wtf

oh my gosh the market is on fire and

we're going to talk about the market but

first I have to apologize because I

screwed up

I didn't do a meet Kevin report this

morning I had to meet Kevin report

scheduled and I woke up at 3 50 to do it

but I couldn't do it I couldn't do it

I couldn't do it because um

this is somewhat embarrassing and this

rarely happens it happened yesterday I

think it's out of our systems but um

basically uh we we uh we we in the staff

uh may have set up a LAN party and had

like a 14-hour rest raid

so in other words uh I got like zero

sleep until about like 3 A.M and then

I'm like cool I'm gonna get like 45

minutes of sleep and I'm like no problem

we could do it so

I'm up at like 350 and I'm staring at my

two coffees and I'm like

so uh pce comes out soon let's look at

the forecast

[Laughter]

this rarely happens it happened and I

apologize

um yeah

so anyway let's now uh but hey that you

know what I think it was good it was uh

our entire team uh it's kind of cool you

know because we we we basically just

took the office and turned it into a LAN

party I think once in a while that's

healthy that's good uh too often it's a

problem but once in a while you know

pizza and then smoothies afterwards and

land that's fun uh and this was fun this

was really fun so I really enjoyed it

but I do apologize to the viewers

uh and uh now now we got to get back to

hard work so uh with that said uh I just

came from a

93-minute course member live stream

we're gonna talk about some of these

things but uh in that we went through a

detailed analysis on companies that are

running today like your C3 AI your

uipath we talk Google we talked Asics we

talked Tesla chiplets we talked I mean

everything servers AI uh what the he

double hockey sticks is going on in the

market you know everybody's already

heard the news about the Tesla Ford

partnership that's great uh and I think

there'll be more of that I think that

the big hidden thing about Tesla that is

probably not being prioritized by Elon

right now I actually think that if Elon

were less this is an example of where I

think yes Elon is distracted by Twitter

but I think if Elon were less focused on

Twitter he would see this opportunity

there's a massive opportunity in

potentially using Dojo their their uh

basically custom made server stack for

AI compute renting out basically their

server for AI compute and making servers

like and then competing with your not

only Amazon and Google and Microsoft

server Stacks but also making the actual

chip that would be a vertically

integrated data center a game changer

for Tesla because it would be a

completely new vertical that people

would have to price in a completely new

vertical so dear Elon Musk if there's

one thing to consider doing right now it

would be creating a vertically

integrated server stack specifically for

AI

use the Tesla Dojo that side of the

business even if you have to fundraise

for it will sell fund the stock market

will give you the money you need to do

that so please if you think Dojo is as

powerful as you all suggested on AI day

even though you all are for some reason

I don't know maybe somebody can explain

it to me using seven nanometer chips

produced uh will manufacture by tsmc

you're designing these triplets yourself

which is great you're not even operating

these AI servers Dojo on gpus which are

extremely expensive you're running them

on your own triplets

which is awesome and so why not make a

chiplet AI Data Center

you you say you're an AI company right

and suggests that FSD is just totally

undervalued by the market well let's

double and triple down on it so I don't

know maybe maybe nobody's suggested that

but there's a real possibility that

creating this sort of server stack uh

could could be a multi-hundred billion

dollar

market cap opportunity for Tesla and a

massive Revenue driver because now if

you can I mean think about this a Nvidia

h100 costs you thirty thousand dollars

and we talked about this a little bit in

uh the course member law actually we

talked about it a lot uh but we were

comparing Asics and gpus and CPUs and

stuff but so so quickly going to some of

these notes from the course member live

which remember you get lifetime access

to just join any one of the programs

linked down below you'd want to do that

before uh June 1st because we're

releasing the course uh the AI stuff

then and then the price will go up again

but anyway one of the things we were

talking about was was some of the

differences between gpus and A6 and that

don't worry so much about that what you

more want to worry about is that your

typical AI server right now looks

something like this or maybe you have

two CPUs which are think of it as like

the brain of the server uh and then your

workhorses like your Motors or the gpus

and the gpus right now the the

winner the fastest most efficient four

nanometer chip right now is your Nvidia

h100 that's these guys and you spent

about 30 grand on each of these if you

have 10 that means you're spending 300

Grand on these GPU stacks and on these

CPUs you're spending maybe 15 grand so

you're out spending uh via gpus on a 20

to 1 ratio your AMD CPUs now we do know

that AMD also makes gpus we know that

obviously from the PC gaming side but

their server gpus are

they don't hold the candle to the h100

so let's just put it that way so we know

that we talked about that already before

and plenty of other videos and we've

looked at sort of the cost differential

between uh the the time-based usage of

these

but more important is that and this is

more Market broad important uh you know

we'll move on from Tesla because I do

think there's a huge opportunity here

for Tesla and Dojo with with their

custom server stack right I think Dojo

if you looked at it would look a lot

more like you'd have uh your your brain

uh your your brain up here and then

under that you'd actually have endless

interconnected they call them chiplets

to do uh tasks

and if these can be as flexible as gpus

uh which that could be a probable

downside for Tesla is if they're not

flexible like gpus and they're not

programmable given that Nvidia has the

Cuda moat then perhaps that's where the

downside is and perhaps that's why Tesla

can't pull this off with the chiplets

maybe they don't have the flexibility

maybe they're good for FSD data but not

everything else right so that would be

your big downside maybe I don't know but

maybe they are flexible maybe somebody

can Enlighten us on that in the comments

with that said though so Tesla out of

the way with that said obviously ai's is

driving the market today it's driving

the market so much so that you're

actually seeing oh we're back to the

Blackboard why would we be back here

well it's because of this word nobody

likes

bills and I'll tell you if you want

bills buy a plane because I just did and

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now back to the content another rate

