TRANSCRIPTEnglish

WARNING: Trump JUST Said the Quiet Part Outloud.

33m 41s6,368 words898 segmentsEnglish

FULL TRANSCRIPT

0:00

Well, the Federal Reserve and the White

0:01

House together are now saying the quiet

0:04

part out loud. This is Mr. Myin, the

0:07

shill who also still works with the

0:10

White House, which is very odd to have

0:12

somebody working in the administration,

0:15

also working at the Federal Reserve.

0:18

Now, I like him, so don't take me don't

0:20

get me wrong by me calling him a shill,

0:21

but let's be real, he's there to, you

0:23

know, tell you exactly what's on Trump's

0:25

mind. We saw Donald Trump's Truth Social

0:27

post yesterday arguing that inflation

0:30

will take care of itself and we just

0:32

need to keep lowering rates because we

0:34

don't want to kill the rally. Myin and

0:37

Sachs both add fuel to this fire. And so

0:41

they're saying the quiet part out loud.

0:42

But what does Myron say about recession?

0:45

Let's start here. This is about a one

0:47

minute clip. Uh this is uh oh it was

0:51

about a one minute clip piece that I

0:53

wanted to show. Myron talks about

0:55

specifically recession and what the

0:59

White House and the Fed's job is when it

1:02

comes to recession. So, we're going to

1:03

jump to that segment if I can find it

1:05

here. Okay, here we go. Uh, it is about

1:09

2 minutes into the segment and let's

1:11

listen to this and we'll springboard

1:13

from there after about a minute of myin

1:16

>> and I think it's somewhat problematic if

1:18

you see those data coming out and you

1:19

don't adjust your policy prescriptions

1:21

in a dovish direction. What does that

1:22

say about the reactiveness of policy to

1:24

the economy? It, you know, I think it

1:25

looks very, it reflects very poorly upon

1:27

the institution.

1:28

>> At the end of that speech at Colombia,

1:29

you nodded to the fact that uh

1:31

recessions are inevitable. Fed's job is

1:33

to kind of forstall them as much as as

1:34

they can. Policy makers jobs are that

1:36

I'm I'm very curious when you look at

1:38

the labor market in particular, the rise

1:39

that we've seen in the unemployment

1:41

rate, that's kind of rise we've seen

1:42

customarily before recessions. How do

1:44

you assess the the risk of there being a

1:46

recession here in the near term when you

1:48

look at the labor market for instance?

1:50

By the way, I love the quote right there

1:51

and I think that's a really important

1:53

quote that you want to think about. You

1:55

said at the end of your speech that the

1:57

job of the Fed is to forstall a

2:00

recession. Mind you, that aligns exactly

2:02

with Donald Trump. Why kill the rally

2:04

now? And it aligns perfectly with what

2:08

David Sachs is saying of, "Oh, AI is

2:11

actually creating jobs. It's not

2:13

destroying jobs." The whole narrative is

2:16

to make sure that we can keep pumping

2:19

stocks and that's actually bullish in

2:22

the short term because it's exactly

2:23

what's happening. You've got Oracle CDS

2:26

is coming down. So, you've got some fear

2:28

finally coming out of that Oracle uh you

2:31

know credit default swap market

2:32

suggesting maybe we're starting to see

2:35

some calming. Hopefully that continues.

2:38

My bet and what we've been talking about

2:39

in the alpha report and the course

2:41

member live streams which you can join

2:42

mbke.com uh and get lifetime access for

2:45

my bet is that we just continue to slow

2:47

schlog until January 9th. That's what we

2:50

said this morning. We're like, hey,

2:52

there's no reason the slow schlog

2:53

doesn't continue. And when you've got

2:55

now members of the Fed, Dave Sachs, and

2:59

Trump all pushing for why kill the

3:01

rally, keep bailing out the market, just

3:03

kick the can down the road of recession.

3:05

You don't really have bearish near-term

3:07

catalysts, obviously, until the labor

3:09

market actually rolls off a cliff, but

3:11

that hasn't started yet. Let's listen to

3:13

Byron here, though.

3:15

>> I don't see a recession in the near-

3:16

term in part because we are adjusting

3:18

our policy rate uh by lowering it, which

3:21

is appropriate.

3:22

>> In other words, no recession because

3:24

we're cutting. So, we got to keep going.

3:27

Okay. uh you know my view as I've as

3:29

I've described is that a v a a variety

3:31

of shocks that hit the economy you know

3:33

including changes to the population

3:35

growth rate due to changes in the border

3:36

policy have pushed what we call the

3:38

neutral rate down and that policy needs

3:40

to adjust downward to reflect that

3:41

downward shift in neutral if we don't

3:44

adjust policy down then I think that we

3:46

do run risks of rising recess of rising

3:48

recessions I

3:50

>> this is essentially saying if we now

3:52

stay uh you know frozen at this interest

3:55

rate then we start increasing ing the

3:57

risk of a recession. So, what's that

3:59

quiet part? The quiet part is, hey,

4:01

let's do whatever we can to keep the

4:03

economy propped up, which again, bullish

4:05

short-term, but at some point the price

4:07

gets paid. Now, we'll talk about open AI

4:10

in just a moment, especially following

4:12

up on David Sax's jobs argument, but

4:15

let's listen to a little bit more of

4:16

Myron here.

