prepare

This is going to be one hell of a crazy

week of catalysts. There are two types

of catalysts we've got to pay attention

to this week. Number one, we already

know it. Jobs. Number two, Donn markets

right now enthusiastic because Donald

Trump is going to meet with Democrats.

The meeting is supposed to hold or take

place at noon California time, which

means the market will really be closed

before we actually get updates from

Trump. However, this creates a

short-term risk factor because if Donald

Trump sandbags this meeting, we'll hear

about it after the market is closed. I

expect markets to temporarily sell off

because the likelihood of a government

shutdown occurring will skyrocket if

this meeting goes poorly. Now, there are

two ways for Trump to go here. One way

Donald Trump can go is Donald Trump

could say, "Hey, you know, we're going

to

uh or we had a great negotiation.

Uh we've got, you know, a framework of a

deal. We're just waiting on signatures."

Markets will probably rocket on that.

People will love that. The other way

it'll go, which I actually think is more

likely, is Donald Trump will come out

and say something like, "Well, I tried

to meet him, but the Democrats, all they

want to do is spend, spend, spend. It's

like Russia, Russia, Russia. That's all

they want to do." And so, you'll get

some kind of bashing of the Dems. And

tomorrow is the last day of September.

Government shutdown is set for midnight.

tomorrow night, which would be October

1st at midnight. So, if we get bad news

in the second half of the day today,

that's going to get priced into markets

tomorrow and will probably be down until

the government shutdown is resolved.

Now, usually government shutdowns are a

fantastic buy the dip opportunity.

Notice that we have about a 63% chance

of a shutdown priced in on Poly Market

by October 1st. that rises to about 75%

if you uh yeah if you go look at the

whole year.

The bigger issue though, what matters so

much more is actually what the Treasury

market is paying attention to this week.

If you think about a government

shutdown, you should be thinking, "Oh,

well, you know, our debt expense is

going to go up. That's going to be bad

for bonds, right?" Yeah. But then why

are bonds up today? Mind you, bond

yields trade in inverse to their price.

So when bond yields are down, bond

values are up, right? Okay, you know

that. So anyway, bond yields down today.

Why are they down today? In my opinion,

it has to do with the most critical

second catalyst,

jobs.

Okay, this is this is absolutely

everything we're talking about. We

talked about this in the alpha report

this morning. We talked about it in the

alpha report last week. We'll be

strategizing and playing AB scenarios

with course members uh tomorrow

especially because that'll be the eve of

ADP and we'll do that again on Thursday

on the eve of the BLS data. But here are

the catalysts that you got to pay

attention to. So tomorrow we are going

to get Jolts at uh 7 a.m. So the market

will be open. We'll get Jolts data.

Usually this is a nothing burger. This

is the job opening labor turnover

survey. Usually a nothing burger. We're

looking at 7.2 2 million jobs which is

roughly in line with the 7181 we got

previously nothing burger not a big deal

not worried at all about jolts really

again the biggest catalyst over the next

24 hours is just what happens with with

Trump in this meeting I gave my opinion

in the course member liveream uh but uh

you know you know which way it's going

to break so keep in mind and and just

briefly if you did not see the

Washington Post piece last week it gives

you the Donald Trump vault playbook. The

Donald Trump vault playbook is, hey, we

want to shrink the size of government.

And this is where a lot of Americans

look and go, yeah, I mean, that's what I

voted for. I want smaller government. I

don't want, you know, more big

government. I like, you know, I had my

mastermind this weekend and uh Ross

Gerber was so generous to to come visit

uh and let us host it at his office.

Shout out, Ross. Thank you. Um,

you know, he had had such a like there

was one moment where he's like,

"Remember what Donald Trump's POV is?

Fire all the IRS agents. Donald Trump is

sick of getting audited and so are a lot

of wealthier Americans. So you go start

firing the IRS agents. That's part of

the MO of the Trump admin.

So in my opinion, that increases the

odds of a government shutdown, right?

