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Housing is SUDDENLY Flippening.

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0:00

David, a max speed on new home sales,

0:03

800,000 seasonally adjusted annualized

0:06

rate in August. The street was looking

0:08

for 650. This is up 20.5% from July and

0:12

up 15.4%

0:14

from August of 2024. Now, we've been

0:16

talking about mortgage rates, of course,

0:19

uh, forever, and they didn't come down

0:20

in August. These numbers are based on

0:22

signed contracts. So, people out

0:23

shopping in August when the 30-year fix

0:25

had not started its steep drop that we

0:28

saw in September. Yeah, I mean that's

0:29

fair. These are August numbers. Uh and I

0:32

think what we're seeing in the market is

0:34

we're starting to see this absorption of

0:36

excess supply. This is a very normal

0:40

part of the real estate cycle. And so

0:43

what happens when you get an absorption

0:45

of excess supply is the next thing that

0:47

happens is you start getting uh you know

0:49

prices going up. And the reason for that

0:53

uh is people are realizing that Warren

0:57

Buffett is throwing money at real estate

1:00

right now. He's throwing money at uh

1:03

building stocks. He's throwing money at

1:05

home builders. This is an early tell

1:09

that people realize rates are either

1:13

going up uh or rates are either coming

1:15

down because of recession or they're

1:17

coming down uh coming down because of a

1:20

normalization of inflation. Either way,

1:24

you've got Powell who sees inflation as

1:27

point transitory. overtime transitory

1:29

here, not point transitory that is. Uh

1:32

so we expect in to see the return of

1:34

disinflation once we get through tariffs

1:36

or if we get a new president and a new

1:38

regime that ends up replacing tariffs,

1:41

we'll have deflation from that. Or we

1:43

have a recessionary environment, we get

1:45

deflation from that. All of that ends up

1:47

leading to this expectation that rates

1:49

are going to come down. And if you look

1:51

at the real estate cycle, I I really

1:53

need to find a higher quality version of

1:54

this, but this is actually the real

1:55

estate cycle that I made about 16 years

1:58

ago. So this is a graphic I slapped

2:01

together on Photoshop about 16 years

2:02

ago. And you'll find that the absorption

2:05

of excess supply portion or arrow is the

2:08

bottom of the cycle, which is really

2:11

exciting. This is what's leading to so

2:12

much enthusiasm around real estate plays

2:15

right now. It's leading to enthusiasm at

2:17

lenders. It's leading to enthusiasm at

2:18

Open Door. It's leading to enthusiasm at

2:20

house hack. People are throwing money at

2:22

house hack right now. I think I mean

2:24

we're raising over seven figures on on a

2:26

on a monthly basis. And I think one of

2:28

the reason is because people see the

2:31

real estate market is sort of like okay

2:33

wow yeah we're at an inflection point.

2:35

This is big. Uh now I mean maybe it's

2:37

because of the AI that we keep talking

2:40

about which frankly like in the even the

2:43

last 48 hours the AI training that we're

2:45

doing I'm looking I'm going wow we are

2:48

we are getting really close to this

2:49

being a product that uh that we can

2:52

sell. So it's really exciting and our

2:54

beta is launching in Q4 and and uh if we

2:57

can uh if we can sell this product in Q1

2:59

it's a it's a game changer for for what

3:00

houseack is we we we could explode the

3:03

valuation of the company which we're

3:04

really excited about. No guarantees

3:05

obviously. I'm just saying the I I'm not

3:07

sure when I say when I use Houseack, my

3:10

point is when I use Houseack as a

3:11

reference. I'm not sure if people are

3:13

plowing money into it right now because

3:14

they want to diversify or because they

3:16

want to bet on real estate or because

3:17

they want to bet on artificial

3:18

intelligence in real estate or they want

3:20

some kind of combination of all of that.

3:22

I don't know. Uh but it's what we're

3:24

seeing. So, it's interesting with these

3:26

numbers that Diana here is talking

3:28

about. She's talking about new home

3:30

sales from August. The expectation was

3:32

we were going to get 650. The prior

3:34

release was 652. The prior release got

3:36

revised up to 664 and this one beat

3:40

month overmonth by 20.5. Now, I

3:42

generally don't like looking at this

3:44

data because it tends to be lagging

3:46

data. Uh in the, you know, it's it's not

3:49

really impactful to traders either. You

3:51

know, if you're trading stocks or

3:53

whatever, nobody really cares about

3:54

these. But what it does is it sort of

3:56

reaffirms

3:58

that what Buffett was seeing back, for

4:00

example, in August is actually showing

4:02

up in the data. you know, maybe he was

4:04

getting phone calls, hey, we're clearing

4:05

out the shelves over here. Wouldn't be

4:07

surprised if there's some insider info

4:08

going on. Uh, that said, we also had

4:11

building permits that beat. Building

4:12

permits were expected at 1312 and they

4:14

came in at 1330. So, it was well over

4:17

6.5% in the high 6% range. Now, we're

4:20

down at the 6.3% range. So, this is a

4:22

surprise, but again, we've been talking

4:23

about the builders, their incentives.

