this changes everything for stocks

Time to talk about the market, Jerome

Powell, and what to expect for the next

few weeks, especially our

>> bullish catalyst.

>> Bullish catalyst. First things first,

we're going to give you a quick

overview. We got to talk about uh Jerome

Pal and Federal Reserve, what's going to

happen next week. We've got big earnings

next week as well. And we've got jobs

reports coming up. This may not be on

your radar, but there are critical

things to pay attention to within this.

And all of it is going to be amplified

by the fact that right now markets are

actually getting more bullish on the 102

spread. Less risk, less volatility, more

calm spread now under shock level of

0.5. We've been up and down here since

really liberation and so far no shock

which is great news for markets. And the

question now is can we keep going

higher? Now, before we talk or answer

that question, what we got to talk about

is what my call was this morning in the

alpha report. Remember, you can use a

coupon code release the files at

meetke.com. Get lifetime access to all

the courses and the alpha report. Uh,

this was my call this morning. Keep in

mind, if you join that alpha report, you

you could have joined in 2018 and get

access to this stuff. You pay once, you

get lifetime access, you get all the

courses, the trade alerts, uh, when we

do them, you get the private live

streams, the alpha report, the courses

on stocks, real estate investing,

do-it-yourself property management,

social media, AI, and more Trumpomics

lectures coming out now that the big

beautiful bill is out, which is

exciting. But look at this call from

this morning. This morning, we said uh

my my we discussed these in the live

stream while we talk about them. But I

wrote down the note that we got to see

if Tesla gets 318. How are we going to

do that? As long as Tesla is 3:10 by 7

a.m. California time, 3:18 should be in

the bag. Could break through, but I

think it'll break back down to 318 via

rubber band. That was my call this

morning. Uh, and I'm a big fan of kind

of seeing, hey, like how did the calls

work? Because, mind you, these calls

come out in the pre-market. So, we don't

know, you know, Tesla's at 3:07 in the

pre-market. So, what happened? We broke

to 310 by 7 a.m. We went straight up to

my 318 line. We actually rejected the

318 line for about 10 minutes or so.

Then broke through and sure enough

rubber banded right back down to 318,

which is still a great day for Tesla,

but it gives you some great trading

insights. If you want to be part of

that, make sure you join that at me.com.

That was this morning's report.

Hopefully, we can do more just like

that. So, what we now want to look at

are uh the Fed and jobs. So, Donald

Trump said this morning that when he

talked to Jerome Powell, Jerome Powell

told him privately that the economy is

doing great and that Donald Trump hopes

that because the economy is doing great,

Jerome Powell is going to cut rates. The

problem is Donald Trump misunderstands

why Jerome Powell would cut rates. Now,

we got to give some credence to Donald

Trump. He has nice things to say about

Kevin.

>> Kevin's somebody would consider you.

Kevin is fantastic. Kevin is very

talented, but I don't know it's going to

be him, but he's a very talented guy.

>> Just saying. So, Donald Trump suggesting

that Jerome Powell is really optimistic,

that the economy is doing great. To

Donald Trump is a view that, oh, we're

going to cut rates. He's wrong. The Fed

is not going to cut rates. Barring some

form of shock between now and next

Wednesday, we are not going to get a

rate cut next week. The odds of a rate

cut are very, very low. We've got only

about a 69%

69% chance of a rate cut in September,

but the chance of an interest rate cut

this Wednesday or 2.6%. So very very low

chance, which gives us a combined larger

chance of a cut in September on

September 17th. But as far as July 30th,

no chance. Really, what you do is you

set up for September rate cuts if you

get weaker job reports. The problem with

the jobs reports is nuance tells you

there are problems but the headline is

still doing really well. And while we

know a lot of the job numbers are going

to get revised right now even JPAL says

things are just doing good. That's not a

case for cutting rates that's a case for

keeping rates. Why? Because when we look

at the core components of CPI and PPI,

we actually see that tariff inflation is

starting to affect tariff components,

furniture, toys, autos, equipment, goods

pricing is increasing. If you remove

autos, which are basically in deflation,

partly because of an over supply and

high interest rates of cars. If you

remove autos, we have the highest core

inflation in goods that we've seen in

years. 5.5% annualized inflation which

is very very high for core goods. So

Jerome Powell was aware of this. We look

and we say the labor market is you know

really impressing on the headline there.

