Cathie’s Wood’s *Wild* Stock & Crypto Targets

now we've got to talk Kathy Wood and

what is going on with this crazy Big

Ideas pamphlet it's 65 pages long we're

just gonna look at some of the bottom

lines and comment on them but she's got

a 65 page report on her big Ideas we

already know four or her five main

Theses for all of these public

blockchain she sees a large-scale

incorporation of blockchain tech let me

be very clear about my opinion on

blockchain Tech before I keep going here

but my opinion on blockchain Tech is

very very simple it is that in the

future there's going to be no difference

between blockchain technology which is

fantastic and you turning on your water

faucet in other words it is going to

become a commoditized uh utility I don't

want to say Monopoly because I think

there will be many different utilities

and much like in your area you might be

able to get a t or Spectrum there'll be

a few big blockchains that most people

use and they can be customized for

certain purposes or companies but I

I I don't find necessarily it's

something that we can directly invest

into without a substantial speculation

premium at this point and eventually

they'll just end up lowering costs at

corporations so I think corporations

will end up benefiting most from from

blockchain utilities uh and and so

that's probably the best place to invest

to get exposure to them is when it

becomes profitable to use blockchains

companies will be all over that

efficiency

that's my take now ai of course we

expect AI to be big we'll be talking

about that here battery storage robotics

you know Tesla for example buying their

own robotics manufacturer in 2016 uh in

Germany fantastic uh multi-nomic

sequencing or multi-ohmic whatever

genomic technology great still gonna be

a while before uh we've got substantial

Gene editing going into people who are

already live uh but uh okay it's gonna

be a space to pay attention to over the

next few decades that's that's

absolutely true uh there's talk over

here

that uh smart glasses and basically

virtual reality and augmented reality

will be constrained until we get

advances in battery energy density yes

possibly but this is actually where

apple has a very interesting potential

solution

so apple is coming out with this this uh

virtual reality and augmented reality

headset and what they're actually doing

is they're detaching the battery from

your actual head and it's probably

something you'll end up putting in your

pocket and uh then unfortunately you

have a like probably a stupid lightning

cable or something going down there but

it'll increase the functionality a lot

because the last thing you want is some

kind of headset that you can only wear

for like 20 minutes and the battery's

dead

yes in the future when boundary

technology is substantially better yes

uh it'll be a lot more convenient to be

able to use these virtual reality and

augmented reality headsets personally

though I'm very excited about being able

to the Apple headset I want to play with

that because they talk about being able

to turn a wheel much like the wheel the

Apple watch has and go from a virtual

reality Vision to an augmented reality

Vision now I personally get headaches

when I use virtual reality I think the

best kind of virtual reality will be

something more like a Google Glass where

you basically look through glass and you

see the world but you get those little

Holograms or or you know heads up

displays that can pop up I like that

idea but uh TBD the the woozy glasses

that promise to do that were not were

not very good now I thought this was a

little remarkable

is that Kathy thinks we're going to

potentially see

8.5

GDP growth between 2021

through at least 20 40. if not through

2025.