4:25

Lenar's earnings last week, they said

4:27

they're doing price cuts. They're doing

4:29

uh all kinds of mortgage rate buys and

4:31

other incentives. Let's look at the

4:32

price today. Uh the price uh of a new

4:35

home sold was uh $413,500.

4:39

This is 4.7% above July. And it is uh

4:44

>> wow 4.7% above July. That's huge for the

4:48

price of new homes. Now be careful.

4:50

There can be some distortion with

4:52

distortions with new homes because they

4:54

throw so much money into incentives. So

4:57

it does sort of sometimes distort that

4:59

actual price level

5:00

>> above 1.9% above August 2024. So prices

5:04

going up on this. It's really

5:05

interesting that this is happening. I

5:07

guess people getting back into that

5:08

market before the fall season, which is

5:11

usually kind of the second most busy as

5:13

opposed to the spring season, but it is

5:15

>> that is the before fall season, like the

5:17

right before back to school. Uh and

5:19

that's true. August could have been like

5:20

people getting in, you know, right

5:22

before back to school. Another real

5:23

surprise to see prices go up as well as

5:25

sales go up. Inventories though, we're

5:27

looking at a 7.4 month supply. We had

5:30

been at a 9mon supply. Uh

5:33

>> inventory is falling in a lot of

5:35

different portions of the country. And

5:37

it's not it's like more than seasonal,

5:40

right? Because it's typical for

5:41

inventory to fall during this time of

5:43

year, but we're seeing a more than

5:45

seasonal decline in inventory. So,

5:48

there's just less available uh to be

5:51

picked up. uh fewer homes available uh

5:54

and as a result uh you could end up

5:57

seeing a squeeze in prices. I mean we

5:59

saw this in 202 to 23. Between the fall

6:04

of 22 and the spring of 23 we ended up

6:07

seeing prices jump something like 15%.

6:10

Because there was this sudden absorption

6:14

of inventory and then we had this lack

6:15

of inventory and just prices exploded

6:18

which is great for people who already

6:20

own real estate. It's not so great for

6:22

people who want to get into real estate,

6:24

but that's the age-old problem. Keep in

6:26

mind, it's mostly seniors that own their

6:31

homes and have the vast majority of

6:32

equity in their homes. And so, younger

6:34

people are getting screwed. I hate to

6:37

say that, but 54% of homes are owned by

6:39

seniors. 40 uh that that ratio is 44% in

6:44

2008. So, seniors have really like

6:46

gained the lead here. Uh 76% of those

6:49

seniors have no mortgages with uh 78% of

6:54

seniors not wanting to move or downsize

6:58

which means less supply uh a lower

7:02

available supply which isn't great. Uh

7:04

instead seniors focusing on home equity

7:06

lines with a loan to value average of

7:09

just 24%. This is how lenders like

7:12

Figure, which is a 99% HELOC lender,

7:15

mostly online, AI, blockchain, uh, is is

7:18

killing it. And then you've also,

7:21

especially post their IPO, they're

7:23

nicely up. But, u, you're finding that

7:27

people are tapping into their equity to

7:28

do whatever, spend, you know, some more

7:31

consumer spending or invest in the stock

7:33

market because home equity loans are

7:35

still cheaper than credit cards or

7:37

personal loans. So, it makes sense. in

7:39

July. So, inventories coming down.

7:41

Builders obviously making the push to

7:43

get in people in the door, but builder

7:45

sentiment again wasn't so great in

7:48

September. So, these numbers are really

7:50

quite something again. 800,000 up 20%

7:53

monthtomonth. Back to you.

7:55

>> Yeah, Diana.