4:18

>> Don't think it's too late to prevent

4:19

that. And so I think it's important that

4:21

we keep on adjusting our policy rate

4:23

down, but at the moment it's not my base

4:24

case in part because I think that we

4:26

ultimately will end up adjust continuing

4:28

to adjust interest rates down.

4:29

>> What else?

4:30

>> Ultimately will end up. So in other

4:32

words, Myron's base case is hey you

4:34

might have people at the Fed who say ah

4:37

we don't need to cut right now. But his

4:39

base case turns into oh no I'm not

4:41

really worried about it because we'll

4:42

just keep cutting. This is why I think

4:44

by certainly by 2032, this is my belief,

4:47

uh we'll see interest rates back at

4:49

probably the lower bound zero, whether

4:52

there's a shock or recession or we just

4:54

see inflation turn into outright

4:56

deflation. But there's a lot for us to

4:59

break down here. So David Sachs, so

5:01

we've got Donald Trump obviously, why,

5:03

you know, with his truth social post,

5:04

why kill the rally? Just keep cutting

5:06

rates. Inflation will take care of

5:07

itself. Meer say we need to forstall a

5:10

recession as long as possible. let's

5:11

just keep cutting so that you know we

5:13

can kick that can down the road even

5:15

though we know recessions eventually

5:16

will happen. Okay, it wouldn't surprise

5:19

me at all that people in the Trump

5:21

administration believe, hey, if we could

5:23

just kick the can of recession down to

5:25

like 2029, let's do that because why

5:29

have the blood on our hands? On one

5:32

hand, you kind of can't blame it, but on

5:34

the other hand, you also can't help but

5:36

look and say like, hm, do we like not

5:39

that we trusted the data before, but how

5:41

much can we really trust some of the

5:43

blatant rigging that's happening right

5:44

now in the data? For example, missing

5:46

CPI. I mean, how much of the CPI report

5:48

was missing and all of a sudden we're

5:50

supposed to believe that we're cheering

5:51

this incredible CPI report and how much

5:54

of the jobs data was missing? Anyway,

5:56

this is where, you know, Powell is, I

5:58

think, right to say, remember the pace

6:00

we're on. If they're telling us 40k jobs

6:03

created, which we just had a weekly data

6:05

set yesterday that came out from ADP

6:07

that said we're growing at about 11,500

6:09

jobs uh per week, which is roughly align

6:12

with a little over 40,000, then we're

6:14

actually at -20K. So we're actually

6:16

shrinking and Powell made it very clear

6:19

in his last presser that that would be

6:20

quote well below the break even level.

6:23

And so in other words, the labor market

6:25

side is deteriorating. But how does that

6:28

then reconcile with this sort of like no

6:30

no no man keep breathing life into the

6:33

bubble from David Sachs? Because David

6:36

Saxs, you know, says AI job loss hoax

6:39

exposed. And this is very classic

6:41

Twitter X. This is like people leave me

6:44

these comments because Kevin, why can't

6:46

you just do your videos in like 2

6:48

minutes? Why are your videos always so

6:51

long? You know, this is like that same

6:53

like loser mentality that just wants to

6:56

scroll on X and like get their little

6:58

zingers or whatever and you lose all the

7:00

perspective. Uh, which I think is very

7:02

important. So, let me show you in a

7:04

summarried way how you could break this

7:06

down. So, David Sax says, according to a

7:08

new study from Vanguard, occupations

7:10

most exposed to AI are outperforming the

7:13

rest of the labor market in terms of job

7:14

growth and real wages. So,

7:16

[clears throat] let's just take this at

7:18

face value for a moment. First of all, I

7:20

wouldn't call this a study. This is more

7:22

of a report. I'm actually going to show

7:23

you the report in just a moment. But

7:25

let's just take this at face value and

7:26

say, okay, occupations most exposed to

7:29

AI more jobs. Okay, so we simplify that.

7:32

So first of all, what are occupations uh

7:35

exposed or or you know with with AI

7:37

exposure? There are going to be things

7:40

in uh according to at least the Philly

7:42

Fed, there are going to be things uh

7:44

like middle management, upper

7:46

management, uh accounting, customer

7:49

service, uh lawyer work, you know,

7:52

basically anything in in the finance

7:54

space, and they've got a whole sheet of

7:56

this, which I think is very interesting.