That moves then the catalyst to can the

job market save us? And there's a trend

that we're on obviously that you know

about not only the six-month unemployed

data or some of the longerterm issues,

but there's a trend in the actual data

that we're going to be getting this week

as well. So, let's talk about that. Uh,

mind you, uh, as this this happens

frequently, but this weekend, I think I

got like four emails of people that are

like, "Kevin, I'm trying to sign up for

the course, but but I can't. it it it

says the price is like, you know, uh

like many thousands of dollars or

whatever. And I'm like, "Yeah, the

coupon expired." And so I was getting so

many emails. I'm like, "All right." So I

just briefly extended it. This happens

every single time it feels like when

there's an expiration, but like I need

to change the price and I need to raise

it. So we'll do that. But right now, I

did extend daddy's back a little bit. Uh

but there was actually one person they

emailed. They're like, "I I can't sign

up. The price isn't matched." And then

they emailed they got like an automatic

reply. Hey, you left something in your

cart and they replied back to that and

they're like, "Dude, I know. I'm I'm

trying to get the coupon." And I'm like,

"Bro, it expired." They're like,

"Anyway, I felt bad." So, I extended for

them. Um, but anyway, okay. So, here's

the the data. Okay. Uh, so ADP October

1st, this is Wednesday. This is

technically first day of government

shutdown. I think it's going to happen.

uh first day of government shutdown and

uh we're looking at 50,000 for ADP. This

is actually roughly in line with what we

had last time. We had 54,000 last time.

So 54,000 or 50,000. This is good. If we

could get that on the private survey,

hey, that's fantastic. I'm a big fan. Uh

that would be wonderful. No, no big

issues here. Uh I don't know that ADP is

going to be our weakness this week.

Something that you could do, and this is

a spoiler, if you want to have an idea

of how the job numbers are going to come

out this week, you need to watch what

Donald Trump truths. I think Donald

Trump gets heads up insight into the job

numbers. And usually when the numbers

are going to be bad, Donald Trump starts

bitching about it before the numbers

actually come out. I'll obviously be

covering the numbers live and

everything, but but that like that's my

assumption. So, uh, then, uh, what we

have, you know, that's the private labor

report. If that rolls over, it's a

really big issue because it's our

private survey. It comes from an actual

payrolls company. And if that rolls

over, it's going to be weird because,

you know, last month we we popped back

up and we're waiting for this job data

to really confirm a soft landing. This

to me this is a big moment because our

jobs trends have been reset way low and

we are like the trend has basically done

this beep. We're only creating 29,000

BLS jobs on average over the last 3

months. That's horrible. Over the last 4

months I think we're at like 35k.

Horrible. As JPAL says we're below the

break even rate. It's a bad trend. The

question is, did we just adjust down

because of immigration and now we're

going to kind of go flat and kind of

ride up again? This week is a huge

moment to tell us

is the fall stopping. It's not to to

guarantee soft landings in the bag,

everything's fine. It's to to give us

faith that the crash of jobs is

stopping. That's why this week is so

critical. Now the BLS jobs data uh that

we actually get on Friday which before

that will get the ISMs we'll get ISM

manufacturing prices paid new orders on

Wednesday uh you know big deal people

take that for for what it's worth.

You've got uh initial jobless claims

expecting to be relatively benign again

225 uh you know this has been what

jobless claims have been for a very very

long period of time. Wow. Hold on a sec.

I just saw Robin Hood absolutely

crushing it here. Up 7% today. Really

incredible enthusiasm here. I mean,

honestly, a lot of their sports betting

stuff hasn't even been priced in. We

actually did a bit of a fundamental

analysis on Robin Hood this morning. Uh

we have a uh we have a tab in the um in

the course member stream. You can't see

these tabs unless you're a course

member, but we have a a new stock tab

and and we put our fundamental analysis

on here. Uh, and this goes down and I

link my research and all this sort of

stuff, but uh, it automatically shows

you like the price and and Kevin's peg

ratio. So like where Kevin thinks the

peg is going versus like a public market

peg. It's kind of a cool new feature we

added for course members. And so like

every day as we're doing fundamental

analysis, we're adding to it. It's it's

so cool. Uh, I love technology. I always

just nerd out over it. Anyway, uh, about

the BLS data. So BLS we are looking for

a Friday payrolls report of 50,000. Now

remember the prior read was 22,000. Now

we're looking at 50,000. Let's see how

many surveys we have on that. We have uh

58 estimates. So this is a pretty big

survey right now. We have 58 estimates.

The lowest estimate is -20,000. There is

only one economist that thinks we're

going to go negative. Only one. So this

this explains why the market is moving

the way it is. The vast majority of

banks and institutions think we are

going to get a positive labor report. So

the odds of us getting based on number

of economists, the odds of us getting a

negative labor report very very low.

Like it's not going to happen. I'll show

you the standard deviation chart here in

a moment. standard deviation is set to

come in at 23.39.