7:56

>> Yeah, that it's it's great. So, I and I

7:59

get it. Like I understand why you have

8:02

these these HELOC lenders uh doing

8:04

really well right now. But I think it's

8:06

also worth mentioning that Maria Baroma,

8:10

she just had this Bessen interview and

8:13

there was a portion where she showed

8:16

Figures CEO an interview with Figure

8:19

CEO. I'm going to pull it up here. And

8:21

it's interesting because the Figure CEO,

8:23

he's talking about competing with Fanny

8:24

and Freddy. I know like I know they

8:27

already know this but he doesn't have to

8:29

compete with Fanny and Freddy. He could

8:31

compete with Fanny and Freddy and they

8:34

know this but the figure well I'll show

8:36

you the clip here. The figure CEO he

8:38

talks about competing with Fanny Freddy

8:40

getting into mortgages know this figure

8:43

it's in their financial statements 99%

8:47

helocks. So anything Figure does to

8:52

expand their reach into regular

8:55

mortgages, you know, whether they sell

8:56

the mortgages to Fanny Freddy or they

8:58

sell them to the private marketplace

9:01

gives Figure even more of an addressable

9:05

market substantially larger uh and any

9:08

sales that they do in regular mortgages

9:11

from HELOCs basically increases their

9:13

revenue base assuming I mean there could

9:15

be some cannibalization once rates

9:17

really fall But it's okay because I

9:20

think as an online lender, you know,

9:22

their goal is to make the process as

9:23

simple as possible, much like a rocket

9:25

mortgage now by Mr. Cooper. And these

9:27

online lenders are just going to boom

9:28

through this next refinance cycle. But

9:30

listen to the competition talk here with

9:32

Fanny.

9:35

Oops.

9:35

>> Another company. For example, I spoke

9:37

with the CEO of Figure, who's also a

9:39

mortgage originator. Here's what he

9:40

said. Watch this.

9:44

>> It took forever for them to hit play. In

9:46

terms of the the market that is

9:48

available to you right now, the

9:50

potential market, what would that look

9:52

like?

9:52

>> One of the big ones that we're going

9:53

after is First Lean Mortgage. So, we're

9:55

now competing directly with Fanny May

9:56

and Freddy M.

9:57

>> Yes. We're going after mortgage. Now,

9:59

understand for for a lot of people who

10:02

hear this. You don't have to compete to

10:04

f with Fanny and Freddy. Remember, you

10:06

can sell to them, right? You can

10:09

originate Fanny Freddy loans and just

10:11

sell the loans to them. But yes, you can

10:13

also compete with different products

10:15

against Fanny Freddy. That is what

10:17

happened in 200, you know, three and

10:20

four when we were starting to kind of

10:22

like build up the bubble. Uh what

10:24

happened was private lenders were

10:27

starting to say, you don't need the

10:28

government sponsored entities, which you

10:30

know were more more public then. Uh you

10:33

don't need them. You don't need the

10:35

Fanny Freddy's. We'll give you a better

10:37

deal. What I'm actually finding right

10:39

now, uh, and we're going to be talking

10:41

about this with, uh, not only our course

10:43

members, but our mastermind folks, is

10:45

I'm finding lenders that are literally

10:48

doing 40-year loans, 30 years, uh, 20

10:53

years interest only, I'm pretty sure

10:55

it's 20 years interest only, and then it

10:57

goes to a 20-year amortized period for a

11:00

combined 40-year period. I I have to

11:02

fact check the numbers. I wrote them

11:03

down, but I'm starting to see these

11:05

products come through now. and uh

11:07

they're they're full dock loans, you

11:09

know, fixed rate mortgages and it's

11:12

incredible, but they're private

11:13

mortgages. They're not Fanny Freddy's.

11:16

It's really interesting on rental

11:18

properties as well. So, there are some

11:20

really interesting, you know, new

11:22

private products coming out and this is

11:23

a space that figure can I think very

11:26

well compete in

11:27

>> um using blockchain technology as an

11:29

advantage and and for certainly loans

11:31

under $500,000, we're winning in that

11:33

competition right now. A and and Fanny

11:36

and Freddy are likely going to see their

11:38

own IPOs once again, right? President

11:40

Trump expected to take 5% of those

11:43

companies public. Does that sort of even

11:46

even pony up the the competition that

11:49

much further?

11:49

>> Well, we we like competing against them

11:51

as private enterprises. Uh they got a

11:53

little bit of an unfair advantage as a

11:54

governmentbacked entity, but uh so it

11:56

levels the playing field a little bit,

11:57

but but right now we're winning

11:59

irrespective. So broadly speaking, is it

12:02

an unfair advantage when government has

12:03

a stake in public?

