Big Stock Problem: *DON’T DO THIS NOW*

Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Uh, in this

video I want to give a breakdown of why

I actually think now is oddly a bad time

to sell stocks. And I know that sounds

crazy like what Kevin's saying it's a

bad time to sell stock. I I know I know.

Give me a sec. Hear me out here. Okay,

it's too noisy out here. All right,

here's the

scoop. Q1 earnings are going to be good

as we've already seen. Why would Q1 be

bad? January was full of hope. February,

March, mostly March was full of pull

forward. Of course, we're going to have

good earnings. So, we're probably going

to have good earnings for the rest of

the next four weeks. You know, Nvidia is

always late. Probably have good

earnings, especially with comments out

of Google. Hey, so far macro keeps

staying fine the way it is. We're going

to keep spending. Great.

So, if we're not expecting bad earnings

and at the same time, Donald Trump is

starting to walk back some of his tariff

negativity and he doesn't want to fire

Powell, it's no surprise that we've been

rocket shipping straight up since

Monday. Now, what's fascinating is today

we saw a little bit of a FOMO gamma

squeeze. That makes sense because this

morning to course members, I was like,

"Hey, volatility has gotten really low

on a lot of different stocks. Maybe now

is a good time for buying options

because volatility is so low, which is a

great time to usually buy options

because you want to buy options when

volatility is low. You want to sell them

when volatility is high. This is simple.

So that's what we were talking about in

the alpha report this morning. Like

everything's freaking low today. Now, I

don't think anybody was expecting that,

you know, by like 8 or 9:00 a.m. we

would have a full-on gamma squeeze and

Tesla would rock it up this way. People

are also saying like Kevin, you know,

why does it make sense that Tesla is

down or is is up after terrible

earnings. How does it not make sense? Of

course, it makes sense. All the bad news

got priced in when Tesla fell from 488

down to

220. Now, that doesn't mean I think in

the near term there won't be other lows.

Obviously, if you're in this very long

term, you don't care about the

fluctuations, great. Buy the dip.

Perfect. It's made

money. There will probably be other buy

the dip opportunities. That's because

when do we actually think poopy hits the

fan? Frankly, probably not until June or

July. I mean, think about this logically

for a moment. The blank ships and the

empty store shelves and us pushing

through inventory doesn't happen until

June or July. layoffs of people who

don't have any work to do in the May uh

you know port worker uh task

allocations. We're not going to see that

until June or July. And you have to get

past severance. You have to get past the

severance of the contractors, the

private contractors that get laid off.

Usually two for every one federal worker

that gets laid off. You know, a lot of

the federal workers took leave until

September paid. So, they're not actually

going to show up until October. But the

contractors might show up earlier. Uh

they might show up as soon as June or

July. And guess what? You get in July?

Q2 data. So, interestingly, now is

actually a a weirdly bad time to sell

stocks in my opinion. So, if you think

about it, why would you sell right now

when you're in a position of, "Oh, wait

a sec. We might actually end up uh just

getting more good Q1 data." And then

after we get more good Q1 data, well,

you know, poopy doesn't hit the fan

until July. So, what's what's the rush?

In other words, what I'm saying is if

you're looking to diversify and you want

to buy some house hack stock or whatever

you want to diversify into, I actually

think you could, and I'm not saying

you're not going to have volatility.

There'll be up and down days obviously.

You know, Monday could be a red giveback

day, right? But I wouldn't be surprised

for the next month until the next Fed

meeting, things are actually quite okay.

Uh we get we continue to get decent Q1

earnings. we continue to be in a, you

know, position of uh of of Donald Trump

sort of talking about lessening the

trade drama and trade warfare, which is

also good. Wish I could place this

somewhere. That'd be really nice. Uh

because that's also what's happening a

little bit right now, right? Donald

Trump is walking back some of the drama

of the trade warfare, which is totally

logical. Uh and he's getting rewarded

for that in the stock market, which he

loves talking about the stock market

when it's up, so why not? Now, there's a

downside risk. The downside risk is that

gives Donald Trump more of an ego to

actually keep tariffs up. And if he

keeps tariffs up, well, then that July

damage that we get from empty sailings

continues. So, look, if you're a

long-term buying hodler, who cares?

Don't worry. There'll be other

opportunities to buy the dip. They're

coming.

But if you're looking for some

short-term opportunities, my guess is

now is probably not the best time to

sell, you might have another 4 weeks of

legs, and it's very simple. Talk about

Donald Trump walking back some of the

tariffs, bullish. Delayed unemployment

reads,

bullish. Talk about the Fed will bail us

out if they need to, even though that's

not going to happen probably until

September. Just the talk or assumption

of it, bullish. Q2 earnings. Dude, we're

not even through the first month of Q2

earnings. How are we going to get bad Q2

earnings numbers? We're not even going

to get, you know, interim reports that

are bad. Sure, some bad numbers out of

airfare. Of course, the shipping and

hiring companies are starting to see it,

but I don't know that the market broadly

prices this stuff in until later in

April. So, we might temporarily have

reached a bottom. Now, there are a lot

of bare pieces out there, and I haven't

actually been reporting on a lot of them

cuz I'm like, I don't know, man. I mean,

UBS had a horrible bear piece and there

there were actually some really good

bear pieces where like if you wanted to

make some bear porn videos, you know,

I've got a bunch of resources for you,

but I don't think it's necessary right

now because the reality is such that

hey, things might actually be quite okay

for the next uh 4 weeks here. So, pretty

optimistic about that. Lauren's pulling

up in the Tesla and uh that means I got

to go. So, I'm pretty optimistic and uh

yeah. Um obviously I get a little

pessimistic when we get to the summer.

Once we get to the summer, that's when I

think poopy dupies can hit the fan. Uh

so just be prepared for that. And uh

again, if you're long term, it doesn't

matter. If you're shorter term, that

might be something to consider. Anyway,

thanks for watching. See you in the next

one. Bye.