Okay, so we're looking at an average

estimate of 55.4

minus 23.39, which means even if we had

a miss of two standard deviations,

which you know puts us at what like a 5%

chance or whatever uh or or to one side

would be I guess be a 2 and a halfish

percent chance off the top of my head

here. Um you know 2 and 12% chance I

guess of missing two standard

deviations. Well, yeah. I mean, I guess

you missed two standard deviations

either way. So, call it a 5% chance of

that of missing by two standard

deviations. You're still positive. So,

the the trade this week is going to be

around are people's expectations going

to be right or wrong that we're going to

be so positive. This is the distribution

of estimates. I'm actually covering up

the one guy who's so negative. Look at

this. There's the one guy that's like

super negative over here. And as you can

see, almost all of the estimates are

that we're going to get a rebound.

There's our average right here. This is

the median right here. And you can see

there are a lot of estimates here.

75,000, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100, 110. Like

the base case here from markets, I'm

going to close the store. Base case for

markets is we are going up with jobs.

And so think about what that means for a

moment. That means one of the reasons

why we're seeing market as much market

enthusiasm as we are right now is

because the bankers and the economists

are like, "No, you don't need to be

worried. Everything is fine." Uh so

let's write that down. Uh let's go pop

that into here. So um consensus is

rebound.

uh and a beat above the 3-month average

of 29K and beat above 4mon average of

about 35K. Right? So this is very very

clear like the the you know the up this

means it's probably already to some

extent we already been priced uh suggest

to some extent some of this uh

enthusiasm is already priced in. What's

really not priced in here

is a miss uh to the downside

uh broadly

markets enthused except for this one guy

over here. That one guy, one person.

Uh all right. Well, I I mean they should

buy some lottery tickets if they're

right. But um yeah, I mean that's that's

this week. This is a critical critical

week. more so than last week. Last week

was like we got a little bit of Fedsp

speak and honestly we had nothing around

that Fed speak. This is huge. Uh in

addition, we'll get S&P numbers on the

third. We'll get ISM services on the 3.

Uh but this is jobs week hands down. You

will get challenger job cuts on uh

Thursday. Challenger job cuts. Nobody

pays attention to that. Like nobody

cares. So, tomorrow Jolts ADP Wednesday,

Challenger Thursday, jobs Friday. Mix

into that some S&P, you know, uh um ISM

numbers and PMI numbers and yay,

that's the week. But boy, looking at

that chart, seeing the consensus of

pricing, dang. I can actually throw off

the caddies, I think. Yeah, there we go.

Uh look at this. Jolts. What is that?

Uh, Jolt

job openings. Yep. That gives you the

job openings number 80P 50K. Yep. ISM.

Whatever. Jobless claims 223. Whatever.

50 right here on non-farm payrolls. I

mean, that's cute. Cute little catalyst

window we can kind of throw up uh while

we're we're doing vids. So, yeah. I

mean, this is this is a big deal this

week. I get it. There's a lot of there's

a lot of enthusiasm in part because look

at what the consensus is now. One of the

ones that's really winning today is is

Nvidia in addition to Robin Hood. Uh

Robin Hood is just absolutely dominating

right now. You know, valuations

obviously stretch, but people are so

excited about the products and I

actually think I don't want to get too

much into what we talked about with the

alphabet this morning, but let's just

put it this way. Some of the new stuff

they have coming hasn't shown up in the

earnings reports yet.

just saying it's uh that's that's when

we do our fundamental analysis. We go

into the the actual financial statements

and we're like, "Oh, this is still

coming." But anyway, Nvidia really

popping off here.

Nvidia you have to think of as your boom

time stock. It's one of the reasons I

haven't personally sold off my Nvidia

shares. I have a ton of Nvidia shares

and uh what's really remark and I bought

these back in like September my

statement says September of 2022

and we sent out a you know course member

alert for that back then. Uh, of course,

and I'm going to send an alert when I

sell Nvidia, but like I'm a I feel like

I'm a hair trigger on selling Nvidia

because, you know, if we go into a

recession, Nvidia is going to tank and I

got so many freaking tendies. I want the

tendies, you know? I want the chicken

tenders. I want to have some food.

But, uh, Nvidia is is kind of a call

option on the boom continuing. Think

about that phrase there for a moment.

Nvidia as a call option on American GDP.

They're the most insane pricing power

business you could ever think of,

bringing over 50% to the bottom line. 72

cents of every dollar is gross profit,

bro. Like, they don't even make the damn

chips, dude.

