Why the Selloff is WORSENING | Stocks & Crypto.

well this is a disaster the market just

hit its worst 3 days for Bitcoin since

2022 and we just had the largest

outflows in Bitcoin ETFs ever well I

mean Bitcoin ETFs haven't really been

around that long but largest outflows

anyway nonetheless in this last 3-day

period leveraged ETFs which have also

been really popular over the last couple

years because well the Market's

basically been straight up so your two

and 3X you know qqq's or or a micro

strategy those have been really popular

with the exception of the last few weeks

where now all of a sudden there are

massive outflows and as we say when

you're leveraged in you get to leverage

on that upside and you get all those

sweet gains but boy it's a rapid slap in

the face on the

downside this is also what we've just

seen the worst 5-day move in 2 years for

artificial intelligence software which

you know does come right after in

earnings which we'll also talk about in

this video but not after we hit some

other facts and details about what's

actually going on and why all this crap

is happening uh We've also seen the

greed and fear index drop to the extreme

fear category Market momentum extreme

fear stock price strength extreme fear

like new highs it's extreme fear levels

stock price bread the number of stocks

going up versus down extreme fear puts

and calls how many people are buying

puts vers puts versus calls extreme fear

Market volatility it's actually neutral

which is kind of a bad thing I'll

explain that briefly in just a moment

Safe Haven demand and junk bond demand

both also an extreme fear why is it bad

that market volatility being neutral is

potentially bad well when everything

else is an extreme Feer and Market

volatility is actually neutral it means

we actually haven't had a vol Spike yet

so what happens when a poopy doopy

really hits the fan and you actually get

a volatility Spike on top of already

extremely bearish sentiment in the short

term well it could be a really sweet

additional buying opportunity well I

guess it depends sort of what side of

the fence you're on I'm not the biggest

fan right now of of of the looking for

the buying Ops but we'll talk about that

in just a moment so this morning in the

meet Kevin Alpha report I'm going to

read you a little note that I made

because I I thought it was pretty useful

to look at so this morning uh I at the

bottom of my note as I always like to

say I go like even if I if if I think

something's going to go up I'll say

here's here's what I think uh but on the

flip side here's another thing that

could happen and here are the signals to

watch for so for example I might say

something like hey you know if right

after the opening bell things sell off

here's what that could mean well here's

what I wrote uh this morning that said

if markets sell down today because mind

you after Nvidia earnings Futures this

morning were green all morning uh if

markets sell down today that would be

odd especially after the Nvidia earnings

Catalyst that sort of negative catalyst

is over right a large potentially

negative Catalyst has been removed as

mostly benign that is NVIDIA right if

Nvidia missed it'd be even worse uh so

that said retail has been buying the

pre-market dip and if

institutions sell the rip at the open

this could be a pooper duper why because

if institutions sell off at open it

likely means retail could start to

paperhand as well take the bounce and

get out before more Red Data some might

think on the day in other words get your

little bounce in the morning and get out

if you're trading for the day and then I

wrote I think the scenario could play

out as a bad Omen in other words if this

scenario occurs we might end up with a

bad Omen for the market so let me show

that to you graphically uh and know it's

a little tough when I'm mobile here

Florida hey but Florida looks nice

doesn't it I mean it looks beautiful out

there uh anyway so here's our pre-market

right pre-market we the dip gets bought

pre-market opens the dip gets bought the

dip buyers are in this is usually retail

in the pre-market institutions ain't

awake yet okay they got to put their

suits on then what happens vomit I said

if we saw this it's a bad Omen then you

get a bounce there's your day trade

opportunity to get out okay what

happened after that well the bad Omen

continued so you see the Market's not

closed yet but it's still

plummeting why is this happening well

this is the first time in quite a while

that I've actually seen two

institutional pieces reference recession

again I have not seen headlines like

this mind you since August which is

about six coming up on S months ago the

headlines one and I'm going to go

through these pieces with you one of the

headlines this morning was a mini

stagflation shock or sorry quote mini

stagflation will end with a financial

shock that was from BCA

research excuse me and then Mizu wrote

is there a doge Le recession risk these

are the first two notes that I've gotten

from institutions about recession risks

frankly since August and the reason I

think that's important is because since

about SE setember we've had really

nothing but bullishness on institutional

pieces I read these almost every single

day and institutions have been calling

their clients going Trump's in or

getting in bye bye bye and basically

we've had this Max enthusiasm right uh

and this is one of the reasons why you

see the Cash Cow of Nvidia down as much

it is as it is today and I'm going to go

through these you know institutional

pieces we're going to talk about the

Japanese carry trade because that has

relevance here as well and then we'll

talk about the fed but I want you to

know this Nvidia beat the problem is and

we know this about Wall Street we know

this we knew this going into it it's not

a matter of is NVIDIA going to beat or

not we knew Nvidia was going to beat

because they always beat they was modest

in their expectations

but the amount at which they beat by was

minor and that's what we have to talk

about quick mention and I want to talk

to you about the amount of those beats

and how rare sort of low beat is uh and

then we're going to go into those

institutional pieces that are the first

mentions of recession and I want to show

you what they're referring to and what

they're seeing out there uh but I just

want to mention that yes tomorrow we're

going to have a substantial price

increase on the trumponomics course it's

going to be probably over

$250 and it's not going to go back down

I guarantee you if you join the

trumponomics course you will be locking

in your lowest price you go to

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that me Kevin report so go check that

