Tesla JUST Flipped.

all right first things we gotta talk at

Tesla one of the reasons we have to talk

Tesla on this is because almost every

institution that attended the Tesla

event has released their letter on what

their takeaways are for Tesla that is

going to be quite interesting to break

through we're going to look at Barclays

Goldman Sachs and what some of the other

institutions are saying in their reports

to their clients about the Tesla

investor Day event now I love looking at

what the institutions are saying because

it's not clouded or shrouded in that

sort of retail bull thesis generally

retail is extremely bullish on Tesla

it's probably the stock that is held by

most retail investors and it's one of

the largest retail held stocks outside

of index funds like let's say the S P

500 which boy there are potentially some

big risks coming to the S P 500 but with

that said I really want to take a look

at those institutional reports because

the institutional mindset in my opinion

is very very important right now we've

got plenty of retail capital in Tesla

but what is that institutional Capital

actually going to flow back into Tesla

is it going to be predicated on the

market or would investor day have any

kind of changing effect on what

institutions believe for Tesla we'll

determine that in this video now I'd

like to also clarify because there are

some folks who are making the argument

that oh Kevin's being too short-term

minded in terms of being frustrated

about the Tesla investor Day event and

I'd like to address that before we

address what the institutions are saying

first it's very important to know that

the vast majority of people who are

affected by Tesla stock are affected on

a short-term basis that means employees

employees being hired employees just

hired employees who are considering

working for Tesla in either the

manufacturing era in the area in the uh

autonomous driving segment in the AI

segment and the chips manufacturing or

designing segment anyone who wants to

work for Tesla or works for Tesla is

immediately affected by a decline in the

share price of Tesla stock therefore

it's really important for Tesla to do

everything in their power to make sure

short-term headwinds do not create too

much of a downtrend for Tesla stock that

then becomes self-fulfilling and

shortable now Elon Musk obviously and

clearly violated this himself in 2022

with his 24 billion dollars of stock

sales that highly outpace the 15 billion

dollars of retail net purchases that's a

problem and obviously led to Tesla's

terrible drop to 100 bucks now that may

for long-term investors create a

fantastic buy the dip opportunity but

what it can do is create a demoralizing

environment for employees and individual

investors who are affected by the short

term so it is in my opinion very

important that Tesla do whatever they

can to organize their presentations in

such a way that they're not actually

misleading people now don't get me wrong

we know in the world of a YouTube

YouTube's one of those places where the

titles are often dramatic and then we've

got to actually get through the content

well in the case of Tesla they did

exactly what people dislike on YouTube

in person they provided an investor day

title but what they really did was

provide sort of a margin update and an

update on how we're going to scale and

at the same time reduce costs in the

long term with a lack of detail on time

frames those were a slap in the face to

investors in the short term because

without time frames without an organized

presentation without exact information

on hey here's how all of this

coordinates together it's kind of on the

World to sort of pick up the pieces and

go okay like that sounds good that

sounds good okay how can we put this

together and how does this align with

projections for time frames or when are

these actually going to get incorporated

into future factories and gigafactories

what what are the expectations we should

actually start pricing in right without

that you're not actually creating an

investor Day presentation you're doing

more of a hey by the way here's how

we're looking at innovating in the

future but we've really got little

insights in terms of timing or time

frames for investors and that's why you

think Elon Musk himself said this isn't

for investors like shareholders this is

actually for investors in earth right

for that sustainable Master Plan Three

now that's fantastic for a long-term

investor don't get me wrong I find

myself to be one of the largest

long-term focused investors on the

platform now some people make fun of me

for that and they say oh really you're

the flip-flopper guy who've sold stocks

in 2022 and then rebought later but the

reality is anyone who looks back at that

decision and questions that decision is

living under a rock they are sticking

their head in the sand like a dumb

ostrich and is a complete idiot for

suggesting that I should not have sold

in early 2022 in January and that's

exactly what I did and I never bought a

single stock while suggesting that I

would sell right that I always thought I

was going to hold my stocks it wasn't

until I changed my opinion that I said

oh I'm not buying anymore I've got a big

change coming and within 12 hours of me

selling my stocks the entire world knew

about that that some people like to try

to suggest that oh somehow Kevin you

know didn't tell the world that uh that

he was selling and he was telling people

to buy while he was selling that never

happened it's a complete lie and that's

what I think is so fantastic about

YouTube because we can actually document

all of that timing and the beauty is

that people who suggest I'm short-term

focused Miss exactly what I'm actually

doing that is I'm so long-term focused I

run an active ETF that has almost a 30

allocation to Tesla a substantial

portion of my own personal portfolio is

invested in Tesla I don't care about the

short-term fluctuations I'm saying Tesla

is making a mistake and I'm frustrated

on the people who are affected by the

short term nobody could tell me that oh

Kevin bought a Jet because he's

short-term focused my jet my plane that

I personally signed for is a down

payment on what I believe will be a 10

to 50 billion dollar company in the

future the jet is me risking my entire

net worth and my livelihood today where

I could retire and never work again

today for an uncertain future 10 to 15

years from now

I can't think of anybody more long-term

focused than that that's what long-term

focus is so in response to anybody who

thinks oh Kevin's a frustrated

short-term minded retail investor you're

a complete because if you actually

look at the actions that I take and you

see what I describe I don't I I would be

hard-pressed to find anybody more

long-term focused than what I do and

yeah I changed my mind but that's

because I changed my mind for what is