7:57

Look at this. You have to look at this

7:59

AI exposure piece right here. And they

8:01

take the top 30% of these rankings and

8:04

say those are going to be the most

8:05

exposed. office clerks, customer service

8:07

secretaries, frontline supervisors,

8:09

accountants, auditors, receptionists, uh

8:11

sales representatives, uh lawyers are in

8:14

here, HR, market research, uh you know,

8:17

computer systems managers, analysts,

8:21

whatever, insurance, compliance, of

8:24

course. Okay, so but there's something

8:26

that all of these have in common when it

8:28

comes to jobs. And so Dave Saxs

8:31

references this piece right here. He

8:34

argues that see look we actually have

8:37

more jobs being created after the GPT

8:40

moment than before. And basically what

8:43

Vanguard did is in their report they

8:45

analyzed okay well what was the job

8:48

trend between 2015

8:52

and 2019. That is a 5-year period

8:55

they're calling the precoid trend. 15 16

8:58

17 18 19 5-year period. Postcoid they're

9:01

only measuring from the second quarter

9:03

of 2023. So the GPT moment to the second

9:06

quarter of 2025.

9:08

So you know through call it June 30th of

9:12

2025. And so what we did is we looked at

9:14

the S&P 500, not even the NASDAQ. It'd

9:17

be even nastier if you did this with the

9:18

NASDAQ. This is just the S&P 500. And I

9:21

think this is really important because

9:22

if it is true, which we'll believe it,

9:25

that there's job growth occurring in the

9:27

AI exposed sectors, you got to ask

9:29

yourself anything that's been labeled

9:31

AI, like even loser companies like C3

9:34

AI, just because it has the ticker

9:36

symbol AI, they've been doing really

9:37

well. Well, I don't know. I haven't

9:39

looked at the C3 AI stock, but anything

9:41

labeling AI has gone through at least

9:43

some period of a boom over the last few

9:44

years. And the boom in stock market

9:47

wealth in my opinion creates and enables

9:49

the opportunity to hire

9:52

which I evidence this by looking at how

9:55

rapidly the market has grown compared to

9:57

precoid. So look at this in the 5 years

10:00

precoid you had a 59% growth in the S&P

10:03

500 over those 5 years. So you know what

10:06

is that on average like 10 10 11ish% or

10:08

whatever compounded who cares right? But

10:11

look at this. In the two years from the

10:13

GPT moment, the S&P 500 is up 52%.

10:17

So, you've actually had the market

10:19

accelerate or or move what is that two

10:23

and a half times faster. So, we've

10:25

generated wealth in the stock market two

10:27

and a half times faster

10:30

starting at that uh AI moment than in

10:32

the pre-COVID market. And so, in my

10:35

opinion, what a surprise. companies that

10:38

would potentially have AI exposure see

10:41

their stock wealth go up and therefore

10:43

they hire more. I don't necessarily

10:45

think that you can argue that AI is

10:48

creating jobs. I think logically that's

10:51

a fallacy and I don't think that nuance

10:54

you could really get from David Sax's

10:55

post. Now the Philly Fed actually gives

10:58

a little bit of nuance. See the Philly

11:01

Fed here they go in to say this. It's

11:04

also they don't mention the stock market

11:06

either. That's my opinion. My opinion is

11:08

the stock market has a lot to do with

11:09

the hiring. And if the stock market goes

11:11

into a weaker period, that's when you

11:12

actually see the hiring cliff. That's

11:14

why we haven't seen the massive layoffs

11:15

yet because the stock market keeps

11:17

getting pumped up. So, it's kind of

11:18

circular, right? Stock market pumped up,

11:20

hiring stays up, stock market pump up,

11:23

hiring stays up. It's circular until

11:26

something breaks, which is good. That's

11:28

bullish in the near term, right? It just

11:30

does mean the risks are growing. And

11:32

we'll talk about those risks with OpenAI

11:34

in just a moment. But take a look at

11:35

this. It's [clears throat] helpful to

11:36

keep in mind that AI exposure does not

11:40

necessarily mean susceptibility to job

11:42

loss. As we discussed earlier, there are

11:44

several factors that will determine the

11:45

labor market outcomes by occupation,

11:47

such as expertise requirements or the

11:51

ability to substitute workers uh with

11:53

AI. They make the argument that if you

11:55

can fully substitute a worker with AI,

11:57

you're definitely going to see job loss.

11:59

There's no question of that. But if it's

12:02

more of a productivity enhancer, great.

12:04

Then you're not going to see job loss in

12:07

those sectors, fine. I that's why I

12:10

personally throw in the stock market.