out and me kevin.com okay so Nvidia had

its lowest beat since February of 2023

keep that in mind they only beat by

2.47% I was sitting watching this

computer when those Nvidia numbers came

out and I saw Nvidia beats estimates the

first thing I I thought is duh but by

how much I did the math only 2.47% on

beat on Q4 that's because some people

think that yeah maybe people went for

Blackwell chips but maybe they went for

the lesser of the versions which is why

networking missed gaming missed and

overall Revenue only beat by 2.4% 2.47%

to be exact then q1 guide look they're

they're money makers okay this company

prints cash but Wall Street is greedy

okay fundamentally this company is a

freaking money printer you can't bet

against this company but why does it go

down cuz Wall Street greed wants more so

what do we have q1

Revenue expectation of 43 billion versus

the 42.3 expected usually we beat That

by 7 to 10% what did we do here we only

Beat It by

1.65% oh my gosh small beat that's not

like long term I I look at this like oh

man Nidia knows how to make money this

is so cool they're the greatest cash cow

ever this is such a brilliant company

they're so rich they've got so much

money so much cash flow they're

designers they don't even have to deal

with manufacturing BS they just milk

margins off their software basically and

their designs it's really incredible but

Wall Street looks and goes H well the

last five quarters of Beats were 21% 12%

8% 6% 5% you know this is the lowest

beat since November of 2022 y'all must

be slowing down well true if you only be

by 1.65 maybe next time it's a match and

then the next time after that it's a

miss and then all of a sudden that

hopium that enthusiasm of this

NeverEnding growth cycle for AI fad look

I'm not here to be a bear on ai ai is a

fantastic Innovation I'm here to say I'm

personally bearish on the overhyping and

the overe expectations that people have

people have this expectation that that

yes look AI is great we can all agree on

that but they have there expectation

that's going to cure cancer tomorrow and

and and and that llms aren't plateauing

that they're somehow still like

exploding in in their capabilities and

yes there's growth in the capabilities

but it's not explosive uh and this is I

think why you've got Jensen juang going

well you know future reasoning models

are going to have 100x compute of the

first generation AI models okay so

Jensen now in order for you to make this

large claim you have to compare back to

like old 2022 versions of AI and compare

them to Future versions like it's kind

of like oh let's compare the iPhone you

know 19 in the future the iPhone 20 in

the future to the iPhone 12 you know of

course it's going to I mean and and

apple does that say it's a marketing

thing I'm just saying you got to look

through that so what about

these institutional pieces so what

happened here well this this adds adds

Fury to all of this insult to injury to

all of this so first BCA research

suggests we are staring down the barrel

of quote a mini

stagflation or you know event until we

hit a deflationary shock now they say

the timing of this is unclear but I

personally given that I'm you know in in

flying school I think of this as like a

stall while you're coming in for a

landing and I've made this analogy

before but I kind of think of it as like

you're coming in for your Landing you're

slow cuz you're coming in to land you

know your landing gears out your flaps

are out whatever you're coming in and

then all of a sudden you know you get a

new instructor like somebody teleported

a new instructor in and that

instructor's name is Trump and he's like

nah get this up and you're like okay and

you pull up and and temporarily it's

like oh look we're climbing again but

bro that momentum that we had and the

drag we have of higher interest rates

this ain't good and then all of a sudden

stall stall and that's where we are

right now now what we could do is maybe

add some power back you know Grease the

economy a little bit add some power back

level off the pitch right and and get to

flying again but if we don't and instead

you got Trump going pull it back more I

don't know why he sounds like schwar all

of a sudden nobody knows pulling it back