that's crazy

now oftentimes I think a lot of the

projections that Kathy and Ark invest do

and I respect them a lot I agree with

her will probably exceed GDP growth

estimates uh but I think sometimes the

projections they give are designed to

make you go that's nuts and then make

people talk about it it's a great

marketing tool fantastic marketing tool

but in order to sort of showcase how

different this would be we have this

really highly manipulated graph on the

left that takes GDP growth rates going

all the way back to I kid you not 100

000 BC

before the Common Era so in other words

one hundred thousand one hundred and two

thousand twenty three years ago

is is where we go back to starting to

measure GDP

for historical context

I don't think this is the kind of

historical context we need

but anyway

Kathy believes instead of our economy is

growing at 2.6 globally they're going to

grow at 8.5 percent

this is pretty remarkable I don't think

so uh especially with a deflation uh

coming which Kathy and I agree on that

the deflation is is probably a greater

risk than inflation uh leading to

substantial more productivity with less

spending more productivity less spending

in theory should unlock more GDP growth

or just unlocks less spending and people

investing more and if people invest more

their wealth goes up which is great but

if their wealth goes up GDP doesn't

necessarily go up because the velocity

of money on investing is like one to two

whereas the velocity of money on

spending is like four to five

so if people invest more they become

richer they're able to do more with less

but they don't necessarily contribute to

GDP as much

I don't know about that and I don't like

the manipulation of the chart so I'm

gonna give a red flag on that

now I do like this I agree with Kathy

when she says that AI training costs are

declining at an annual rate of 70

percent and that now the cost to train a

language model

has gone down from 4.6 million dollars

to just 450 000 in two years

and that AI should increase the

productivity of knowledge workers by

more than 4X now there are two things

that you need to know here number one

what should you do to prevent yourself

from getting replaced by AI there's only

one thing you can do you can be a

creative that's it you have to be able

to prove that you have creative input

otherwise you will get replaced by a

robot okay the second thing to know

about this is

I and I got a lot of a lot of like a lot

of people were freaking out at me when I

was talking about house hack using AI uh

which which we will do with with human

moderation but a lot of people were

freaking out about this because they're

like Kevin

how are you gonna spend more money on AI

than Google does that doesn't make sense

you're an idiot that's the kind of crap

that I was getting in the comments and

it basically shouted to me God you know

nothing about AI because see we can

actually build our own AI using

Google's AI that's the point so the

better things like chat GPT get and the

better things like Google AI get the

easier it is for us to use their neural

Nets train them the way we want them

and then we become more efficient so AI

is not this this crazy world of

everybody trying to build their own

house right it's not like everybody's

trying to build their own little Hut and

while that companies are creating their

own little Huts a better analogy is to

think about it as like there's a massive

house and what you're really doing is

you're kind of like expanding that

you're trying to build on top of that

house like hey let's build another

add-on and let's build a second story

all right it's it's building blocks that

are that are being created would be a

better analogy like think about it as

sort of like Legos right the better

Google gets and the larger Foundation

they build the more people can build on

top by using their products and services

with uh say like a Google AI or whatever

so I actually think it's great the

better AI gets

in in Enterprise the more companies can

implement it into their own businesses

it's fantastic absolutely fantastic

so okay some PDFs here uh or some charts

here on basically things becoming less

expensive for AI Bill fine already

talked about that uh AI could lead to a

tenfold increase in productivity vendors

could capture 10 of the value created by

the products and AI Engineers could

generate up to 14 trillion in Revenue

blah blah blah okay whatever so you get

some crazy projections here on AI but

the other argument here that Kathy makes

is that she believes that

uh AI will reduce the amount of average

hours worked per day globally even more

apparently right now the average hours

worked and I didn't know this but

apparently the average hour hours worked

daily this includes like weekends and

holidays and everything is 4.7

so on average people work about 4.7

hours a day and Kathy projects this will

go down to about 4.4 and that reduction

in worked hours will probably lead to

more time spent online

more time spent online should be good

for companies like trade desk now while

she doesn't specifically mention trade

desk

she does talk about how connected TV ad

spend should grow 20 in real terms at a

compounded annual rate especially as TV

non-digital ad spend goes digital

interesting okay

now this though I thought was a little

bit of a stretch

talking about immersive virtual

experiences should Galvanize the next

wave of Gaming

and she's using this almost

metaverse-esque example to suggest that

Disneyland in California gets about 20

million at an annualized rate uh

attendees

and that

Tommy play in Roblox or Walmart land get

more like 35 million annualized visitors

okay

first of all I don't think

focusing on what children like

five-year-olds are doing on Roblox

is at all relative to families going to

Disneyland which is extremely expensive

to travel to and extremely expensive to

stay at an extremely expensive to visit

for Park tickets and extremely expensive

when you're on the inside and you want

to even just survive on food and and

drinks that you can get there and you

can't even get alcohol and most of of

Disneyland Parks which is crazy it's