12:13

And I say that's probably the biggest

12:15

guide for the labor market. This, by the

12:17

way, is the citation for that. So they

12:19

say that, which is also an irony that

12:22

kind of leads us into the open AI piece,

12:24

but watch this. They say that highly

12:26

exposed AI sectors experienced increases

12:28

in employment and wages following GPT's

12:30

instru

12:33

which AI could directly substitute human

12:35

labor saw declines. That's per one

12:37

particular study. Okay, fine. This again

12:40

could be because of the stock market,

12:42

but somebody hasn't done a study on

12:43

that. That's just sort of my like I'm

12:46

trying to understand or rationalize like

12:48

why could this be? Hm. Stock market

12:50

wealth effect could be a really good

12:52

reason. I think we could probably all

12:53

agree on that. But this is very

12:55

interesting because they do then you

12:57

like beg this question that if AI only

13:01

kills jobs when it's good enough to do

13:03

the full job, then is the current level

13:06

of AI overhyped, right? Because if it's

13:09

only killing some jobs because it's not

13:11

good enough to kill more jobs, then have

13:13

we overhyped Sam Oldman? And that's

13:16

where things get really interesting. I

13:18

wrote a few things down. You can get

13:20

this for free over at the Meet Kevin

13:21

app. So, I'll show you this. I wrote a

13:23

few things down about OpenAI uh and

13:26

their desire to to start running ads.

13:30

And I thought this was interesting

13:31

because I see that is really risky. If

13:33

you run ads, you might kill user trust.

13:36

And the thing is they realized that as

13:39

well. But what was remarkable to me was

13:42

that Open AAI expects to make, take a

13:45

look at this, OpenAI expects to make $2

13:49

per year from free users. $2 per year.

13:52

That's it. You know what is that per

13:54

month? Two divided by 30. That's six uh

13:58

wait, hold on, sorry. uh $2 divided by

14:01

12 16 se 16 to 17 cents uh per user per

14:06

month on um uh on on uh you know

14:11

non-paying users. And I find this really

14:14

remarkable because it means that your

14:16

$200 a month client who might have been

14:18

an early AI adopter probably really

14:20

propped up the AI uh you know initial

14:24

revenue projections. And I wouldn't be

14:26

surprised if now you're seeing OpenAI

14:28

panic a little bit because you're not

14:30

seeing those $200 a month users anymore.

14:33

So now they're like, "All right, let's

14:34

start making projections assuming that

14:36

we're going to make $2 per user off

14:38

non-paying users via ads." But then the

14:41

question is, what happens when LLMs are

14:44

essentially ubiquitous? Now the ads are

14:47

everywhere. That revenue per user could

14:49

actually decline. In fact, if we look at

14:52

their projections, they projected uh

14:54

this summer that they would make around

14:56

$110 billion in revenue from non-paying

14:59

users through 2030.

15:03

Problem with this is when we did the

15:04

math on this, 110 billion divided by the

15:08

next 5 years suggests that on average

15:11

per year, if you assume 700 million

15:14

users, they're forecasting $31 a year.

15:18

So on in one breath, they're expecting

15:21

roughly $31 per year from a user on

15:24

average every year for the next 5 years,

15:27

which is crazy because that would be 31

15:29

31 31 31 and 31. But now insiders are

15:33

actually saying they're actually

15:35

thinking they're only going to end up

15:37

getting $2 a year and then maybe $4 a

15:40

year, $6 a year, $7 a year, all the way

15:42

up to $15 a year by 2030. So to me that

15:45

makes me nervous that the projections

15:46

are way way off and I don't think any of

15:49

us really needed more uh sort of like oh

15:54

Sam Alman is scam altman insight but

15:57

that is a little nerve-wracking. Another

15:59

thing that was a little nerve-wracking

16:01

but I think we kind of knew this already

16:03

is the information did this really

16:04

interesting report where they they

16:05

looked at these Hong Kong IPOs that are

16:08

coming up. Uh, and so because they're

16:10

going public, they broke open their

16:11

financials for uh, their LLMs. And they

16:14

looked at the Miniax IPO coming up in in

16:16

Hong Kong, they said the company's got

16:18

just 15 months of cash left and that

16:21

there are two different margin profiles

16:23

that these companies have. And this I

16:25

thought was really fascinating. So they

16:27

make the argument that on general

16:30

chatbot crap, which is the vast majority

16:33

of yapping that people do with chat

16:35

bots, the general chatbot stuff, these

16:37

companies are making about a 4.7% gross

16:40

margin, which is like almost at grocery

16:43

store levels of horrible margins. You

16:45

know, grocery stores are famous for

16:47

having like, you know, 2% net margins,

16:50

so like, you know, nominal gross margins

16:52

as well. Uh 4.7% gross is pretty bad.