and pulling it out better than I do pull

the power out I said pull the power out

pull it out right now you're like okay

and you got Elon Musk in the back seat

pull it more cut it all Let It crash

it's kind of like what you got in the

back it's like okay pull well what's

going to happen to the damn

plane it's going to stall you're going

to go straight down if you're close to

the ground for a landing or you're going

to go head over boom and then go

straight down

so that's that's my analogy for what's

going on here and so BCA research

doesn't make that analogy instead

obviously because my analogy they say

that structural inflation is preventing

the fed from cutting so in other words

we keep the dragon on our plane right

we're keeping that resistance pushing us

basically down to the ground it's kind

of like think about almost like interest

rates being high as your flaps on a

plane slow down baby get some more

Dragon we coming in for the landing I

like that anal ology too much I got to

get over it uh you know and then we've

got a lot of fuel in the tanks

especially this AI trade but what

happens when that AI trade that's

partially fueled by Japan starts fading

see uh what I thought was very

interesting is in the BCA research piece

what they actually talk about is the

Japanese carry trade not being anywhere

close to over in fact potentially the

Japanese carry trade might keep going uh

and it actually might still be adding

fuel to the fire see what they say here

I'll show it to you Japan's deeply

negative real uh rates scroll up here on

the other side because of course they

two-part it have inflated the AI bubble

therefore the normalization of Japanese

interest rates is a prime candidate to

burst in fact the Yen carry trade is

reflexive it needs a funding currency

with stably low or negative yields and a

destination investment with stably high

returns like AI so the bubble could

burst either if the stably low yield on

the Yen ends or the Euphoria around AI

stocks is shattered okay well this is

why we started by talking about Nvidia

people are starting to get the heebie

jeebies

about huh maybe it is not going to grow

at 50% compounded forever damn it it's

it's just going to you know make lots of

money but that's not good enough for us

on Wall Street we want more I hate that

so much man you know like I I hate

sounding bearish on AI because I I know

the companies are great companies like

you know Google Google and Amazon

met Apple I hate this lingering cough

something and uh in Nvidia these are

great companies but man you know that is

a potential problem where you've got

investors who've just gotten a little

carried away literally carry trade now

you might not understand completely how

the carry trade functions so I thought I

I would draw a a simplified explanation

for us I'm going to do my best here with

my little uh clever chart here okay all

right so so what do we got this is the

USD to the Japanese Yen okay when the US

dollar becomes more

powerful that's okay because think about

it let's pretend you're a Japanese

person okay so you're in

Japan you got savings you got 20 grand

in the bank in US Dollars and you're

like huh I could use this 20 grand to go

to my bank and borrow $40,000 of margin

you know reg te 50% margin requirements

in the US so now I have 40 Grand and

what am I going to do with that 40 Grand

of dollah Halas oh I'm going invest it

in Nvidia or or AI stocks and so now

you're investing 40 in the US while

you're borrowing at like 0% interest in

Japan very low the interest rates are

extremely low there they're trying to

get it up okay they've been trying to

get it up for a while it's finally

starting to you know pecker up a little

bit inflation uh and so anyway

some folks are concerned that as rates

move up in

Japan and the stock market falls in the

United States then more people might

sell the US dollar and buy the Japanese

Yen basically leading the Japanese yenta

dollar to go down okay so when the

mountain goes down it's bad okay down

Mountain down that's all you have to

remember USD to JPY when it go down bad

okay now see how rapidly it went down

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okay now see how rapidly it went down