12:04

>> Keep in mind this this like blockchain

12:07

argument that he has. It's really hard

12:09

to verify this right now. Uh this is,

12:12

you know, this promotion that Figure

12:14

uses. Uh and and like I want Figure to

12:16

do well. I think I I've I've seen people

12:18

use their lending products and people

12:20

really enjoy it, but I think that this

12:22

blockchain pitch is kind of mostly

12:25

fugazy.

12:26

uh you know they say they use it

12:28

regularly and that they're able to

12:30

streamline the mortgage process through

12:32

blockchain. I remain unconvinced with

12:35

that uh and and I don't know that we

12:37

really have independent data confirming

12:39

that at this point but it is something

12:40

that they do pitch

12:42

>> and you could look at Fanny May you

12:43

could look at Intel.

12:45

>> Well Maria there are decisions that the

12:48

US government makes that we believe is

12:51

good for society. We believe home

12:52

ownership is good. So there therefore uh

12:56

the government wants to be involved and

12:58

I can I can tell you like having come

13:00

into

13:01

>> that's another tailwind for the housing

13:02

market as well by the way is this idea

13:04

of hey the government like best and

13:06

wants lower rates to help mortgage

13:08

markets right and help the housing

13:10

market

13:11

>> from for the private sector that what we

13:14

have seen here is that there was a

13:16

breakdown in our supply chains and

13:19

whether during co whether it was

13:21

semiconductors whether we're seeing it

13:23

with the Chinese putting export controls

13:26

on rare earths. So there are some things

13:29

for national security or that we have

13:32

made the decision as a society we want

13:35

to do. But you know I I can tell you

13:37

like that the Intel stake you know is

13:39

now been validated that in Nvidia's come

13:42

in and taken a stake. you know, the the

13:45

big the biggest

13:47

>> uh anyway, that that just starts going

13:49

into a little bit more of sort of the

13:50

level of government intervention that

13:52

they're okay with. But, uh this is good

13:54

news for the housing market broadly. Uh

13:57

now, if we can also go to the uh Red

13:59

Fin, uh housing blog and get a little

14:02

bit of an update from them.

14:06

So, take a look at this. Let's see here.

14:10

Uh, we've got uh we want high housing

14:13

costs are pushing some Americans to make

14:15

major family sacrifices like delaying

14:18

having kids. Uh, wow. Which is kind of

14:21

sad, but it's getting worse by the fact

14:24

that home prices are now ticking up. Uh,

14:27

and you know, you're you're seeing, look

14:29

at this, housing supply drops the most

14:31

in 2 years. Now, the argument here is

14:34

that sluggish demand spooks sellers. But

14:37

what happens when this is this is the

14:39

leadin part is what happens when

14:41

inventory falls, you tend to ramp up for

14:44

the boom. And I think that's why you're

14:46

seeing the new construction level really

14:48

move. Look at this. Active listings of

14:50

homes for sale fell 1.4%. Look at this

14:53

over time here. We're down to the lows

14:56

of inventory that we saw in March,

14:58

February, March of 2023.

15:02

Uh and and we're sitting actually to

15:05

similar point here to this 2020 or 2012

15:10

level that I was talking about where we

15:12

saw this rocket in inventory or sorry

15:14

this rocket in prices at the beginning

15:16

of 2020 uh or 2013. Really interesting

15:19

home prices ticked up 2 in August.

15:22

That's despite this idea of hey like you

15:26

know how many buyers are there? It's

15:28

okay. We've got fewer sellers. That's

15:30

kind of the weird irony right now is

15:31

like you could have fewer buyers. Yes.

15:34

But because there are fewer sellers,

15:36

they're having to pay more because you

15:38

have it's almost like if you've lost

15:41

five buyers, you've lost eight sellers.

15:43

And so the net impact that we're seeing

15:45

to reconcile this data is prices up, new

15:48

home construction sales up, uh, and

15:51

inventory that continues to climb, which

15:53

is typically an early sign of a turning

15:56

point, uh, in the housing market. uh

15:58

doesn't mean that there aren't real

15:59

problems. I mean, look at this. Just

16:01

over one in 20 of the people who

16:04

struggle to afford housing said they

16:06

moved in with parents and 6% moved in

16:08

with other family members. Five moved in

16:10

5% moved in with roommates and 2.8%

16:13

moved in with grown children. So, people

16:15

consolidating. You're actually seeing

16:17

lower household formation because of the

16:20

challenges of unaffordability. Uh and

16:22

that's sad. And then I think that's why

16:24

Besson is pushing so hard for rate cuts.

16:29

All of the changes and sacrifices

16:31

Americans make to make housing more

16:32

affordable. They ate out at restaurants

16:35

less often. 41% 34% took no or fewer

16:39

vacations. 19% more hours. Uh 19%

16:44

borrowed money. Jeez. And it kind of

16:46

goes on here. Yikes.