16:55

That's that's like a grocery store level

16:57

margin. And it makes sense because it's

16:59

like, you know, there's you you want to

17:01

go buy your box of cereal at Publix,

17:04

Wind Dixie, Ralph's, Vans, Albertson's,

17:07

you know, whatever. There's there are no

17:09

margins in these businesses because

17:11

nobody cares. It's the same thing as an

17:12

LLM. You can almost say that an LLM is

17:14

literally like a grocery store. Like,

17:16

who's got the circular for the cheapest

17:18

grapes this week? That's where we're

17:20

going to go buy the grapes. I Yeah, I

17:21

used to do that back in like 2009. would

17:24

be like, "Who's got the cheapest

17:25

grapes?" But anyway, it's like there's

17:27

no brand loyalty. Who freaking cares?

17:29

So, where can you get the cheapest

17:31

outcome? So, the LLM side, 4.7% gross

17:34

margin on that Hong Kong side. Very

17:36

interesting insight because it really

17:37

suggests there's no pricing power there.

17:40

But we already knew that. This is why

17:41

Google is basically just including these

17:43

in Workspace, right, for for their

17:45

Workspace users. Now, in specific

17:47

software solutions, they indicate that

17:49

gross margins are 69%.

17:52

And so to me that was great because it

17:54

indicates that companies like Palanteer

17:56

that do niche down, they can keep

17:58

cranking money. But companies that don't

18:00

niche down and they try to appeal to

18:02

everybody, especially free users, which

18:05

in my opinion are the worst, there's no

18:08

money to be made there. And that's

18:10

actually a really big problem. See, GPT

18:12

wants everybody. They're I think they're

18:15

assuming that they're either going to

18:17

make $31 a month from all these free

18:18

users if you use 700 million as an

18:20

example or they're assuming that their

18:21

revenue or their user growth is going to

18:23

double or triple or something and that's

18:25

how they're going to try to make sense

18:26

of this $110 billion forecast of revenue

18:29

from free users over the next 5 years

18:31

which is cookie dookie in my opinion. uh

18:33

as you saw with the math that we did, it

18:35

it it doesn't line up, right? There's a

18:37

huge problem in that math. And I think

18:39

the big lesson to take away is if you

18:42

want to make money in AI, you niche

18:44

again, whether that's Palunteer or who

18:48

knows, a lot of people are buying our

18:49

reinvest AI product. We're also ending

18:51

our fund raise. I can't I honestly I

18:54

cannot wait to end our fund raise at the

18:55

end of this month. Part of the reason

18:56

for that is I look at this I go why are

18:59

we selling shares for this AI company at

19:02

a real estate company valuation. We need

19:04

to stop b I feel like I shouldn't say

19:06

this but I feel like I'm giving away

19:08

shares right it's like diluting that's

19:10

not good. So it's like we're ending the

19:12

fund raise uh at the uh the the end of

19:14

the year because we're like we have such

19:16

a niche product you know people were

19:18

responding to me in my live stream.

19:19

They're like oh this this is this yes

19:21

like that makes sense. And the pitch is,

19:25

you know, every real estate agent or

19:27

real estate agents who want to pay 2,

19:30

300, 400, 500 bucks, whatever it is,

19:32

depending on how many clients they put

19:33

into our app, can automatically send

19:36

deals and automatically value them based

19:38

on our custom MLS on interior pictures

19:42

and our valuation, like actual real

19:45

valuations in my opinion, based on what

19:47

the condition of the property actually

19:48

is, not just some stupid estimate,

19:51

right? That's really valuable for an

19:53

agent to instantaneously send that to

19:55

their clients. We think those customers

19:56

will pay us three to 500 bucks a month.

20:00

Now, if you do that, it's very Palunteer

20:03

modelesque where the lesson is niching

20:06

down is what makes the money, not the

20:08

general allpurpose customer app. Uh

20:11

anyway, that this is not like a

20:13

solicitation. I'm not saying, you know,

20:14

go buy the reinvest AI or go invest in

20:16

house hack. I'm just saying as an

20:18

example, Palanteer or you could even

20:20

look at a company like UiPath. Uipath is

20:23

an interesting one because they're

20:25

they're basically doing Palunteer's uh

20:28

you know integration of AI in it's

20:32

different obviously they're they're

20:33

different services. I don't want to

20:34

conflate them as the same at all. But in

20:37

finance, compliance and healthcare,

20:40

which I think is one of the best niches

20:42

for AI. In fact, if you look at uh this

20:47

uh Philly Fed piece that we saw, a lot

20:50

of what we saw in the Philly Fed piece

20:52

was that the biggest uh you know uh

20:56

disruption that could happen from AI

20:58

exposed jobs would be in places like

21:00

compliance. Let me see where that list

21:01

was. Compliance. Yeah, here. Compliance

21:04

officers. they had one of the highest

21:05

ratings for potential AI exposure and I

21:08

totally agree with that. Uh so I think

21:10

UiPath and Palanteer to some extent are

21:13

opportunists in this sort of region

21:15

again high margin and this is where that

21:17

GPT issue becomes a problem. So how does

21:20

this all like how do we tile this

21:21

together? On one hand you have my saying

21:24

hey you know we got to keep the Ponzi

21:27

going. We have to forstall a recession.