going to create the best results in the

future and I think that's exactly what

Tesla's actually doing here

small micro flip-flops and adjustments

now actually lead to exponentially

better results in the future

short-term minded individuals forget

that small adjustments today expand to

massive order of magnitude changes in

the future and I think that's what

institutions are slowly starting to pick

up on and that's why we've got to look

at exactly what the institutions are

saying and we'll go ahead and start with

Morgan Stanley when it comes to Tesla

take a look at this so Morgan Stanley

essentially in the short term maintains

their price target of 220 dollars now I

personally think that's very interesting

because Morgan Stanley suggests we

seriously question how the competition

can keep up with Tesla now I completely

agree with that but I think it's very

fascinating that what institutions are

doing so far and we've just started with

institutions here is they're making it

clear that okay how is the competition

going to keep up but they're not

actually making any kind of changes to

their pricing targets now that's likely

because the outline that we got at

investor day didn't really connect those

dots yet at four most investors and it's

going to be a while before anybody I

think can really model the changes that

Tesla is talking about Beyond what's

already modeled most of Wall Street is

already modeling this idea that okay

7 to 10 million Vehicles by 2030 Tesla

thinks 20 million Vehicles we discount

that somewhere between 50 to 60 to 70

percent we get to Seven to uh 10 million

Vehicles by 2030. at a 50 cost reduction

fantastic we already get a model too

right we know that whether the model 2

is a newer smaller vehicle for the

Chinese market or whether it's just a

newly created model 3 branded as a model

2 that's made with essentially fifty

percent uh reduced cost but so in other

words I do think it's very very

difficult because of the lack of sort of

coordinated vision from Tesla's

presentation for folks to realize that

the small micro changes that are being

made the small adjustments so for

example if if we're on this trajectory

for Tesla or better yet even make it

sort of like if that's the trajectory

for Tesla right I think it's very

difficult for Wall Street to realize oh

okay Tesla just did that in terms of an

adjustment right that was really what

investor day was was sort of that little

adjustment like that by the way is how

we're revising going forward right and

so of course in the short term the

Market's like okay that's very difficult

for us to understand but the reality is

when you look in the long term what

happens is if you stay on the trajectory

this might be your growth if you

continue with the micro adjustments your

growth might be like this and then this

is actually where the bulk of the value

is created in the long term it's when

those small micro adjustments actually

compound to being something extremely

meaningful it's in in my opinion I see

this very personally in my life it's

like starting my real estate startup

househack starting and actively managed

ETF uh you know buying a jet that

enables me to do social media manage an

ETF conduct a deep high level uh and

deep dive research so both high level

and deep dive research and start what

could be in my opinion knock on wood no

guarantees a 10 to 50 billion dollar

company in the future right house high

like those are the little micro

adjustments that are happening right now

so I actually resonate a lot with Tesla

and and the the changes that they're

making for the long term and so in case

it's not abundantly clear what we heard

was fantastic from a long-term point of

view in the short term the inflections

seem so minor and because they were

uncoordinated and because the these

long-term benefits were not properly

explained I think it was a slap in the

face to investors and employees and

potentially new employees in the short

term the vision of Tesla could have

easily been coordinated without actually

providing exact details nobody's saying

hey you need to guarantee us oh the

model 2 was coming out you know January

1st 2025. nobody's suggesting that that

is what Tesla needed to do but

coordinating the vision is what was

missing from investor day and that's why

investor day really in my opinion was

essentially clickbait in the long term

fantastic we could see the adjustments

but for investors in the short term

oopsies but anyway let's keep going here

with what the institution said so Morgan

Stanley suggests that Master Plan 3

entails immense levels of vertical

integration and this vertical

integration will enable Tesla to iterate

far faster and with less waste than

other auto manufacturers this is

important minimizing that waste is

critical even to the point of and

institutions are picking up on this as

well moving from a 12 to 48 volt

architecture Burns less or I should say

ways less energy right because it can

operate more efficiently with

potentially smaller cabling you

potentially have less heat that that

escapes from the internal architecture

of the vehicle and these benefits

compound over time they might seem minor

in the short term but they compound over

time that is actually an idea that lucid

has been integrating into their vehicle

for a very very long time the idea that

we should operate these vehicles at

higher voltage voltages so that way we

could reduce amperages basic electrical

law anyway we believe customers or

rather consumers will one day look back

at electric vehicles from 2023 the way

we look back at cell phones from the

1980s remember Gordon gekko's phone when

he was on the beach out east in the

movie Wall Street Tesla wants to be the

largest manufacturer in the world by

some margin with that ambition achieving

cost leadership is deterministic in

other words without achieving cost uh

efficiency yeah end up screwed well

that's obvious and that's exactly what

Tesla's doing for the long term again

they didn't pull that picture together

for us but that's okay that's where I'm

trying to also will help pull the

picture together and I think that's what

people and media do that's why I

actually think it's very important that

we have the social media we have today

not mainstream media I think we're all

frustrated with most of mainstream media

but I think that's why we come to social

media is to get the perspective that

maybe isn't properly laid out by our

government well almost certainly not

properly laid out or in this case Tesla

we would expect to see most if not all

of today's Legacy auto company executive

teams study the materials presented

today and tour Giga Austin as they have

toured Tesla Fremont facilities in the

past Innovations brought to Market by

Tesla become the industry standard and

are ultimately used by all automakers

not unlike how Henry Ford was moving the