like a crime but anyway beyond beyond

focusing on that crime I I don't know

that there's any value at all and

comparing the annualized attendance to

theme parks in Roblox

to real amusement parks I I don't really

think this matters at all okay Max

attends theme parks daily in Roblox and

roller coaster tycoons daily in Roblox

that has in my opinion zero to do with

our spending when we go to an actual

theme park I don't know so I'm not

really sure where that's going but then

again you know kids do spend a lot of

money on Roblox okay then we talk about

digital wallets and how digital wallets

are taking over I'm a little skeptical

about some of this data because

a lot of people have multiple digital

wallets and I'm not sure that people

having multiple digital wallets has been

accounted for and some of these charts

and I think that's a big risk factor yes

more people are getting digital with

their wallets yes cash is going down

thankfully cash is stupid you should

never spend money uh with cash unless

you're buying drugs or things that are

illegal uh beyond that I think

everything should be on a credit card

don't use debit cards and of course we

should see digital wallet growth but

then again I've got like I feel like 17

digital wallets so I'm not confident in

in some of those charts

uh I do think it's interesting you know

Kathy makes it very clear there have

been a lot of negative things that have

happened for crypto markets positive

things that have happened for markets uh

but she talks most interestingly here

about nfts highlighting the potential

for mainstream crypto demand and

could private key cryptography in the

hands of Millions

I I I don't I don't know that I support

some of these vague claims like dozens

of companies and Publishers have

announced web 3 ambitions the only

reason companies are doing that is

because it was a fad the only reason

Disney wanted to start selling uh you

know digital versions of Spider-Man

doing stupid poses on you know Vive or

whatever is because people are actually

buying that garbage and it's just a

profit opportunity I do not actually

think that nfts have any mainstream

functionality if you're just buying

poses now it's one thing if I'm going to

be able to buy an nft and and uh you

know that gives that's like my annual

pass for going to Disney fine but if the

annual pass for Disney

I don't know what it costs let's say

it's cost a thousand bucks okay let's

say the annual cost to attend a Disney

park is a thousand dollars

am I gonna pay two thousand dollars for

the nft of that annual pass hell no

would I pay a thousand twenty five

dollars and you know I I get some other

perk that I value at twenty five dollars

would I then get the nft fine but it has

to align with the the value the value

proposition has to be so great to

convince me to actually give a crap that

it really doesn't make a difference

relative to here's your annual pass card

okay great it's now on my Apple wallet

or my you know the nft part of my Apple

wall do I really think that has some

kind of potential for massive like

revenue for companies no it's just

basically moving things from a physical

thing to a digital thing like the Apple

wallet like when I go to Dave and

Buster's now I don't use the Dave

Buster's power card anymore I used to

spend so much money as a child at Dave

and Buster's and I don't understand how

my dad pulled it off because we live

paycheck to paycheck and didn't have

money to do this but it'd still take me

to Dave Busters all the time and I'd

always play at that stupid rigged game

where the little light goes around in

the circle and then you try to hit the

dot and I'd win the jackpot a lot but we

know it's rigged uh it would I I didn't

realize it was rigged then I I refuse to

play it now because I realize it's raid

but anyway thanks uh who did it Mark

Roper I think did the piece on that but

anyway

I had the gold card back then okay I

felt powerful now I just have a stupid

little digital thing in my arm whatever

all right so uh okay yeah so we know

Bitcoin is inflation resistant but this

is ridiculous to to suggest that Bitcoin

is transparent is absolutely ridiculous

we have no idea who holds what wallets

yes we can track as things move but

so the transparency argument is not

there yet unless we know uh who who

holds every wallet address there's

really little transparency especially

when you have things like which I know

tornado cash was shut down but there are

plenty of other things like tornado cash

that make it very difficult for you to

figure out what is going on on

blockchain uh yes the theory of it is

transparent but but it's somewhat

ridiculous so uh okay Bitcoin has a

durable Network Bitcoin getting to a

trillion dollar uh market cap again uh

or or yeah uh billion okay yeah and then

Bitcoin going to a million bucks a coin

the thesis of going to a billion a

million dollars a coin

is really this thesis that it's going to

take the place of gold so let's go over

here here is the price Target assumption

so the bear case is that no corporations

want to hold Bitcoin is that in the bear

case

Global remittances so sending is five

percent okay maybe because it's easier

to send money internationally fine

Emerging Market currency point five

percent maybe it's not going great for

El Salvador right now but maybe

uh Global seizure resistant asset Global

High net worth individual deposits into

Bitcoin one percent

in her bear case she believes that

Bitcoin will represent 20 of the gold

market the gold Market's like

10 trillion dollars right now

and uh the bear case for Kathy is that

by 2030 we're going to sit at uh Bitcoin

uh two trillion dollars solely because

of gold that's a 5x from where we are

now

it's not too terribly unbelievable to

think that is possible that that that's

not terribly unbelievable so that's

that's a 5x roughly four to five vaccine

market cap 20 of gold reserves in in

Bitcoin as a digital gold especially

with its inflation resistance I'll

actually give credit to that idea do we

think it'll go to Five a 50 in the uh

the bull case over here

a little more of a stretch by 2030 Maybe

by 2040 2050.

