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before the price goes up hey everyone

meet kevin here in this video we're

going to talk about two catalysts that

we have to be aware of that are

unfolding tomorrow that's friday

december 3rd this catalyst shift

tomorrow will be an indicator as to

whether or not we should continue to buy

the dip or

we need to hold on with buying the dip

stick to cash a little bit longer

because things are going to get worse

before they get better remember i've

been selling stocks for the last three

weeks waiting for this dip and catalyst

opportunity i did not know exactly what

kind of catalyst we were going to be

running up against but now we've got a

pretty good idea of the catalyst we're

running up against we know that we've

got end of the year profit taking and a

loss taking we know that we've got the

big ones jobs and the uh budget deficit

government shutdown potential which

we're going to be talking about

expectations for that in just a moment

we know that we've got the fomc meeting

coming up in the middle of this month we

know we've got inflation data coming up

on the 10th of this month and we know

that we've got some some euphoria in

specific sectors that has been expected

to cool we've seen software evaluations

start getting compressed potentially

under the fear that when rates go higher

software valuations will compress now i

will say i've been cheering for docusign

to fall under 200. i was not expecting

it to fall to 169 where it is right now

so i did a little bit of buy the dipping

and i might do a little bit more by the

different but tomorrow might be a tell

for me am i buying the dip too early or

are

that is are things going to get worse

before they get better or am i

performing just right where i've spent

about maybe 30 35 40 of the cash that i

have and i'm buying the dip and i'm

waiting for some of the other catalysts

over the next week to play out which

honestly expect a lot of them to be

nothing burgers but let me tell you

exactly what to pay attention to for

tomorrow

keep in mind the biggest goal that i

have in this dip here is to buy more

high growth

high margin companies my favorite most

high conviction stocks for high growth

and high margin which i do think i have

the potential of selling down more are

etsy

roblox

so fine end phase apple

google

tesla

although their net margin isn't super

high yet

nvidia

chip play metaverse play uh and then

outside of those i'm also looking at

disney paypal

matterport and potentially a trade on

some of the recovery stocks like

carnival cruise lines although i'll be

in that very uh briefly uh also looking

for a recovery or some sort of rotation

on uh financial services like coinbase

robin hood which i do expect that we'll

see so

with that said what are we gonna what do

we need to pay attention to for tomorrow

well there are a couple things the very

first thing you should write this down

the very first thing that you're going

to be looking for tomorrow are payroll

numbers

if we get a big beat here well there are

a few ways we can cut let me give you

the numbers first and then let's try to

break this down so first things first

payroll expectations right now are that

we will see

550 000 jobs so write that number down

550 000 jobs

if that number

comes in way higher than expected at say

789 hundred thousand a million

that could potentially lead the market

to sell down as individuals believe

maybe the economy is indeed overheating

and jerome powell does need to lower uh

or raise interest rates to combat

inflation but it's not just going to be

that top line number because the bigger

that top line number is the more part

one of the federal reserve's mandate is

achieved maximum employment right but

then we also have price stability and we

also get a price stability till tomorrow

we're expecting an

annualized month over month rate so you

take the month of a month rate you

multiply it by 12 not compounded i've

explained that before already on the

channel we just want to know what speed

are we going at right now not the

distance we're traveling we're expecting

a speed of 0.4

that is an inflation rate of about 4.8

annualized for wage growth

so the two big numbers you're going to

look at tomorrow top line number if it's

a lot higher than 550 could be a problem

if it's a miss if it's anything below

550 that could actually be good because

it might slow down the taper lead more

kind of cheap money to flow into the

economy so anything over 550 not so

ideal anything over

0.4 on that wage calculation is going to

be something that could potentially make

the market a little bit more nervous

especially if we got a number like let's

say 0.7 because 0.7 times 12 is an

annualized inflation rate of 8.4 percent

in wage growth that's going to start

creating nervousness and discussions for

the next month about a wage price spiral

this would be a negative catalyst so

tomorrow i think is a really big

potential inflection point for the

market where we're either going to see

the market go

okay all right you know things things

are good things aren't overheating but

things are good and as long as things

are good

then hey you know what buy the dip

that i think is what we're looking for

otherwise if we get bad news the dip

will keep dipping like docusign's now at

166. it started filming this at 169 and

that is a dip that keeps on dipping

right now in the after hours it's not

good

it is after hours so who knows it could

it could end up recovering tomorrow or

it won't remember uh we've been talking

about valuation compression for software

companies on this channel for almost

three weeks now i've been warning that

software companies are likely to see uh

compressed

uh earnings

and that's why i've been encouraging

hardware companies with high margin the

end phase the apple the tesla the nvidia

but anyway not financial advice i'm just

the stock doctor

all right so then we've got the next