assembly line now this is really

interesting because you really have

Morgan Stanley again maintaining their

price Target and keeping their view of

Tesla in line but at the same time

they're saying oh my gosh nobody is

going to be able to compete with Tesla

so this is why we're making this video

right to coordinate and sort of

consolidate what is Wall Street taking

away from this it's also worth noting by

the way that shipments from Giga

Shanghai climbed to 74

402 and this is 74 402 Vehicles were

delivered from Shanghai last month that

is up 13 from the prior month it's down

off some of the very high numbers we saw

at the end of Q4 last year uh but uh but

but still finally returning to a larger

Trend as that main export facility for

Teslas

suppliers on watch I actually think this

is one of the reasons you saw uh MP

materials drop about 13 yesterday was

this talk about removing rare earth

materials from uh from Tesla's engines

was an immediate slap in the face to MP

materials and this is where it's it's in

my opinion quite ridiculous for people

to say that the short-term stock

movements or or short-term uh

occurrences uh don't matter to stocks

they absolutely do I mean look at this

you know what Tesla just did to MP

materials it's it's not just that the

stock fell eleven ten percent ten eleven

percent it's not just that you know what

Tesla just did to MP material they sent

a massive red flag to anyone working at

MP material solely focused on Rare Earth

minerals

that your days may be limited doubt has

just been cast on the jobs of anyone

working on rare Earths in uh magnet

motors which are basically electric

motors right electromagnet right electro

electric electricity and magnetism are

essentially the same Force it's kind of

cool actually if you've ever broken a

taken apart uh a a motor you'd know that

uh it's it's pretty fascinating how how

similar they are I mean they're

essentially the same Force it's awesome

I mean that's how generators work after

all right anywho so uh going back to

Morgan Stanley over here Morgan Stanley

says Tesla's on a mission to further

reduce part count mass weight and

complexity while bringing more

components in-house smaller and less

complex wire harnesses fewer silicon

carbide chips and the elimination of

rare Earths in permanent magnet motors

where a few examples provided during

investor day on the raw material side of

the quiet stream we still haven't seen

too terribly much detail in terms of

what Tesla exactly wants to do here

however what we did see is 20 different

Executives across all operational

disciplines now Morgan Stanley says no

teleprompters in my opinion it's

actually incorrect that there were sort

of preview screens in front of the

presenters it was very obvious that at

least one of the engineers was straight

up reading from the computer screen in

front of front of them and look that's

fine but let me just from sort of a

media point of view say you could take

all of the information from these

executives

but you need someone else there to

consolidate or to simplify what they're

saying for example this is how you could

make the presentation so much easier you

have one person talking about let's say

full self-driving right and they go into

the weeds of full self-driving this this

this and then you have somebody else it

could even be musk himself but anyone

somebody with a media mindset who comes

out and says now those are the details

here is the impact of what that means

what that means is we believe we are

five years at least five years ahead of

the competition we believe that because

it's taken X number of hours to train

our neural Nets an X number of miles

driven this is where the competition is

this is where we are now we also think

we're X percent closer to achieving full

self-driving for all vehicles without a

driver even present to where within the

next X number of years we think we can

release a vehicle with no steering wheel

now no guarantees yet but we are you

know 95 of the way there or whatever

right I'm making up some of the numbers

or leaving them as variables because

that's for Tesla to do but what they

need is a translator basically

and that's either going to be Tesla or

it's going to be potentially social

media right but it's more difficult for

it to be social media because we don't

have all of the extra answers to create

the impacts from that information it's

sort of like here's the platter of

information overload and nobody's really

tying it together in terms of okay how

does this actually Stack Up Now how how

close are we now to FSD right we don't

know because we didn't have somebody

consolidate that information that's my

frustration with Tesla don't get me

wrong the information is fantastic what

happened is fantastic but by skimping

out on somebody who can consolidate the

message much the way that Apple does at

an apple presentation

will you end up losing and you hurt

people and investors in the short term

that's why I think it's hilarious when

people say oh Kevin's just a short-term

mind investor

I I don't even need to continue to

defend that uh it's it's so ludicrous

nobody risks their entire net worth for

a startup if they're not a long-term

minded individual nobody throws

everything uh in their reputation onto

that startup or an actively managed ETF

or or you know a publicly flip-flops and

gets the world to hate them even though

they're doing what ultimately was the

right thing nobody does that if they

have a short-term minded Outlook right

if I had a short-term minded Outlook I'd

care more about subscribers and pleasing

everybody when the reality is what I do

is I provide my real opinion whether

that's on politics or stocks

I'm gonna keep doing that anyway uh

let's see here the non-avail of the

model two I mean I I didn't expect a

model 2 to get presented either neither

they did Barclays neither did Morgan

Stanley there were a lot of people who

did uh there was the cannibalization

argument that Barclays talked about that

they were not going to do this because

they could potentially cannibalize sales

in the future that's fine uh this this

is not that big of a deal it would have

been nice though to have sort of a rap

of okay got it so gen 3 50 less cost how

about like at least some kind of guide

like are we looking at end of the decade

the beginning of the 2030s are we

looking at you know 2027 like how about

I mean this could have in my opinion

been as simple as this you could have

one single slideshow uh a little and and

this is this is going to be my estimate

by the way right so it's this is going

to be my my speculation here but I think

you could have had uh one slide that

would have said something like this

here's our roadmap

we think uh a semi-truck uh full scale

by 2025

cyber truck uh full scale uh let's put

that actually right here and we'll call

this by let's say 2024.