hike being priced in

now this is fascinating because if you

look at the five-year Break Even rate

it's at 2.18 it's near lows and it's

really stopped Rising if you look at the

news that came out this morning on the

University of Michigan consumer

sentiment report

phenomenal why was it phenomenal because

the expectation was we were still going

to have that de-anchoring of inflation

expectations that we were going to get

four and a half percent on the one year

out inflation Horizon what do we got we

got 4.2 we're going back which is a sign

that you had this temporary surge of

inflation fears because of uh the energy

cycle of April the sort of rebound that

we got uh and even into may this uh year

over year oh my gosh Pepsi raised prices

nonsense which we've already broken down

many times most of those price increases

happen in the first half of last year

not the first half of this year that

means the pricing power is really fading

uh and and the true pricing power will

come from what I've been banging the

table on which is innovation and chips

software was tough we'll talk about

software in a moment c3i I'll give you a

little note on these uh but think about

this for a moment University of Michigan

good

so great on inflation expectations still

anchored five-year break-even

expectations anchored

pce just like the last CPI came in one

tenth hot on uh core month over month at

0.4 and uh month over month headline at

0.4 as well 4.8 obviously well above two

percent we know that

but what's happening is you're just

seeing the economy keep cranking durable

orders coming in at 1.1 instead of the

expectation of negative one percent

companies are spending money again

capital good orders are exploding

capital good orders

uh excluding air and uh uh and then just

looking at non-defensives non-defense

style not like defensive style stocks

like not military and not air Aerospace

what did those capital good orders do

machinery like cnc's like lithography

machines for chips what did they do

survey says negative point one actual

says 1.4

we're seeing companies spend

because they realize we're not going

into a deep dark recession instead you

need to spend money to invest in your

company

so that going forward

you don't get left behind

in a weird way and we talked about this

in yesterday's course member live stream

I actually think there's this this

likelihood of seeing and I know it

sounds crazy but seeing companies hire

more people in the short term

and then refine in the future that's

because companies don't want to get left

behind on this Nike Swoosh recovery of

this next decade

it's real

yeah look is there still a possibility

of going into a recession maybe but with

all this new AI spend

business investment is not going

anywhere anywhere but up business

investment is going up the consumer is

still strong the data we're getting does

not say recession it does not say the

FED has over tightened so the FED has a

choice do they go for pause on inflation

because inflation is trending down and

risk it reinflating or do they go for

another 25 BP hike well

so far it looks like the market is

pricing in now today it flip-flopped

another 25 basis point hike in fact uh

we're at about a 67 chance of a 25 basis

point hike

in uh June and now here's what's crazy

if the Federal Reserve chooses not to

hike because Jerome Powell said hey

we're we're sufficiently restrictive

we're good you know we'll be data

dependent but we've reached the level of

being sufficiently restrictive If the

Fed pauses when the market is actually

expecting a hike

you know what emoji symbol that's going

to look like

rocket ship

and if you're a short seller you you

best beware now if the Market's pricing

in at 25 BP hike and we get a 25 BP hike

nobody cares

no obviously the market is trending up

also not just because of AI but because

of this debt ceiling stuff like we

talked about yesterday Republicans

focusing on hey let's just let's just

cut spending for the IRS rather than

cutting snap food program benefits or

worker requirements well duh everybody

can get behind that who in their right

mind what American is going to say

yeah uh would you rather cut money from

poor people who need to get a leg up

even if there's abuse in the system even

though they're entitlements would you

rather cut money from poor people who

are just trying to eat and put food on