over here yeah it peaked out right

around when the market peaked out in

America around July 10th that's when the

Japanese uh you know conversion peaked

out us to JPY peaked out then for about

3 weeks kept going kept going kept going

until August 4th that's when we had our

carry trade disaster that's when all of

a sudden people in Japan are like crap

I'm getting margin called because

American stocks peaked out on July 10th

and they've been going down for three

weeks now I'm getting margin called in

Japan now I have to sell the stocks and

the Japanese currency is is you know

basically uh when I sell my US Dollars

I'm getting less Japanese currency back

so that means I'm getting Less on the

stock that I speculated on and I'm

getting less back because the Japanese

currency uh uh you know basically

appreciated and I'm getting these

dollars back that are now worth less so

now I have to sell even more to pay off

my my margin debt and then you get

screwed and that's how you get the shock

of the Japanese carry trade that's why I

said at the beginning of the video it's

weird and it's a red flag that

volatility is still neutral on the greed

and fear index okay we have an ex had

that Vol Spike yet remember the Vol

Spike that we had August 4th was the

worst since Co that could happen again

not only and that's why they say there

could be mini stagnation and then

basically you know deflation now why do

they say stagnation well the reason they

say stagnation first is because of

Trump's tariffs which we'll talk about

Trump's tariffs in just a moment but

they talk about Trump's tariffs first

and then after they talk about Trump's

tariffs what do they do well they say oh

okay yeah well after the Trump tariffs

and we get

stagnation that is slow growth and

higher taxes from the stagnation then

the carry trade could hit and that's how

we end up saing crashing and going into

deflation that's not great it's also you

know the stall reference I think is very

appropriate because if you type this

into Google S&P PMI report look at the

last us PMI report and it literally says

the economy came close to it was either

stalling or stagnation it was one of

those but I actually I think it was it

was St stalling uh pretty sure it was

stalling so the reference yes another

pilot

anyway okay so that's BCA research we're

only halfway done with the institutional

reports then we got to talk tariffs but

understand what they're arguing is you

could end up getting stagnation from

tariffs which is bad that slows growth

and it increases that inflation

fear then that stagflation right

stagnation and inflation then the

Japanese carry trade really hits hard

this time except this time we won't have

economic data to bail us out like we did

right before the election along with a

lot of enthusiasm because the elections

already passed so election you know

pricing and election enthusiasm doesn't

happen so now all of a sudden you're

left with a crappy Market the carry

trade higher inflation the FED that

hasn't cut yet a market that's falling

and no Catal for big enthusiasm and

layoffs it's a recipe for a market crash

uh and and quite frankly a recession and

this is why BCA literally in their piece

here says to sum it up the US and the UK

is staring down the barrel that doesn't

sound good is staring down the barrel of

mini stagflation until a deflationary

shock okay that's not good uh

potentially emanating from Japan okay

now the whole deflationary shock thing

is actually exactly what I think is

going to happen I don't know when it's

going to happen but I you know me and I

don't want to be redundant about it but

I personally think that's exactly what's

going to happen you know the argument

Supply chains have gotten so loose and

so overbuilt that companies will do

anything to get business again so what

are they going to do they're going to

lower their prices this is what happens

when PP Fades okay businesses take it in

the margin they lay off people they

reduce prices and they try to get things

going again the layoffs are around the

corner I'm tired of all the people on on

you know CNBC going but

Kevin jobs jobs are fine right

now did you see the unemployment claims

this morning coming in like 20K higher

than expected that's just the start as

soon as that number goes bad it's

over usually the markets already Rock

Bottom when unemployment claims peek out

I'm just saying uh now I know I've been

early on this okay I hear it all the

time okay every single day my wife she's

like Kevin you're early again and I'm

like I I know I know I know pp's going

down inflation is going to go down it's

just a matter of time she's like you're

early anyway so then then we have the

next piece what is this one Doge Le

recession risk now I know this is going

to come across as like a big anti- Elon

thing but it's really not they say the

market is focused on negative economic

Fallout from the feral Federal federal

spending cuts but it's not just the

federal spending cuts it's what they

call the Ricochet effects the Quasi

public sector uh that relies on sort of

the contracts from the government that

could end up creating new economic