21:29

and it's going to happen one day, but

21:31

let's kick it down the road to another

21:32

administration. Trump's like, "Don't

21:35

kill the rally. We need the wealth to

21:37

stay propped up." In fairness, the

21:39

wealth staying propped up probablys up

21:41

the hiring, which sort of defeats, in my

21:43

opinion, David Sachs argument because it

21:45

means that the inverse is also going to

21:47

be true. If we go into a down market,

21:49

the job market rolls over and then it's

21:51

even worse because of AI. In which case,

21:53

then David Sachs post will look foolish

21:55

because he didn't account for the wealth

21:57

effect. But that's okay. Hey, that's why

21:59

we're making the video. So, when you

22:02

then combine that with knowing that Sam

22:05

Alman's got this $1.4 trillion peg under

22:09

the AI market, it makes sense why

22:11

companies like Nvidia, which in my

22:14

opinion have a fair value at $300, are

22:16

selling for a discount. They're selling

22:18

at a discount, you know, almost half of

22:20

a discount here. You're at 188 to their

22:22

fair value based on current growth

22:24

estimates. The market is discounting how

22:26

much of a weight Sam Olman has in this

22:29

market.

22:31

So, broadly, I see all of that as short

22:35

to medium-term bullish. Certainly

22:37

bullish between now and January 9th

22:39

because that's when we start getting our

22:40

new catalyst jobs and CPI. As much as

22:42

we'll be able to trust those on the 9th

22:44

and the 13th, I don't see much in the

22:46

way of catalysts or like some kind of

22:48

shoe dropping if you will over the next

22:50

few weeks. But really over the next six

22:52

months, what you want is the job market

22:55

to stay propped up. Like in spite of

22:58

what Trump is saying, you kind of want

22:59

him to be right. You want the stock

23:01

market to stay propped up so businesses

23:02

start hiring again. Get that engine

23:04

going again while the plane has

23:06

altitude, so to speak. It's like you

23:08

lost an engine of the labor market and

23:10

you're gliding. And Trump's like, "Light

23:12

the freaking engine again." And it's

23:13

like, "Well, well, yeah. Uh, light the

23:16

engine because like if we get it lit

23:18

over the next six months, great. We

23:20

start hiring again, great. we can keep

23:21

flying. This is not wrong. Uh but I

23:25

don't think that, you know, making the

23:26

argument that, oh, inflation will take

23:28

care of itself is a very valuable one

23:29

because the lessons of the 70s told us

23:31

that was a mistake. See, Trump in his

23:33

truth social post, he makes this

23:34

argument that oh well, you know,

23:35

inflation will take care of itself and

23:37

if it doesn't, we'll just raise rates

23:38

then. That's what they tried to do in

23:40

the 70s. That didn't work in the 70s

23:42

because as soon as you say we don't care

23:44

about inflation, inflation expectations

23:47

self-fulfill and you actually create the

23:49

very inflation you're trying to fight.

23:51

So Donald Trump's messaging on inflation

23:53

is actually dangerous for inflation. But

23:55

that's okay. He doesn't really care

23:57

about the long term. He just cares

23:59

really about the next 3 years and then

24:01

he'll be out of office.

24:03

So that's where I think there's kind of

24:06

this like if there's a bubble, you've

24:10

got Myin, Sachs, and Trump who are

24:12

basically paid and financially

24:15

incentivized. Mind you, I think them and

24:16

all their cronies will do anything,

24:19

whether it's cheat, rig the data, steal,

24:22

or or whatever, rig whatever they need

24:24

to to make as much money as possible for

24:26

them and their cronies. That's fine. I

24:28

mean, I don't I I don't I'm not

24:30

condoning it. I'm just saying we we

24:31

understand what's going on. I think

24:33

really what it is is if there's a

24:34

bubble, they're just sticking a straw

24:37

into it and blowing it up even bigger.

24:40

And the biggest danger I think starts at

24:44

the commoditized side. And that's where

24:47

I got really interested in in the Nvidia

24:49

Intel piece. You know, Nvidia just

24:51

halted uh pro, you know, their their

24:54

work with Intel's 18A process. That's

24:57

their supposedly like revolutionary uh

25:00

you know new fab process for advanced

25:03

chips. And I think Nvidia only invested

25:06

$5 billion into Intel to shill to Trump

25:09

so they could sell to China. Well, what

25:11

a surprise. What a surprise. They look

25:14

look at this. What a surprise.