16:49

Okay. All right. Well, it's a it's sort

16:52

of a two-tiered system, right? You get

16:54

the rich getting richer, uh the asset

16:56

owners getting wealthier, and uh

16:58

everybody else kind of getting left

17:00

behind. I'm just looking at some of your

17:02

comments here. One of you says, uh so

17:04

this is good for REITs. Yes, real estate

17:06

investment trust. Somebody says, uh the

17:10

if the housing market were allowed to

17:11

operate within a free market, the median

17:13

price would be around 250 and inventory

17:14

wouldn't be a problem. I think what

17:16

you're referencing is the uh lack of a

17:18

free market that you have in the way of

17:20

building, right? You have so much

17:22

government oversight in building. The

17:25

problem with that is if you have too

17:27

little government oversight in building,

17:29

you potentially end up having properties

17:31

that are built too cheaply and then you

17:34

end up having, you know, disasters uh in

17:37

in earthquakes or, you know, condos in

17:40

Miami or whatever, right? So, so there

17:42

is there is a balance there.

17:45

Uh, let's see here. You've got you got

17:48

to be a millionaire to buy a house in

17:50

the ghetto. It's tough. Yeah. What do

17:52

you think about home builders? Well,

17:54

like I said, Buffett is buying them. And

17:56

I get it. I get why he's doing it

17:58

because as resale inventory falls, you

18:03

basically have like it's kind of like,

18:06

think about it this way. Let's say you

18:08

want to go to prom. You really want a

18:10

prom date and like all the tens are

18:12

taken. you know, there's just no supply

18:14

left of tens. And so then you're like,

18:17

"All right." Like, you look around and

18:20

there's just this army of fives and

18:23

they're like, "We'll go." Those are kind

18:26

of like the new construction homes where

18:27

they're not the triedand-true

18:29

neighborhoods that are the 10 out of 10,

18:31

you know, best school districts, uh,

18:33

most established neighborhoods and

18:36

reputation for for quality and, you

18:39

know, whatever people want in a in a

18:40

neighborhood. Instead, you have this

18:42

sort of new untested,

18:45

you know, hey, like makes up really

18:48

nicely, but is it good? You know, that's

18:52

that's my analogy for for the new

18:54

construction because new construction,

18:56

you always have a risk when you buy new

18:57

construction. You're often buying new

18:59

neighborhoods and you don't know like

19:01

who are the neighbors going to be like

19:02

what's going to happen? What's how's

19:05

like is is is this going to end up being

19:07

a good neighborhood or not? Kind of

19:10

interesting. So, um,

19:15

somebody here says, uh, from Canada

19:16

says, I had a question. Why are home

19:18

prices in Texas so cheap while being so

19:20

good? Well, I don't know that there's a

19:22

comparison of so good. I think the

19:24

question is, why are prices so cheap in

19:26

Texas is exactly the reference to what

19:29

we talked about with home building

19:31

regulation. In Texas, you you can build

19:34

like crazy. I mean you have very uh

19:36

lzair conservative policies uh which

19:39

basically say hey let business decide

19:42

and so your government regulation is

19:44

very limited like you could really get

19:45

away with whatever you want in terms of

19:47

building in Texas and so you get massive

19:49

supply as a result of that you do also

19:51

have uh high property taxes so you have

19:54

to be careful that you're not you know

19:58

missing the boat on all the components

20:00

that go into housing costs housing costs

20:02

like anything else or a monthly payment

20:04

factor. So, when property taxes are

20:07

double in Texas than they are in

20:09

California or or other parts of the

20:11

country, you know, that's something you

20:12

have to factor in. You have to factor in

20:15

uh serious uh you know, weatherproofing

20:17

issues in Texas. You have to factor in

20:19

the fact that, you know, once a home is

20:22

like a 1970s home in Texas, you're

20:24

almost better off rebuilding the damn

20:26

home than you are renovating it, which

20:28

is crazy. It's it's almost like a mobile

20:30

home, right? So, when you factor in

20:31

property taxes, insurance, uh water, uh

20:34

uh issues, you know, moisture issues

20:36

from the humidity, uh and uh and the

20:39

fact that people tend to rebuild even

20:41

homes built in the '7s, you know, yeah,

20:43

you're going to have a different price

20:45

characteristic than, for example, a you

20:48

know, maybe in your case, a Canadian

20:49

home, depends on where it is, or a uh a

20:52

California home. You know, in

20:53

California, you you wouldn't catch

20:55

somebody dead rebuilding a 1970s home

20:58

unless it burned down. you're going to

21:00

end up finding, you know, people are are

21:02

uh remodeling because there's a lot of

21:05

residual value in the properties. You

21:07

also have property taxes that are well

21:09

half that of Texas, right? Uh still have

21:12

insurance issues, but you know, so there

21:14

are a lot of differences. California is

21:16

a very hard market to build in as well.