uh cyber truck first delivery 2023 and

then what you could say something like

this is Mexico Giga 2024

uh complete right and then you go over

here and you say Mexico Giga uh would be

let's say uh ramping 2025. uh Mexico

Giga uh potentially releases first

you know next gen vehicle Q4 2025 Mexico

Giga ramps next gen vehicle 2026. uh you

know uh first first Optimus Optimus

robots on a floor by let's say 2027

right like this this kind of road map is

something that would not have been very

difficult for Tesla to give in my

opinion unfortunately that wasn't given

and again it doesn't have to be perfect

like we could we could say look we can't

guarantee this result but at least some

sort of vision of how does this all

stack together how does the Mexico

gigafactory fit in to the plan you know

we heard it was announced but we don't

know how it fits into the plan now we

think we know we think that batteries

are going to manufacture get

manufactured at Giga Texas and then

potentially go to Vehicles assembled in

the Mexico gigafactory at a lower cost

maybe with Optimus robots and at the

same time cheaper Mexican labor and when

you combine that you get the recipe for

potentially a model 2 with the parallel

processing that we learned about rather

than serial processing that's by the way

is a very important word so if you're a

Tesla investor you really have to know

this so see a parallel processing is

basically taking the car and moving it

from Station to Station to Station right

that's what cars do now the uh oh sorry

this is this is a series in series

processing my mistake that's in series

processing in parallel processing is

you're taking different components of

the vehicle and your manufacturing on

the you're essentially putting these

together at the same time so if this

direction here represents time then

rather than the product moving through

time the product at the same time is

manufactured you know in in just

separate parts so parts right

essentially the idea here is that now

you can have robots work on different

parts of the vehicle at the same time

you assemble it like Legos and you cut

the time down substantially that's

required for manufacturing these right

now unfortunately uh it doesn't seem

like that Tesla Optimus robot is

particularly close especially since what

individuals have posted online is a

close-up of the robot hand here and we

do see that the Optimus you know grabs

something here but what's quite odd is

when you look at this closely it

actually looks like this uh this hose

here uh it's a it's a hose sleeve

for what looks like maybe you know I

don't know 14 16 gauge wiring you can

see that gauged wiring right here it's

very small I mean this is like sort of

the typical wiring that you might see uh

for for uh you know up to a 120 volt

circuit or something like that but could

be even smaller but anyway it's covered

by this hose right here uh and it looks

like this is some sort of uh actuator

here or or Servo so to speak and uh the

idea here is that the Tesla Optimus can

already unplug this and it's sort of a

way of maybe unembarrassing the Optimus

presentation

the last time we had sort of the Optimus

event where you know it it was still

impressive to see okay Real World Vision

is coming to robots we know like this is

fantastic but it's still it wasn't the

best presentation right and so this

video is sort of an attempt to uh maybe

fix that by showing us a robot that that

appears to be able to walk and and

position its hand where this rope is or

this hose is the problem is this hose

begins to move well below well before

the Optimus actually makes contact with

the hose which actually implies that

there's an individual off camera to the

left over here who's actually pulling

the hose out of the actuator for the

robot uh and this is really more click

bait here from Tesla ready for this

watch very slowly

see look at that that cable pulls out

before

see look at right here right here

there's no contact made by the hands yet

right the hands are not really I mean we

can't tell that this is actually being

contacted yet yeah look right right here

okay there we go

how how does this actually start pulling

back

we don't know now some now maybe maybe

we're just getting a bad angle here but

why does it look as though somebody else

is potentially pulling it Maybe not

maybe maybe that fingertip is a lot

thicker than we think it is or there's a

larger piece of metal that's sort of the

inside of the hand here inside of the

finger that is actually lifting this but

there's some rumor that this is actually

a person who's pulled this plug out

because the plug actually seems to pull

out well before

the hand does anything look at that now

on this side so I've been at I've had

your attention here now I want your

attention to go to this plug over here

