😱The Ugly, The Bad & The Good: Bitcoin’s Brutal 2026 Reality Check📉

Hello everybody. Thank you for joining.

It is Tuesday and the title is shocking,

but it's true. There's a lot of pain out

there and we're going to look at the

pain of exactly what's going on because

people are definitely giving up hope.

It's like

happens every time. But we're going to

look at all the data across all the

stuff that's happening in the world

across crypto, Bitcoin. There are some

very positive signs, by the way. Um,

also some ugly signs. We'll look at

other pain that's happening in other

areas of the markets, too. So, thank you

all for joining. TD, Tesla, Cypher,

Sniper, Shauny, Ka, to everybody else.

Thank you for coming. Let's go.

And I'm losing my voice already. I've

just begun. But this is a disclaimer,

not financial advice as always. Yeah,

it's been violent out there. We expected

Q1 to be bad. Not quite this bad.

Anyhow, let's get into some of the ugly

stuff first. But first, Soul Bull, I've

not had a chance to join his Patreon. If

sorry, if you have not had a chance to

join his Patreon, I would highly suggest

this. It's a great community. Thank you.

Yes, I'm just a mere cog in the wheel,

but it is a great community indeed. and

the ugly news. Let's get into it first.

First, crypto over the last seven days.

Literally everything is down.

Everything across the board other than

whatever Wolfie is, no idea. Everything

is down. And in fact, Zcash dropped

another 20%. That thing fell from Grace

ICP keeps falling. Towo,

a lot of people had hopes on tow.

Remember, if something is pumped hard,

it's never a good sign. But again, it

was an ugly week, a week to be

forgotten. Another nearly 10% off of

Bitcoin, etc.

Everything nasty out there. In terms of

the last 90 days at the last 30 days,

similar nasty. We can skip that. We're

still in the ugly section though. So, I

do want to keep Let's look at this.

Let's see what happened over the last 30

days. The previous chart was the first

week but again um all across the board

really really really bad 30 days. In

fact layer 1's got hammered. Sui

Ethereum Salana etc absolutely murdered.

Bitcoin down 25% in a month. It's very

rare that that happens. But on the other

side you got hypns

per dexes. They're killing it. Follow

the money. They're making money. People

are still trading. People are still

active. Now, we're still in the ugly

section, but I do want to talk about

this uh Anthropic plug-in disruption.

And this guy's face is everywhere. We've

been talking about him for a while, but

Anthropic announces 10 AI plugins for

investment banking, human resources,

design, and so many other tasks, and the

disruption is happening as we speak.

It is whacking things. I put this little

meme. Now I know how to make memes. But

uh it started with developers and then

SAS software stocks and then security

software stocks and then data vendors.

By the way, security software and data

vendors may be intermixed. They both

kind of happen at the same same time.

Yesterday uh Claude Anthropic Claude

Opus 4.6 said it could read cobalt. By

the way, there are there's a huge

cottage industry of developers that have

been around since I think 1957 that are

still maintaining mainframes that run

Cobalt. The companies can't turn them

off. But now, it was very difficult to

maintain these little machines, but now

Cobalt can be read by Claude and IBM

fell 18% yesterday. And next knock on

the door allegedly could be legal

technology and professional services

like consulting. In fact, the Indian

offshore firms are getting hurt hard as

well. Everybody's getting hurt.

We've been warning about the asteroid

that's going to hit the Earth. Again, I

also misjudged how quickly it would do

damage. And we're only 6 weeks into this

year and

trillions have been lost nearly. It's

shocking the pace at which this has

happened. Now, let's get into the bad

news, which is not as bad as the ugly

news, but it's still pretty bad. We are

still five red months and

just so far in the last what 24 days of

Feb, we're down 18.3%.