but if the other assumptions start

getting a little extreme that

potentially five percent of all

corporate cash will be in Bitcoin or

that 25 so in other words one in four

Global remittances would be done through

BTC

and ten percent of all U.S settlement

volumes going through BTC

for banking I don't think so I think

banks will use their own blockchains but

I don't think that will have anything to

do with Bitcoin or necessarily the

Bitcoin lightning Network so

I'm very skeptical of of the bull case

scenario

uh then of course we get to the idea of

pharmaceuticals need Innovation I mean

this is very true big fan of that I

think actually the biggest risk for

Pharma

is uh what kind of Regulation we get out

of controversies like the Pfizer

controversies right because think about

it

look it's obvious Pfizer exposes itself

to the potential for gain of function

research they don't call it that they

call it directed Evolution because

basically what they're doing is they're

taking viruses and

looking at hey if we infect five monkeys

with this virus which monkey has the

most contagious strand now let's take

that really contagious monkey and infect

a bunch of other monkeys with it and

then they'll take the most contagious

out of that that is called directed

Evolution but it's dangerous because

it's likely to lead to a virus that can

actually gain functions because you're

taking the more virulent strain over and

over and over again and so there's a

risk to this sort of research

of substantially new forms of Regulation

that limit the potential for businesses

like Pfizer to actually continue

conducting this sort of research now on

one hand

this is where Society has to say how

much of that kind of studying do we want

and are we okay with that kind of

research I don't know but there's a lot

of social media backlash over that which

could potentially lead to a lot of new

regulation that actually crimps the

ability of the pharmaceutical in

Industry to continue to to innovate with

with a lot of

the type of research they do now

especially when it comes to mRNA

research

we'll see I mean it seems pretty

incredible at least the potential that

mRNA could help solve things like

cancers or cardio diseases or

neurological diseases and and so it'll

be interesting but I think there's

there's definitely a regulatory risk

factor of investing all in on genomics

and and Pharma right now and personally

I know enough to know that I know

nothing about the pharmaceutical

industry

and for me if I don't understand it I'm

not going to invest in it that's just my

taking it I do think there are going to

be some really incredible new therapies

uh in the pharmaceutical and Gene

editing world I'm really Blown Away with

the stuff that you can already do right

now even just sequencing embryos to

decide hey like which which baby uh

embryo do you want to implant in an in

vitro fertilization scenario that maybe

doesn't have certain diseases uh that

that certain members of a couple have so

you know if a couple one person and a

couple has asthma you could actually

look at the embryos and go which of the

embryos doesn't have asthma and implant

that

now that's also starting to lead to

ethical concerns over hey like are we

you know engineering children uh so

these are all going to be things that

Society sort of has to deal with uh and

uh and evaluate and I'll tell you I know

way too little about the Pharma industry

to uh to be able to place bets there

so uh but I'm very curious about it

we'll see what happens I do think

regulatory concerns are going to be a

huge potential impediment uh anyway so

uh here on the electric vehicle space

Arc forecasts that electric vehicle

prices will Decline and sales will

increase at more than a 50 annual rate

to 60 million units by 2027

I'll tell you if we're going to get to

60 million electric vehicles by 2027

there's going to be nobody other than

Tesla and maybe byd that actually have

the potential to fulfill that kind of

demand that quickly uh Ford thinks

they're going to get to 600 000 Vehicles

by 2025 and I don't believe them as far

as I could throw them

I don't believe Ford at all I think

Ford's full of crap especially having

gone through their last drawings called

it's disgusting they see their biggest

they Dodge questions on margin because

they believe for their actual electric

vehicles because they don't expect

margin on electric vehicles because they

can't figure out how to be efficient in

manufacturing they expect to make lots

of money on software but then you have

to ask yourself do you really think Ford

is a software developer

it's not a bet I would make

not at all

faster charging rates projected by Arc

kind of interesting to me especially

since uh Arc suggests that EVS have

reached price parities with internal

combustion engine vehicles I believe

this uh the EV charging rate

uh so this this forecast I also think is

actually very exciting because one of