pay attention to the plug watch the plug

come out

before because I see your comments some

of you saying oh it lifts it up okay

yeah maybe maybe the metal stick right

here uh or or maybe it's possible Right

but now I want you to tell me if this

plug coming out is possible so pay

attention out to this plug okay ready

for this

watch the plug come out before the hand

moves to the left

and plug plugs come in right here plug

comes out right here

is it possible

that the plug comes out because the

finger puts so much pressure on the hose

that the plug starts coming out yes it's

possible but it looks like the plug is

just floating out of there before the

hand actually really pulls

right and the other thing now part three

is watch this motion where the hose gets

joint almost before the hand pulls back

okay look at this in this Frame that

you're about to see yoink it's it's

almost as if it's happening before the

hand is actually appropriately moving

back now we're not sure maybe it is

possible it is possible that there's a

lot of tension on this piece right here

and if there's a lot of tension on this

piece uh and on the hose maybe it comes

flinging out when there's enough

pressure put on this by the fingers to

pull it out of the socket maybe maybe

but then again then again we do know

that there has been a reputation of

Tesla to kind of show things that aren't

really working yet just for the

excitement Factor now in the future it

will work so it's fine it's not a big

deal but again what would have been nice

would have been a little bit more Vision

around the idea of hey look you know

this is where we've gotten to now with

the Optimus we think the Optimus is

going to be on the floor of a factory

doing stuff like this or at least in Bay

data as soon as 2024 right like you

don't need to give us guarantees you

don't have to give us absolute exacts

but put the puzzle together for people

that's what's missing and that's because

Tesla's not investing in a media person

or a media Department really here right

it's sort of just like here we'll put it

all on the plate and we'll sort of let

social media or the mainstream media run

rampant anyway let's keep going here

with some of the investor information so

we did learn that the uh the powertrain

might go down to about a thousand a

dollar cost per vehicle electric

architecture uh this is where they talk

about a 16x reduction in lost power by

moving potentially from a 12 volt

architecture to 48 volt architecture

it's important to know that when they

say here reducing current uh Factor by

4X that does not actually mean really

anything the only thing that matters is

the potential lack of waste because if

you increase the voltage you will

increase the yeah or if you increase the

voltage you will decrease the amperage

but the wattage is the same the power

used is the same the only thing you save

is potentially having a more efficient

wiring system that releases less heat so

potentially that's where you save the

energy but from a formulaic point of

view just because you increase the

voltage does not make the system more

efficient it's just in potentially the

fact that there's less heat that's

important think about actually why

Europe uses the 240 volt architecture

it's not like when you go plug in a

microwave in Europe it's using more

power than American uh uh microwaves

it's using the same wattage a thousand

watt microwave over there is the same as

a thousand watt microwave over here

that's important to remember the

difference though is if you have more

efficient wiring you could potentially

use thinner wires because they don't

need to be as overheat rated and that's

how you could potentially make building

and construction more efficient by

having the entire property constructed

out of a 240 volt wiring system it also

means you have 240 volt plugs everywhere

so if you want to plug in a washing

machine or an electric dryer or a stove

you don't have to run a different set of

cabling for that like you do here in

America now it's not to be confused with

people who take an American hair dryer

that's designed for 120 a volt system

and plug it into a 240 volt system with

a converter in Europe yeah that thing's

going to glow and look like it's using a

whole lot more power that's because it's

drawing twice as much power as it's

designed for it okay but again the

efficiency here is is really not in the

formulaic change it's potentially in

that the wiring would would lead to a

reduction in sort of wasted energy okay

that's fine again lucid's been doing

that

robot was able to provide a perform

menial tasks as originally intended

that's fine we saw that and we just

commented on this I did like the

estimate that there would be potentially

more than one humanoid for every human

at the factory I did think that was