There are fires that are starting like

glowing embers that are starting on the

inflationary front. Yes, the argument is

that they could be one time. The doves

at the Fed like Waller who's applying

for the job to basically be the next Fed

chair. His point of view is oh well you

know the labor market could weaken more

suddenly than we expect. So we have to

be cautious of that. That's possible.

But this is where BNP Parabus has an

interesting argument. They say that we

do not think that the Dove's argument

that the market is on a precipice of

deterioration for the jobs market is

accurate. He they actually say that

because we're getting some clarity on

tariffs, yes, they're higher than

expected, but because we're getting some

clarity on tariffs, we're seeing a

stabilization in business and financing

conditions as well as financial

conditions. This could actually help us

secure a soft landing now. We I while I

do think we are slowing and we've been

slowing for quite a while, the concern

is are we going to fall off a cliff,

right? So, if we have kind of this

slowing economy right here, it's like

you're coming in for a landing with a

plane. Always plane references, I know,

private planes, pps, you know, you know

me. The goal is that you don't actually

land. It's that you take off again,

right? And then of course, worst case

scenario, you hit the ground hard with a

hard landing. You don't want that. We're

basically

here. We're kind of like at decision

point where it's like, all right, like

are we going to stabilize or we going to

keep going? The last jobs report showed

us that only 15,000 jobs came from the

private sector. That's from the non-farm

payrolls report. 147,000 on the

headline, though. That was great. You

know, everybody looked at the 147

headline. We're like, "This is and the

unemployment rate was going down

potentially because of deportations or

otherwise. And the current estimates for

July aren't bad. 111,000 jobs for July.

These are great. These are overall great

numbers and stable. Yes, there is

underlying weakness though, which aligns

with consumer spending declining. Uh

consumer spending expected to just be

1.3% annualized in 2025. In addition to

that, I want you to see this line right

here, which I thought was the most

critical. I always in my opinion try to

just like highlight the bottom lines and

give you the best stuff. But I think

this is very very interesting. They say

that businesses have learned the lesson

of past recessions that if they are

overly proactive in laying off staff or

reducing investment as the economy

softens, it could be hard to basically

grow again and resume investment and

hire people when you're coming out of

recession. In other words, don't cut too

much and just try to like hunker down

the hatches. You know, cut batch

whatever. Uh, you know, cut on the

margin, but don't cut deeply to where

you're hurting yourself to be able to

get back to a growth environment.

Because remember, the best time to grow

a business is coming out of a recession

because you basically only have up ahead

of you. That obviously leads to

questions now because the stock market

is, you know, doing pretty remarkable.

Uh in fact you know if you look at the

30 minute here you could really see the

uptrend on the cues over the last uh

weeks or so really earnings are

supporting this Google earnings the

capex spend was great though Google

stock just isn't performing as well as

you would think it would service now

gave up a lot of its gains despite its

beats so there are some signs that the

stock market is feeling a little toppy

but that could be offset by some

hopefully incredible earnings that we

get next week next week we're going to

be Microsoft, Meta, Robin Hood, SoFi. We

expect all of these probably to be

really good next week. Like, you should

see record numbers of trading volumes at

Robin Hood, especially options and

crypto. That's where they make most of

their money. The vast majority of Robin

Hood's money comes from options and

crypto. Services at Microsoft and Meta

and Capex spend should be bullish, which

should be bullish for AMD and Nvidia as

well. Hood and SoFi have had a pretty

big run. So, we'll see if they can, you

know, keep it up, so to speak. Uh, but

we'll also see Vertive, which will be

another play for the uh, you know, capex

side. Google expanded their capex. We

expect to hear that as well from Meta

and Microsoft, especially with how much

money they're spending poaching

developers. You look at AMD, by the way,

this was another call in our course

member alpha report where I said, "Hey,

we are we're about to trend up to 160

and if we can break the 160s, we're

going to 173." I still believe this is

likely, especially with earnings next

week. Uh AMD is really catching up. It

was trading for such a discount for so

long. Uh on top of that, uh keep in mind

you have to be careful of the momentum

trades. We were pitching open door for

weeks before this. The reason why is

because we saw this trend from 50 to 60

cents. I watch real estate stocks very

very closely. And so we pitched this

momentum and when the momentum started

this Monday, I said the top here is

either 350 or five. That was back when

it was in the $2. It rejected within 3

cents of five. Uh and then we expected a

bleed from there, which is basically

exactly what's happened. You got to be

careful with some of these momentum

names. I actually think we're going back

as these bleed out. People are going to

be going back to the fundamental trades.

