin follows in the first big

move lower and then possibly diverges

out as the equity markets make a sec

secondary or subsequent move lower that

Bitcoin can bottom out at that point.

before that move and not follow down and

continue to move higher. So, this is

still a risk. Equity markets haven't

really broken down at all. They are

certainly historically overvalued and

they're in the timing band for a peak of

their own. So, this is something we're

going to be watching. But just switching

back to Bitcoin here on this on this

chart, this to me looks like every other

cycle is behaving like every other

cycle. And if you look at the carnage in

the altcoin space, which still has a

long way to go perhaps some of those big

names are down 65% from the highs, but

they they have chart structures that

look to me as if they're going to fall

yet another 50% at some point. Now

again, this is oversold. They're all

oversold and I think a sharp move's

coming. So from a from an exit strategy

last video it sold some more at the

90,000 level and I clearly stated in

that video the reason for selling at

90,000 was I was concerned that we may

not get the big counter trend move I was

hoping for to exit some more and just in

case I wanted to lighten up some more in

case we got this type of move that we're

seeing right now. So that's the reason

for that move that was met with some

pretty brutal kind of commentary in

general uh for selling. But uh such as

such as um investing, I'm pretty happy

with with that. Uh what I wish happened

differently and where I think this could

have been done um better from my

perspective is I did have a significant

u order in uh to sell at 100,000

and that countren move made it back to

98 just 2,000 shy of unwinding more of

the position which in hindsight probably

at the 90 or even the 95 or some level

up there should just start reducing

positions. Uh my thought here was that

we'd get a good counter trend move back

into that 100,000 range that didn't

eventuate and now we're at 67. Again,

the active huddle strategy is trying to

unwind when the trend breaks. Not trying

to pick a top. It's not trying to say

it's month 35, the calendar's hit, let's

just sell arbitrarily. It's not the

strategy. The strategy is to wait for

clear evidence of breakdown

and then start to unwind as much as

possible that makes sense in preparation

for the next four years cycle low where

we can buy back in. So we have what we

have at the moment about half of that

strategy has has unwound. Uh there was

even a lot of hate back in April of last

year at 80,000 selling. Um, and most of

that heat came from the strategy

followers. Uh, because I did post about

strategy there and strategy since then

is down 56 from the April sell and down

75. So, if they had panic cell at that

point, they'd be save themselves around

60%. But again, water under the bridge

at the moment here on on Bitcoin. Again,

this looks just like every other cycle.

I think what we're going to see at some

point, I don't know if that's from a

60,000 level, maybe even lower than

that. Who knows? But at some point, I

think uh by March, April, I think we'll

see a bounce back. We may get back to

the 90,000 level. We may even get back

to 95 or so. This is a process on the

way down. And any move up here will just

get bulls excited again and create a new

narrative about what just happened and a

new narrative of why we can be a super

cycle way why the four-year cycle is is

broken. even though uh the evidence here

is pretty clear and I think what you'll

see after a countdown move is the final

move down another 3 or 4 month move

down. Now, the October lows is starting

to become a focus again, right? Because

people were saying, well, the four-year

cycle is right and October's the next

low because it happened, you know,

around the four-year mark in that cycle.

It happened the four year mark, the

prior cycle, just like the peaks

happened. And just so you know, cycle

lows generally are way more consistent.

And uh you you want to kind of focus on

that being the higher probability time

frame for the next low, but they can

fall much sooner and later too. A 10%

swing on either side of that from a

timing standpoint, bringing you four to

five months sooner than where the sort

of the ideal timing is. So four to five

months there get you to a May time

frame. Now the only way I see something

like a May or early cycle low form is if

this doesn't give us a good bounce back.

A good bounce back over a month or two

month period allows then for this to

develop into a more prolonged bare

market. A much a continuation without

any bounce gets to the type of wash out

type of sentiment levels where a cycle

low can form sooner. So, going to be

watching out here over the next couple

of months to see how this develops. But

a situation where we have say seven red

candles and we're at the 50,000 level or

so by the May time frame could well

induce an early cycle low in the 4-year

time frame. And a situation like that

would basically look like a move down

into say May

around that maybe 50,000 level, maybe

lower. Then what happens is you get a

big bounce and then instead of making a

new low, you form a higher low around

that 48-month mark and then the next

cycle begins. I'm not going to talk

about what I think the next cycle might

look like. I'll save that for this to

unfold, to develop, to get a better feel

and read for how this could be

unfolding.

But right now, it's just a matter of uh

being more in this sort of protective

mode. long-term holders are looking at

this more from an opportunity

standpoint. Whatever selling was to be

done has is over. This is well and truly

into the bare phase of the cycle and

again too far down. If you're in all

coins though, I think the narrative

still is that yes, you're hurting.

You're down significantly, but it's not

too late to at least come out of it with

some of your of you of your capital

intact in preparation for the next cycle

low. With that, I want to wish you all

the best. Take care.