wtf JUST happened… watch BEFORE tomorrow

holy moly dow jones down 1.94 2.38 on

the s p 500 nasdaq down 2.75 nasdaq was

green this morning russell down 2.12

what does this have to do with what's

happening tomorrow well in my opinion

everything because what we're about to

talk about with expectations for

tomorrow ain't that great but what is

great is you can get 50 off on the

programs on building your wealth link

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the cpi report comes out tomorrow and

boy oh boy it's expected to get worse

not better i mean even at the top of the

financial times we've got global hunger

risk rises as talks stall on ukraine

grain blockade boy that's a mouthful but

yes 20 million tons of grain being held

up the united nations warning about a

health crisis because of famine in

emerging countries this sucks and it's

going to lead energy and food costs to

go up in the united states as well and

that's probably going to get reflected

in the may cpi read which comes out

again at 5 30 a.m pacific time and 8 30

a.m eastern time tomorrow morning i'll

probably go live

on the channel so stay tuned for that

but anyway folks housing we've got

housing is uh makes up about one-third

of a weight in cpi we expect housing to

go up

that is specifically rents rents have

kind of a lagging indicator in the cpi

report so unfortunately with housing

being a one-third weight and uh rents

going up on average about point five

percent month over month every month we

tend to keep getting high inflation

right so we're getting high inflation

from housing energy food

travel housing so like lodging in hotels

boy last month up 1.7

at an annualized rate that's over 19

way too hot fed not going to be very

happy about that travel

transportation services last month were

up 3.1 in one month that's nearly a 40

annualized gain in transportation

services air travel was up 10.7

in march and up 18.6 in april you don't

even want to annualize those numbers

because you'd be talking like 200

percent increases in airfare absolutely

insane the only thing actually going

down though cruises within

transportation cruises are seeing their

prices go down which is definitely

weighing on cruise ship stocks and folks

are wondering why is this because it

seems like uh when people are kind of

over the pandemic but for some reason

cruise demand that isn't blowing up as

much as air travel demand is and cruise

lines appear to be having a harder time

at least according to bank of america's

research institute having a harder time

attracting new customers potentially why

they're seeing actually prices come down

to increase competitiveness right

we do expect apparel prices to come down

they did last month as well expect them

to come down now as well we also expect

technology costs to come down

we've got commodities for it like chip

wafers or whatever

silicone those it went down 5.3 last

month hopefully we see more of these

reductions and costs here as supply

chains on snarl tv down uh 2.19 percent

pc computers personal computers down

2.12

last month so we'll see where these main

sectors that were big movers last month

come in in the cpi report tomorrow let's

talk about the big numbers that

everybody always wants to talk about

when it comes to cpi right after i

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all right so let's look at some of these

charts here all right oh boy look at

this one all right

month-over-month cpi expectations last

month we were at point three

well here's the bar chart the middle

midpoint point seven is the current

forecasted uh month over month inflation

rate unfortunately when you multiply 0.7

you end up with 8.4 when you multiply it

by 12. that's a little bit of a bummer

because that's kind of where headline

inflation is it's that 8.3 percent

that's more than the headline inflation

read it's not good what we really need

here is a big miss to the downside on

the headline number but unfortunately

nobody's expecting that we're actually

going to get that right now so hopefully

we do but you know hopefully goes so far

core cpi is uh was last month 0.6

it's now expected to come in at 0.5 core

strips out the more volatile food and

energy category the very tippy tap one

over here we'll get to strip that out

and when we strip that out we've got

estimates here coming in at a midpoint

of 0.5 right here sort of in the middle

of this chart and then in my little

drawings here you could see where the

estimates really are so like for example

on the month over month you've got the

bulk of them here between 0.65 and 0.85

right here you got the bulk of the

estimates coming in between 0.45 and

0.55 and again we're expecting 0.5 last

month we were at 0.6 and we go over here

to cpi year over year this is your

headline news grabber

we were last month at 8.3 percent and

this is a pretty almost even

distribution here of where the estimates

are coming in but the vast majority of

majority of them right here between 8.2

and 8.3 but look whether we get 8.1 or

8.4 or anything in between doesn't

really matter because quite frankly

inflation is just way too high i don't

think this is the cpi report that's

going to show that okay we've got an

actual decline in inflation

maybe come september but probably not

may cpi reports so we've got some more

waiting to do tomorrow

about an hour and a half after the cpi

report comes out we will also get

consumer expectations for inflation in

one year

this is very important it was at five

point three percent we needed to stay at

one point or at five point three percent

that is consumers expect inflation to be

five point three percent in a year from

now

or come down

if those inflation expectations go up

very bad signal to the federal reserve

expect more feds speak about how hard

they're going to fight inflation and

they're going to get inflation down

they're going to raise rates they're

going to do what they got to do

we expect consumer sentiment to come in

at 58.1

remember any read above 50 is positive

in this sort of survey below 50 is a

negative uh 58.1 is

a pretty pretty low sentiment though

we are we were at 2008 levels of

sentiment uh and uh this can go below

50. it's not below 50 right now but

we'll get an update for

uh consumer sentiment from the

university of michigan well folks that

is tomorrow at 5 30 a.m check out the

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folks we'll see in the next one thanks

so much bye