Complete Cluster F*$K! **Massive Rate Cuts Coming**

massive rate Cuts could be coming boy

this is just a freaking cluster every

day it's like a different freaking story

today we got State Street they manage

$3.6

trillion in assets they're the fourth

largest asset manager in the world $3.6

trillion dollar not billion trillion

dollars that's how much money they

manage and they probably take like you

know 1% fee on that which just just for

gig jeez I I I have to use AI to do that

3.6 trillion uh time 1% let AI think

about it in real time and I'll let you

know what it

answers it's so bad it's just a lot of

money that they're probably going to be

making but the point is they are now

betting on massive rate Cuts coming this

year now this is interesting 1% by the

way of 3.6 trillion is $ 36 billion that

this company can print if they charge 1%

that's crazy so they make lots of money

and they've a bet that massive rate cuts

are coming this year now what's

interesting is they were one of the

first to bet that massive rate Cuts were

coming at the end of last year see if

you go over to I believe it is October

yeah see we were in the third month of a

3mon sell-off in October all of October

was basically red and we u-turned at

about November 1st and then we got a

doish Powell in December and things

basically just rallied from November 1st

on accelerated by po woi so here we get

October 3rd what do they say October 3rd

we could see 100 to 200 points of easing

as growth and inflation slow in

2024 yet what's interesting is if we

look at real GDP

forecasts uh based on the Atlanta fed we

haven't really been slowing GDP we're

actually doing very well we're sitting

in the two and a half to 3% range for

GDP and the Blue Chip consensus so the

market consensus is actually moving up

that's because we're uprighting what we

think companies are going to provide in

terms of earnings and the econom is

actually doing stronger but State Street

disagrees and they actually think we're

going to get big cuts this year and I'm

going to talk about why but I have to

say this morning was absolutely wild at

about

10:27 eastern time during our course

member live stream we shorted live we

did a live short right about here uh and

the entire Market at 1027 took a whole

leg down the cues everything I don't

think I started that I don't think I we

have that kind of magic one but I'm just

saying if you ever doubt real-time

trading uh not only did we take uh

$4,500 profit this morning but we took

another $1,800 real time during the

course member live stream I'm like you

know we should short sun run here boom

picked up 1,800 bucks on the way down as

the entire Market moved now that was

awesome like we shorted it that minute

but I just want to mention if you want

all of these alerts why are you not in

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course member live streams so consider

joining those but for now let's focus on

state straight for a moment so State

Strait is making the argument that

because of Consumer Debt buildup and a

potential slowing of the economy we

could actually see still 150 points of

cuts this year they say a string of

robust US economic data including

Friday's blowout jobs report uh has sort

of suggested that maybe don't need raid

Cuts but they maintain that the economy

is not actually as strong as it seems

with indicators like credit card

delinquencies and the cost of credit to

small business pointing towards a

downward turn later this year let's be

clear smaller businesses paying for

higher rates right now they're the ones

footing the bill it's not the big

companies it's not the mega caps the big

growth companies with the massive money

market uh uh profiteering that's going

on look at a company like Microsoft they

pay pay 500 million in interest they

make nearly a billion in interest it's

over $900 million it's crazy how much

money they make because they have so

much more cash that's the opposite for

small businesses small businesses get

screwed and so State Street actually

thinks the market is quote underplaying

the likelihood of deeper cuts and

there's a lot to suggest that the

recovery is very fragile despite that it

looks resilient on the surface and of

course we have a chart here suggesting

the market is actually unpriced three

cuts which would be -75 BPS here with

about -61 uh and so they actually think

that with inflation going closer to 3%

you don't actually need rates this high

and so initially I'm like what are y'all

smoking like the data is coming in hot

and credit card delinquencies yes

they're high and and dead is

skyrocketing this is true but I don't

know that we're going to have a cad list

of those debts coming due yet we will

have a glorious recession at some point

in the future and will be driven by a

Consumer Debt cycle I have no freaking

idea when that's going to be but I I

don't think it's now now as far as this

3% argument I tried my best to think

okay what what could we possibly say

well there are a couple things we could

do first we could look at what Nikki T

says so Nikki T good old Nikki leaks

okay Nikki T gives us basically you

could take the over or the under and you

might be right he says the March CPI

which comes out tomorrow could validate

or upend the idea that hotter than

anticipated inflation readings in Jan

and fed reflect blah blah blah changes

right

basically tomorrow's CPI report at 5:30

a.m. I will be streaming it live

obviously is extremely important because

we're going to either amplify that we

are hot or we are going to reiterate

that those early numbers were a fluke

and we're going down with CPI we're

expecting 3 on the month over month3 on

the month over month core year-over-year

3.4 that's actually up from 3.2 and the

year-over-year core down to 3.7 from 38

now if I go to the most important one

which is the CPI core month over month

the super core is going to be very

important but I want you to know that

the ranges right now are pretty tight

they're pretty tight between 0.25 and.