actually fantastic and I really enjoyed

that uh that that sort of forecast so

I'm going to go through just some some

more of those the main parts of Wall

Street here mega pack can connect to any

grid globally it's the most energy dense

Solution on the market at upwards of 300

megawatts per acre megawatt hours mega

pack is 2x more energy dense than a

traditional power plant fantastic should

Tesla be able to hit the cost targets

outlayed today when coupled with OP X

discipline we find it hard to see a way

in which Legacy automakers can compete

with Tesla in terms of EV profitability

that right here is a fantastic line

Morgan Stanley is saying we find it hard

to find a way for it for legacies to

compete with Tesla we already know that

Ford is not expected to be profitable

until 2026 and they're already miserably

failing GM is probably also not

profitable uh and we're not even talking

about profitable we're talking about

wildly unprofitable right it's kind of

like rivian when we looked at the rivian

numbers they are spending on a net basis

three hundred thousand dollars to make

an 82 000 car as of their Q4 earnings on

a gross basis they are spending two

hundred thousand dollars per vehicle to

make an eighty two thousand dollar car

it's incredible okay but anyway uh so

they are maintaining their price target

of 220 for 2023

pretty low no no changes here on price

Target from Morgan Stanley uh we've got

Bank of America suggesting that the

presentation was a little light on

details they're also maintaining their

25 uh 225 Target uh it's worth noting

that again when they talk about being

light on details they're really talking

about uh combining the vision where like

the dates that I talked about I think

are actually realistic the dates that I

gave but Tesla should be the one putting

that Vision out so that way we know what

are they working towards I can guess all

day long but what are they working

towards it's kind of like when Elon Musk

poo pooed the idea of the copy and paste

that's fine but that's the first time

we've seen him poo poo that idea okay

fine don't copy and paste make every

gigafactory different fine then maybe

that aligns with the idea that maybe the

Mexico gigafactory is for the model too

maybe there's another gigafactory that's

for the Optimus robot right and that the

gigafactories are just basically tuned

to different purposes maybe that's why

Elon Musk seem to kind of shake his head

at that idea that's fine but again

immediate person could combine all those

details that's why it's middle finger

for short term purposes long term I mean

I I don't think I don't I I would

venture to say there's nobody more

bullish uh on on YouTube at least uh uh

than me so uh Sandy Monroe uh now what's

interesting is he's extremely bullish

but at least when I had my last

interview with him and I'm going to talk

to him this April about that uh likely

when we meet together is he was was an

argue he was he was Pro not investing in

uh Tesla stock uh during the time of my

interview which maybe ended up being a

good thing I don't think that anyone

could have predicted that Elon Musk was

going to dump as much as he did for

Twitter but uh but it'll be interesting

to sort of get his updated perspective

on that so uh um Sandy Monroe said

something very interesting though he

says uh he says and this is why I want

to ask him he says he's putting his

money not booting his money he says I'm

putting my money on uh Tesla as model 2

the 25 000 vehicle basically being Like

the Model T and the beetle not an

expensive luxury car but a mass-produced

style of car that everybody can afford

that was the idea of the Model T that

was the idea of the Volkswagen Beetle

that everybody could afford it and Sandy

thinks that's uh that's likely to be

essentially the model too and we're not

clear if that'll be a smaller vehicle

but anyway uh the Bank of America

maintaining their 225. let's jump into

Barclays three Barclays all right let's

go to Goldman Sachs first so here's

Goldman Sachs the bottom line is we

believe the event the event should

increase investor confidence in Tesla's

ability to reduce cost by 50 with its

next-gen platform however we believe

many investors were hoping for more

specifics on when a third gen vehicle

could begin shipping and therefore the

lack of clarity beyond the comment that

they're working as fast as they can

could be viewed as a disappointment to

some I agree that's exactly problem

again the content fantastic the summary

bad now unfortunately their 12-month

price Target here is 200 so they

actually see more near-term downside now

I think that's kind of remarkable uh

because they actually think and this

blows my mind they actually think

that Tesla is going to grow EPS

negatively in 2024 3. this year they

think Tesla's EPS will be negative in

2023.