And I had a look, you know, thinking

over the last 16 years, how many days

have we been down? How many months in

Bitcoin's history have them down 18.3%

in a month? And the answer is 18. And

that's about 9% of the time. So, it's

bad, but it's not unprecedented. And

part of the problem is there is still no

money coming in. At least not from the

Bitcoin ETFs. You can see here 1 2 3 4 5

6 weeks of red. We had one green week

seven weeks ago, but that seems like an

eternity ago. So again, every week, $200

million floating out the door. 300

million, 300 million, 300 million, 300

million, nearly a billion. It's just

bleeding, bleeding, bleeding. And this

is, we'll get to a little point, a

little comment later that will reflect

exactly what's happening. Another view

of digital asset flows. Again, they are

in the doldrums

and 300 million out, 200 million of that

from Bitcoin approximately.

And then again that is the fifth

consecutive week. And this is by the way

all global

digital asset ETF flows which includes

things like say a Swedish ETP or some

other thing. And this is reflected sort

of but not necessarily the time in this

chart too. This is six weeks of outflows

according to this only five. Anyhow, but

this one, this chart, by the way, I want

to make sure it includes this week so

far, which includes yesterday, which was

a red day as well. Uh, this chart is

only up until the end of last week. Want

to be very clear on that, so there's no

confusion. Also flows by asset. Bitcoin

remains the key. Uh, a drainer 250

million out. Ethereum 36.5 million out.

In fact, Ethereum can't catch a break.

Vitalic has been selling aggressively

over the last few days as well. Uh

multi-asset funds down 32 and a half

million. But XRP and Salana both

positive and short Bitcoin obviously

people pile into short Bitcoin when they

are nervous they buy their insurance

that way. And another key point a lot of

people saying are we going to 30K? Are

we going to 20K? Are we going to 50K?

Are we going to break 60K? Well,

prediction markets are normally pretty

good. It's worth having a look at them

because people are spending like $5

million of real money betting on this.

So, the odds of us dipping through

60,000 in the next what 6 days is 43%.

Not 50%, so may not happen. Uh, and only

a 9% chance of us going to 55k and a 2%

chance of 50k. So for those of you who

are waiting to buy at 50k

that may not happen so be careful there.

Also final final final little chart.

This is regarding the Bitcoin ETFs. They

are the most under their cost basis ever

in the history of the ETFs. What this

chart basically means is you look at the

current price of Bitcoin and the current

price of Bitcoin is at what 64K 65K.

The average price that the ETFs have

purchased Bitcoin for is $83,000.

We did dip below their cost basis before

in July and August and September 2024,

but it's been a long time since we've

been below the cost basis. So, is it

possible to be here? Yeah. Do we stay

here for long? Not normally, but this

dip is kind of quite a lot. It's nearly

$20,000 under the cost basis. So those

people that have bought the ETFs,

they're not doubling down, which is

typically if I still have conviction in

an asset, this is where I kind of lower

my cost basis. But anyway, that's just

me, not Trefy. Now, let's get into the

good news. Thank goodness. And we're

going to look at ton of charts as well.

Uh first of all, somebody is buying. It

may not be the ETFs, but 400,000 Bitcoin

were purchased ever since Bitcoin fell

below $70,000.

That's a big bag. Remember, it'll never

be more than 15 million. So, 400,000 is

nearly call it like a 32nd of the

amount. Not bad. Also, this is the big

question because everybody is losing

hope. Either Bitcoin is dead or it's

ready to bounce. This is the twoe chart.

RSI just dropped below 40.

And on this time frame, every single

time this has happened, it has aligned

with the bottom of the market and a big

bounce follows next. But we've heard

that before. Charts are different this

time. Macro is different this time.

Everything is getting disrupted. Bitcoin

is somehow correlated to software which

is getting hammered as well. And another

chart. We're still in the good news

territory. Even though the charts are

ugly, they do paint a picture of a

bottom. And that's the point I want to

get across here. I did touch on this

briefly yesterday in DCA, but the hedge

funds and institutions have reached a

historic extreme in their net-long

exposure for Bitcoin. This they only

jump in with this heavy leverage when

they are very bullish. Again,

unprecedented. We've only been down here

one, two, three times since these things

have been alive. And while it doesn't

guarantee a straight vertical move,

historic suggestions suggest the hedge

funds know what they're doing.