headwinds unemployment blah blah blah

now see they don't actually suggest a

stagflation issue they go straight to

deflation they say we are Far Cry from

any Trend in Rising inflation we remain

confident that the disinflationary

process is intact more so with the FED

on hold now we have to analyze Trump 2.0

what do we get to get with growth

headwinds the FED will be able to get

off pause easing and get back to easing

once disinflation resumes which they

think it will now where's the poopy dupy

well the poopy dupy is growth headwinds

are mounting and they say that investors

should start

accumulating duration which is basically

like TLT okay I'm I'm full transparency

I'm like long TLT okay like I think it

is the the it is gonna be the best trade

of

2025 I've been saying it for a long time

though so my timing hasn't been exactly

perfect on it uh but anyway

so they talk about this you know

interesting effect uh where the

government has basically been a strong

contributor to growth since uh the third

quarter of 2022 especially with health

care and government jobs now this is

obvious because you know we were coming

out of a hole back then and we the hole

would probably been deep or had it not

been for the government doing all the

hiring I'm not a shill for government

spending they actually agree with that

they're like that's the Keynesian

approach you know you bought them out

earlier but you you're better off in

their opinion and I agree with this as

well having more tax cuts even if the

hole is a little deeper you'll come out

stronger so in other words they're kind

of planting the seeds here that you know

hey it's it's the bid administration's

fault for over hiring because the

government is inefficient you know it

just leads to what they call the

ricardian equivalence where the private

sector saves the corresponding deficit

increase of the

government okay I'll you can rewind 20

seconds to digest that one it it was

actually a pretty interesting argument

if you think about it okay government

spends an extra billion bucks businesses

save an extra billion bucks because of

all the extra

regulation anyway uh but the government

is so wasteful that usually the velocity

of money at the government is is a

magnitude higher than private sector

spending anyway just because there's so

much waste Trump has a logic to

frontloading economic pain via tariffs

and Doge which sets up the FED to resume

easing and making for a strong recovery

in

2026 uh however that does mean we could

end up triggering a

recession by the end of 2025 I want you

to see that we already saw treasury

secretary bessent suggest that the

private sector is already in recession

but they say that there is a real risk

that the US will enter a short-lived

recession in late 2025 well this is the

first time I've seen this kind of talk

in a while January 2026 call options TL

L anyone anyway oh I'm not done with

that laptop so

now now # not personalized Financial

advice and if you want more not

personalized Financial advice make sure

to check out the courses over at me

kevin.com I'm sorry it sound like I'm

chilling that hard but I'm serious we're

going to have a really big price

increase tomorrow and and and it's it's

not going to come back down like you are

guaranteed the lowest price so i' I'd

rather make it Crystal Clear uh and you

know I know I'm going to get the

comments like yeah Kevin stealing his

stuff again like well I mean a that's

part of my job uh and B I'm trying to

keep it short and sweet for y'all okay

so now that we've considered this we

have to look at some other issues that

we face as well so we got the BCA

research piece out of the way we got the

V vomit out of the way we got Nvidia out

of the way oh yeah Trump and the tariffs

so you know now Donald Trump is well

he's also expecting to start a

fast-paced program to remove transgender

military members from from the military

that's going to be interesting it'll be

like a witch hunt for Trans you're

transgender get him out honorable

discharges apparently uh but anyway uh

Donald Trump said today we don't like

the way the EU is treating our companies

he slams the EU Apple decision probably

because he talked to Tim Cook you know

remember that's what happened the last

time is is he had conversations with

with good old Timmy cook and uh uh and

then Donald Trump goes and does the

bidding for Apple if they promise big

Investments which I guess that's that's

the whole point of of the office anyway

uh is is to you know try to work for for

your American company so I'm a big fan

of that however I'm a little concerned

about this China tariffs will be an

additional 10% okay well we already

announced 10% so an additional 10% would

be 10 + 10 equal

20 and then we're getting a March 4th

date for Canada and

Mexico Donald Trump also says the deal

is not done yet on

Ukraine and uh you know it looks like

zilin is coming down Friday to sign a

mineral

agreement uh which that'll be

interesting to see if we can get closer

on ending the war there uh we talked

about the carry trade we talked about

Nvidia ah the FED Mr oh yeah okay well

here we go uh fed fed hammock spoke