21:18

Permitting is very very challenging. So,

21:21

okay, good good qu good question there.

21:24

What SAS do you think is needed in the

21:27

building material construction industry?

21:29

says, "Max, donating$5 Canadian

21:30

dollars." A uh I have a lot of material

21:33

procurement software. You know, I I it

21:36

software as a service in material

21:38

building construction. The biggest thing

21:40

for people is uh I mean, in my opinion,

21:44

this is just sort of like on the spot

21:46

when it comes to uh doing renovations or

21:49

whatever. Typically,

21:52

people get frustrated with business's

21:55

capability of actually running inventory

21:57

management appropriately. The fact that

21:59

inventory still seems to be such that

22:01

websites could say something's in stock

22:03

and then it's not and your deliveries

22:05

get cancelled and your delivery time

22:06

frames are screwed up, that pisses a lot

22:08

of people off. So, you know, that's

22:10

really where I feel like AI logistics

22:12

can help. Uh, somebody says, "Hed funds

22:14

should not be able to own homes as

22:16

investment vehicles." You know, people

22:17

say this all the time and it's like the

22:20

most common thing that people say

22:21

because it's just like it's it's like a

22:23

popular thing to say, but it's just data

22:26

wise wrong. You know, companies that own

22:28

more than a thousand homes make up less

22:30

than 1% of the homes that are owned. Uh

22:34

so, so the vast majority of homes that

22:37

are rental properties are owned by

22:39

people who are momand pop investors

22:42

who've moved on from the first home they

22:43

bought and kept the other one as a

22:45

rental. and they, you know, they're

22:48

they're providing rental housing. You

22:51

know, the vast majority are not hedge

22:53

funds or Wall Street firms or whatever.

22:55

And even if they were like, good

22:58

companies providing more rental products

23:00

for you is good. The problem isn't more

23:03

people buying and providing rental

23:05

supply. The problem is a lack of built

23:08

supply. That's the problem in housing.

23:10

So usually when people make these these

23:12

arguments about oh you know it it's

23:15

hedge funds buying up all the homes

23:17

factually a wrong

23:20

institutional investors with over 100 or

23:23

with over 1,000 homes own less than 1%

23:25

of the single family homes in the United

23:27

States. Look it up urban institute. They

23:30

talk about this all the time and and

23:32

people don't don't consider that. They

23:34

just they rehash that argument because

23:36

it's not popular to say, "Hey, we need

23:39

to build more homes and lower building

23:40

standards or streamline building

23:42

standards would be the better way to put

23:43

it because it's too complicated. It's

23:45

much more easier to go, it's the shoots

23:47

that you're taking and making all the

23:49

homes unaffordable. It's the Chinese,

23:52

you know, it's like come on, man. It's

23:54

ridiculous." So, uh, you know, that's uh

23:58

that's important uh to remember. So, uh,

24:02

somebody here says, "Big institutions

24:04

want rental income. Single family sucks

24:05

for that." Uh, I disagree with that. I

24:08

highly disagree with that. I think

24:09

actually single family homes are, uh,

24:11

the the the best investments that you

24:13

can make in America. Uh, I'm I'm the

24:15

biggest fan of that. Great inflation

24:17

hedge. And really, you're providing

24:19

rental supply for people, right? So, uh,

24:23

and and remember, it's almost all small

24:27

mom and pop owners who own real estate.

24:29

and again seniors. So you would be

24:32

making a much stronger argument to go

24:33

the seniors are buying up all the homes

24:36

making it hard for Gen Z and millennials

24:38

to buy homes than uh than it would be to

24:41

say the hedge funds are causing the

24:42

problem. Blame the seniors. Now I don't

24:45

blame the seniors because I recognize

24:46

the market. I recognize the way it

24:48

works. I blame the lack of building.