Let's see. Let's see what happens.

Another interesting chart as well that

we are now at the fourth highest supply

in loss. This is a stunning number. 10

million coins are underwater.

Now, I want to again talk about this.

This shows you what a market we've been

through over the last year, year and a

half.

There will never be more than 15 million

Bitcoin and 10 million are underwater.

Which tells me that 2/3 of them have

changed hands

in the price above where we are now. 64K

65K 2/3 2/3. That's a historic amount of

Bitcoin. That's only happened three

times before in history. This is the

fourth time. And again when price tanked

you have that large amount of coins 10

million bitcoin flipped into loss. Now

uh what does that mean? Well whenever

whenever there is such a level of pain

whenever all the kind of optimists are

converting to pessimists you get a thing

called a bottom. So I took a little

green set of arrows here and I pointed

if it does correspond to a bottom. Well,

the first time it happened which was in

2018, it nailed the bottom. That is when

10 million coins were in loss. The

second time it happened was in

2019

2020. That was C19 by the way. that

nailed the bottom. March 2020. Third

time it happened was in 2022.

Again, that also nailed the bottom.

H. So, this exact setup, the supply and

loss spiking to 10 million

again has only ever happened before. And

each time it happened before, it nailed

the bottom. Will history repeat? It

hasn't so far over the last year and a

half. So, throw that in the window or

put in your pipe and smoke it. I don't

know. But it is an interesting pattern.

We shall see. And I do know that when

morale is so low,

it can be a good indicator. But we've

been through worse storms since I

started making videos. Far worse than

this. Nor are we in old season yet?

Nope. Still at 47. It's been chopping

here for like months. Don't even know if

I should bother sharing this anymore.

Anywh who, Ethereum weekly ETF flows

are down,

down, down, down again. Just like

Bitcoin, 1 2 3 4 5 6 weeks of

negativity. 50 million out yesterday in

just one day. So again, I not good.

Surprisingly though, Salona ETF flows

are up the last 3 weeks. We did have two

tiny red weeks. One you could argue was

a nothing burger. Four weeks ago, there

was a red week, but since then the money

keeps on creeping in. 8 million. Not

bad. We'll take it. And Ethereum, this

is a crazy thing because every time it's

a bare market. I remember when ETH fell

to eight or Salana fell to $8. I do

remember as well when ETH fell to 90

bucks way back in March 2020 as well,

which by the way is on this chart. That

is the

one two three the second green triangle.

That was March 2020. Perfect bottom.

Perfect bottom. So, we'll see. But even

when Salana fell to $8, the fundamentals

were getting stronger and stronger and

stronger all the time. And that same

thing is playing out right now as we

speak with Salana. If we look at the

deep pin revenue for Salana in the month

of January 2026, a new all-time high 2.6

million. Again, that's companies like

Helium, etc. Um, they're doing well.

Record number of users, record number of

transactions, record number of revenue

made across the whole blockchain and all

their DAPs. It's pretty incredible. And

what's also happening too, getting back

to the topic by the way of

this again that it hurt all these

different industries. I forgot to add a

seventh industry that's being knocked.

And this is it. This is the AI agents.

The Treadfi world that looks and

analyzes credit cards like Visa,

Mastercard, American Express, and

Capital One just realized, huh, AI

agents and crypto are coming for a large

swath of financial transactions. AI

agents will not be using credit cards.

AI agents will not be using bank

accounts. AI agents will only be using

crypto. So, at last, at last, we've been

talking about AI and crypto convergence

for a year and a half now, but now we

can actually point to it and the impact

of it, which is pretty impressive. And I

touch on this again briefly yesterday,

but how it all works.