the most frustrating things with TR uh

charging right now electric vehicles is

it takes long it still takes long you

can go to a supercharger and yes the

superchargers are great but you go to

most of the regular charging

infrastructure that we have the charge

Point Chargers uh whatever uh Electrify

America Chargers these things are slow

you're not getting a substantially fast

charge at a lot of these places you're

going to when you go to a restaurant and

oftentimes you go to let's say Disney

World where they have charge Point uh

chargers for Disneyland where they have

them you're plugging this thing in

overnight so once the Stalls are taken

they're taken for a while just to charge

one of these up so that leads to a lot

of anxiety for the potential new

Adoption of EVS a lot of folks at least

anecdotally who uh or resistant to an

Eevee or worried about the potential for

being able to charge quickly and so I

agree that charging rates need to

improve and Kathy here suggests that in

the past four years charging rates have

already improved nearly threefold from

40 minutes to 15 minutes for 200 miles

of range and during the next five years

it could drop fourfold again she

projects to getting 200 miles of range

in four minutes

now that is pretty fascinating if

there's the potential we could get down

to 200 uh miles of range in just four

minutes I think EV adoption can sustain

uh this this growth that she's

projecting getting to 60 million

Vehicles over 20 by 2027 because you

need people suggesting oh I only need to

plug in for four minutes that's less

than the time it takes to fill up my my

car with gas to get you know to 300

miles of gas uh uh range at uh at a gas

station so kind of fascinating

interesting idea battery cost decline

should continue to drive exponential

growth in EV sales

yep totally agree with that

although EV sales have scaled

exponentially the consensus forecast is

linear now I think there's the potential

and and maybe she talks about it here

but there's the potential she's not

considering the supply limitations via

lithium or battery materials needed so

in other words

the Wall Street estimates or that

electric vehicles are going to grow at a

relatively stable rate where she expects

to see this essentially explosion in

electric vehicle adoption but the

limitation of Supply chains might be an

issue here that will lower the potential

for Ev adoption uh and and restrict the

Kathy Woody and projection of EV growth

and that's not really mentioned here as

a risk factor I think it should be

mentioned

all right so then uh we've got

autonomous ride hailing scaling towards

widespread commercial adoption today

autonomous ride hailing Services Delight

Riders across 15 cities internationally

okay I don't think we're close to this I

understand that in certain cities things

are perfectly mapped out but I don't

think we're mapping the world anytime

soon

and I think even though for example

Tesla's full self-driving is pretty good

you know I give it a 90 grade Tesla's

full self-driving is still not good at

seeing dips in the road

elevation changes on the road even with

the latest software update it still does

funky things like if you need this is

probably my biggest complaint with Tesla

uh full self-driving

I'll just draw it out

okay if you are on a let's say uh uh

this is a road over here this number one

lane over here is a left turn uh Lane

that uh that sort of appears so that

means you you have a curb here and then

the left turn lane appears right and

that left turn lane is just a temporary

left turn lane so you could turn left at

a traffic intersection so you've got the

number one lane here on the left the

number two lane

is your continuation of traffic lane the

number three lane is another

continuation of traffic lane and then

your number four lane is a merge lane so

it's a temporary merge lane that then

disappears it gets curved off right

and let's say the Tesla enters uh this

space from the right I have to deal with

this regularly in multiple different

areas the Tesla enters

from the right so it's in the number I

don't know three lane over here uh on

the right

the Tesla very regularly when it has to

enter uh traffic from a right term and

it needs to end up all the way on the

right on on the left so we're gonna go

from X

to X1 that's what we need to do the car

is still regularly prefers

to go into number four get up to speed

at number three Totally Miss the left

turn panic and slow down over here and

try to come to a stop to try to go over

here does this at multiple different

intersections it still has not gotten

the mentality that maybe I should wait

for traffic to clear and instead of

going into the number four lane I should

wait until traffic's clear and go all

the way over

still not doing that now I understand

that's just software we can get there

I'm just saying it's stuff like this

it's stuff like dips in the road and

it's those more complicated scenarios