catalyst

the budget all right we need to talk

about this

mitch mcconnell right now at the time of

this recording is actually meeting with

joe manchin this is very very rare i

expect that joe manchin and mitch

mcconnell are talking about their

strategy for whether or not that build

back better plan is ever actually going

to get taken up in the senate

but

as they strategize on whether or not

they're going to take up the buildback

better plan which i do expect they'll

pay take up the buildback better plan at

some point next year because joe manchin

could just roll and go hey that's fine

i'm fine with the buildback better plan

i expect that mitch mcconnell is

republican joe manchin's a democrat he's

that key vote in the middle right i

would expect that mitch mcconnell is

asking joe manchin hey look we're

thinking about uh kicking the can down

the road on the government shutdown

we're thinking about kicking the can

down the road until february are you

cool

basically just holding out with us until

february before dealing with the

buildback better plan mitch mcconnell

would want that to happen because mitch

mcconnell will then

have

his base

and democrats nervous about the election

coming up in november campaigning season

is spring in the summer right before the

fall election and campaigning season

starts right when that can's going to be

getting kicked down the road for the

2022 election which is going to make

things probably tougher

for getting the buildback better plan

done so i think mitch mcconnell is kind

of looking for like hey we'll get you

the vote i'll kick in the can down the

road till february we'll get democrats

to vote for this the house is voting to

pass

the extension right now we expect it to

pass the house we expect it to pass the

senate but i believe that's what's

happening here background negotiations

about hey let's let's kick the can down

the road let's just pick up build back

better in the budget in the springtime

let's get through the holidays let's get

through the vacation in my opinion that

is actually going to if this ends up

happening in the next 24 hours here 24

to 36 hours and we end up averting a

shutdown that's gonna be good news for

the market so you've kind of got this

potential for double good news bad news

or mix uh and cnbc will not stop talking

about docusign plummeting which please

fine keep talking about docusign

plummeting it's fine with me i want i've

been wanting to buy that company under

200 for a very long time i'm kind of

happy that it's on sale i think uh

we'll we'll see where it bottoms out but

uh i might be adding to this one a

little bit more uh okay so

here's the thing what's very very

important right now is

how these two things are going to play

out

again if jobs numbers come out in our

favor

buy the dip

if jobs numbers do not come in in our

favor

we could be in for more pain

a lot more pain

then

flipping the script if we end up getting

a budget or government shutdown that's

going to lead to more uncertainty and

nervousness and that's not good

uh oh yeah look at this as we move

through q3 and into the next quarter and

they just put the screen away basically

docusign saying they're seeing people's

urgency to buy subscriptions for

docusign waning and those docusign

subscriptions definitely slowing down so

at a slower pace and that's why they're

slowing guide i think documents still a

great company you've gotta you've got a

um a covert play inside there though

right as cove it goes away the whole

stay-at-home thing goes away we're gonna

expect more coved uh stay-at-home

traders to actually get out of docusign

and into other stocks so that's what i

expect to be happening here but again uh

even at uh at 160 uh it's still an

expensive company you're still paying

probably somewhere around 40 times

forward let me actually just look at the

financial analysis again here

40 to 50 times might be closer to 50

times so we're kind of combining this

stream with or this video here with

multiple different updates but that's

fine i think that's what you all

appreciate anyway so we're looking at uh

eps of about 355 in 2025 nice compounded

annual growth between 43

25 to 43

expected

we are expecting profitability this year

which would be great

so that'll be a very big rotation for

docusign and a 355

on a 160 valuation for the stock that's

about a 45 forward pe

with the growth rate they have it's not

terrible not terrible at all it's

certainly between a one and a two

depending on which year you're comparing

to for growth if you're comparing to uh

2025 compounded annual growth about

24 25 let's go with 24. that's going to

put you at a peg ratio of about 1.8

definitely on the expensive side but uh

boy oh boy that one that seems like a

potential oversell right there down to

166 right now uh wouldn't be surprised

if he keeps selling off the more cnbc

keeps bagging on it but that's okay

you buy the dip when there is blood in

the streets so again it might make sense

to wait though until tomorrow morning to

go crazy on docusign specifically

because

of the uh the catalyst that we have

expiring tomorrow so pay attention to

those catalysts tomorrow they're going

to be big we're going to get the jobs

numbers coming in at 5 30 a.m pacific

time and that's 8 30 a.m eastern time

and the budget regarding whether or not

we'll have a government shutdown or not

we should know within the next 36 hours

on that one i expect the senate will

pass something last minute tomorrow then

we'll get the headlines you know

budget uh government shutdown averted

blah blah blah blah anyway uh bullish

a i'm glad i raised a lot of cash

because we're seeing a lot of pain and i

like shopping when there's pain all

right folks thank you so much for

watching this video we'll see in the

next one check out the program's link

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coupon code expiring tomorrow all right

folks thanks so much bye