Basically, AI agents already use major

L1s, especially Salana, and a little bit

of base, too, by the way, because

Coinbase are pushing that narrative,

too. And therefore, stable coin payments

and commerce because agents need that

fast, ultra cheap, ultra instant

finality rails for these constant micro

payments when they're spending pennies

or a dollar on something. It is very

important that it is they get less than

1 second finality and less than a

fraction and a fraction of a penny of

fees as they go forward. And again,

expect a lot more of this. The players

are here and they're doing it already.

And this will be humans will not be the

first billion to use the blockchain. It

will now be AI agents. That's my

prediction. We'll see if it works. And

this is also it looks like a negative

chart, but bear with me. It's actually a

good chart because

every time Tether shrinks,

it indicates the bottom of a bear. And

Tether has lost $3.114 billion in mark

capab 60 days. And last time it did

that, it marked the bottom of the market

as well.

We shall see. That was the bottom of the

bear in November December 2022. We'll

see if history repeats again. I keep

finding things that look very

interesting, but we'll see. Now, that

being said, this is just Tether. The

stable coin market cap for Circle USDC

has actually grown. Tether has shrunk.

Circle has grown. And guess where Circle

is minting?

The same place DPIN is playing. The same

place tokenization is happening. The

same place AI agents are processing

transactions. Soul Salana to Salana.

We're back. But the price sucks. So

that's that. So you know what to do

next. I didn't have to tell you at this

stage. You've been through this rodeo

before. Anyhow, stocks. Uh, and back

back to crypto and a final thought.

Crypto never reflects fundamentals.

Never. I was hoping one of my dreams

hopes and dreams for 2024 was that it

would. It didn't. It didn't. Anywh who,

moving on to stocks and AI. You can see

stocks mostly recovered this last week.

Nvidia up 7%. Apple up 5.48%, 48% Google

nearly 4% Microsoft down 3% Amazon up 5%

Tesla flat etc etc Broadcom up 1.5 9%

big bump in Broadcom today nearly 10%

and what's going on well we look at the

fear and greed 43 compared to the seven

or whatever it is five for crypto it's

very different now there's a couple

things happening this is a chart that is

an ugly chart but it is an interesting

chart too so a lot of are drawing lines

between Michael Sailor, Micro Strategy,

and Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio predicts the

end of the world. If he's correct about

the systemic transition and global debt

spirals, etc., Bitcoin's role as a

nonsvereign monetary asset will become

increasingly relevant. And that's kind

of what Sailor sees. And Sailor says

very clearly in interviews, he sees the

future. And however, Micro Strategy is

sitting on roughly a 5 billion

unrealized loss in its Bitcoin holdings.

And you can see they haven't been

holding a loss since again November 2022

when we know what happened then. I uh

anyway, it was it was a

that was a life-changing time. By the

way, if you had the courage to jump into

a burning building with the right option

strategy, absolutely life-changing.

Anyhow, are we here again? I don't know.

You know, does lightning strike twice? I

don't know. I'm always a little bit

conservative about that. Anyway, watch

this space. Ray Dallio is predicting

fire and brimstone. Sailor sees the same

thing. And this should eventually turn

on the Bitcoin narrative. But it's

always darkest before the dawn. We'll

see if that is true in this case. Miners

are also pivoting to AI. And people

think this is bad for Bitcoin. It's

actually not. It's good for miners

because it gives them another avenue to

not only derisk their rigs, but also

find a way to pay the bills by pivoting

a little bit to AI when the market

sucks. Like when the hash goes to the

moon and they can't afford to mine

Bitcoin when the cost to mine is 75K,

but the cost of Bitcoin is only 65K.

they lose 10k a bitcoin doesn't make any

sense but if they can use that energy

which is a bottleneck for the AI

revolution why not also a lot of FUD I

mean there was like 10,000 articles but

oh bit tier bit dear dumped their entire

Bitcoin treasury

950 Bitcoin it wasn't exactly a big part

of their business at all anyhow moving

on I hear you ask so where's the hash at

well this is the updated river hash rate

across the world Canada 2.6% 6% US

nearly 40% of global hash Paraguay due

to HP hydroelect electric power 4%

Ethiopia also HP 2.6% China 11.7% by the

way when I started making videos China

were over 40% now they're 11.7%. It

shows you how much the US Bitcoin miners

have really jumped in. Russia 16.4%.