the table and get a what you know get a

leg up on the crappy situation that they

might be in probably all right I don't

know what the situation is but would you

rather cut money from them

or would you rather say hey uh let's

take a little bit of money from the IRS

back come on man then everybody hates

the IRS because they take your money now

those are the that's what we sign up for

that's okay you can't be bitter about

the IRS I was super bitter because my

biggest earning year ever uh maybe one

day in the future we could repeat that

but obviously that's that's not now my

biggest earning year ever 2021 I paid

like 55 in taxes it was insane uh it was

like 11.7 million dollars of taxes gone

and so then it's like

oh my God that's a lot of money so

um anywho so so obviously I think that

would be uh uh popular to to uh limit

what you would see from uh from from

this debt ceiling negotiation and some

of the drama where if everybody can get

behind this idea of okay let's let's

give some of this money away from from

the IRS and it's a popular thing boom

all of a sudden debt ceiling done now

there's talk about kicking the debt

ceiling down the road for two years

which means you don't even have to worry

about it during the presidential

election which means you're kicking the

can down the road to 2025 which would be

good because you don't want to go

through this crap again right before an

election cycle because it probably

lowers voter turnout and makes people

become even more disenfranchised with

political system so okay debt ceiling

talk over Tesla talk over now what about

all these software companies going to oh

yeah and of course the FED talk over uh

yeah do keep in mind I always like

paying attention to also what's going on

uh with the FED uh and uh and and

specifically your treasure yields so

we're gonna talk about treasury yields

and software next year so let me first

interject treasury yields treasure

yields up because the economy is still

doing well you're at City you're sitting

at 3.8 on the 10-year treasury now what

industry is that most problematic for

Real Estate

even though real estate is still doing

just fine because we have still yet to

see The Surge of inventory still no

summer surge of inventory

it looks like higher for longer is not

affecting the stock market it's going to

affect the real estate market so that'll

create some interesting opportunities uh

which I'm excited about for house hack

now my real estate startup uh but we'll

see so far median sale prices just

ticked up again so you know people don't

seem to stop buying because there's so

little inventory uh you know we're I

mean look look at this active inventory

chart you ready for this this is insane

you look at the Active inventory for

Real Estate look at this your active

inventory is if this continues and we do

not see the surge in inventory let's see

we're at 950 000 uh for 2022 right now

we're at 730. let's say we're at 750 in

two months 750 000 listings divided by

950. inventory would be down 21 that's

why prices are falling I mean they did

fall peaked the trough which was made to

December

but now we still have this uncertainty

of like okay well what happens next well

inventory stays low and price is

basically slowly start Rising again or

inventory starts Rising as rates stay

high and that's your worst case scenario

so there's certainly uncertainty we

could be certain of uncertainty in real

estate

but where's another area that is seeing

a lot of sort of almost spack-like

Euphoria which in my opinion uh is is uh

somewhat ludicrous some of it where are

we seeing some of this spack-like

Euphoria again

well in my opinion it's companies like

c3ai now uipath has a substantially

better fundamentals than uh uh C3 AI but

both of these companies especially

specifically a uipath uipath grade

financials guiding flat revenue for a

growth and SAS company nobody wants to

hear flat Revenue

the problem is we do not know

who which software companies are going

to be the absolute beneficiaries of AI

but we do know is that the winners of AI

are going to start with

uh the users the businesses and the end

users

we know servers will win we know

manufacturers of server equipment will

win so you know going down the chain we

know every business that uses AI wins

any business that doesn't use AI will

get left behind