24:50

That's that's my take, you know, and I'm

24:53

more than happy to point the finger at

24:54

the government because I think the more

24:55

the government gets involved, the more

24:56

they screw things up. Uh so big big big

24:59

big fan of that. Um

25:04

yeah and and this idea that you know

25:06

single families might not be a good you

25:07

know returning vehicle. Remember what

25:08

Warren Buffett said? Warren Buffett in

25:10

2012 he's like hey if I if I had the

25:12

ability to scale because it's hard to

25:15

scale single family real estate. I would

25:17

buy uh thousands of single family homes

25:20

right now. Totally agree with that.

25:24

So somebody here says Kevin get the

25:27

ultra watch. I did. It's actually right

25:29

here. I got it. It's going to give me a

25:31

step reminder here soon or stand

25:32

reminder. So, I'm going to have to get

25:34

uh I'm going to have to go get a cup of

25:35

coffee. Somebody says Trump needs to

25:38

pass an executive order on institutional

25:40

ownership. You're wrong. And if they

25:42

don't own that much, an executive order

25:44

won't hurt them too bad. So, you donated

25:46

$5 to just reiterate that there's like

25:50

some kind of like either mental

25:51

retardation going on here. Sorry. Or I

25:54

appreciate the $5, though. or you're

25:56

just like really biased, right? Like

25:59

that's the thing is usually when you get

26:01

people who who are so like well well

26:05

your facts you even if your facts are

26:07

true I still maintain that it's a

26:10

problem but the facts say it's not a

26:13

problem and and so there's some kind of

26:15

like mental bias that you have going on

26:17

that is blocking you from realizing that

26:20

how you're trying to solve the housing

26:22

problem is not how you solve the housing

26:24

problem. You solve the housing problem

26:25

by building more homes. It's very, very

26:28

simple. Austin, Texas is the perfect

26:30

example of that. When in 2022, we

26:33

started House Act. We looked at Austin,

26:37

uh, Colorado, Atlanta, Florida,

26:39

Manhattan, Brooklyn, uh, uh, you know,

26:43

Utah, St. George, Utah, Sacramento, uh,

26:47

Reading, you name it. We we flew like

26:51

400 trips to find the best markets to

26:53

invest in for house hack. And we

26:56

specifically chose not to invest in

26:58

Texas because we're like they are

27:00

tearing down 1970s homes and there's a

27:02

building boom coming here. What happened

27:04

in Texas? Prices plummeted about 25%

27:09

from peak because of an excess of

27:11

building. What happened in Brooklyn

27:13

where you have dumb building policies

27:16

that make it really hard to build extra

27:17

homes, right? We should we should not

27:20

have ownorous regulations on building uh

27:24

a anything over four building in

27:26

Brooklyn, right? We should make it easy

27:28

to build a 16-unit building. Instead,

27:31

builders prefer to build duplexes

27:32

because it's too hard to build a 16 unit

27:34

in the same footprint because the

27:36

regulations in Brooklyn are insane. So,

27:38

what happened in Brooklyn and

27:39

California? prices skyrocketed. San

27:42

Diego prices up. Brooklyn prices is up.

27:45

At the same time, Austin, Texas fell

27:47

25%. So, thank you for your $5. But

27:50

where's the data? You're not providing

27:52

data. You're providing emotion and bias.

27:55

When you provide and look at the data

27:57

and you understand how capitalism works,

27:59

you will finally recognize that what I

28:01

ran for, I ran for this on for as

28:03

governor. I tried in 2021 and got almost

28:07

a million votes doing this. I pitch that

28:09

what we need in California is

28:11

streamlined building regulation. Why do

28:13

I have different codes between cities

28:16

that are like 10 minutes apart? It's the

28:19

stupidest thing ever. All it does is

28:20

make things complicated for architects

28:22

and engineers that like the weather

28:24

doesn't change that much in 20 minutes.

28:26

Why don't we streamline building codes

28:28

between different cities and even across

28:30

the entire state so we could build more

28:32

homes or expand where we can build homes

28:35

and then interconnect cities with boring

28:37

tunnels so we don't have more traffic,

28:39

right? Those were some of the things

28:40

that we ran on and and like when we look

28:43

at the data, the data says this is

28:44

exactly what we need. But again, people

28:47

aren't data dependent

28:49

>> data dependent.

28:50

>> Instead, people are emotional. like they

28:52

will literally throw $5 to make

28:55

themselves look like a fool uh at at

28:58

like ignoring data. Like, yeah, we know

29:00

your data says that, but my bias says

29:03

this. Fine. Again, thanks for the $5. I

29:07

appreciate you being here listening to

29:08

the to the rant, but uh you know, it

29:11

it's also important to kind of like wake

29:13

up to the facts, man. It's crazy.

