Warning: The Bottom of the Stock Market.

is this the bottom of the market let's

talk about data that just came out today

but first to understand the data that

just came out today we have to remember

and catch you up with what the Federal

Reserve told us was going to Mark Max

Payne the FED in their last meeting with

Jerome Powell last fomc meeting made it

very very clear that inflation itself is

no longer the only goal driving

inflation down isn't the issue right now

because what they believe is in order to

drive inflation down they need there to

be less job openings because when you

have fewer job openings people are less

motivated to change jobs that is quit

their current job and that's not

counting retirements those are counted

separately from quits but anyway when

people are less motivated to quit their

jobs then they stay at their current

jobs and we know that quits and then

getting a new job usually leads to wages

going up not always depends on the

market but if less people are quitting

then less people are moving to new jobs

potentially or likely getting more pay

and getting more pay means we're seeing

wage inflation and that's exactly what

the FED has decided uh-oh we really need

to stop this wage inflation because we

could create a wage price spiral now if

you've been watching my channel since at

least this January where I first said

we're about to go through a hellish 2022

and I did some selling okay no shame at

that but I got a super restore potion

here

um you know I said look the biggest

danger we have in the market is a wage

price spiral and generally a wage price

spiral occurs when the rate of wage

gains is higher than the rate of

inflation say my cup is where inflation

is if wage gains are here we got a

problem in January we had wage gains

that were higher they were later revised

down but they were higher than inflation

it's like oh my gosh this is the start

right

but then what ended up happening this

last meeting is the Fed made us realize

that hey look inflation might be at

eight percent and job inflation might be

at six and a half percent let's just say

right I think inflation like 8.3 or

whatever but anyway but if inflation

Falls quickly to say five percent and

job or wage inflation is still at six or

seven percent

we have a wage spiral a wage spiral is

where what people demand for pay goes up

so they get paid more that increases

costs for businesses when costs for

businesses go up they have to raise

their prices which they can do as long

as they have purchase or pricing power

and then they raise their prices but

then things get more expensive so

employees start demanding more pay and

and you kind of get this stair-stepping

increasing of wages products going up

wages products and services going up

right and you get these price increases

that only works until something breaks

generally the first thing that breaks is

people's PP goes away that is the

pricing power that companies have goes

down so there's a limit and when wages

are going up and pricing power like you

can't raise prices anymore because

you're maxed out on your consumers and

pricing power goes down or you start

cutting and you see this what you're

really doing is compressing company

margins they're profits right and so the

FED made it really clear that look we

might actually see wage inflation so

surpass regular inflation and that's

really really bad so we are

flip-flopping again and by flip-flopping

again what we're going to do is we are

now going to say that the most important

thing going forward is jobs

well what's interesting is we got some

jobs data this morning and I'm saying

that as you see me hold the newspaper

which implies that it's old news and

that's somewhat true because the job

status that we're going to talk about is

not in this newspaper but there's

something else that's in this newspaper

this is the New York Times by the way

they don't like me okay they call me a

landlord influencer I like to bag on me

uh I'm not even a landlord right now I

do have a real estate startup that will

be a landlord househack.com if you're an

accredited investor check it out go to

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free call options if you join by the end