okay all right whatever uh and then and

then go back to maybe 50 to 20 growth in

the next few years

uh so you know somebody here nightclub

says I don't think they want to put out

a date because it's never met and it

hurts investors I disagree with that

highly I actually think it's very

important to put out a date because it

actually creates the pressure to achieve

close to that date right if you come out

and say let me put it this way okay

think about it this way everybody does

this everybody on a human level can do

this

oh I'm gonna start working out and I'm

gonna get buff or whatever or I'm gonna

exercise more and we tell ourselves that

yet when do we actually do it we

generally don't right most of us don't

and it's just the way it is where we go

once in a while oh we're going to eat

better right well if we actually set a

goal I will have lost X weight by X date

well now you measure your performance

towards that date and even if you miss

it you're more likely to have performed

substantially better leading up to that

date than if you didn't actually set a

goal date setting a goal date and

communicating a goal date now actually

unifies Tesla staff at all right might

be ambitious but let's try to make it

happen when you just do ah we're doing

our best you take the pressure off you

should never take the pressure off it's

like my goals with house hack my goal

with house hack is to and again no

guarantees is to IPO an extremely

profitable company that could be in my

opinion worth billions of dollars in the

future

before the end of the decade before I I

don't want to get into the 2030s without

it having IPO now I don't know what's

going to happen who knows maybe there'll

be a market crash in 2029 and it's not

going to make sense I have no idea

what's going to happen right but I'm

setting goals and so I think it's

important to set goals and then hold

yourself accountable to those if you

miss that's okay then just provide a new

update what changed how are we doing in

an adjusted time frame I think setting

time frames is actually extremely

important and this this idea that oh

well you know they always miss their

time frame so let's just stop doing time

frames is a ludicrous example uh or a

ludicrous suggestion for for goal

setting I mean that basically says don't

set goals because you miss all your

goals anyway you know don't don't try to

strive and Achieve something because

you're gonna fail anyway that's a

defeatist point of view that's the worst

way to look at it time frames are very

very very important uh goal setting very

very very very very important you know

send McGuire here says Tesla and Time

Flame frames and and says uh clown clown

clown that's fine you you can argue all

you want that Tesla clowns with its time

frames but setting time frames and goals

is extremely important anyway Goldman

Sachs gives a little bit of a summary of

some of the things that we saw you know

where we're going to see reductions in

fossil fuel we use the big one getting

the grid to Renewables the next big one

EVS I actually thought it was very

interesting that moving planes and boats

2 EV would actually only lead to about a

five percent reduction in fossil fuels

showing you that most of the reduction

of fossil fuels comes from moving the

grid to Renewables and then moving EVS

to Renewables I thought that was really

interesting because like I would love to

use less jet fuel like first of all it's

expensive uh and and you know from uh

from like uh from from the point of view

of efficiency I mean it's fast but it

burns a lot of fuel you know how much

fuel a Boeing 747 Burns

so when when people ask hey how many

miles to the gallon does a Boeing 747

get you actually have to flip it around

it's actually about I believe when I

last look I have to get fact check it's

it's two to five but I'm gonna go with

five because I think that's what it is

it's about five gallons per mile

for a Boeing 747 to fly around that's

crazy

five gallons per mile for a Boeing 747

to fly around right very very so so I

initially thought like wow okay I

thought like Freight and and planes

would would actually be a great place

for efficiency but probably because

there are so many more cars and so many

more grids that's actually not uh the

way to look at it now fortunately I see

what I I'm not trying to like Pat myself

on the back but I purposefully wanted to

get a smaller plane to be as efficient

as possible I could have spent more

money and had a plane that's larger sit

more people but I don't need more people

in it uh my fuel burn on my plan is

about 165 gallons uh per hour and that

works out to roughly about 3.5 miles per

gallon uh so not great it's pretty low

but then again you're going 565 miles

per hour roughly at Max Speed there's

some takeoff considerations there and it

changes some of the averages a little

bit uh but but a larger plane that we

were also considering last year

especially would have gotten about one

mile per gallon uh yeah what would have

gotten about one mile per gallon so

we're like yeah let's try to be we get

it let's try to be as efficient as

possible but anyway I just mentioned

that because I think it's interesting I

don't think people generally think about

like how many miles per gallon planes

actually get uh and uh and then at the

same time I thought it was very

interesting how uh moving uh planes and

boats to sustainability full

sustainability would only lead to a five

percent reduction fossil fuels that was

interesting I get it like on a per

vehicle basis it's not as great but from

from uh from an overall uh energy

sustainability standard it's probably

the last place to get innovated uh