AMD potentially has some upside there.

So, I'd be watching that. Okay, that

said, let's go to this right here.

There's here's a great piece on over

capacity risks coming from a Chinese

double dip. This is basically a TS

Lombard piece where they say there is so

much excess supply from China for goods

that as long as like we stabilize

somewhere with tariffs, we could

actually still see exported deflation

from China, which could help us offset

some of that higher inflation and CPI,

PPI, which is great. This is bullish.

So, in other words, Chinese deflation

bullish. Jobs so far still expected to

be bullish. Nothing's cracked yet. Yes,

there are underlying signs of weakness,

but we are here. We're in a moment where

we're either going to soft land and

we're going to come out of slow growth

and boom again and we'll boom for the

next 10 years or some poop hits the fan

and and panic strikes, you know, over

the next 6 months. Who knows? Uh and you

go down. Hopefully not. If there's any

weakness in jobs, that's when we'll get

rapid uh uh rate cuts. That's when we

might see a Trump stimulus check or

tariff rebate check or whatever he'll

call it. I want you to know this about

house hack as well. With house hack, our

goal is because you know we think rates

will basically be peak this this winter.

So this winter our goal usually we go

shopping between like September and

November. That's when we like to go buy

homes. So we'll be buying a lot of

single family dwellings. We've got about

$13 million in cash ready to deploy. So

we're going to be going shopping with

house act. At the same time we have our

and this is a quiet thing. I you know I

don't want to like I don't want to pull

like an Elon and like overhype something

but we're going to launch an AI

licensing platform for how we find wedge

deals in markets that we're not in

because you know real estate is like a

$4.8 trillion industry and we can't do

deals all across the country. So we

figure why not make SAS revenue with the

product that we have anyway and use

anyway in other markets. So, we think

that'll be really big for investors and

agents, some kind of monthly fee or

whatever to to do your job for you in

terms of making sure you're not missing

deals. Uh, you also over time we want to

build in the opportunity to see

valuation estimates and ROI estimates

which we think will be really good for

renovations.

So, uh, some some really cool exciting

things coming. But for us, part of like

what's going on in in the economy as

well, like are we going up or down? We

want to be prepared. And so that's one

of the reasons why we have you know 13

and sitting in cash uh you know out of

about a $75 million asset company. Uh we

we sit here is is just as some what of a

reserve like okay like what if we you

know you get some bad reports between

now and September great. If we don't

fine like we're good either way. So we

think that that comes to a head uh and

so we'll know for what we want to

exactly do with real estate. But that's

our current plan. Uh, and hey, a soft

landing would be great for our AI plans.

Like, we don't we want AI to keep

killing it because it'd be great for

house hack. Uh, but we'll be prepared

either way what happens. And I think

everybody should sort of look at it that

way as well. Somebody here says 110k

jobs is effing terrible. Well, you know,

BNP Parabus actually put together a note

here. They said that their break even

jobs that they think right now is 75 to

100. So usually

like if you're under 100k you're

recessionary because of revisions and

and other aspects uh you know such as

here break even pace refers to what is

required to absorb new labor supply and

keep unemployment rate steady right so

in other words if you're under that the

unemployment rate goes up it's

recessionary plus revisions you got to

consider so 110 is actually above that

you know that's their estimate which you

obviously you know could be wrong so

with all that said make sure to use uh

coupon code meet uh sorry release the

files at meetcaven.com.

I got to go help Jack now. I promised

I'd help him and uh appreciate you all.

But overall very bullish. Hope you

appreciate the alpha report readouts and

uh we'll keep them coming to you.

Appreciate y'all and we'll keep

providing value.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.