today and said that we're likely to hold

rates steady for some time okay this is

old news we've already talked about how

the Federal Reserve is basically in this

do nothing nothing no forecast

mentality which is also weird I just

want to be clear about that the Federal

Reserve has

always been

forecasting what their opinion is if

taking transitory it's just going to be

a bub one month doesn't make a trend one

quarter doesn't make a trend uh we're

going to well you know we're not going

to pay attention to tariffs until they

hit just kidding we're going to pay

attention to tariffs just just kidding

we're not going to pay attention to

darus like they're famous for giving you

their opinion on what's going to

happen you remember in 2022 if I were a

first time hope bu i' i' consider

waiting right now says dropa I mean you

know me I study this guy like like I'm

in love with him or something like that

I'm not okay I got a wife and seven kids

and I'm happily married so but this idea

that hammock says we're going to hold

rates City for some time they're not

giving us any guidance beyond that

there's no opinion it's just yeah things

are good right now we're holding rates

and when they shut up about the future

is because they're concerned that's my

take they're concerned that some poopy

could hit the fan quickly as if they if

the FED right now understand the

psychology if Jerome Powell came out

tomorrow and said hey guys

hit the

fan it would instantly hit the

fan like there's a no way he could be

honest with you about the downside

because then everybody would say is your

damn fault you scared

everyone uh but you know they do say

things like oh you know valuations are a

little stretched right now but uh you

comish you fine you we're just going to

hold ra for a while okay buddy uh then

uh so the fed that's why they're at the

pretty much near the end of the video

here uh on Tesla okay obviously a lot of

drama around Tesla Tesla's applied for a

California Transportation permit that's

cool but at the same time they're also

getting hit with lawsuits from Hardware

3 owners one of the reasons they're

getting hit with these lawsuits is

because they promised that if you bought

full self-driving that you'd actually in

the future be able to have full self

driving but it doesn't look like

Hardware 3 is going to be capable and it

looks like you're going to have to get a

hardware 4 upgrade which if you listen

to last earnings call Elon Musk

basically admitted to this which is

probably bad for whole lawsuit aspect

but he's like uh it's probably a good

thing that not a lot of people bought

the FSD package uh cuz we're probably

going to have to upgrade them to hard

War 4 so he basically just handed them a

win on that lawsuit anyway so I thought

that was interesting but I don't know

maybe he's just being honest about that

uh which that's

respectable uh however he's also Mega

pissed about the New York Times calling

them a-holes for identifying for

exposing 45 identities tied to Doge and

so this is leading to a lot of people

saying hey you're risking those people's

lives New York times how could you dare

expose those people I hate you New York

Times why don't you expose your writers

your authors and they actually do cuz

all the author names are listed on the

same page but a response that's gaining

popularity below that uh was actually

this one sorry do you think government

workers should be able to operate

completely anonymously and in secret

kind of like a deep

State interesting counter interesting

so the problem with with Tesla right now

and and you have to know this about

Tesla and I like I you know me I love

the Tesla company I love the people I

love the product I had a Tesla Model uh

a Tesla Roadster from from 2009 I had

the I I still have my my black model X

you know my black X I love riding my

black X right now my dad's riding my

black x uh now my wife's driving uh my

my Model S and I'm driving the Cyber

truck I don't know you know I could come

back and going to be all graffitied

after all this drama that's been going

on but uh you know I don't think that

it's right for people to take out their

their angers over Elon Musk uh musk

sitting in on cabinet meetings and

commenting about being tech support on

Tesla owners I think the people of Tesla

are good I think Optimus style robots

are the future I think uh you know

Amazon and meta and symbotic all these

robotics or these these large companies

will will continue to get into robotics

if they're not already in robotics

they'll get into robotics humanoid

robotics are a future my VC fund has

invested into a private uh robotics

company uh so I'm a big fan of where

we're going with Tesla but we do know

the valuation is Rich you know we just

did another valuation update on Tesla

and the course member live stream and

we're still over a three peg you know

that's with like a 35% growth rate so

the valuation is Rich on EPS because you

know we know we're not going to sell

more cars right now and keep in mind too

I want you to do this this is another

one that I thought was interesting if

you look at like just cars in general

right now you could go to trends.