Russia's leaprogged China very

impressive there and they know what's

up. Dubai 3.1% and Oman 2.1%.

Crazy crazy crazy world. Anyway, let's

look at some charts. First of all, AMD

did ink a big deal with Meta. Meta

spending $165 billion on AI. Ton of it

into things like hardware. Remember,

hardware is hard. In the age of AGI,

software is gone. Hardware is hard to

replicate. So, be where the chips are

at. Be where the scarcity is at. be

where the manufacturing etc of stuff is

that from Lisa Sue a huge day for AMD

and Meta as they expanded the strategic

partnership to deploy 6 gawatt of

Instinct GPUs they're the custom silicon

that AMD build for players like now Meta

and Google etc and they are very excited

to partner and AI or the Meta AI group

have very very big plans and that's why

AMD popped 10% today by the way if you

Look at this chart. This is level five

on the ATR. It has proved to be pretty

good support. We did dip below it hard

beginning of Feb and a little bit again

until the big bounce today. But

remember, looks like this thing doesn't

want to be under $200 for very long. So,

if you don't have a position, it's worth

nibbling a little bit on AMD. Nvidia

also, they have earnings tomorrow. Big

earnings expectations and it's strong

running into earnings. And again, expect

this is kind of this is funny because

literally everybody praying for an AI

bubble to burst.

Their key to that happening is for

Nvidia to miss earnings. They haven't

missed in 3 years. Will they miss? I

don't know. But the demand for their

things is insatiable. Just like we saw

with Meta, the demand for AMD Instinct

GPUs insatiable as well. And Nvidia is

looking strong going into earnings, but

Wall Street is split. Is there that

insatiable demand for the Blackwell

chips with half a trillion backlog or

are the hypers scalers pulling back? Uh,

I don't think so. I don't think so as

well. And they have Reuben coming as

well. Now, there is some concern because

of memory shortage. I think Nvidia need

to stop making their gaming chips

because they don't have enough memory.

They're saving the memory for the GPUs

for AI, but we'll see. Either way, after

the market close tomorrow, my eyes will

be on their earnings, and I hold Nvidia.

Also, Tesla, speaking of another company

bouncing along support again, $400

support for now months and months, that

red line there. Very similar to the

level five on the ATR for AMD. Very good

to if you don't have a position, think

about stacking every little dip under

400. The riskreward is very high. Again,

the one of the simplest things you can

do in TA is identify those support

levels using simple models or even just

drawing a line on your screen and you'll

see it there. Also, speaking of Tesla,

Tesla robo taxi is about to hit $400.

And this is just observed vehicles.

They've got way more than that, but this

is from the robo taxi trucker guy who

just got hired by Tesla as well because

they liked his work and it was

brilliant. So if you want to get hired

in the age of AGI, build something

unique that people love. Also,

Cybertruck, they cut the price. And this

shows you all about price elasticity. If

you ever worried about or didn't wonder

what price elasticity meant is basically

at a certain price, like $100,000,

there's a very limited market today in

this many believe like myself there's a

recession going on in many industries.

There's not a lot of demand for $100,000

truck. But if you can cut the price to

59,000, boom, sells out in a day.