25:17

Nvidia invests $5 billion into Intel to

25:20

shield to Trump and says, "Oh yeah,

25:23

yeah, we'll try them out for chips. Hey,

25:25

by the way, can we sell to China? Takes

25:27

months to get that. Now all of a sudden,

25:29

yeah, okay, we'll let you sell, you

25:31

know, Blackwells or or whatever. Uh, you

25:34

know, H200's

25:36

uh to to uh China, which are so not

25:39

Blackwells, but H200s to China, which

25:41

are even more powerful than the H20s

25:43

they used to sell. So, Nvidia got a big

25:45

W there, right? What a surprise that

25:49

right after Nvidia gets this big W from

25:52

the White House to sell to China. Uh

25:55

yeah, you know what? We're not actually

25:56

going to use Intel. [sighs]

25:59

Nvidia gets what they want and then they

26:02

stop pretending. So now this creates two

26:06

potential scenarios. It either means

26:08

that Intel sucks and Nvidia's like,

26:11

"Yeah, no, this ain't going to fly. We

26:12

don't want to put our name on this." Or

26:15

it means that Nvidia, and this is the

26:18

evil thought, Nvidia has TSM's supply

26:22

chain so on lock that they'd rather try

26:24

to make Intel look bad to try to scare

26:27

other people not to use Intel.

26:29

And then they have to use TSM. But TSM

26:32

is so unlock with Nvidia, it then

26:34

strengthens Nvidia's moat because they

26:36

have the lock on supply with TSM. You

26:39

know, if everybody thought Intel had

26:40

endless supply and was equally good or

26:43

better than Taiwan Semi, chip prices

26:46

might plummet. So, Nvidia played some

26:48

really serious 4D chess. If you think

26:50

about it, like, hats off to that Jensen

26:53

guy. He just played Trump hardcore.

26:57

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Intel's great. Yeah.

26:58

We'll manufacture. Yeah. Yeah. Hey, can

27:00

we sell to China? No. No. No. No. I put

27:03

five bill into Intel. You know, it's

27:05

still going well over here. Can we sell

27:06

to China? Okay, fine. and sell in China.

27:08

Cool. All right, cool. Thanks. Selling

27:10

to China. Selling to China. We're done

27:12

with Intel. [laughter] You know, I don't

27:14

know, you know, call call me jaded. And

27:17

so I want to be very clear about this

27:19

where I sit on the Bear Bull scale

27:21

because you know I I there are always

27:23

going to be people who will read a video

27:25

title and and then they don't listen to

27:27

the context or the nuance of a video

27:29

because I get it like it's hard because

27:32

oh my gosh you have to sit there and

27:33

play a 20-minute video. But it's so and

27:36

it's so much easier to just scroll on a

27:37

vertical feed or whatever and get the

27:39

dopamine hit. But I don't think you get

27:40

perspective. And I hope that when you

27:42

watch the these longer form videos,

27:44

you're like, actually, I you can make

27:46

your own thoughts and and educated

27:47

opinions around it all. But I think

27:49

really they recognize that the only

27:51

reason the labor market isn't falling

27:53

off a cliff is because they're propping

27:54

up the market. So do whatever we can to

27:56

keep propping up the market. The Fed

27:58

already started money printing. We're

28:00

doing $40 billion a month of POMO,

28:03

probably 26 to 52- week bills. Uh we are

28:07

doing some tomo as needed. That's those

28:10

are the temporary operations. Those are

28:12

more overnight whereas POMO is again 26

28:14

week to 52 week. That's basically

28:16

stimulus getting injected into the

28:18

market. Uh you know and then obviously

28:21

uh you have the MBS rollover which is

28:23

also just going right back into uh the

28:26

the POMO permanent market operations for

28:28

the 26 to 52 week period. It's

28:31

essentially QE. So all angles, Fed,

28:37

Myron, Trump, Sachs, they'll all lie to

28:41

your face and say it's okay because they

28:44

have to do that to keep the labor market

28:46

up via the market, which again, bullish

28:50

short-term, but it doesn't change that

28:52

big. It's kind of like there's a big

28:55

anvil hanging over our head and like

28:57

somebody's cutting the string and and

29:00

and like Trump and Sachs are the bullies

29:03

that are just like pushing the guy who's

29:04

cutting this the string. They keep

29:06

pushing him like no stay back. Stay back

29:09

and they keep pushing him back.

29:10

Eventually the anvil is going to fall.

29:15

Anyway, yes ju just finish this off to

29:18

be very clear. Yes, the reinvest AI uh

29:22

we're going to start activating this uh

29:24

this month. So, if you bought the AI

29:26

product, uh you'll be getting access to

29:28

it uh this month. Happy Christmas Eve,

29:30

obviously, everyone. You could get the

29:31

AI product. You can learn more about

29:32

what the app has and features now. But

29:34

most important is this this valuation

29:36

AI. Once we combine that with what we

29:39

have now already in our trained AI, this

29:42

product I think will be immensely

29:44

valuable and I'm very excited about it.