They're kind of just like like if I

could summarize Nvidia to my child.

Okay, if I asked Jack, maybe next time I

ask him, I go, "Jack, what do you think

Nvidia does?" He'd be like, "Oh, they

make really good uh, you know, uh,

graphic cards." And I'd be like, "Wrong.

You have to match your subject to your

verb." Who knows what that's from. No.

Um, what they're really like is kind of

like this.

Oh, you guys need graphic cards. All

right, hold on.

Hey, Taiwan, we need graphic cards. Ship

them over.

They get shipped over. We got your

graphic cards. Here you go. And the

other people are like, "Ah, thanks." And

Nvidia's like, "I'll take 50% to the

bottom line. Thank you very much." Like,

dude, that's that's insane pricing

power. Now obviously I'm being a little

facicious here because we have an

incredible software infrastructure

around these chips. CUDA, we have

incredible I think Nvidia is an ADAS

play, right? Like I think they're the

next Tesla FSD play. You Tesla obviously

has the robo taxi and Elon factor. Uh

but uh ADAS at Nvidia is a huge play

that is really not priced in at all. Uh,

and then of course, you know, again, I'm

not trying to minimize what Nvidia does,

but they don't make the chips. So, um,

it's really incredible. And, and to me,

that's that's your upside hedge is

Nvidia. And your downside hedge to some

extent are stocks that should do well in

a lower interest rate regime. Uh, and,

you know, is something that you're

trying to play out over the next 10

years. So that's why we have 10 stocks

to buy in the next 10 years. Not as like

a personal advice thing, but as a way to

say like, hey, look, I'm going to hold

on to these upside hedges like Nvidia

for now. But, you know, do I really want

to buy Nvidia now? I don't know.

Probably want to buy others just in case

jobs roll over. Uh, but maybe not. I I

really hope that this week jobs do not

roll over because jobs rolling over are

going to be so painful uh for people and

and nobody is prepared to lose their job

in my opinion. You know, people are

throwing money into the stock market at

margin. Margin is at mega all-time

highs, way surpassing the 2021 cap. And

mind you, not only are we passing margin

levels that we saw in 2021,

we're not even counting the debt that's

in that's that's artificial built into

uh leveraged ETFs. So when you look at

like a 2x or 3x ETF, that doesn't show

up in margin statistics.

So like how much debt is there really

propping up this economy? All of it.

Yes. How much debt would you like, sir?

Yes,

that's scary. So, uh you know,

so Cody here says if shutdown, no BLS

report.

Yeah.

Okay. There is some talk that we might

not get a labor report because of the

shutdown. I actually didn't bring that

up because I think it's Like

the way the government operates during a

shutdown

is the people keep working at the

government. They just don't get paid. So

the poor souls have to show up and do

their job and not get paid. And they

have to wait for, you know, politicians

to figure out how to give them their

freaking money. Uh and and then they get

their money. But typically we continue

to see

the services of the government perform

to some extent. You know national parks

and some museums like the Smithsonians

and that they shut down.

But yeah I mean is it possible that

Donald Trump directs the BLS not to

release the labor report? Well that

tells you all you need to know though

because remember how I said pay like I

started this out by saying pay attention

to Trump. If Trump sandbags the BLS

report, it's because he already knows

that it's going to be bad and and that's

the market's not ready for that. The

market's pricing in a good BLS report.

Uh not having the report though

generally is bad because it removes

transparency and it heightens

uncertainty. It's going to take a lot of

those bullish economists and potentially

turn them bearish to some extent. So,

you've definitely got some buy the dip

opportunities uh over over this next

week here, you know. So, uh yeah, that's

uh that's that's all related here to BLS

jobs, all related to catalyst for the

week. So, uh that's it. That's

fantastic. That's really really good

information to know in my opinion.

Remember, we did do a brief extension on

Daddy's Back, the coupon code at

meetke.com. So, if you haven't yet, go

to meet Kevin.com. Realize what you get.

you get oh we got trumpics lectures

coming out really soon by the way those

are included so if you get the meet

Kevin membership trying to see if I can

pop it up on screen here if you grab the

Meet Kevin membership you not only get

all eight courses with all the new

lectures coming out mind you but you get

every trade alert uh you get every

private live stream you get every alpha

report and it might even be

taxdeductible

it most people write it off on their

taxes so anyway uh very cool so go check

that out over at meet Kevin.com. Tell us

about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praat there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.