of the month so check that out send in

your CPA or attorney letter or get an

accredited investor letter at

househack.investready.com okay so I'm

going to read you some parts of this

because it's really really important to

help us understand could we potentially

be at a bottom of the market where the

market is now saying okay well the

pressure on the FED to keep being so

aggressive is starting to go away that

means the fed's more likely to U-turn

which means maybe we'll align with the

bottom of the market because remember

the bottom of the market almost always

at least historically has aligned with

when the fed's u-turned 89 2003 uh

February of 2009 December 2018 and March

of 2020. those were all fed u-turns

those were all the bottom of the markets

now because we're so aware of that we're

trying to price in the bottom before the

FED actually u-turns so it wouldn't

surprise me that the Market's already 10

higher when the FED actually u-turns but

anyway well and that's why we spent so

much time studying like all right well

what how are things changing right so

listen to this

uh and I'm just gonna read this like

some little Parts here so here's a home

furnishing companies uh company that

last year in North Carolina was so

desperate to hire people to basically

paid for a billboard and offered one

thousand dollar signing bonuses uh and

uh and and they were trying to ramp up

their hiring right but they couldn't

find anyone in fact they said we just

couldn't get labor fast enough uh and

and the reason for that is because

people were leaving to other jobs uh

which generally when people leave to

other jobs they get paid more money now

this furniture company says quote no one

is really chasing employees to the

dollar anymore uh now they do go on to

say here that the labor markets

obviously sell strong but it's actually

getting a lot easier to uh find people

and less people are quitting and this is

going to align with some of the numbers

that we see this morning which is really

really cool uh but we also know that

obviously like Facebook and Google Apple

Tesla have have either stalled High

hiring or started laying people off in

certain segments FedEx has frozen hiring

altogether and listen to this from the

article here wage growth which soared as

companies competed for workers has

slowed particularly in Industries like

dining and travel where the job market

was particularly hot last year the labor

force grew by more than three quarters

of a million so 750 000 people in August

the biggest gain of the labor force

since the early months of the pandemic

that's a big inflection point right

because you get the biggest gains at the

beginning

some Executives expect hiring to keep

getting easier as the economy slows and

layoffs pick up

with inflation still high weaker wage

growth will mean that more workers will

find their standard of living slipping

so obviously it's not good for like

lower income workers but it's good for

the FED right because this kind of

slowdown would lead to less pressure on

the FED to keep aggressively raising

Heights High raising rates hiking rates

the decline in voluntary departures was

particularly notable because so much

recent wage growth had come from workers

with moving between jobs in search of

better pay Recent research has shown

that there's been a huge increase in

poaching companies hiring workers away

from other jobs during the recent hiring

boom but that is becoming less common

now that was actually research from the

FED Reserve Bank of Dallas and St Louis

and listen to this there are hints that

could be happening a recent survey from

another career side zip recruiter of

what could be happening is basically

less less people quitting right unless

uh less uh job openings a recent survey

from another career side zip recruiter

found that workers have become less

confident in their ability to find a job

and we're putting more emphasis on

finding a job they found secure

workers and job Seekers are feeling a

bit less bold and a bit more concerned

about the future availability of jobs

some businesses meanwhile are becoming a

bit less frantic to hire a survey of

small businesses from the national

Federation of Independent businesses

found that while many employees

employers still had open positions

fewer of them expected to fill those

jobs in the next three months in other

words there's less pressure on making

sure they absolutely fill those jobs so

this

is really good and it actually aligns

with data that we got this morning

here's what we got this morning folks

this chart is a chart of the jolts job

opening index it tells us how many job

openings there are we actually drone

Powell regularly told us that right now

uh or when we were above 11 million so

sort of in this territory right here we

had about 1.9 to two jobs available per

unemployed person

and Jerome Powell told us this summer he

wants to see that ratio to be one to one

in other words if we have 6 million

unemployed people we want the jolts to

be at 6 million

that would be a sign of less wage

inflation which would mean the FED could

take the foot off the gas in terms of

hiking rates we can relax now remember

the FED always cautions that we can't

just use one report and say that oh

that's it game over bottom of the market

is in fed is done we can't do that

because as with inflation what we

thought peaked in March didn't actually

Peak until June we thought the jolts

were going down earlier this year but

then they actually increased right let

me show you that chart again I just want

you to see because this is why it's so

important to understand like one

report's not enough see look we went

down from the peak fall fall oh no

increase and then we got our sharp

decline so the point is these numbers

can be volatile but let me give you the

numbers that came out this morning

because they're actually pretty good so

the expectation for how many job

openings we were going to have uh was 11

million 88 000 jobs

last month so 11 million 88 000 okay

last month we were about 200 000 jobs

about that at

11.239 million so what they did is they

actually looked back at last month and

revised last month down by 69 000. so

there were actually less job openings

than they thought last month

then the expectation for this month was

11 million but we actually came in at

10.

let's go finally finally we're seeing an

inflection point finally we're seeing

some signs towards the bottom now we

can't call it a bottom even though

there's so many indicators suggesting

that inflation is going to be falling so

many indicators suggesting that uh you

know commodity prices are absolutely

collapsing uh for example I was looking

at um I don't think I have it up right

now but let me see if I find it the HSBC

uh put together their global economic

Outlook and it's a really good read but

it's really really

um

uh it's really really dense but I'll

just give you a quick example of just

one of the pages here so here you know

this is just like number 30 chart 30 and

chart 31 I mean this is like I read this

kind of stuff this is literally

uh 118 pages long okay like I I don't

watch other YouTubers I just try to give

you proprietary info here and uh look at

this supply chain pressures plummeting

plummeting supply chain pressures you

can see that on the left chart there

shipping costs plummeting on the right

side they're still elevated right

they're still above where we used to be

but the point is some of these things

were that were dramatically increasing

costs uh are starting to decline now we

know that Global inflation is is still

sneaking up and that's a dangerous part

right but when that's represented by

these lines around the world right here

in chart 27

but we're starting to see and I hate

using this phrase but hope and remember

hope is not an investing strategy but

we're starting to see some sides and

it's really good

so I'm very very happy about that

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watching we'll see you next one goodbye