35 with a high estimate of 04 and a low

of 0.2 with uh 60 qualified economists

reporting we could get a big miss here

if we get a 04 the stock market's going

to plummet because there is there's like

one Economist predicting 04 uh there are

yeah there's one Economist predict

predicting 04 and then you have one 2

three four five six seven no six six

predicting 2 and the rest are at25 to3

to35

so a Miss to the upside would be really

unexpected and bad uh and it would

reiterate hot January February Market go

down right but could State Street be

right yes if we got a0 2 handle tomorrow

with only six economists so 10% of

economists thinking we're going to get

a0 2 handle that would be really good

especially if super core comes down what

do we need for super core to come down

I'm going to tell you Vehicle Insurance

homeowners insurance medical pets

Financial Services

all of those service Industries down

very very very very important that we

get weaker price growth in those we

already know oil is going to contribute

to up on a headline that's fine but what

else do we need to pay attention to and

remember I'll be live at 5:30 a.m.

tomorrow it'll be on the meet Kevin live

channel so make sure to watch me there

uh and and then we'll post a summary on

on the main Channel later but

anyway what do we have to consider when

it comes to s Street could they be right

okay so what I did is I wanted to try to

see how could they be right and what I

did is I went over to the multivariate

core I posted this over on ec.com as

well so you could just Google this

multivariate core inflation and uh what

you have to remember is we raised rates

to

55% to get multivariate core down from

the crazy levels where it was here's

multivariant core multivariate core

let's just get rid of a headline here

cuz that's so lumpy let's let's just get

the probability banned so let's get rid

of all this stuff okay so we raised

rates to 55% to kill multivariant core

that was between 4.9 and 5.6 right this

probability band over here so we go to

55 to get down something that's at 5'5

well now what was at 55 is actually at

basically

2.75 okay so we went down by 2.75 so yes

theoretically could you get 2.75 down by

reducing rates as State Street says

three times 50 basis points 150 basis

points yeah yeah you actually could you

could I'm not sure because we are

starting to see some heat from wages I

don't think you're going to get a cut

before probably September but could you

then get 350 basis point Cuts yes you

absolutely could but it's all going to

start with tomorrow's numbers coming in

soft you want super core coming in soft

you want a02 on that month over Monon

core and then stocks are going to go

Moon so what you should be doing today

is you should be doing your analysis

today and you should be

going what stocks am I going to buy with

the cash you have if rates come in low

or inflation comes in low tomorrow well

obviously Tesla and F or perfect uh

interest rate sensitive candidates

Sunrun is very volatile and interest

rate sensitive First Solar might be an

option but you might also uh consider

that those are going to move the indices

up and when the indices move up maybe

it'll also move up your AI Place

probably would so probably everything

will go up if you get a02 it probably

doesn't matter what you buy the problem

is the data comes out an hour before the

Market opens so you know some of the

price gains will already be built in but

you'll be setting up a month of probably

just cuz you'll finally have put the

fire out on January February really big

deal if you just get a meet of

expectations tomorrow it puts all the

pressure on the next fed meeting which

is May 1st so that's in about 3 weeks so

that's a little lame so again if

you get a meet it's going to go into the

details super core we have a debate

which way do we go I don't know we'll

have to analyze if we get a point4 sell

everything maybe AI won't sell off as

much

maybe so I don't know uh it's a big day

tomorrow it's a really big day and as

you could tell Nick T does has no

freaking idea everybody this morning for

a moment thought that maybe the the

data's already been leaked I mean it's

possible but what you're going to find

is the cues are just basically playing

the lines you know we were live trading

this morning in the course member live

live stream and uh we saw the cues uh

come basically hit this line and and

just basically move along this line

people still think the lines don't work

and the lines are great we were live

trading this so so it's not like we

added the line afterwards uh the same

thing was true of Tesla uh the bounces

that we got right on the line uh it's

remarkable and the same thing over here

at

178 uh you know the failed breakout

twice you know the lines are great if

you're not using the lines you're you're

missing out so join us in the stocks and

sight group we do an amazing course

member live this morning we're actually

doing a uh review of a real estate

analysis as well as analyzing an AI

company I actually want to expand a

position

into and um yeah we were we were tearing

apart someone's real estate deal let's

just put it that way anyway those are my

thoughts thank you so much for watching

I appreciate yall um I guess I could

mention that if you ever want to live

stream and multistream you could go to

metkevin.com

streamyard they're pretty awesome it's a

paid promotion metkevin.com lifee to get

life insurance in as little as 5 minutes

uh also pay

promotion yeah that's all I got and then

the course is over at me kevin.com

thanks so much bye why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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