29:45

And that's why, you know, if you click

29:47

on the invest in in in the company, you

29:49

house hack reinvest same company. That's

29:51

why I want to end this. Uh, but I told

29:53

everybody that like I don't I'm not

29:54

going to rug poll and just end it

29:56

tomorrow. So that's why I'm like

29:57

mentioning in every video not to shill

29:59

it, but more just to say like I'm being

30:00

clear here. We want to end this. Paying

30:04

5% plus upside because of the

30:06

convertible offering is too much. You

30:09

know, real estate back, invest with

30:10

credit card, AC wires, no fees,

30:12

whatever, no ten, you know, we do all

30:13

that real estate back. Okay, you get it.

30:14

It's not a solicitation. There's risk

30:16

with every investment. You get it. 5%

30:18

yield paid monthly through conversion.

30:19

Whatever. This ends D's 31. And I'm

30:22

looking forward to that because then

30:25

that means we can really like focus on

30:27

AI next year, grow the company, and uh

30:30

and it's way less dilutive to existing

30:33

shareholders. Why why why fundra? We can

30:36

fund raise by selling the actual product

30:38

or the service, which we are, and people

30:40

keep buying it. And that's why we've you

30:42

you know we've gone positive on our RARI

30:44

invest or our AI investments which we're

30:46

excited about. So anyway, uh Samuel

30:48

writes, "I just submitted an a for

30:50

$50,000. I'm really happy." Well, thank

30:51

you for doing that. And you just donated

30:53

$2 for You donated $2 to tell me you

30:56

just sent us 50 grand. You're a nice

30:58

person. Merry Christmas to you, too. Um

31:01

somebody says, "What's the risk? We get

31:03

our money back." No, the risk is you get

31:06

zero back. That's the nature with any

31:08

investment, right? Uh, so, so like I I

31:13

I'm not trying to shill anybody to

31:14

invest. The only reason I say these in

31:17

almost every video is because I don't

31:18

want this fundraiser to close and then

31:20

people send me emails going, "But Kevin,

31:23

you did the tell." Like, "Yeah, I did

31:26

[laughter] like in every possible

31:28

freaking way." Uh, so somebody here

31:30

says, "I worked at Tesla for 12 years,

31:31

Lucid for almost six." Uh, what what

31:34

what's your what are you referencing?

31:35

somebody. Oh, uh, oh, you guys are

31:37

chatting about such. What I will say, a

31:40

quick little note, I do think Tesla has

31:42

a really big resistance level here at

31:46

all-time highs, right? Uh, if it can

31:48

break through this, great. And I think

31:50

that the time for Tesla to break through

31:52

is now because you're everything's, you

31:54

know, we're on a a relatively bullish

31:56

slow schlo up trajectory now. Uh, but uh

31:59

but but there are definitely some

32:00

downside risks at these uh valuations.

32:02

Kevin, I'm trying to invest and

32:03

reinvest. What's the difference between

32:04

accredited investor and nonacredited? If

32:06

you're accredited, I I I would say use

32:08

the accredited portal. Uh but there

32:10

they're very small differences. You if

32:12

you read or just put it into AI. Okay,

32:14

here there's an AI use for you. Take the

32:17

perspectus for the regggd put it into

32:19

AI. Take the reggga a one put it into AI

32:22

and say what's the difference there.

32:24

There, you know, but read yourself. I

32:26

don't want to give you a summary of the

32:28

differences because I think they're

32:29

relatively minor. Uh but but you know I

32:32

can't replace you actually reading these

32:34

documents. Otherwise the SEC is going to

32:36

kick my ass. Although Trump I feel like

32:38

is killing the regulators off by a slow

32:41

bleed. But I actually think that's bad.

32:44

But we don't have to get political. You

32:46

know I I thought the Consumer Financial

32:47

Protection Bureau was actually doing a

32:48

good thing. Uh so the gutting of that is

32:50

a little disappointing. And I I wonder

32:52

you know what what bubbles we create

32:55

when when there's less of a government

32:57

restriction. But then again, you know,

32:58

who knows? I in fairness to be a little

33:01

biased, I'm invested in Netflix and uh I

33:04

kind of want them to buy Warner

33:05

Brothers. You know, I think they're a

33:07

behemoth. Uh and and they're cheap. Uh

33:10

you know, the stock's been on a on a

33:12

near-term downtrend. I think they're

33:14

cheap. So, [music] um anyho, that's my

33:17

take. Uh I appreciate y'all being here

33:19

and uh we'll see you all soon. Thanks so

33:21

much. Goodbye and uh good luck.

33:23

>> Why not advertise these things that you

33:25

told us here? I feel like nobody else

33:26

knows about this. We'll we'll try a

33:28

little advertising and see how it goes.

33:29

>> Congratulations, man. You have [music]

33:30

done so much. People love you. People

33:32

look up to you.

33:33

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

33:35

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

33:37

to get your take.

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