29:16

Somebody Ethan donated 10 bucks here to

29:18

say thoughts on buying commercial real

29:19

estate like office space in downtown

29:20

areas such as Chicago and remodeling

29:22

them into apartments. It's very

29:23

expensive. You have to be careful with

29:25

the type of property that you're buying.

29:27

So, if you're buying a high-rise, for

29:29

example, uh you know, an early 1920s

29:31

high-rise is going to be more desirable

29:33

to renovate into apartments, ironically,

29:36

than a 1960s property because in the

29:38

1960s, a lot of the 1960s buildings, you

29:41

you actually have to core them out in

29:43

the middle to get enough window space

29:44

for units because 1960s, you had so many

29:47

of these flat offices, and they're just

29:48

not really conducive to chopping up

29:50

inexpensively into homes, uh, apartments

29:53

basically. 1920 is a lot easier to do.

29:56

Some of the more modern buildings a

29:57

little easier to do. But yeah, I mean

29:59

the office in my opinion is mostly dead.

30:01

Like I would not make a bet on office.

30:03

But I would also be very cautious on my

30:05

ability to turn an office into uh you

30:08

know a home, especially in a you know

30:11

more blue city that's going to have

30:13

those ownerous building regulations. So

30:15

you really better know what you're

30:16

doing. So you know $10 there to to to

30:19

say uh you know you better know what

30:22

you're doing if you're going to get into

30:23

that. So, uh, yeah. Anyway, uh, somebody

30:28

says, "But Kevin, you failed to factor

30:30

that these investors hold a substantial

30:32

presence in specific markets."

30:34

Uh, I mean, like I said, you know,

30:36

institutional ownership, uh, of those

30:38

who own more than a thousand is less

30:40

than 1%. And and if you actually look at

30:42

where they've concentrated, they've

30:44

concentrated in high build markets like

30:46

sunb belt markets like Texas, like

30:49

Dallas, uh, or Florida. And uh compare

30:53

the price action of what's happened in

30:55

Dallas uh uh and Austin and parts of

30:57

Florida. Compare that price action where

31:00

you're going to have more of that

31:01

institutional concentration also having

31:03

more building. Compare that to what's

31:06

happened in New York and and California.

31:08

You'll actually find that where there's

31:10

lower institutional investment of real

31:12

estate, you have higher prices. So,

31:15

ironically, more institutional

31:17

investment is correlated with lower

31:20

prices because they're investing in high

31:22

build markets.

31:24

So, again, like the very argument you

31:27

are making doesn't fact out with reality

31:31

and the opposite is true. Look, this is

31:32

what I do for a living, okay? I started

31:34

House Act not just to buy uh and provide

31:39

rental properties to people, you know,

31:41

we buy fixtures that nobody's living in.

31:43

We literally all the time we're buying

31:44

properties that are vacant and they've

31:46

been vacant for years and we're bringing

31:47

them to the housing market. We're doing

31:48

a service. We're building on ADUs. We're

31:51

building more apartments. We're building

31:53

speck homes to provide more housing. Not

31:56

only are we doing that, but we're

31:57

developing real estate artificial

31:59

intelligence to help people skyrocket

32:02

their net worth with AI and real estate

32:05

that actually matters. Now, that's all

32:08

huge in my opinion, but you have to

32:10

remember that this is what I do. Like, I

32:14

love real estate and it's in my opinion

32:16

really hard to to to compete from the

32:20

data point of view uh when when people

32:22

leave comments because this is what I do

32:24

on a daily basis and it's pretty easy

32:25

for me to answer these questions. Uh but

32:27

anyway, that that's my take. Again, you

32:30

know, maybe I'm biased. I got a real

32:32

estate startup. It's called House Hack.

32:33

You can invest in it. read the

32:34

solicitation or the purchase uh the

32:36

private placement memorandum if you're

32:38

accredited or the offering circular if

32:39

not accredited you get a 5% yield

32:42

through conversion plus all of the

32:44

upside in the stock actually think it's

32:45

a pretty good deal uh but uh but yeah I

32:48

mean institutional investors are

32:50

regularly concentrated in sunb belt and

32:52

high build markets uh which have seen

32:55

much more moderate or or potentially

32:57

even negative price growth compared to

32:58

these these supply constrained markets

33:00

that I've been talking about. So I think

33:02

it's uh it's it's very interesting.

33:04

Uh so anyway, great great questions.

33:07

>> Tell us about this.

33:08

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

33:09

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

33:11

You have done so much. People love you.

33:13

People look up to you.

33:14

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

33:15

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

33:17

to get your take.

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