literally why I have this coming out

right how to be more productive yourself

as an employee an entrepreneur doesn't

matter with how to make more money and

get [ __ ] done faster course

check that out join uh by uh June 1st

because that's when we're doing our

lecture drop and I'd love for you to be

part of that uh it's it's going to be

incredible and we'll learn productivity

in Ai and we'll consistently update it

as well and you get access to the course

member live streams where you get this

incredible Deep dive analysis remember

we had 93 minutes this morning on on

debating and talking and and and

researching it's really phenomenal but

anyway

and that's like every day the Market's

open too uh usually not that long though

today was a little extended but anyway

so

c3a okay so we know that businesses and

users will win from AI anybody who

doesn't use AI will lose

we don't know which software companies

will win though we think it'll probably

be companies like Cloud providers like

Google and AWS and Microsoft

the downside is how much of their

businesses are actually going to get

hurt by AI at the same time as benefit

from AI like Google search Google search

and network placements like 69 of their

revenue well 69 of the revenue drops at

10 a year

that's five billion dollars a year of

Revenue that's going away

and even if you go from one billion

dollars to two billion dollars of just

AI ad Revenue great you're up one down

five you're net down four that bleeds

Google's revenue now I would never bet

against Google as a user but as an

investor

I I'm nervous because I don't know how

that Revenue bleed is going to look the

company's done great though over the

past few uh weeks here because of AI and

obviously it would take years to see

that bleed so short-term bullish

long-term bearish Maybe

okay so now we look at

um and then of course you have your

nvidias your amds your Taiwan

semiconductors these are phenomenal

make sure when you're doing fundamental

analysis on tsmc you understand that ADR

shares the ones we invest in in America

are five times as valuable as the

Chinese listed shares keep that in mind

otherwise your numbers will look real

funky anyway

so then you look at you know the

software stacks and the reality is most

users and businesses are just going to

flip-flop to whatever business provides

the best AI product and now that it

costs basically nothing to start an AI

business How Could You Bet on software

any individual software company

when tomorrow there could just be a

better software company

all of them will use the data centers

the servers the chips

and all the users and businesses will

win but the one segment that is most at

risk is the software stack

so that does make me very nervous

uh for the software stack and so when I

see this sort of like Euphoria and some

of the stocks it's like hey it's fine

that's fine Rising tide lifts All Ships

no problem plenty of my stocks are

absolutely phenomenally with the

exception like end face which is stuck

in the hole which is probably honestly

because of that uncertainty in the real

estate market because if you think about

it

rates are high and they're going up

you're at a all-time high for mortgage

rates this year and that makes it harder

to borrow for for these sort of

investments into your home

uh and then of course you still have

uncertainty over where the real estate

Market's going to go

so

let's put all these pieces of the puzzle

together well understanding the pieces

of the puzzle we are clearly in a

situation where we might entirely avoid

a recession because of artificial

intelligence and it's not just because

oh my gosh it's chat GPT it's because of

the business Investments

just a few weeks ago I reported a uh on

a Goldman Sachs piece that suggested we

would go into a recession not because of

consumer spend because that's resilient

and actually strengthening we would go

into a business-led recession because

businesses would spend less on capex

because rates are so much higher for

businesses businesses are the ones who

pay interest rates like that yeah well

now with AI businesses will be like we

can't afford not to keep investing even

if rates are higher

okay interesting so literally

uh anyway so

so this sets up a fascinating potential

of entirely avoiding a recession but not

just avoiding a recession

having a disinflationary GDP boom