Literally, all of the dual motor

all-wheel drive uh Cybert trucks were

sold out. And now, if you want one, you

got to wait till October. Ta. And that's

it. It just shows you when you cut the

price of a something like a vehicle or

something that's sought after, you

expand the total addressable market, the

TAM. And this is exactly what's playing

out here. Simply economics and

Berkshire. Talk about I do recommend

people have a good cash position in this

market at this time, but check this cash

position out. $382 billion. Berkshire

Hathaway. Warren Buffett's retired since

I think August last year. But they have

a truckload of cash and they are not

stepping into the market

again. They have enough cash to buy 480

of the S&P 500 companies. the 500

biggest companies in the world.

Berkshire could buy nearly all of them

with the exception of 20 companies.

That's how much cash they're holding.

What the hell can they buy? They got so

much cash. Even if they deploy, they're

going to spike the asset. So, uh,

whoever the new Warren Buffett is, if

you're listening,

the riskreward for buying Bitcoin

position and maybe some Tesla before it

explodes to $2,000 in the coming years,

that's it. And last time in the bare

market, I said the same thing. Warren

Buffett, if you're listening, buy Micro

Strategy and Tesla. And I was the bottom

of the bear. I think Tesla's $106. Micro

Strategy is 16. Anyway, they didn't

listen to me that time, but literally

take a 100 billion of this, drop it in

Tesla, drop it in IBIT or Micro Strategy

or Bitcoin. I don't care. And then hold

the other $300 billion.

Financial advice right there. I we'll

come back to this video like we did the

last one in a couple years and we see

exactly what what impact it would have

had on the stock. Anyway,

this is also this should have been in

the bad news section. My god, sorry it's

in the wrong area, but 13% of credit

cards are now delinquent, which is

extremely bad. If you have a debt that's

above 6 or 8% interest rate, if you have

a credit card above 15%, 20%, I

guarantee you it's probably 29%.

Sell what you can. Pay off that debt

because it will you and damage

your credit too. Now, back to Bitcoin.

If anybody had any questions, why

Bitcoin? Why hard assets? Why hard

things? Why semiconductors, etc.? Well,

look at this beautiful chart. This is

the national federal debt of the United

States growing at an unsustainable rate.

By the way, this is not unique to the

US. This is across Europe and South

America and Asia, Japan, you name it.

It's ugly everywhere. They're printing

like there is no tomorrow. 38 trillion

today, in 10 years, 60 trillion. In 30

years, 150 trillion.

If Bitcoin survives, and by the way, by

2035,

you see it's 2035 on this. 2035, 10

years. Yeah. 60 trillion in debt. In

2035,

99%

I think. Is it 99% of all Bitcoin will

be mined?

Maybe more than that. I don't know. I

need to check those numbers, but

something like that. 9 years from now,

it'll pretty much all be gone apart from

1% which will be mined over the next 105

years. So, it's going to become, it's

already super hard, but it's going to

become absolutely diamond hard, even

harder, but of course much more scarce.

I'm finishing with meme dour

classic one if you like selling puts or

buying puts the best thing about

anthropic is they don't need fundraising

they just just buy puts on the IT stocks

that they're going to disrupt before

they launch their plugin they can make a

fortune anyway hope you enjoy the show

big thank you as well to the mods in the

chat all these videos are turned into

podcasts shout out to Buckhorn DVF430

Andy Pandy GQ trader Joe Biden's daycare

swag swiper to swiping wagabone and

Swiss Guy Richie and of course Shaund D

TN and DD Cipher Sniper and everybody

else are coming. Thank you. Have a good

Tuesday. Tomorrow.

Tomorrow I'm doing something that the

Q&A questions have been flooded with a

request for me to do a video about how

many cyber cabs do I need to retire. I

will be doing the most detailed

financial analysis of that and stress

testing it. It won't be trivial to run a

fleet of cyber cabs, but it could be

very lucrative. And then I'll also

compare does it make sense to buy a

fleet of cyber cabs or just hold a

stock. Again, all those numbers will be

crunched for you. It'll be a fun one

tomorrow. Thank you all for coming. Have

a good night. Bye-bye.