because it has the least impact I

thought that was interesting anyway here

we talk about balancing the serial line

approach versus the parallel approach

how that could potentially lead to 40 44

better operator density and 30 better

space-time efficiency

uh some other efficiencies here we

didn't really get any kind of autonomy

targets talked a little bit about

charging and wanting to build more talk

about software Mega packs uh we talked

about implications here we go Goldman

Sachs bottom line is we believe this

event should increase investor

confidence in Tesla's ability to reduce

costs by 50 with its next-gen platform

given the breadth and depth of Tesla's

team and how its vertically integrated

model allows it to optimize on both cost

and performance however we believe many

investors were hoping for more specifics

on when a third generation vehicle could

be shipping and therefore the lack of

clarity beyond the comment that they're

working as fast as they could uh be in

the next couple of years is likely to be

viewed as a disappointment by some we

believe a couple of years would imply

the 2025 time frame and we continue to

believe later in 2025 would be more

probable probable I I actually agree

with about a 2026 for a model 2 time

frame I think that's very interesting

so let's see somebody here writes MPGs

for older people

[Laughter]

okay uh looking back can you explain

while by selling in January 22 was the

right thing when you had to pay taxes

and gains since buying back uh has a tab

blah blah blah okay so uh first of all

the absolutely the best decision I could

have made because I allocated my

portfolio from a large exposure to money

losing companies

to highly pricing power Centric

companies uh that in my opinion have

such high free cash flow that even in a

recession we are going to be able to

avoid real valuation compression now

things will be volatile but I would have

lost way more money had I not sold in

January of 2022 and told everybody about

that transparently I mean twice as much

it would have been it would have been

extremely painful now again I'm not

saying it was perfect

but I did my best to get away from money

losing companies and that was the

absolutely the right decision now when

you talk about taxes

and I made this clear for me my tax

situation is different than other people

I had the opportunity to buy a plane for

13 million dollars which eradicated all

of my capital gains from selling real

estate income and stocks

thank you tax system and specifically

Donald Trump who in 2017 through the tax

cut and jobs act expanded the

accelerated depreciation to 100 for

planes

yeah so anyway okay uh then we've got

one more over here so we've got Barclays

it's a fair question uh

uh let's see here

uh 2022 saved you from losing so much

money on those small company yeah small

companies got wrecked I mean there's

some companies that went down you know

90 95 and these are companies that I

warned hey like you don't want to hold

these suckers in a recession now some

people get mad at me they're like you

you said that was a good stock I'm like

yeah unless we go into a recessionary

environment that was like

was pretty clear about that but that's

okay people want to have somebody to

blame and that's fine so Tesla investor

day master plan 3 leveraging Tesla DNA

to achieve Mass scale so I I don't want

to read every part of the Barclays one

here so we're just going to go to some

of the highlights Tesla's looking at a

balance of parallel and serial

production we talked about that uh I

thought this was interesting they talk

about demonstrating bench strength by by

showing all of these these 13 additional

people who generally don't show up on uh

on earnings calls so I thought that was

very interesting and we expect the

Mexico plant to use battery cells

produced in Austin to make sure they

achieve a full tax credits from the

inflation reduction act now this was

also interesting they talk about

potential upside on deliveries they talk

about the idea that Tesla actually

produced 277 000 approximately units

through q1 2023 so far and that's about

two-thirds of their 20 their q1 estimate

of 423 vehicles and that suggests a

modest ahead of estimate scale although

we are kind of like two-thirds through

the season so but anyway they say that's

because of the production impacts from

the Chinese New Year and the slowdown in

January could actually mean they'll end

up beating production estimates for q1

good to know that's a little bullish on

q1 earnings right there uh limited color

provided on financials was disappointing

for some optimistic tone about uh about

uh raw materials yeah and I think that's

really a big big argument there is that

Tesla's not terribly worried about uh

you know this uh this the the future of

availability of lithium and otherwise

thinks uh they'll end up uh they'll end

up being just fine essentially on the

Commodities Factor so I think that's

quite fascinating uh and quite useful so

I think that gives us sort of a a deep

dive clarification and summary from not

only institutions but also for me on

Tesla I could not be more bullish until

I've shown my price targets for Tesla

plenty of times I'm looking at well over

500 in that 500 to 600 range you could

say 525 to keep it simple for 2025. I

think it's a phenomenal investment uh

going forward obviously that's not

personalized Financial advice I am a

licensed financial advisor I run an

actively managed ETF I you know I I have

a real estate startup I do a lot of

crazy things uh that you know look crazy

now but I think we're going to be

awesome in the long term but um yeah I

mean I'm a big fan so I I want to make

that as clear as possible