disinflationary because we're past the

coveted money printing but also because

AI is disinflationary by the nature of

it it's actually deflationary it makes

companies more productive and it allows

GDP to expand in a non-inflationary way

it's the best case scenario it's

literally like if you could have if you

could have in 2021 in November of 2021

given the market a magic pill an

antidote to high inflation and

stagflation

you would have created something that

would have let GDP expand rapidly

in a way that massively increases

productivity and does not cause

inflation

quite literally that is what AI is

it's mind-blowing

now I understand there are a lot of

people who still believe that this all

this AI stuff is just hype that's fine

look at business cap X Investments over

the next nine months they're going to

explode

they're going to explode because

businesses cannot afford to be left

behind and they realize this is not a

metaverse where you're buying virtual

real estate or some garbage

this is actual

at every person's desk more productivity

every employee becomes more productive

because of this

it's mind-blowing

so uh that said this is fantastic news

for the Nike Swoosh recovery this is

fantastic news for potentially avoiding

recession uh and quite frankly the

market might look at another Fed rate I

can go bring it on is that all you got

I mean look at the NASDAQ

we have now retraced

quite well we've we bounced off the

floor 253

we had some uncertainty around inflation

and Paul volcker leading us to 289. we

got rejected by 311 and once we finally

broke 311 we went straight through the

330 resistance didn't even stop now

we're getting rejected at 3 48.

which is literally where the QQQ is

sitting right now the downtrend is

clearly over and now you're clearly on a

downtrend uptrend in fact you actually

just broke the uptrend which is insane

uh let's modify the uptrend slightly

here uh to align no you'd want to kind

of keep it here

yeah no I'm just gonna extend it is what

I'm gonna do so is it possible that we

retrace on the NASDAQ back to a 330

maybe on on a hot inflation report for

for uh May yeah

uh that would be potentially your fall

down to about a 330 right but yeah this

is this is absolutely a remarkable time

uh and so we'll see so I suppose in

conclusion

uh Tesla if their chipsets are adaptable

they should be considering getting into

the server space potentially if they can

do it

cheaper and more effectively with their

dojo

or if it's not adaptable then forget

about it just use it for your own Ai and

autonomy

and hopefully more Brands wake up to

Tesla and Tesla becomes like an apple

carplay

for charging and for full self driving

the full self-driving is already

extremely good

and you really can't have an opinion of

Tesla full self-driving unless you've

used Tesla full self-driving

okay

that's one two be cautious of software

three

probably be bullish on AI and what it

means for the economy and potentially

avoiding a recession

great uh and then uh last

don't worry about the debt ceiling and

instead

ask yourself why have you not joined

these programs you know somebody left me

a a comment the other day like oh I

haven't joined yet because I don't care

about real estate

there's a stocks in psychology of money

group

there's a how to make more money

entrepreneur and individual worker

productivity course because remember

there's investing and then there's

making more money those are two

different things investing we have

stocks and Psych yes and there is a zero

to millionaire real estate course which

is different in a property management

course which is different which includes

rental Renovations and recommendations

and product recommendations of that all

of them include access to the course

member live streams

but then you've got the how to make more

money of course of course as well so

check all these out uh really excited to

share all the content and you get the

full Archive of all of course my live

streams just make sure you join before

June 1st okay folks thank you so much

for being here and we'll see you next

one good luck out there now I want you

to know this when it comes to AI

time is what's going to make you money

and if you can prove that value to an

employer you'll always be able to be

employed so this is another way of

making sure that you don't get replaced

foreign