goole.com and you just look at car

trends for byy car or like cars for sale

there is like a systemic decline in

searches for cars for sale now that

theoretically could be because maybe

people are using apps or whatever or

it's just the interest rates are really

really high and it's becoming more

affordable but you could see that drop

off there okay that's that's odd you

know we are now lower than where we have

been since 2010 in people searching cars

for sale what I also thought was

interesting was if you look at uh leas

Tesla uh lease Tesla is almost as high

as by

Tesla uh and you know I can't remember

what it was I looked at it up I looked

oh yeah yeah yeah yeah there it is okay

lease Tesla by Tesla there we go so now

In fairness buy Tesla could also be like

buy Tesla stock but I thought it was

interesting that searches for leases

have almost eclipsed by

Tesla so that's interesting because to

me that that signifies a bit of an

affordability challenge when when people

start saying hey we are in a place of we

need to

lease uh and and and then

you know start kind of like watching our

outflows because we don't we can't

afford the financing because of rates

even though rates are built into the

lease financing uh we can't we maybe we

can't afford the payment maybe we don't

have the credit maybe all we can do is a

three-year lease that's it we can't we

can't set up for the whole longer term

buy I don't know but I thought that was

interesting so overall uh I also want to

remind you that we are

still uh a little chunk away from real

stress in the economy I want you to know

what real stress in the economy looks

like the 10-year treasury right now is

4.28 the 2-year treasury right now is at

4.07 4 so that's about a 20 basis points

difference that's

nothing when that breaks the 50 to 90

range and all of a sudden we get a bad

data set this is how it's going to go

okay I I I'm just going to play you

straight you could go to cnbc.com and

look at it okay you just type it in 10

year and two year my take is you're

going to see some data shock that hits

or another carry trade or whatever the

2-year will plummet possibly a whole

percent down to 3% let's say the 10year

will plummet down to like 36 you know

3.6 or whatever uh and that could keep

going you could see the two-year at at

2% or 1% and then the tenure at 2% or

whatever when the spread between the two

gets above

50 that's usually the sign of being

closer to a

recession so it's not the unversioned

the yield curve that matters and it's

not the wiggling that we've been doing

above the uninverted point it's breaking

the 50 through a sudden Spike up

volatility Spike some kind of shock so

just the other day I also I sent an

email a Daily Wealth email which has

been anything but daily lately I'm I'm

sorry I'm just a little buried right now

because we got a big big announcement

coming up for house hack it's it's

really exciting uh but I sent an email

the other day and I basically

said consider taking something off the

table you know this was a couple days

ago and it wasn't a way of saying like

oh you need to be a mega bear or like oh

you know sell everything that's that's

not what I'm trying to say I've been a

bear I have been but I'm not trying to

like get people to panic I don't care it

doesn't it's not like I'm short anything

where it matters like not trying to get

some financial gain out of saying this

but let me just put it this way I wish

there were more people that would grab

you by the shoulders when you're really

up on a stock that would grab you by the

shoulders kind of like what I did with

that Dogecoin millionaire guy I wish

there were more people who would grab

people like that by the shoulders and

say please take some money off the table

and just protect your downside that's it

I'm not asking you to like sell out of

everything I'm not trying to give you

personalized Financial advice I'm just

trying to say hey

man consider taking some of the dollah

hallas off just to protect your downside

make it so that if the market does go

into a recession you're still safe

you're still protected like I'll give

you an example I you know what I told

the Dogecoin millionaire guy was back

when I he had a lot of money in Doge I'm

like dude just take some of it and make

it so you never have to work again and

just put it aside even if you just put

it aside in cash and I know it's painful

because it's like oh but it could go up

more yeah but it could also go down and

you don't want to go back to having to

start over

so I just wish there were more people

that were willing to say that I do

recognize though that's very unpopular

to say on social media uh it's I think

it's one of the reasons why probably you

know like my my channel doesn't get like

the craziest amount of subscriber growth

or whatever I think in part be because

it's it's less of hey let's be blind and

assume that markets are going to go up

forever and just bye bye

bye I'm not a fan of that I'm much more

of a fan of let's be realistic yes AI is

good yeah there's data center growth but

we realize it's not going to grow at

100% forever let's be measured in our

valuations hey if we miss some upside

that's okay remember Warren Buffett for

moment Warren Buffett doesn't play

options Warren Buffett doesn't care

about fomo he invests in good quality

companies at Great

valuations and then he waits and the

patience of Buffett was amazing we think

about this Buffett Buffett was worth

like a million bucks when he was 30

which which is a lot already right

but he wasn't worth a 100 Mil until like

15 years later and and and then you know

certainly billions until he was even

much older than that now I'm not trying

to make a comparison here to to Buffett

uh but to say like oh you know

everybody's going to be a billionaire

like Buffett no I mean we we don't need

to try to all go for that because then

everybody's going to go busted right

like 99.9% of people are going to go

bust and that's a going bust is a much

more miserable life than having a good

life right so the point of that is

Buffett didn't take his million bucks

and YOLO it all sure he could have

become a billionaire by 35 instead of

when he did and his you know in in his

50s but he could have also gone to zero

and then had nothing to compound so just

be cautious just a word maybe of of

wisdom and call it not from me call it

from Buffett check out the courses of me

kevin.com love you all see you soon