that it's still not good at yet I give

it that 10 so 90 good 10 still doing a

lot of learning

uh and I think it's going to be quite a

while before we get this sort of mass

scale of autonomous taxis hopefully it's

as Arc suggests by 2026

that might be a little optimistic now

the idea that ride hailing is an 11

trillion dollar potential addressable

Market

yeah I'll agree with this I I agree that

in the future we probably won't even

have our own cars we'll just be able to

take an iPhone app and go take me from

here to here and then you can get rid of

parking lots then you can get rid of

having a car and owning a car but that's

probably still 10 plus years away

this idea is well that taxis could

eliminate sixty percent of short haul

airline flights

also somewhat interesting because

flying sucks yeah it's you know going to

the airport dealing with TSA uh and and

having to fly you know to like say Vegas

you know a a commute from here to Vegas

is about six hours

but if I need to do that through lax I'm

looking at at least an hour of a commute

to get there you got to be two hours

early I know you could show up last

minute but then it's scary and then you

get flight delays then you gotta

actually fly then you're at the airport

then you gotta get a rental car when

you're there you're not saving any time

you're still looking at a six hour

commute you may as well have just driven

it

they have an autonomous tax you could do

it if the battery ranges are long enough

hey maybe maybe

so uh and then of course we get to

autonomous Logistics Robotics and that

so it's an interesting idea

that uh as time goes on things of course

are going to become a lot more uh

autonomous and we'll see a substantial

adoption in electric vehicles and

autonomous taxis but a lot of these

projections while they're they're

clearly on the horizon I think in the

near term

are not anywhere close to us yet full

autonomous taxis me I don't I don't see

it yet until at least 2028 and Beyond uh

at least another two to three years

beyond the projections here a million

dollar Bitcoin takes some substantial uh

especially optimistic adoption hopes

that I don't think we're going to see in

blockchain uh genomics I think are going

to get really hampered by regulation

especially where we see uh sort of

Humanity right now and it's and its

willingness to allow uh pharmaceutical

companies to essentially have free reign

on genomics and and the engineering of

uh of DNA

probably going to be some regulatory

impediments in this world and I think

this is why you've got a lot of

pharmaceutical companies kind of racing

to do as much as they can now before

they start getting limited uh and then

of course we have to consider Supply

chains for Batteries uh artificial

intelligence that's probably the place I

agree with Kathy the most in that really

you can build Ai No Matter What company

you are right now using what's already

been learned in the AI space so

absolutely agree with Kathy on the AI

space

and the potential for revolution in EV

is there it's probably going to take a

little bit longer than expected though

but overall these are very good ideas

and we are moving towards a future that

is in line with Kathy's vision of the

future uh but I'm I'm not certain how

that they will come as fast as expected

if you're able to charge at home it's

not really an issue uh in terms of fast

charging yeah maybe you got to keep in

mind though a lot of people are

frustrated about the ideas of or the

idea of of buying electric vehicles

because they they a lot of folks when

they make the decision to purchase a

vehicle they think about what they might

do not what they regularly do right so a

lot of folks are like oh well what's the

range oh can I get to Vegas and back

without having to charge like these

these ideas of

The Edge case scenario surprisingly

weigh a lot in purchasing decisions now

I'm going to make this up because I

don't know this with certainty but I

wouldn't be surprised

that the range of a vehicle probably uh

is is

a purchasing factor for that has about a

30 weight I'm making that up but I would

believe that people's decision to

purchase one car over another in the

electric vehicle space 30 percent of the

decision goes into range I'm making that

up but I would not be surprised if

that's true

on the flip side

the average daily commute for people

is about 25 miles

so really round trip you don't need more

than an 80 mile battery that that gives

you you know 50 miles for your round

trip and a little bit of bonus you

really don't need more than about 80

miles of range per day for the average

user

yet I think on average most people

substantially overvalue how much range

they actually need and that's gonna take

a while and so I think Kathy's argument

that hey well as we uh have charging

Networks that are more convincing to

buyers we will be able to sell more EVS

so I that's where I agree with her on

that argument