how much I just lost shorting…

hey everyone me kevin here so i wanted

to give you an update on my short

which is uh really a hedge right

when i made my short video i think a lot

of people they see a title and i'm like

oh my gosh three and a half million

dollars short the market uh this

person's a bear uh he's a suit uh let's

try to squeeze them or whatever you

can't really squeeze uh

somebody who's

basically investing in an inverse etf

because they're swap contracts and it's

not short interest this doesn't work

that way um it's really just the inverse

performance of arc well arc is up today

right and a lot of stocks are up today

uh they were actually down miserably

this morning and what i'm gonna do is

i'm gonna give you a breakdown of uh

what happened to my portfolio today so

uh how much did i lose or how much did i

make i'm gonna provide that i'm gonna

give you the exact numbers so uh

so here's the thing this morning

uh on on sort of a day-to-day trade this

morning was killing it

absolutely killing it ark was down like

two percent tesla was was uh uh uh up uh

i'm sorry tesla was down four percent

the market looked pretty poopy doopy

and it kind of reiterated okay well this

is why you want to hedge a little bit

right

well then everything changed then we got

the consumer spending data and consumer

spending data came in so much higher

than expected at one point three percent

growth month over month people are

basically taking the higher spend and

the higher savings that they've had

built up in personal savings over the

last few months to to really 18 months

when i say a few months uh and the uh

the wealth effect of people feeling

richer with their real estate and maybe

people wanting tax write-offs to go buy

crap towards the end of the year that

they're spending money like freaking

crazy and not so and so consumer

spending went through the roof and arc

went from like negative two percent uh

tesla went from negative four percent

and a lot of other stocks went from big

old negatives

to all-time freaking new highs uh arc

went up like well i think they closed

somewhere around 1.6 or 1.7 percent on

the day

tesla ended up uh fractionally like

point five percent on the day which is a

big recovery from the down that we were

going to see

etsy was up substantially matter poor i

mean etsy was up over six percent nvidia

about three percent matterport

substantially we had some really fat

beautiful incredible

gains

in the market today and a lot of it

based on consumer

spending which is very very exciting

now these are the kinds of stocks that

tend to u-turn when we get food in the

markets again fudd might come from uh

congressional uncertainty government

shutdown uncertainty covet uncertainty

that's usually when we expect consumer

spending to decline for example somebody

asked me hey kevin you think you

mentioned that you think that paypal is

down potentially because of lockdowns in

europe well you know paypal is mostly

online wouldn't that be good for paypal

no not necessarily because when you get

also keep in mind that kathy sold paypal

a few days ago or at least sold some of

her paypal while it's like big time down

so she's not buying the dip on paypal

but she's buying the dip on zoom

uh she thinks zoom's like a cisco i i

don't know how i feel about that i mean

i know zoom does a lot of other things

than just like

oh let me zoom you uh you know chat

services phone services and some

incredible things for their commercial

clients but i don't know maybe because

i'm not a commercial client i'm not so

familiar with that maybe because she is

she's more familiar with this or she

spent the time to be familiar with it

but anyway good for her

so um uh okay so so we're we're

uh where are we going with this ah yeah

paypal coven here's the thing when you

have lockdowns in places like germany or

austria what you're actually doing is

you're leading people to spend less

money even though the money they do

spend is more likely to be online than

in person

generally when we go into lockdown modes

and areas people overall spend much less

money that's why consumer spending is so

hot right now uh compared to for example

when delta was really spiking in america

at the end of uh july and beginning of

august going into september

because people are people are happy like

they're going out they're not so worried

about coveted in america now we got a

red pill from pfizer that you can take

uh potentially i'm not sure if they got

the eua yet i don't think they did uh

but soon you'll be able to take the red

pill from pfizer if you don't if you're

not vaccine you get sick or you're

vaccinated you still get sick whatever

right

uh so anyway consumer spending usually

goes down in lockdowns whether it's

online or in person and it goes up when

there are feelings of euphoria and right

now we've got the wealth effect pushing

consumer spending to the freaking moon

uh supply chain issues make some

consumers spending a lot harder it's a

lot harder to shop uh nike it's harder

to shop nordstroms or macy's it's a lot

easier to shop etsy when you look at the

stock charts they tell the story for you

it's very blatantly obvious so now let's

get to the point of my portfolio i'm

heavily exposed to things like etsy

matterport tesla things that did very

very well today i did hedge

hedgehedgehedge is an insurance policy

in the event the market goes down if the

market goes up it just means you have a

lower net total return right

so i did the math i added up uh just my

largest accounts i added up my jp morgan

i'm up a little over 190 000

my weeble i'm up a little over a hundred

and uh eighty-five thousand dollars my

robin hood up about forty thousand

dollars and so when when i tie these

together uh the exact math was well

that's not exactly this i'm still

getting around i was about 420 000 that

i'm up on the day including the l that i

took on sarc

uh now when i separate this that means

my entire portfolio was actually up 520

thousand dollars and my s arc position

was down 100k today that's a lot on one

position but then again that's also a

three and a half million dollar position

which is like a little fart you know

it's like a three percent move or

whatever uh and that's actually i think

my total because arc started rallying a

little bit into the close yesterday so

anyway yeah that position's down

uh it's a hedge so my portfolio and this

is why i say like i'm when people

misconstrue and think that oh i'm i'm

shorting the market now really i'm

creating a little bit of an insurance

policy i i think i i don't know if i'm

going to close this position early

because i do think we still have the

potential for pain once the

congressional drama comes around i don't

know if it's going to be worth holding

on to the short through then because i

could lose a lot of money on that short

position between now and then and then

if the market falls you know maybe it

makes sense to have that established a

little bit closer to maybe when the

congressional drama starts uh which

could be at the end of next week or the

week thereafter you know maybe sit out

shorting for a week i'm not going to

make any changes well i didn't make any

changes today but as soon as i make a

change as always i'm going to send an

alert in the stocks and psychology of

money group so everybody who's in there

will get an alert anytime i make a

change and i make it very clear just

like i did when i posted this

notification that this is only a hedge

like i'm still

80 85 long on this market uh and so yeah

my hedge cost me a little bit of money

today when you look at it as a portfolio

return wise because it's not a perfect

hedge it's not perfectly aligned it was

about uh a 20 cost

uh the insurance wise but um hey you

know what still still very long term

bullish very long term excited and this

gives you a little bit of an update in

terms of how

a

hedge could work uh what it costs you

when the market keeps going up but

either way in terms of the market today

it was a good day

a lot of people made money i made money

i hope you made money as well uh and uh

if you didn't i hope you make good money

when we get back to work on friday in

the meantime enjoy your thanksgiving

check out the programs in that expiring

coupon code link down below and folks

see in the next one thanks so much bye